Is Jed really safe?

[Jason Ross]

13 minutes ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

Whose fault is it then when a big ticket free agent signing doesn't pan out?  Neris being bad is absolutely on Hoyer.  Did anyone think he would be THIS bad?  No, almost certainly not, but his signing was a bit of a head scratcher from the start.

Was it? What made it a head scratcher? The Cubs needed a BP arm. They signed Neris, who had been a positive reliever for years. The xFIP suggested some luck, but the FIP was still mid-3, the K% was 28% (which was down a smidge from his career 29.6% but not massively). The velocity was fine. He had no injury history. He was worth .8 fWAR which was the same as Julian Merryweather in 2023. It's not even like Neris was getting worse as the year went on; his best month was September. And sure, I think it was clear he wasn't going to keep a 1.71 ERA, but he signed a one year deal (with a vesting option we'll likely get out of) that doesn't suggest the Cubs thought he was going to post a >2.00 ERA again.

Sometimes it's Hoyer's fault for missing things. I think it was Hoyer's fault for signing Eric Hosmer in 2023; it was clear after the calendar turned over in May of 2022, that Hosmer was toasted and he wasn't going to approach a 105 wRC+. I think it's Hoyer's fault for signing Trey Mancini to a 1+1 deal, who had a terrible second half of 2022 and suggested athleticism-wise he was toasted. I think it's Hoyer's fault for signing Tucker Barnhart to a 1+1 deal. All of that seemed bad at the time. 

In other situations I think we can take a step back and say "well, what was he supposed to have, a crystal ball?" and I think Neris is one. There's little to suggest Neris was going to implode this bad. Computer projections didn't hate Neris. There weren't glaring issues with velocity. There weren't super-scary underlying data. Look at his Savant Page. What issues do you see in the 2023 year that suggested this implosion was coming? 

[Tryptamine]

10 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Was it? What made it a head scratcher? The Cubs needed a BP arm. They signed Neris, who had been a positive reliever for years. The xFIP suggested some luck, but the FIP was still mid-3, the K% was 28% (which was down a smidge from his career 29.6% but not massively). The velocity was fine. He had no injury history. He was worth .8 fWAR which was the same as Julian Merryweather in 2023. It's not even like Neris was getting worse as the year went on; his best month was September. And sure, I think it was clear he wasn't going to keep a 1.71 ERA, but he signed a one year deal (with a vesting option we'll likely get out of) that doesn't suggest the Cubs thought he was going to post a >2.00 ERA again.

Sometimes it's Hoyer's fault for missing things. I think it was Hoyer's fault for signing Eric Hosmer in 2023; it was clear after the calendar turned over in May of 2022, that Hosmer was toasted and he wasn't going to approach a 105 wRC+. I think it's Hoyer's fault for signing Trey Mancini to a 1+1 deal, who had a terrible second half of 2022 and suggested athleticism-wise he was toasted. 

In other situations I think we can take a step back and say "well, what was he supposed to have, a crystal ball?" and I think Neris is one. There's little to suggest Neris was going to implode this bad. Computer projections didn't hate Neris. There weren't glaring issues with velocity. 

Did we think he was going to be this bad? No. Did we think he was going to be what his peripherals suggested he was, a mid 3 ERA reliver? Yup. There's no way he should have gotten the contract he did. You could have had Robertson on a one year deal for nearly the same money. 

[Jason Ross]

6 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Did we think he was going to be this bad? No. Did we think he was going to be what his peripherals suggested he was, a mid 3 ERA reliver? Yup. There's no way he should have gotten the contract he did. You could have had Robertson on a one year deal for nearly the same money. 

There's no way that a relief pitcher who would have mid-3's ERA should get a 1 year, $9m contract? Because that's what Neris got, with a vesting option, if he gets to 60 games. I can bet heavily that the Cubs will ensure he won't get to 60 with how bad he's been. So, it's going to be a 1/$9m. What kind of contract do you think Hector Neris should have gotten?

FG crowd sourced had him at 2/$16m. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

3 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Did we think he was going to be this bad? No. Did we think he was going to be what his peripherals suggested he was, a mid 3 ERA reliver? Yup. There's no way he should have gotten the contract he did. You could have had Robertson on a one year deal for nearly the same money. 

If it was reasonable to expect Neris to be a mid-3s ERA, why is it an unforced error to not give it Robertson, who by both current performance and ZiPS is a mid-3s ERA?

[sneakypower]

it's obviously incumbent on the org to scout well enough to know what they're working with and extract good performance from a player

at the risk of repeating myself, the Brewers have an elite bullpen comprised mostly of cast-offs and afterthoughts, why did we sign a guy like that we can't figure out how to improve

[sneakypower]

i suppose if you accept that anything good that happens is because of superior processes and anything bad that happens is just unfortunate, unforeseeable bad luck, then i suppose there will never be any reason to complain about Jed's job performance

in the rapturous fawning over that fleeting top-10 offense moment it's not touched on just how lucky it was for a guy coming off 900 PA of 66 OPS+ to randomly outburst 135 OPS+ performance

[Jason Ross]

14 minutes ago, sneakypower said:

i suppose if you accept that anything good that happens is because of superior processes and anything bad that happens is just unfortunate, unforeseeable bad luck, then i suppose there will never be any reason to complain about Jed's job performance

in the rapturous fawning over that fleeting top-10 offense moment it's not touched on just how lucky it was for a guy coming off 900 PA of 66 OPS+ to randomly outburst 135 OPS+ performance

I don't think anyone here is giving Jed Hoyer the amount of praise you think they're giving him. A few posts up I brought up three signings alone that I didn't love and I fault the Cubs for not catching underlying information that suggested all three were bad. I think there is middle ground that people don't want to see on Hoyer. Sometimes it's his fault. Sometimes best laid plans go awry. I don't see much in the process to sign Neris that suggests it wasn't a fine plan that has gone poorly. I can find plenty of fault elsewhere. As with almost everything, there's layers and nuance. 

On the flip side, it feels unfair to one post before this suggest that the Cubs should be scouting pitchers who they can improve only to suggest that Bellinger, who had been poor previously, and then found success again, is luck. It can't be both. You can't want the Cubs to scout, find players they can improve and then get mad and say "well it's all luck!" when the Cubs do what you suggest. 

I also think the Cubs have done a pretty good job finding some reclamations. Julian Merryweather was a cast off. Bellinger was a cast off. Javier Assad wasn't a big prospect. Shota Imanaga was probably, on paper, the 6th or 7th best SP to most and he's been nothing but a huge win (price and outcomes). Yency Almonte was showing signs of being a win. The Cubs grabbed Michael Busch from the Dodgers; who, was, yes, a good prospect, but I don't think anyone thought he'd have the third best wRC+ at his position mid-way-through-2024. Mike Tauchman is another. To a lesser extent they've drawn value out of guys like Patrick Wisdom off the bench. He's not really a massive win, but he was free and has had more than one moment of usefulness

I'd love it if they could find even more like the Brewers. Or the Rays. Those are some great orgs that do more with less. But those are also riskier propositions. They had the patience with Trevor Megill that the Cubs didn't. Good on'em. They had the patience with Bryan Hudson that the Cubs and the Dodgers didn't have. Good on 'em! The Cubs in 2024 probably weren't in a position to just...take random stabs at former failed prospects. They went with something that felt more safe in, say, Neris. That's both the benefit of having money to spend. Sadly, Neris hasn't worked out. But I think if I asked you entering 2024 who looked better, Hector Neris of Bryan Hudson...the former was the easy answer. And I think almost any baseball org would have agreed...probably even the Brewers if they were being honest.

[Bertz]

I think two things can be true with the bullpen:

- The team has gotten absolutely boned in ways that aren't anyone's fault.  They were projected to be the #13 bullpen coming into the year, and 3 of their top 7 projected relievers have been 60 day IL victims, with their #1  pitching poorly for a month prior.  3 more of those top 8 have had 15 day IL stints.  Plus there's the ripple effects from the rotation injuries

- The group was not exactly unimpeachable coming into the year (obvious from that #13 projection).  Alzolay and Merryweather had late year injuries last year, so they certainly were at elevated risk.  Neris shouldn't be nearly this bad but his velocity and peripherals declined last year and he's had A LOT of miles on his arm so again not insane for him to go all landmine. Everyone around here also talked about the pen being an arm short heading into ST and was pining for an 11th hour Tanner Scott trade

[Jason Ross]

9 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I think two things can be true with the bullpen:

- The team has gotten absolutely boned in ways that aren't anyone's fault.  They were projected to be the #13 bullpen coming into the year, and 3 of their top 7 projected relievers have been 60 day IL victims, with their #1  pitching poorly for a month prior.  3 more of those top 8 have had 15 day IL stints.  Plus there's the ripple effects from the rotation injuries

- The group was not exactly unimpeachable coming into the year (obvious from that #13 projection).  Alzolay and Merryweather had late year injuries last year, so they certainly were at elevated risk.  Neris shouldn't be nearly this bad but his velocity and peripherals declined last year and he's had A LOT of miles on his arm so again not insane for him to go all landmine. Everyone around here also talked about the pen being an arm short heading into ST and was pining for an 11th hour Tanner Scott trade

That feels like a balanced approach to this. 

[sneakypower]

their hit rate is so low that it kinda more than negates the successes due to opportunity costs

letting Jose Cuas, Richard Lovelady, Colten Brewer, Michael Rucker, Brandon Hughes lose you countless games doesn't make it worth when a couple of them like Julian Merryweather or Mark Leiter Jr. sticks; it's so trial & error and demonstrably unrepeatable

like i'm happy to give them credit for their One Simple Trick fix of Bellinger but i'll also hold it against them for countless other players offensively backsliding under their purview

[Jason Ross]

15 minutes ago, sneakypower said:

their hit rate is so low that it kinda more than negates the successes due to opportunity costs

letting Jose Cuas, Richard Lovelady, Colten Brewer, Michael Rucker, Brandon Hughes lose you countless games doesn't make it worth when a couple of them like Julian Merryweather or Mark Leiter Jr. sticks; it's so trial & error and demonstrably unrepeatable

like i'm happy to give them credit for their One Simple Trick fix of Bellinger but i'll also hold it against them for countless other players offensively backsliding under their purview

The Brewers and the Rays have countless misses too. Abner Uribe has 14 IP this year, an ERA just south of 7. That's more innings than Brewer and Lovelady combined with the Cubs. In fact, in their 2024 bullpen alone, they've given 22 IP to Thyago Viera (-,3 fWAR), 8.1 IP to Mitch White (-.2 fWR), 2 IP to Owen Miller (-.1 fWAR), 3 IP to Jacob Junis (-.1 fWAR). Over those 35 IP, the Brewers have gotten -.6 fWAR. This doesn't include the other 52.4 IP the Brewers have given to guys like the aforementioned Uribe, Jake Bauers, Kevin Herget, Janson Junk...who have accounted for 0 fWAR. 

The point I'm making is this: if you're going to find the Bryan Hudson's and the Julian Merryweathers you're going to find more Thyago Vieras and Michael Ruckers. We just don't pay attention to the Thyago Viera's because we don't watch the Milwaukee Brewers very much, but we do notice the Michael Ruckers because we pay attention daily to the Cubs. I'm not saying that there are times the Cubs have missed, or let someone go early. Or that they're imperfect. Just that while it's easy to remember the Cubs misses, these teams have tons of misses too...you're just not really paying attention to them.

[sneakypower]

Brewers (absent their all-world closer and beautiful mind uber-manager) are sitting 2nd in WPA and we're 28th, i mean what are we even talking about here

there are teams that demonstrably know how to find and produce productive players and there are teams that really kinda don't, how is it so controversial to demand better than "they're trying"

 

[Hairyducked Idiot]

1 hour ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Was it? What made it a head scratcher? The Cubs needed a BP arm. They signed Neris, who had been a positive reliever for years. The xFIP suggested some luck, but the FIP was still mid-3, the K% was 28% (which was down a smidge from his career 29.6% but not massively). The velocity was fine. He had no injury history. He was worth .8 fWAR which was the same as Julian Merryweather in 2023. It's not even like Neris was getting worse as the year went on; his best month was September. And sure, I think it was clear he wasn't going to keep a 1.71 ERA, but he signed a one year deal (with a vesting option we'll likely get out of) that doesn't suggest the Cubs thought he was going to post a >2.00 ERA again.

Sometimes it's Hoyer's fault for missing things. I think it was Hoyer's fault for signing Eric Hosmer in 2023; it was clear after the calendar turned over in May of 2022, that Hosmer was toasted and he wasn't going to approach a 105 wRC+. I think it's Hoyer's fault for signing Trey Mancini to a 1+1 deal, who had a terrible second half of 2022 and suggested athleticism-wise he was toasted. I think it's Hoyer's fault for signing Tucker Barnhart to a 1+1 deal. All of that seemed bad at the time. 

In other situations I think we can take a step back and say "well, what was he supposed to have, a crystal ball?" and I think Neris is one. There's little to suggest Neris was going to implode this bad. Computer projections didn't hate Neris. There weren't glaring issues with velocity. There weren't super-scary underlying data. Look at his Savant Page. What issues do you see in the 2023 year that suggested this implosion was coming? 

It's kinda Jed Hoyer's job to figure things out that aren't obvious to message boarders pulling from public data.

[Jason Ross]

7 minutes ago, sneakypower said:

Brewers (absent their all-world closer and beautiful mind uber-manager) are sitting 2nd in WPA and we're 28th, i mean what are we even talking about here

there are teams that demonstrably know how to find and produce productive players and there are teams that really kinda don't, how is it so controversial to demand better than "they're trying"

 

I'm not saying that the Cubs bullpen is better than the Brewers, you're moving the goalposts (and I'm fairly sure you know you're doing that). Let's try to have a good-faith discussion. I have already given plaudits to the Brewers organization. They do great. No one here is saying the Cubs bullpen has been good or better than Milwaukee. Beyond that, we can discuss why I think the record is a bit misleading later, if you'd like, but staying within the discussion we were having (the Cubs hit-rate on reclamations), it has little bearing. 

You were complaining that the Cubs miss too often on relievers and throw games away, which suggested the Milwaukee Brewers didn't have guys they scouted come in, and suck. The Brewers have thrown, essentially, 88 IP out of their BP this year to 0 fWAR or negative fWAR relievers. I listed off about 10 guys there who have been anywhere from "not great" to "really bad". These are the same Richard Lovelady and Colton Brewer types the Cubs have tried (and failed) with in similar amounts of innings. If we want to highlight the 5 IP that Lovelady gave the Cubs, we should also point out the Thyago Viera's for Milwaukee. They're not infallible; clearly they churn through mediocre to bad relievers. That's the point of my post. Due to their relative health, they're more capable of doing that. You can dump a guy in 3 IP if you have the depth to do so. The Cubs have not had that depth when they have, at any point, 4-5 of their BP guys already on the IL. 

Comparing the '24 Cubs BP to the Brewers is probably fair in ways but also unfair in ways. If we are talking about the Cubs, three of their eight best pre-season projected arms are on the 60-man IL. The Brewers have lost Williams, but the rest of their pre-season projected BP remains largely in tact outside of Devin Williams. They entered with a better BP and haven't faced the injury issue the Cubs have. That's both something that the Brewers should get points in (constructing a better BP) but also should probably be noted; the only injuries their BP has sustained is Williams and the previously mentioned bad Uribe. Williams is a loss, but they haven't faced the sheer adversity the Cubs have had to there. I doubt, for example, they'd have the sixth best ERA if they were missing Williams, Megill, and Hudson all year, while intermittently missing a few other guys. 

[jersey cubs fan]

22 minutes ago, sneakypower said:

Brewers (absent their all-world closer and beautiful mind uber-manager) are sitting 2nd in WPA and we're 28th, i mean what are we even talking about here

there are teams that demonstrably know how to find and produce productive players and there are teams that really kinda don't, how is it so controversial to demand better than "they're trying"

 

But to Jed’s credit he really hasn’t tried yet…

[Jason Ross]

9 minutes ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

It's kinda Jed Hoyer's job to figure things out that aren't obvious to message boarders pulling from public data.

Sure! But what magical data do you think suggests outside of a Crystal Ball that could even half suggest that Hector Neris was going to turn from a pretty good reliever to, essentially, the worst reliever in baseball? I can concede that he's 35 and logged lots of innings - sometimes 35 year old relievers just fall off like that. It's a real thing, and it happens. But many of the times it happens not as a random roll of the dice. When these things happen, more times than naught, there's a trail of data that anyone can find.

I have no doubt the Cubs have powerful data; far more powerful than I can pull from. But there are times when no amount of data equates to a crystal ball and if we're going to go on the assumption that Jed Hoyer (or any GM) should be capable of predicting the future without fail, then you're simply never going to be happy with any baseball operations management ever. It seems with Neris, you're more than likely asking him to have had a crystal ball to predict that the 35 year old was just going to fall apart more so than asking him to have found any trail of data that existed. 

I've got no issues being critical of Hoyer. I've been critical in the past. I can find plenty of faults. But I think blaming Hoyer for Neris feels like "I'm mad and want to assign blame to someone" more-so than it's just the cost of doing business. Sometimes mid-30's relievers fall apart. But that's also why you stick to one year contracts, which the Cubs did (unless they allow it to vest, which feels very unlikely).

[Bertz]

10 minutes ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

It's kinda Jed Hoyer's job to figure things out that aren't obvious to message boarders pulling from public data.

I actually have a hot take I like 70% believe that now that pitch design has been more or less figured out there's not a ton of difference between what FO's know and what smarter fans know.  FO's have tracking data available from a wider variety of levels and sources, and obviously have players' health records, but otherwise....

[Jason Ross]

7 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I actually have a hot take I like 70% believe that now that pitch design has been more or less figured out there's not a ton of difference between what FO's know and what smarter fans know.  FO's have tracking data available from a wider variety of levels and sources, and obviously have players' health records, but otherwise....

I don't think you're very wrong there. The amount of things I can create, manipulate and the such with Baseball Savant,  TruMedia and Fangraphs is crazy. And I'm just some moron at home. People who are much more intelligent than me can manipulate these things to create almost any data set they could dream of. I do think most people have, at their finger tips (and if they have the understanding) the tools to find out just about anything. Or at least, anything that's so close to being the ballpark of the absolute answer that it's well within an acceptable range.

The one caveat I'd give is that I don't think defensive metrics are as reliable as, say, pitching/batting stats and I think there's a degree of "iffy" to them. I find them the best we have available and far more useful than "Well I think I saw this" kind of defensive scouting people are wont to do., but I think they're a little behind. OAA is getting very close and DRS is good...but I think they need just a bit more marinated time to really hit those levels.

[CubinNY]

Maybe Jed will quit. I would be embarrassed and raving at my staff. I'd probably pull a Bean and reflexively trade someone who was horsefeathers around in the clubhouse after a loss. 

[Eeyore]

21 hours ago, sneakypower said:

who oversees the training/stretching/biometrics programs?

This guy, I think...

https://youtu.be/Vz8qh_l0BWA?si=PlxbPxy6TO1GB57Q

[Tryptamine]

It's actually kind of amazing that Jed is willing just to go down with the ship rather than make any effort to actually improve the team. He just keeps cycling in other team's cast off relievers and the same AAAA washout position players. Then he'll make some comment about how the improvements have to come internally while ignoring the guys in the minors who might actually be able to help the team.

[Jason Ross]

6 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

It's actually kind of amazing that Jed is willing just to go down with the ship rather than make any effort to actually improve the team. He just keeps cycling in other team's cast off relievers and the same AAAA washout position players. Then he'll make some comment about how the improvements have to come internally while ignoring the guys in the minors who might actually be able to help the team.

I think this is the general issue...most teams just aren't ready to give up today. The teams who are giving up, like the A's, Rockies and White Sox don't have much to trade outside of the like, Crochet/Robert/Miller types (which isn't to say we should ignore bigger trades, just that those are the only things of interest they really have). Which then puts you in a situation where you have to force a team to trade those guys; likely by overpaying (The Mets reportedly wanted Caissie for Alsonso. We all know that's not what it'll end up costing whomever buys Alonso in July if he's traded, but goes to show where some of these teams are holding the ransom line today - even if that's still never going to happen). 

It takes two to tango and baseball teams have kind of all decided with the number of WC spots open that trading is a last moment thing. I think it's a bit silly myself, but I wonder how much can realistically be done right now outside of grabbing the Nitolli's and (Tyson) Miller's of the world and hoping they work out. Once you get in a situation where the Cubs are, you almost have to find a way to tread water until July 15th or later. 

[Bertz]

8 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I think this is the general issue...most teams just aren't ready to give up today. The teams who are giving up, like the A's, Rockies and White Sox don't have much to trade outside of the like, Crochet/Robert/Miller types (which isn't to say we should ignore bigger trades, just that those are the only things of interest they really have). Which then puts you in a situation where you have to force a team to trade those guys; likely by overpaying (The Mets reportedly wanted Caissie for Alsonso. We all know that's not what it'll end up costing whomever buys Alonso in July if he's traded, but goes to show where some of these teams are holding the ransom line today - even if that's still never going to happen). 

It takes two to tango and baseball teams have kind of all decided with the number of WC spots open that trading is a last moment thing. I think it's a bit silly myself, but I wonder how much can realistically be done right now outside of grabbing the Nitolli's and (Tyson) Miller's of the world and hoping they work out. Once you get in a situation where the Cubs are, you almost have to find a way to tread water until July 15th or later. 

I mean we just saw the Marlins trade Luis Arraez for a deal that was not exactly earth shattering.  Like yeah it might be a few weeks before the Blue Jays are willing to part with Vlad, but Jed could have absolutely grabbed a leverage reliever from the Marlins or the A's a month ago, 

[Jason Ross]

22 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I mean we just saw the Marlins trade Luis Arraez for a deal that was not exactly earth shattering.  Like yeah it might be a few weeks before the Blue Jays are willing to part with Vlad, but Jed could have absolutely grabbed a leverage reliever from the Marlins or the A's a month ago, 

I mean...maybe on Tanner Scott? I'm not trying to give Jed a pass here, but at the same time, it's really hard for us to say what the Marlins thought process is here. For example, Scott started off pretty rough this year. Through the first of May, Scott was walking more hitter than striking them out. From 2021-2022 Scott ran walk rates north of 14.7% both years. The Marlins, likely, would be holding out hope that Scott turned that walk rate around - what's the use of trading one of your few good remaining chips at his lowest point? Other teams are likely looking at 2021, 2022 and the first month of 2024 and saying "listen, I've seen this story before". So you've got a team unlikely to sell him at his low point and teams unlikely to pay the regular price too. 

Credit to Scott, he's turned it around. At the same distinction, no other team has traded for Scott either, and the Cubs aren't the only team with BP issues right now. So while we can say "Jed should have traded for Scott by now!" I think there's nuance there. 

I don't entirely disagree that the Cubs probably should have been more aggressive. I think you probably could have gotten Scott, or Hunter Harvey or something and paid a little extra from the Canario/Davis/Arias tier of prospects and been fine. We can also fault the Cubs for being one reliever short entering the season. But I can also see a world where the Marlins were being stingy on their end here, too, and Scott not being so available unless you were willing to pay for 2023 Scott with Early-2024 Scott production being your current data point.

With the A's...I think there's two leverage guys; Mason Miller and Lucas Erceg. I think Mason Miller is almost unobtainable as of today. Erceg is more attainable, but has 4.5 years of control left - I cannot imagine he's cheap, either.  

[Bertz]

20 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

But I can also see a world where the Marlins were being stingy on their end here, too, and Scott not being so available unless you were willing to pay for 2023 Scott with Early-2024 Scott production being your current data point. 

This is exactly the problem.  Every GM in the league except Preller and Dipoto is too far up their own rear worried about min/maxing and not overpaying and just let moves pass them by.  Then they do the Flanders "we've tried nothing and we're all out of ideas" routine.  It's not exclusive to Jed for sure, about 25 teams act like this, but that doesn't mean we can't criticize our guy for it.

The Cubs have traded like a dozen walk year relievers over the last 5 years.  The best return was probably Palencia for Chafin?  There's just not a lot of ceiling for a reliever trade, just pay full freight and get it over with. 

There's always this "ohhhh we can't make a trade in May the prices are outrageous" and then whenever we do see trades made in May (Arraez, Willy Adames, etc.) the prices are fine.  Like I'll buy the inflation argument for teams still vaguely in contention, but I don't buy that teams with 0% playoff odds on Memorial Day are spitting on offers 10-20% over market rate.