Is Michael Busch cutting it at 1st

[CubinNY]

The eye test says no, but I have not the time to dig into the numbers much beyond the triple slash numbers and the errors. His batted ball fielding defense looks fine, he's not so good and handling throws. How much time does he get?

Edited May 16, 2024 by CubinNY

[squally1313]

I think he's plenty valuable and has been more than productive. I'm sure you could cite his stats since his home run binge and say that he's been bad, but those games count too. 12th in wRC for 1B (with 50 PAs, 'qualified' was being weird), 8th in fWAR, though I think that's more a product of consistent ABs and not being an awful baserunner than any sort of defensive prowess. 

Also can't ignore the fact that we're going to pay him less than $1m a year through 2026 for what I think can safely be predicted as like, 2.5 fWAR. Which is a lot better than what we're paying someone like Taillon to produce the same.

The issue there is that it's yet another position where we're essentially locking in above average, certainly not elite production. I think in the aggregate it can work, assuming health, etc. But adding another 120 wRC bat to the lineup at such a premium offensive spot isn't a problem, but it's not the ideal solution in my head. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Defensively I would say these 40 games have been of the 'not good enough' variety, but unlike Morel I have a lot more optimism for Busch improving.  He was a college 1B, but he only played 22 games there as a pro prior to this year, so there's lots of opportunity for refinement in what he's struggling with(picking hops).  The fact that several of those literally hit the pocket of his glove makes me think with greater repetition he'll rise to the level of 'fine' defensively, especially since he seems like he has good range at the position.

[KCCub]

35 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Defensively I would say these 40 games have been of the 'not good enough' variety, but unlike Morel I have a lot more optimism for Busch improving.  He was a college 1B, but he only played 22 games there as a pro prior to this year, so there's lots of opportunity for refinement in what he's struggling with(picking hops).  The fact that several of those literally hit the pocket of his glove makes me think with greater repetition he'll rise to the level of 'fine' defensively, especially since he seems like he has good range at the position.

Agree with this. Busch has actually made multiple very athletic plays at 1b that made me a believer that he will eventually become better at picking the short hops. The play he made on Mastro's throw down the 1b line last night where he dove and tagged the runner was nice. It's a tough combo of where we are breaking in Morel at 3b who has a cannon but struggles throwing, paired with Busch learning on the job. Dansby hasn't helped him out this year either by short hopping more throws than normal. I have faith he'll get there and it'll pay dividends in the long run. The process of getting there has been rough however. 

[We Got The Whole 9]

Since he "broke out of his slump" with the walkoff he has been a 60 hitter with a 42% K rate/.15 BBK. I still think he needs a reset, but I don't think they would do it. He's deeply entrenched in that slump, though. Defensively he's probably gonna be fine. The team might want to get Cody more starts at 1B though.

Edited May 16, 2024 by We Got The Whole 9

[squally1313]

1 hour ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Since he "broke out of his slump" with the walkoff he has been a 60 hitter with a 42% K rate/.15 BBK. I still think he needs a reset, but I don't think they would do it. He's deeply entrenched in that slump, though. Defensively he's probably gonna be fine. The team might want to get Cody more starts at 1B though.

I don't mean to call you out specifically, but why are so many sample sizes around here just essentially 'since this guy did a good thing, but not including the good thing that he did'. If you include that game through today as your stretch, he's been a 130 wRC hitter!

[Illiterate Scholar]

I just realized Busch looks exactly like the host of Hot Ones.

[Stratos]

Give him the year at least.  If he stays in a slump that lasts a long time e.g  2 months then yes you have to play someone else while he works on adjustments.

I'm a believer that players typically play to their tools, as long as they're evaluated properly.   Short term results aren't that relevant to predict longterm success or even to evaluate a player.  Even the best players in the game can slump for a month.

Edited May 16, 2024 by Stratos

[We Got The Whole 9]

1 hour ago, squally1313 said:

I don't mean to call you out specifically, but why are so many sample sizes around here just essentially 'since this guy did a good thing, but not including the good thing that he did'. If you include that game through today as your stretch, he's been a 130 wRC hitter!

Personally it's always sort of bugged me to hear a player "finally broke out of his slump" when he hits a homer. I'm pointing it out here for that particular reason. IDK.

[squally1313]

2 hours ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Personally it's always sort of bugged me to hear a player "finally broke out of his slump" when he hits a homer. I'm pointing it out here for that particular reason. IDK.

Sure, but over his last seven games (including the home run), he’s been good, right? Going from memory now, over the last 4, he’s had a really good OBP. Over the last 2, he’s been really good. But over 6, sure, maybe you have a point? I just think it’s dicing games up in the worst possible light to get to a conclusion. 

[Hunter]

No not really.

 

Duration	AB	R	H	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Last 7 Games	20	6	4	0	1	5	11	1	.200	.360	.300
Last 15 Games	49	9	11	1	3	5	21	1	.224	.296	.40