Review of last offseason's moves

[Cuzi]

1 minute ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Gonna need you to show your work on that one.  Verlander sure, much better pitcher.  Nothing else is remotely close to that as far as I can see.

It was a discussion on PSD and I was really pushing the idea of going after Jordan Westburg who was just rotting away on the Orioles AAA roster with 700 or so PA's playing 3B.

The prices teams were paying for rental starters last season at the deadline was pretty nuts. There was 2 or 3 pitchers you could put in the "Stroman" league where it just made too much sense to trade him, but people thought he was going to opt-in.

[Bertz]

2 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

It was a discussion on PSD and I was really pushing the idea of going after Jordan Westburg who was just rotting away on the Orioles AAA roster with 700 or so PA's playing 3B.

The prices teams were paying for rental starters last season at the deadline was pretty nuts. There was 2 or 3 pitchers you could put in the "Stroman" league where it just made too much sense to trade him, but people thought he was going to opt-in.

[squally1313]

Look, if the lessons you took from the Theo regime were that we needed to make 'risky' moves like the Quintana deal or the Kimbrel signing, you are looking in all the wrong places. It'd be like watching a football team hit a 50 yard bomb for a TD and then take an excessive celebration penalty after and lamenting why your team doesn't do the excessive celebrating. Jed should, by way of emulating Theo:

• Identify minor league talent that can be acquired in trade and turn into elite talent. I think he's fine on that so far, but obviously there aren't any Rizzos or Arrietas around.
• Develop minor league talent into actual major league success. Maybe KB, Baez, and Schwarber were just better players than Wicks/Horton/Shaw/Smith, but at least some responsibility falls on the guy in charge of the organization. This also comes into play in the bullpen.
• Do a better job on the fringes of the roster so that you have Tommy La Stella and Chris Coghlan and not Hosmer and Madrigal.

These (and more) are valid criticisms. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

8 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

It was a discussion on PSD and I was really pushing the idea of going after Jordan Westburg who was just rotting away on the Orioles AAA roster with 700 or so PA's playing 3B.

The prices teams were paying for rental starters last season at the deadline was pretty nuts. There was 2 or 3 pitchers you could put in the "Stroman" league where it just made too much sense to trade him, but people thought he was going to opt-in.

Who?  Flaherty and Lorenzen didn't even bring back 45 FVs using Fangraphs midseason 2023 board. The only other 50 FV was Manzardo going for Civale, who was having a better season at a younger age and 1/5 the salary with an extra year(technically 2 since he opted out) of team control.

[Cuzi]

5 minutes ago, Bertz said:

What would you like me to get to? You bring up how bad Stroman was leading up to the deadline but fail to understand that Jordan Montgomery was worse and brought back the Cardinals #4 prospect.

[mul21]

2 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Look, if the lessons you took from the Theo regime were that we needed to make 'risky' moves like the Quintana deal or the Kimbrel signing, you are looking in all the wrong places. It'd be like watching a football team hit a 50 yard bomb for a TD and then take an excessive celebration penalty after and lamenting why your team doesn't do the excessive celebrating. Jed should, by way of emulating Theo:

• Identify minor league talent that can be acquired in trade and turn into elite talent. I think he's fine on that so far, but obviously there aren't any Rizzos or Arrietas around.
• Develop minor league talent into actual major league success. Maybe KB, Baez, and Schwarber were just better players than Wicks/Horton/Shaw/Smith, but at least some responsibility falls on the guy in charge of the organization. This also comes into play in the bullpen.
• Do a better job on the fringes of the roster so that you have Tommy La Stella and Chris Coghlan and not Hosmer and Madrigal.

These (and more) are valid criticisms. 

I think this is a tough criticism to dole out considering the lowest of the Theo picks was Baez (and Happ) at #9 while the highest pick from Jed has been Horton at #7 and it's too soon to judge that pick yet.

[Bertz]

Just now, Cuzi said:

What would you like me to get to? You bring up how bad Stroman was leading up to the deadline but fail to understand that Jordan Montgomery was worse and brought back the Cardinals #4 prospect.

The opt in/opt out decision that limited upside on any acquisition, exacerbated downside, and probably had some effect in his trade value?

[Cuzi]

Just now, mul21 said:

I think this is a tough criticism to dole out considering the lowest of the Theo picks was Baez (and Happ) at #9 while the highest pick from Jed has been Horton at #7 and it's too soon to judge that pick yet.

Baez wasn't a Theo pick.

[mul21]

1 minute ago, Cuzi said:

Baez wasn't a Theo pick.

Sure, but he was developed under the Theo regime and we all know he wouldn't have had a chance in hell of becoming a productive player under the Hendry regime so I'm counting him in the Theo bucket regardless of who picked him.

[Cuzi]

7 minutes ago, Bertz said:

The opt in/opt out decision that limited upside on any acquisition, exacerbated downside, and probably had some effect in his trade value?

The opt in question never really came up prior to the deadline. He had like 3 bad starts leading up the deadline. Still better than Montgomery and Lance Lynn who brought back pretty nice packages.

Edited October 17, 2024 by Cuzi

[Bertz]

4 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

The opt in question never really came up prior to the deadline. He had like 3 bad starts leading up the deadline. Still better than Montgomery and Lance Lynn who brought back pretty nice packages.

https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2023/07/27/marcus-stromans-performance-blip-and-the-impact-it-has-on-the-cubs-trade-deadline-plans/

 

Quote

In a world where the Cubs do make some sell trades, it’s certainly fair to say that Marcus Stroman’s recent performance has put a meaningful dent in his trade value. And the fact that there were already value concerns given his opt-out, you really start to wonder what the Cubs could even get for him (probably less than the White Sox got for Lucas Giolito+ at this point, despite Stroman being the superior pitcher, right?).

Also I suggest you catch up on the guys that got moved in the Lynn/Montgomery trades.

[Cuzi]

10 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Also I suggest you catch up on the guys that got moved in the Lynn/Montgomery trades.

You want me to research what they are today vs how they were viewed at the time of the trade? I don't play that game, sorry.

Do you believe the Rays think Morel was worth it today?

Prospects succeed and prospects fail. That's the risk you take, but you are never going to celebrate the successes if you dont initially take the risk.

The reality of why Stroman didn't get traded was because in the span of like 2 weeks the Cubs went from definite selling to buying for the slight chance of backing into the playoffs.

Edited October 17, 2024 by Cuzi

[Bertz]

6 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

You want me to research what they are today vs how they were viewed at the time of the trade? I don't play that game, sorry.

Do you believe the Rays think Morel was worth it today?

Prospects succeed and prospects fail. That's the risk you take, but you are never going to celebrate the successes if you dont initially take the risk.

The reality of why Stroman didn't get traded was because in the span of like 2 weeks the Cubs went from definite selling to buying for the slight chance of backing into the playoffs.

I dunno, maybe some self awareness that the answer to "why didn't they trade Marcus Stroman for Jordan Westburg?" might be less "Jed didn't think of that" and instead be "the Orioles never put that on the table"?

[Cuzi]

2 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I dunno, maybe some self awareness that the answer to "why didn't they trade Marcus Stroman for Jordan Westburg?" might be less "Jed didn't think of that" and instead be "the Orioles never put that on the table"?

I never questioned Hoyer for not trading him for Jordan Westburg. I questioned him for not trading him at all. Westburg was simply "my guy." My dream. And I would have never guessed Westburg would turn out as good as he is today. He was simply the one guy that stood out as "this guy has the potential to solve our 3B woes and he's ready to come up the day after the trade, not 2 years from now"

Edited October 17, 2024 by Cuzi

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Jed sucks. It's science.

[squally1313]

Cubs had a 24.5% chance of making the playoffs at the trading deadline last year. I don't know, seems pretty "risky" to hold onto the established starting pitcher and go for the small playoff chance rather than dump him for minor league talent! But that's just me. 

[Rcal10]

33 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Cubs had a 24.5% chance of making the playoffs at the trading deadline last year. I don't know, seems pretty "risky" to hold onto the established starting pitcher and go for the small playoff chance rather than dump him for minor league talent! But that's just me. 

To add to your point, they lost out by 1 game. And the guy we are talking about sucked the last 6 weeks. Had he been any good they would have made the playoffs. Definitely not crazy to hold onto  him. As for this notion that they kept him for some faint hope they might back into the playoffs, see Phillies in 22’ Diamondbacks in 23’ and now Mets in 24’. All last teams in. Which, again, makes a strong case for keeping guys because you hope you back into the playoffs. And it almost worked too. At one point the Cubs had over a 90% chance of making the playoffs. Criticizing his unwillingness to trade Stroman is basically doing so in hindsight. Had Stroman been solid down the stretch and the Cubs “backed in” to the playoffs no one would be complaining that Jed didn’t take a chance. And had they dealt him there is no chance they would have gotten Westburg. 

[Stratos]

On 10/17/2024 at 1:21 AM, Cuzi said:

Theo Epstein would have absolutely been in the market for some of these recent top FA signings.

....

People talk about Jed being held back by Ricketts, but I'm pretty confident if the owners would have ok'd the money for Bryce Harper then Harper would be on the Cubs. Hoyer has yet to show anywhere near the same aggression in making the team better.

It can't be Rickett's fault when Theo doesn't sign Harper or Machado but Jed's fault when he doesn't sign Seager, Turner etc.  Jed has done quite well on longterm deals, and avoided long deals on Stroman, Bellinger which we'll probably all be thankful for.  In fact i'd say Jed has near embarrassed most of the rest of the league in the FA longterm realm.

Quote

 

Theo routinely sought out the best.

...

Theo signed Jon Lester a year before he believed the team was ready to make a real playoff push. He traded one of his best prospects for a rental closer in 2016. Then he traded Soler for another rental closer the following offseason. Then he traded 2 of his best prospects for the hottest name on the pitching market with years of control. Then he signed Craig Kimbrel to a multiyear deal.

 

Theo made some aggressive trades like Chapman, Quintana because the Cubs were in a strong competitive window.  I think the whole "Jed isn't aggressive" is overblown.  He was aggressive getting Counsell.  He's been aggressive at every trade deadline and brought back 2 of the best position players the last 2 deadlines.  He's made a ton of good trades.  I'd call him more "prudent".

[Stratos]

On 10/17/2024 at 2:45 PM, Cuzi said:

The intention of the post was to point out the risks Theo was willing to take to win. I pretty clearly stated that in the post.

Hoyer has taken zero risks so far and he's at the point of "if not now, when?"

Again, would you care to argue which is more successful at winning?

Theo also had the advantage of 3 years of tanking that nabbed 2 elite college players and 1 good college player.  We don't really know for sure if not tanking in 2022 was a Ricketts or Jed decision, but by money is on Ricketts for wanting fans in the seats to recover losses post-COVID.

Other than that I just don't see how Theo made risky moves that Jed hasn't to turn them into a winner.  The riskier moves he made were after they became a 95+ win team during their competitive window.  Jed's made a bunch of good trades including Busch, Paredes, and the guys acquired to reload the farm.

We could argue Jed should have made more prospect swaps like Busch-Ferris to speed up the rebuild since most of the guys he got in the selloff were very young.

[Cuzi]

2 hours ago, Stratos said:

It can't be Rickett's fault when Theo doesn't sign Harper or Machado but Jed's fault when he doesn't sign Seager, Turner etc.  Jed has done quite well on longterm deals, and avoided long deals on Stroman, Bellinger which we'll probably all be thankful for.  In fact i'd say Jed has near embarrassed most of the rest of the league in the FA longterm realm.

Deals? He's given out one. Singular.

Jed is not embarrassing anyone but himself. He's built a $240M roster that's 10 games behind $112M roster.

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, Cuzi said:

Deals? He's given out one. Singular.

Jed is not embarrassing anyone but himself. He's built a $240M roster that's 10 games behind $112M roster.

Seiya, Swanson, Imanaga, Taillon.

Jeds FA problem has been overpaying on the 1 to 2 year contracts for barely above replacement players, not 4+ year deals.

[Cuzi]

2 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Seiya, Swanson, Imanaga, Taillon.

Jeds FA problem has been overpaying on the 1 to 2 year contracts for barely above replacement players, not 4+ year deals.

Imanaga is on a 2 year deal with team options for the remainder and Taillon is a 4 year deal. Those are standard. Nothing long about them.

If you want to throw Seiya in, fine. But acting like he did good when negotiating a Japanese contract is, lets say... generous.

[squally1313]

4 hours ago, Cuzi said:

Imanaga is on a 2 year deal with team options for the remainder and Taillon is a 4 year deal. Those are standard. Nothing long about them.

If you want to throw Seiya in, fine. But acting like he did good when negotiating a Japanese contract is, lets say... generous.

[Cuzi]

2 hours ago, squally1313 said:

No goal posts are being moved.

I dont consider 5 years a long contract when there are 67 other contracts in MLB that surpass it in length. But if you want to consider it long then go ahead.

There's nothing long about Imanaga's contract or Taillon because neither one is going to show up on the list when you order by length. 4 years is below average length for top 20 or so FAs in a given year since the boon of these career contracts.

Edited October 19, 2024 by Cuzi

[CubinNY]

Jed should be judged by wins. The real kind, not the fantasy ones. 
 
He’s made a mediocre team window using a lot of money. But he’s also made a minor league system that mirrors the big club with several top 100 players but no top 20 players. 
 

Hes not bad or good, he’s pedestrian- mediocre, alsoran, middle of the road, nondescript, and nothing to write home about. 
 

The Cubs should do better. I don’t like that Ricketts haven't fired him and are leaving him to hang in the wind. But Tommy Boy is as milquetoast as Jed and the money is flowing. 

Edited October 19, 2024 by CubinNY