No offense, But the offense is offensive

[CubinNY]

I was worried about the lack of slugging during the offseason. But I was told the Cubs had one of the best offensive teams in 2023. Getting Suzuki and Bellinger back will help, but this team is not built to score a lot of runs. They started the year as "patient, pick your pitch and rip" hitters. Now they are a swing early and see what happens team, 

It's obviously early. They need someone or some-two to step up and be a superstar for a few weeks. 

[Bertz]

The Cubs have been a middle of the pack offensive team despite concurrent injuries to two of their best hitters and the offense dampening effects of Wrigley in April.

There's also the fact that leaguewide offense is down by a third of a run YoY, but baseball fans have a pathology where they're not allowed to acknowledge opponent or league context.

[squally1313]

32 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

But I was told the Cubs had one of the best offensive teams in 2023.

lol ok. We were all obviously just making this up with no statistical support. 

[We Got The Whole 9]

Their biggest issue by far is fastballs. According to Statcast they are 6th worst against 4 seams and 7th worst against sinkers. I'm not sure how to parse it for velocity but clearly they really struggle against it far worse than the average team. The thing is, they only really thrive against cutters and they're middle of the pack against breaking and offspeed. Add it all up and they're a slightly better than average offense that has been sharply trending downward for several weeks.

 

Happ, Swanson, the catcher position are absolutely killing us is how I see it. Happ needs to get his HR stroke going and his numbers will blow up. Since the grand slam he's hit 183/329/200/70 with 1 double in 73 PA. Allowing far too many PA end in a walk or K and simply not being aggressive enough on pitches in the zone. Swanson is at 176/243/275/52 since his little 10 game hot start. Amaya and especially Gomes have been aboslutely atrocious. Gomes has a whopping 0:21 BBK in just 55 PA. You can't continue to play that. See what Casali or the other dude can do. They might suck equally but give it a shot. 

[CubinNY]

24 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

lol ok. We were all obviously just making this up with no statistical support. 

Past performance is not a guarantee of future success. LOLOL (one more lol than you)

[squally1313]

Just now, CubinNY said:

Past performance is not a guarantee of future success. LOLOL (one more lol than you)

But that has nothing to do with your snarky 'but I was told' they were good in 2023. They were good. Sorry they scored less than 3 runs a few times and you don't like the fact that that's just a thing that happens to everyone in baseball now. 

[Jason Ross]

1 hour ago, CubinNY said:

I was worried about the lack of slugging during the offseason. But I was told the Cubs had one of the best offensive teams in 2023. Getting Suzuki and Bellinger back will help, but this team is not built to score a lot of runs. They started the year as "patient, pick your pitch and rip" hitters. Now they are a swing early and see what happens team, 

It's obviously early. They need someone or some-two to step up and be a superstar for a few weeks. 

In the Cubs defense, they went from the 14% highest (Prior to their 16 game in a row schedule) in first pitch strike to the 7th highest first pitch strike. Teams are clearly not allowing the Cubs to be patient early in the count. The Cubs, prior to the 16 game stretch were the 4th best team in baseball when in hitter's counts. Cubs opponents have identified that they don't want to be behind in the count and have upped their first pitch strikes accordingly. When teams throw first pitch strikes, you're put in a situation where you're forced to adjust to that.

This makes sense, as well, in the context that Cubs have lost two of their best hitters over that span and were among the lowest in chase rate in baseball (8th in baseball at the time of the 16-game-in-a-row-stretch), as well.

If there's a positive, the Cubs are still top-10 in first pitch wOBA on the season, 

I think we just have to take a breath, and let things work out. Yes the offense is scuffling but these things happen. Even more so when you've got two of your best offensive weapons on the shelf and you're up against some really good pitchers. The Cubs have twice gotten the Padres, a team in the bottom-1 in xwOBA and twice gotten Darvish and Cease. That's four of six games of a bottom pitching staff and you're gritting it out against the 2nd best pitcher in baseball based on fWAR on the season and Darvish's 3.86 xFIP. That's rough.

[CubinNY]

4 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

But that has nothing to do with your snarky 'but I was told' they were good in 2023. They were good. Sorry they scored less than 3 runs a few times and you don't like the fact that that's just a thing that happens to everyone in baseball now. 

I don't know what point you are trying to make. Many people saw this coming. Hopefully when and if they get back to full strength they will be a better offense. They currently are not and it was if not predictable, a concern. 

 

[gflore34]

When will Cassie be an option?  If he is, would DH be the spot?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Things I know and/or believe to be true:

• The offense has been fine on the whole.  They are 14th in wRC+, 10th in Slugging, 11th in HR and Runs.  You hope for better out of a playoff team, but there's reason to expect that is coming, considering...
• They have faced pretty significant headwinds so far.  Their two best hitters have combined to play 50% of games, this was always considered the toughest stretch of the schedule in terms of opponent quality, and anecdotally they've drawn opponents best starters more than expected.  That said...
• Most recently they've had a rough stretch.  The last 14 days they're around 22nd/23rd in those metrics above, the above headwinds haven't helped, and couple other key contributors have slumped at poor times(possibly due to minor injury). 2.5 weeks without an off day amplifies things like small knocks and forces more usage from a bench depleted by said injuries with poorer options.
• Given the context above, I see no reason the most recent poor stretch is more predictive than the whole, especially the whole in context.  They're about to get Bellinger and Seiya back, and in the process resolve at least one of the biggest holes in the lineup(PCA's 67 wRC+).  The opponent/opposing pitcher luck may not resolve before Memorial Day, but definitionally can't continue forever.  Pending rain out shuffling, they are done with their longest stretch without an off day this season.

[mul21]

7 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

I don't know what point you are trying to make. Many people saw this coming. Hopefully when and if they get back to full strength they will be a better offense. They currently are not and it was if not predictable, a concern. 

 

The point is you're bitching about an offense that has been without its 2 best players for several weeks on top of the fact that you're ignoring the offense was actually good last year.  No, many people didn't see this coming because how can you anticipate Belli and Seiya going down at the same time plus Happ and Swanson cratering in productivity?  You're just making stuff up to fit your narrative.

[CubinNY]

1 minute ago, mul21 said:

The point is you're bitching about an offense that has been without its 2 best players for several weeks on top of the fact that you're ignoring the offense was actually good last year.  No, many people didn't see this coming because how can you anticipate Belli and Seiya going down at the same time plus Happ and Swanson cratering in productivity?  You're just making stuff up to fit your narrative.

Nope. I'm not going to go through the offseason history, but I was bitching about before the season started. 

[mul21]

1 minute ago, CubinNY said:

Nope. I'm not going to go through the offseason history, but I was bitching about before the season started. 

Convenient way out for the guy making stuff up.

[CubinNY]

Just now, mul21 said:

Convenient way out for the guy making stuff up.

lol. 

[squally1313]

10 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Nope. I'm not going to go through the offseason history, but I was bitching about before the season started. 

You were bitching about how many games we scored less than 3 runs or whatever (assuming I'm not confusing you with someone else, apologies if so), which is a stat with little predictive value but one that I guess you thought fit your narrative, and then it was pointed out that outside of Atlanta last year, pretty much all the elite teams fell into similar ranges.

Beyond that, I'm sure there was a ton of complaining because that's basically what the whole offseason conversation was, which is weird because I see us having picked up the best pitcher available for essentially pocket change, Bellinger for about $100m less than everyone else thought, and a starting first baseman with a 124 wRC with 5 years of control for two guys in the lower minors. But I guess it's all justified because Swanson and Happ have had a rough couple weeks, which has obviously tanked the team down to being tied for first place in the division. 

[Bertz]

20 minutes ago, mul21 said:

Convenient way out for the guy making stuff up.

So to be fair he was actually harping on it all offseason, but couldn't actually give any substantive reasons why.  It was very much an Andy Bernard "these muffins are bad" level of criticism.  Some nods to "inconsistency" which mostly boiled down to "well they're worse than the Braves."

[mul21]

7 minutes ago, Bertz said:

So to be fair he was actually harping on it all offseason, but couldn't actually give any substantive reasons why.  It was very much an Andy Bernard "these muffins are bad" level of criticism.  Some nods to "inconsistency" which mostly boiled down to "well they're worse than the Braves."

He was, but he was also making up the fact that they weren't good last year the entire time, which is really what I'm referencing here.  It's fairly obvious to those paying attention (and documented above) that we're in a little bit of a down offensive environment right now and that's been compounded for the Cubs by missing their 2 best offensive players.

[Bertz]

I think if you're actually coming at critiquing the offense from a place of intellectual honesty, this is what I'd focus on:

- Offense from the catcher position has been pretty dire.  Gomes looks cooked and there has been no juice from Amaya's bat.  Now power is streaky, but you do wonder if being the primary catcher will influence his strength in the box

- There are I'd say yellow flags around Happ and Swanson.  I tend to think on Happ he probably should have been IL'd around the Marlins series but held off because of the Bellinger/Suzuki injuries.  I expect he'll be fine going forward but maybe have a bit of a low season line because of baked underperformance.  Swanson's contact numbers have taken a bit of a bit, though his Statcast numbers say most of his offensive underperformance is bad luck

- The bench has been a bit of a mess.  Tauchman and Wisdom (with very curated play time) have been great while everyone else has been a dumpster fire

Overall I don't think it's anything worth being dramatic over, but they're real issues worth worrying about to various extents.  Certainly better than discussing a team having the temerity to struggle against Dylan Cease on a day where he's throwing strikes.

[CubinNY]

Apparently, some people are taking offense to the offense being offensive. It's ok. 

The point I made that others didn't like and appear to be salient at least to some degree, albeit with caveats, is that beating up on alsorans does not make the team's offense good.

Now that I've said that. I acknowledge: 1) they've faced what is likely the toughest part of their schedule relative to the completion, 2) they've played a lot of baseball over the past several weeks, and 3) Their middle-of-the-order bats have been injured. The fact that they are in first place is irrelevant. They are surviving on their starting pitching. And local trends trump historical trends every time. 

We obviously have to hope that when they get to full strength and the competition evens out the offense will take off. 

 

[mul21]

1 minute ago, Bertz said:

 

- There are I'd say yellow flags around Happ and Swanson.  I tend to think on Happ he probably should have been IL'd around the Marlins series but held off because of the Bellinger/Suzuki injuries.  I expect he'll be fine going forward but maybe have a bit of a low season line because of baked underperformance.  Swanson's contact numbers have taken a bit of a bit, though his Statcast numbers say most of his offensive underperformance is bad luck

I think it was Girardi the other day who mentioned Swanson was pulling off everything and needs to look to RF to get back on track.  This feels like a pretty pertinent observation since we've seen evidence that he's being pitched away, away, away right now.  I think the same is true for Happ and the other day he got a pitch in the zone on the outer 3rd, looked at it for a strike, then took the next pitch in a similar location back up the middle on an attempt to pull it when he likely could have hit a line drive to right if he was looking that way.

[We Got The Whole 9]

6 minutes ago, mul21 said:

I think it was Girardi the other day who mentioned Swanson was pulling off everything and needs to look to RF to get back on track.  This feels like a pretty pertinent observation since we've seen evidence that he's being pitched away, away, away right now.  I think the same is true for Happ and the other day he got a pitch in the zone on the outer 3rd, looked at it for a strike, then took the next pitch in a similar location back up the middle on an attempt to pull it when he likely could have hit a line drive to right if he was looking that way.

To me this is an issue with all of our hitters except Nico and Tauchman. None of them ever seem to sit on an outside pitch/zone and hit it with authority. We have to be near the bottom in oppo SLG, possibly last in oppo HR from RHB. Too many guys looking middle-in.

[Jason Ross]

19 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

To me this is an issue with all of our hitters except Nico and Tauchman. None of them ever seem to sit on an outside pitch/zone and hit it with authority. We have to be near the bottom in oppo SLG, possibly last in oppo HR from RHB. Too many guys looking middle-in.

The Cubs have three opposite field home runs, and the league average is four. We are tied for 18th six other teams. One of those three was hit by a RHB. The Cubs are 13th in oppo% as well. 

It's really hard to do damage opposite field.

[We Got The Whole 9]

10 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

The Cubs have three opposite field home runs, and the league average is four. We are tied for 18th six other teams. One of those three was hit by a RHB. The Cubs are 13th in oppo% as well. 

It's really hard to do damage opposite field.

Thanks for this information. Nico and Tauchman probably account for 80% of that oppo%,

[mul21]

12 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

The Cubs have three opposite field home runs, and the league average is four. We are tied for 18th six other teams. One of those three was hit by a RHB. The Cubs are 13th in oppo% as well. 

It's really hard to do damage opposite field.

I don't think there's a need to do damage to the opposite field, but taking the pitches that way when warranted is something they're not doing enough.  Eventually pitchers will get tired of getting nickel and dimed to death and have to come back inside to the power, or they miss getting all the way in and then the hitters can pounce on those pitches.

[Jason Ross]

12 minutes ago, mul21 said:

I don't think there's a need to do damage to the opposite field, but taking the pitches that way when warranted is something they're not doing enough.  Eventually pitchers will get tired of getting nickel and dimed to death and have to come back inside to the power, or they miss getting all the way in and then the hitters can pounce on those pitches.

I'm not sure they're not going that way enough, though; they're 11th in opposite field hits and 13th in opposite field%. As well, while they've been thrown to the outer half more than league average (581% vs 57.7%) they're just 13th in seeing pitches on the outer half, it isn't like they're being pitched there in some extreme way. Even looking recently...that number is 19th over their last 16 game stretch (below the league average)...so teams aren't going away from them, the inverse is occuring.  They don't seem to be in the bad quadrant here; they're one home run away from league average in oppoHR, they're slightly above league average in outer half pitches, and they're slightly above average in oppo hits and oppo%.