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2024 Post-MLB Draft News & Discussion Thread

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CaliforniaRaisin GOAT

CaliforniaRaisin

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https://sports.yahoo.com/4-takeaways-chicago-cubs-2024-131800821.html

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Even taking just three prep players, Kantrovitz expects the Cubs’ bonus-pool allotment to skew toward those players as much as any team. Lovich will require a “pretty substantial investment” to buy out his commitment to Arkansas. Kantrovitz credited area scout Ty Nichols for “raising the flag early” on Lovich, identifying him as one of the better bats he saw all spring, not just in high school.

The 6-foot-4 Lovich, a left-handed hitter whom Perfect Game ranked as the No. 1 outfielder and No. 3 overall recruit in Kansas, posted a .402 average, .482 on-base percentage and 1.245 OPS with eight doubles, six triples, five home runs and 15 stolen bases his senior year.

Kantrovitz said Lovich put on a show in batting practice during a predraft workout at the Cubs complex in Mesa, Ariz., shagging fly balls and participating in high-performance testing.

“We’re pretty excited to watch his body just transform in the next couple of years and hopefully have that carryover to how hard he’s hitting the ball and some power numbers too,” he said. “But he’s a pretty exciting one.”

 

craig First Round Pick

craig

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Of the 71 college hitters drafted with a 90th percentile exit velocity exceeding 107 mph

Really dumb questions.  So, 90th percentile exit velocity, that means that 10% of their in-play contact was ≥107mph, correct?  

  1. That doesn't filter between air versus ground contact, correct?  A sharp DP grounder, that will still be included, yes?  But it does filter out K's, correct?  
  2. Can EV for short grounders be measured effectively?  If guy takes a big swing and hits a ball that hits grass 10 feet from plate, can those still get measured accurately by the technology?  Or is a variably longer flight-in-air required to measure it?  
  3. Is it is general that if a ball hits ground <50 feet from plate, that those will just never have high EV anyway?  Anything on track to hit ground <50 feet will not have been barreled well enough?  
  4. How many Cubs would have big-league 90th percentile EV > 107?  
  5. 90th percentile is a nice common point.  Do you think the relative rankings would shift at all, for example, if it was EV > 101 instead of 107?  Or 80th percentile instead of 90th?  I'm assuming the same guys would rank favorably regardless?
  6. When we look at minor leaguers, how does this change with level?  Like, might the same guy who had 10% of his contact ≥107 in A- drop that to 5% and 2% as he moves up to A+ and AA pitching?
Bertz Knoxville Smokies

Bertz

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2 hours ago, craig said:

Really dumb questions.  So, 90th percentile exit velocity, that means that 10% of their in-play contact was ≥107mph, correct?  

  1. That doesn't filter between air versus ground contact, correct?  A sharp DP grounder, that will still be included, yes?  But it does filter out K's, correct?  
  2. Can EV for short grounders be measured effectively?  If guy takes a big swing and hits a ball that hits grass 10 feet from plate, can those still get measured accurately by the technology?  Or is a variably longer flight-in-air required to measure it?  
  3. Is it is general that if a ball hits ground <50 feet from plate, that those will just never have high EV anyway?  Anything on track to hit ground <50 feet will not have been barreled well enough?  
  4. How many Cubs would have big-league 90th percentile EV > 107?  
  5. 90th percentile is a nice common point.  Do you think the relative rankings would shift at all, for example, if it was EV > 101 instead of 107?  Or 80th percentile instead of 90th?  I'm assuming the same guys would rank favorably regardless?
  6. When we look at minor leaguers, how does this change with level?  Like, might the same guy who had 10% of his contact ≥107 in A- drop that to 5% and 2% as he moves up to A+ and AA pitching?

I think most of the measurement error on batted balls was on popups rather than grounders, and with hawkeye has largely been eliminated either way.  I'm also not aware of limits on GB exit velo except at the very extreme ends.  Like I've never seen a 120 on a grounder but there are 115s pretty regularly.

The 90th percentile measure is largely to eliminate outliers.  You will sometimes have a guy with 1-2 balls above a certain threshold and everything else well below, so this is meant to account for that.  There's not a ton of difference between doing like 90th or 80th, I believe Ben Clemens did an article on it, I think 90th was just what the first guy did and so it has stuck as the norm.

There is an aging curve on exit velo, I don't remember the details off hand but Lance Brozdowski had a short primer on it in one of his prospect lists for Marquee a year or two back and I remember it knocked some shine off the James Triantos apple when he was in A ball.  

CaliforniaRaisin GOAT

CaliforniaRaisin

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1 hour ago, Bertz said:

I think most of the measurement error on batted balls was on popups rather than grounders, and with hawkeye has largely been eliminated either way.  I'm also not aware of limits on GB exit velo except at the very extreme ends.  Like I've never seen a 120 on a grounder but there are 115s pretty regularly.

The 90th percentile measure is largely to eliminate outliers.  You will sometimes have a guy with 1-2 balls above a certain threshold and everything else well below, so this is meant to account for that.  There's not a ton of difference between doing like 90th or 80th, I believe Ben Clemens did an article on it, I think 90th was just what the first guy did and so it has stuck as the norm.

There is an aging curve on exit velo, I don't remember the details off hand but Lance Brozdowski had a short primer on it in one of his prospect lists for Marquee a year or two back and I remember it knocked some shine off the James Triantos apple when he was in A ball.  

90th percentile EV is supposed to have one of the highest correlations of power production from season to season of any of the main Statcast stats.

Bertz Knoxville Smokies

Bertz

Old-Timey Member
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58 minutes ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

So Southisene should sign for just shy of $1M.

Looking at slot values, they're essentially valuing Southisene as an early 3rd rounder and Lovich as an early 4th.  That's fun, along with a lot of the IFAs who are progressing through the complex leagues MB should be pretty fun next year.

craig First Round Pick

craig

Old-Timey Member
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Posted
4 hours ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

So Southisene should sign for just shy of $1M.

When I did my numbers, I came up 2K shy, and I was doing some roundoffs.  My guess is Southisene is right on the dot for $1M.   

CaliforniaRaisin GOAT

CaliforniaRaisin

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Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, Bertz said:

Looking at slot values, they're essentially valuing Southisene as an early 3rd rounder and Lovich as an early 4th.  That's fun, along with a lot of the IFAs who are progressing through the complex leagues MB should be pretty fun next year.

To take it a bit further, here is the closest draft slot to each of the Cubs signings' bonus amounts:

  1. Cam Smith: bonus slot of pick 1.14 (picked 1st round)
  2. Cole Mathis: bonus slot of pick 2.54 (picked 2nd round)
  3. Ty Southisene: bonus slot of pick 3.77 (picked 4th round)
  4. Eli Lovich: bonus slot of pick 4.112 (picked 11th round)
  5. Ronny Cruz: bonus slut of pick 4.117 (picked 3rd round)
  6. Ariel Armas: bonus slot of pick 6.169 (picked 5th round)
  7. Ryan Gallagher: bonus slot of pick 7.196 (picked 6th round)
  8. Ivan Brewthowr: bonus slot of pick 7.222 (picked 7th round)
  9. Thomas Mangus: bonus slot of pick 8.236 (picked 18th round)
  10. Matt Hallbach: bonus slot of pick 10.307 (picked 10th round)

Edgar Álvarez (8th rounder) and Brooks Caple (9th rounder) each got less than Day 3 slot at $125k. Daniel Atvia (12th rounder) got $150k which is Day 3 slot.

Based on their bonus payments, the Cubs ended up drafting one 1st, one 2nd, one 3rd, two 4ths, one 6th, two 7ths, one 8th and one 10th with their pool.

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Savermetrics Prep Ball

Savermetrics

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

Southisene signed for an even $1 million per the MLB's website: 

1031x539_Draft_24_Social_Share_primary.j

favicon.png MLB Draft Tracker | MLB.com

WWW.MLB.COM
The official draft tracker of the Major League Baseball draft including ranking, schools, and draft order.

EDIT: Looks like the savings were from Mathis, who signed for $1,200 under slot.

Mathis signed for full slot. MLB's tracker does a bit of rounding, but BA has the full dollar amount at $1,681,200.

I may have butchered the math, but the Cubs should still have $515 left to spend before incurring pick penalties.

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CaliforniaRaisin GOAT

CaliforniaRaisin

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Savermetrics said:

Mathis signed for full slot. MLB's tracker does a bit of rounding, but BA has the full dollar amount at $1,681,200.

I may have butchered the math, but the Cubs should still have $515 left to spend before incurring pick penalties.

Thanks for all your work!

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Named After Maddux Draft Eligible

Named After Maddux

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Some Cubs scouting developments that we should hear more about soon.

The Cubs have a new area scout in So. Texas, Louisiana in Jahli Hendricks who gets a promotion from video scout.

Cubs have two national crosscheckers departing.

A few weeks ago they parted ways with Ron Tostensen, who was with the team for over two decades. The next one was more unexpected, as Marti Wolever is leaving for a Senior Advisor position with the Marlins. Marti was great and I'll admit it wasn't surprising to see him leave at some point. He is a former scouting director himself so those individuals are always in demand. Though it was disappointing. We took in a game 

Not saying this is all doom and gloom. Baseball jobs change and individuals change organization. Really qualified people can still not mesh with the direction of a club. This leaves the organization with a mix of folks who tackle the national side. Bobby Filotei (special assistant), Ted Lilly (on the pitching side), Jaron Madison (cross checker), and Matt Sherman (national field coordinator) all have had a national presence. But I do wonder if they try to find another crosschecker to add back into the mix and replace Wolever. 

 

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Jason Ross Myrtle Beach Pelicans

Jason Ross

North Side Contributor
Posted
Posted
34 minutes ago, Named After Maddux said:

Some Cubs scouting developments that we should hear more about soon.

The Cubs have a new area scout in So. Texas, Louisiana in Jahli Hendricks who gets a promotion from video scout.

Cubs have two national crosscheckers departing.

A few weeks ago they parted ways with Ron Tostensen, who was with the team for over two decades. The next one was more unexpected, as Marti Wolever is leaving for a Senior Advisor position with the Marlins. Marti was great and I'll admit it wasn't surprising to see him leave at some point. He is a former scouting director himself so those individuals are always in demand. Though it was disappointing. We took in a game 

Not saying this is all doom and gloom. Baseball jobs change and individuals change organization. Really qualified people can still not mesh with the direction of a club. This leaves the organization with a mix of folks who tackle the national side. Bobby Filotei (special assistant), Ted Lilly (on the pitching side), Jaron Madison (cross checker), and Matt Sherman (national field coordinator) all have had a national presence. But I do wonder if they try to find another crosschecker to add back into the mix and replace Wolever. 

 

I can't believe I hadn't realized Ted Lilly was doing the pitching side of things. Feels like I've been living under a rock. 

  • 3 weeks later...
CaliforniaRaisin GOAT

CaliforniaRaisin

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted

BA's Cubs Draft Report Card: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/chicago-cubs-2024-mlb-draft-report-card/

Best Pure Hitter: Cam Smith (1)
Best Power Hitter: Smith
Fastest Runner: Ty Southisene (4)
Best Defensive Player: Southisene & Ariel Armas (5)
Best Fastball: Brooks Caple (9)
Best Secondary Pitch: Ryan Gallagher (6)
Best Pro Debut: Smith
Best Athlete: Eli Lovich (11)
Most Intriguing Background: Cole Mathis (2) - because he was a 2-way player in college
Closest to the Majors: Smith
Best Day Three Pick (or NDFA): Lovich and Daniel Avitia (12)

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