Article: The Chicago Cubs Had a Successful Offseason, Though Not a Glitzy One

[Matthew Trueblood]

When trying to determine whether a team should come in for criticism or praise at the end of a season or an offseason, it's important to have one or more objective standards by which to measure. By mine, the Cubs had a sufficiently strong winter.

Image courtesy of © Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Two winters ago, Jed Hoyer and his staff brought in Marcus Stroman and Seiya Suzuki on multiyear deals. Last winter, they signed Dansby Swanson and Jameson Taillon. In each offseason, they also made smaller, shorter-term, supplemental moves, like signing Mychal Givens and David Robertson before 2022 and bringing in Cody Bellinger and Michael Fulmer (while also re-signing Drew Smyly) before 2023. While those moves were (obviously) insufficient to turn the Cubs into a playoff team in either campaign, I counted both as successful offseasons.

As much as every fan base wants their teams to acquire one or three of the top five free agents in any given winter, the reality is that that's possible only in one of every two or three winters, and then only for certain teams. To be sure, the Cubs are among the teams for whom that should sometimes be possible, and we've discussed the possibility that Jed Hoyer's aversion to long-term deals with superstars will be a lasting problem at some length here. However, as I've tried to shape a consistent standard by which to distinguish successful winters from failures, I've circled back repeatedly to a very simple one: Every winter, a team should be acquiring more than one player they project to be above-average and who are under team control for multiple seasons. They should also be acquiring more than one additional player who makes them better for the coming season, without regard to whether they're a star or whether they'll be around beyond that campaign.

By that reckoning, this, too, has been a successful winter. Shota Imanaga and Michael Busch were each solid, valuable additions at non-premium prices, and the Cubs can keep them around for up to five and six years, respectively. Bellinger, Héctor Neris, and Yency Almonte are each likely to be shorter-term members of the team, but they all make the Cubs more robust for 2024, and all three could end up being around for 2025, as well.

That, obviously, does not mean that the Cubs shouldn't go make another late addition to their roster. They could use a better left-handed reliever, and they could absolutely use Jordan Montgomery or Blake Snell, as I wrote yesterday. Understanding the team's desire to maintain a balance between its present and future, though, I think the above markers are the right ones by which to judge every offseason for them, and since they checked both boxes this time around, they've had a successful winter.

Very often, especially in the modern sports media culture, we allow the perfect to become the enemy of the good. That the Cubs didn't sign Shohei Ohtani or Yoshinobu Yamamoto this winter is undeniably disappointing, because those are generational talents who would have transformed the franchise in a way that none of the players they've brought in (or brought back) do. It's also mildly frustrating that the team didn't cash in some of its trade capital for Juan Soto or Pete Alonso. Notice, though, that each of them would have fallen into the second, lesser bucket of winter acquisition anyway, and recall that the team did use a significant amount of prospect capital to land Busch, and those misses feel much more palatable.

There were enough open avenues to asserting themselves as NL Central favorites this winter that the Cubs do have to answer for the fact that they haven't done so. On balance, though, they've checked the right boxes for a third straight offseason. Do that two more times in the winters ahead, and they'll begin to see some of the longer-lasting, sustainable benefits that come from the approach, the way the Yankees, Dodgers, and Cardinals have done over the years.

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As we turn our eyes away from the winter and toward Opening Day, how would you grade the Cubs' offseason? Why? Comment below.

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[CubinNY]

They had a "Cubs" offseason. Value and flexibility are Jed's calling cards. He knows where his limits are and works within them.

[Guest234]

As they say "The proof is in the Pudding", lets take the temp about mid-May.

[Billy62]

Yeah Matt, I would be in agreement that the Cubs overall winter was decent. I was looking for a bigger splash in the free agent market, if only from the fact that we came so close to a post-season spot last season, that they would want to solidify their post-season chances with some big name talent. While I think that might have been the more popular and more expensive option for the team, maybe it might not have been the smartest. Perhaps Jed knew this. Sill, I wouldn't squawk at the addition of a couple of proven veteran arms, but then I ask myself the question of "would I be willing to trade winning a title today or tomorrow, over winning maybe several titles over the next several seasons. I know part of being a Cubs fan in January thru March, is the rationalization that all things are possible. But, we have seen the other side of the coin as well. Who remembers our trip down free-agent land with Danny Jackson? Baseball is full of intangibles. I remember after the thrilling ride in 84, the entire starting rotation going on the IR shelf in 85. Then expecting the AAA guys to duplicate the previous season. Then again the youngsters might not pan out, or worse pan out for someone else after we have given up on them. The answer? I simply do not know. Its like a poker player holding a pair of aces. Do I bet this hand or is my opponent holding three kings? Nope for this I am taking the coward's way out and say that Jed knows better and we will let it sit with him. After all, I am going to love this team either way. I always have, and something inside me says this is going to be a good year. I hope it is not just indigestion. 🙂

[Bertz]

I remember an article ~10 years ago by the now disgraced Jonah Keri talking about the Braves.  He compared their operating model to hara hachi bun, which is a Japanese teaching to eat only until you're 80% full.  The idea being that you're satisfied at that point but avoid gluttony.  From a baseball standpoint, if you're adding 10 WAR in an offseason, those first 7-8 are generally a lot less expensive than those last 2-3.  By not going that last mile you avoid bad contracts, trading prospects you shouldn't, etc.

That's something the Braves could do (and did pre Anthopolous).  It's how the Dodgers operated before this winter.  I think it's a good operating model....when you're mostly in charge of your division.  Maybe the Cubs on the backs of the army of kids win the division by like 8 games, but it feels like the team was a move short this winter.  Last year it felt like they were a move short and low and behold they missed a playoff spot by a game.  It's a risky proposition when your existing team isn't good enough to give you a ton of margin for error.

[painhertz]

Ohtani and Yamamoto were never coming to the Cubs so your disappointment is misplaced.

[Stratos]

Given the budget Hoyer had to spend I'd give the offseason an A or A-.  A bit iffy on Hendricks but I think they wanted a 1 yr guy with all the kids coming so that's fine.  Hard to imagine a better offseason on that budget. 

[Original Ivy Walls]

I think most of this analysis is a tad early by almost four weeks, but eyeballs need to be attracted, and what should be said in the slow process of the long MLB Spring Training period? 

Alas, I don't think the Cubs FO is done making changes or adding, although I don't see the easy peezy high-risk venture into the free-agent market unless the two top starting pitchers bring down their financial ambitions below $18m. The Cubs do not have the room to stay under the luxury tax trip wire, and they can shed some payroll (Smiley, but that might be only by half a salary shred; they also can subtract Wisdom & Madrigal's salaries $4.5m, bringing that to a possible $9m and still keeping $6m in current reserves for a mid-season acquisition. 

It is what it is...

But there is Cease and Bieber ($13m cost) plus some other possible TOR pitcher where a team needs to replenish their minor league prospects. Coincidentally, Cease is at $8m this year and one more year of arbitration. The Cubs also probably want to sign Cooper, so there goes most of the reserves but it can fit where there might be $2-3m left over and then might decide on going over the luxery tax tripwire. Bieber might be cheaper in prospects or a mid-season sale, lowering his cost by half to 60%. 

All in all Spring Training roster construction not complete. 

 

[Stratos]

Cooper and Dom Smith in the lineup today.  If Cooper is on the team I'd think Wisdom is traded to make roster and payroll space.

[Billy62]

On 3/4/2024 at 9:49 AM, Bertz said:

I remember an article ~10 years ago by the now disgraced Jonah Keri talking about the Braves.  He compared their operating model to hara hachi bun, which is a Japanese teaching to eat only until you're 80% full.  The idea being that you're satisfied at that point but avoid gluttony.  From a baseball standpoint, if you're adding 10 WAR in an offseason, those first 7-8 are generally a lot less expensive than those last 2-3.  By not going that last mile you avoid bad contracts, trading prospects you shouldn't, etc.

That's something the Braves could do (and did pre Anthopolous).  It's how the Dodgers operated before this winter.  I think it's a good operating model....when you're mostly in charge of your division.  Maybe the Cubs on the backs of the army of kids win the division by like 8 games, but it feels like the team was a move short this winter.  Last year it felt like they were a move short and low and behold they missed a playoff spot by a game.  It's a risky proposition when your existing team isn't good enough to give you a ton of margin for error.

Sure, the disappointment is real if you don't make the cut. I think that is the rub for the Cubs management. They are believing that some of the kids are going to make the cut and emerge as solid major leaguers. If that happens, then this team could be the odds on favorite to win the division. If not, they slug it out and remain at least competitive and we might see a repeat of last year. Good, but not good enough and bow to maybe the Reds. This is the trap with young talent. You just don't know. In the past you did this carrying two or three youngsters to gradually replace the veterans. Here, its like a quarter of the roster. But, I remain optimistic. I think this group of youngsters is far more talented than the norm, and will soon show us this on the field.

[Billy62]

Of course it has not been substantiated and I hope it is just someone's pipe dream. But the gist of it was, and of course they claimed it was already a done deal. Pete Alonso was coming to the Cubs in exchange for Jordan Wicks, Michael Busch, and Alexander Canario. First of all Alonso is in the final year of his contract and probably would enter into free agency at the end of the season. While the team has control over the other players at least for the immediate future. With the signing of Bellinger, I really don't see the need. Don't get me wrong, Alonso would look good in Cubbie blue, I just don't think the Cubs should pay that kind of price for a 1-year rental.

[Backtobanks]

2 hours ago, Billy62 said:

Of course it has not been substantiated and I hope it is just someone's pipe dream. But the gist of it was, and of course they claimed it was already a done deal. Pete Alonso was coming to the Cubs in exchange for Jordan Wicks, Michael Busch, and Alexander Canario. First of all Alonso is in the final year of his contract and probably would enter into free agency at the end of the season. While the team has control over the other players at least for the immediate future. With the signing of Bellinger, I really don't see the need. Don't get me wrong, Alonso would look good in Cubbie blue, I just don't think the Cubs should pay that kind of price for a 1-year rental.

Sounds like a pipe dream to me.  I don't think there's any way Hoyer gives up those three (with all of the years of control) for 1 year of Alonso.

[Rcal10]

18 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

I don’t even think Hoyer would move one of Wicks or Busch for a season of Alonso

Agreed

[Rcal10]

On 3/4/2024 at 10:02 AM, Original Ivy Walls said:

I think most of this analysis is a tad early by almost four weeks, but eyeballs need to be attracted, and what should be said in the slow process of the long MLB Spring Training period? 

Alas, I don't think the Cubs FO is done making changes or adding, although I don't see the easy peezy high-risk venture into the free-agent market unless the two top starting pitchers bring down their financial ambitions below $18m. The Cubs do not have the room to stay under the luxury tax trip wire, and they can shed some payroll (Smiley, but that might be only by half a salary shred; they also can subtract Wisdom & Madrigal's salaries $4.5m, bringing that to a possible $9m and still keeping $6m in current reserves for a mid-season acquisition. 

It is what it is...

But there is Cease and Bieber ($13m cost) plus some other possible TOR pitcher where a team needs to replenish their minor league prospects. Coincidentally, Cease is at $8m this year and one more year of arbitration. The Cubs also probably want to sign Cooper, so there goes most of the reserves but it can fit where there might be $2-3m left over and then might decide on going over the luxery tax tripwire. Bieber might be cheaper in prospects or a mid-season sale, lowering his cost by half to 60%. 

All in all Spring Training roster construction not complete. 

 

I hope you are right. With Taillon still not getting in a game I am beginning to worry about him a little. Wouldn’t mind seeing about Bieber. Not sure if spring has hurt Wesneski’s value at all, but if it has not I would like to see a deal for Bieber with him as the main piece. Maybe him and Wisdom. With Bieber on his last year and the guardians sure to not sign him, that may be enough. Bieber would really help the staff. And even if Taillon is fine and Wicks pitches well they can still use Bieber. Maybe they go to some sort of a 6 man staff. Plus, injuries always happen. 

[LBiittner]

6 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I hope you are right. With Taillon still not getting in a game I am beginning to worry about him a little. Wouldn’t mind seeing about Bieber. Not sure if spring has hurt Wesneski’s value at all, but if it has not I would like to see a deal for Bieber with him as the main piece. Maybe him and Wisdom. With Bieber on his last year and the guardians sure to not sign him, that may be enough. Bieber would really help the staff. And even if Taillon is fine and Wicks pitches well they can still use Bieber. Maybe they go to some sort of a 6 man staff. Plus, injuries always happen. 

I think cleveland has as good a chance to win the AL central as anyone. Bieber probably won't be available til deadline time?

For me, wesneski has little appeal. Doubt guardians do it for him being the lead piece

Edited March 7, 2024 by LBiittner

[squally1313]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/accounting-for-free-agencys-biggest-gainers-and-losers/

I don't think most of this article is particularly helpful, but wanted to include here because of the first chart, which shows that after all the back and forth, the Cubs ended up spending the 4th most money in free agency this offseason. 

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, LBiittner said:

I think cleveland has as good a chance to win the AL central as anyone. Bieber probably won't be available til deadline time?

For me, wesneski has little appeal. Doubt guardians do it for him being the lead piece

I think you are right about the Guardians possibly completing so they might not be compelled to trade Bieber. But never underestimate how cheap and lean the Guardians run their team. That said, if they could win the division this year maybe they will stick with Bjeber and just lose him for a comp pick. 

I do think you are wrong with Wesneski however. He is still young and has great stuff. If a team thinks they can harness that some, he could be of value to them. I think for 1 year of a number 2-3 pitcher he would be a fine first piece. But it does have to be on a team who doesn’t want the salary of the pitcher they are giving up and a team who cannot win in 2024. Bieber doesn’t exactly fit because the Guardians may compete. 

For me, the reason I would trade Wesneski is because right now he is not worthy of a rotation spot on a team that wants to win. And the Cubs also have several pen arms. So he will probably go to AAA to start. Which is fine for future. But they need someone better now. That is the only reason I am suggesting him. 

Any other cheap bad team wanting to get out of the last year of a deal with a decent pitcher? Off the top of my head I can’t think of anyone. 

Bottome line is they most likely go into the season as is. Wesneski pitches at Iowa and if they can correct his problem with lefties he comes up to fill in as a starter when someone goes down. 
 

 

[LBiittner]

1 hour ago, squally1313 said:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/accounting-for-free-agencys-biggest-gainers-and-losers/

I don't think most of this article is particularly helpful, but wanted to include here because of the first chart, which shows that after all the back and forth, the Cubs ended up spending the 4th most money in free agency this offseason. 

Does the Cubs total include the 50 mill of Belli's opt out?

If you exclude the 50, it puts them at 10th

 

41 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I think you are right about the Guardians possibly completing so they might not be compelled to trade Bieber. But never underestimate how cheap and lean the Guardians run their team. That said, if they could win the division this year maybe they will stick with Bjeber and just lose him for a comp pick. 

I do think you are wrong with Wesneski however. He is still young and has great stuff. If a team thinks they can harness that some, he could be of value to them. I think for 1 year of a number 2-3 pitcher he would be a fine first piece. But it does have to be on a team who doesn’t want the salary of the pitcher they are giving up and a team who cannot win in 2024. Bieber doesn’t exactly fit because the Guardians may compete. 

For me, the reason I would trade Wesneski is because right now he is not worthy of a rotation spot on a team that wants to win. And the Cubs also have several pen arms. So he will probably go to AAA to start. Which is fine for future. But they need someone better now. That is the only reason I am suggesting him. 

Any other cheap bad team wanting to get out of the last year of a deal with a decent pitcher? Off the top of my head I can’t think of anyone. 

Bottome line is they most likely go into the season as is. Wesneski pitches at Iowa and if they can correct his problem with lefties he comes up to fill in as a starter when someone goes down. 
 

 

I hope you are right about Wesi.

Edited March 7, 2024 by LBiittner

[Bertz]

I'd be shocked if the team adds another guaranteed roster spot SP.  Snell/Montgomery seem unlikely for financial reasons, any trade target will only be nominally available before July, and Lorenzen/Clevinger probably aren't enough of an upgrade over the kids to be worth it.  

I could see someone in the Eric Lauer, Brad Keller, Matt Boyd kind of mold on a MiLB deal.  If you're one of those guys you have to balance the strength of the Cubs' pitching dev vs. the strength of your competition for a roster spot.  I have liked Lauer for a while (he was basically Aldi brand Imanaga pre-injury), and I remember a fairly compelling a Twitter thread from Greg Z about Keller.

[LBiittner]

5 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I'd be shocked if the team adds another guaranteed roster spot SP.  Snell/Montgomery seem unlikely for financial reasons, any trade target will only be nominally available before July, and Lorenzen/Clevinger probably aren't enough of an upgrade over the kids to be worth it.  

I could see someone in the Eric Lauer, Brad Keller, Matt Boyd kind of mold on a MiLB deal.  If you're one of those guys you have to balance the strength of the Cubs' pitching dev vs. the strength of your competition for a roster spot.  I have liked Lauer for a while (he was basically Aldi brand Imanaga pre-injury), and I remember a fairly compelling a Twitter thread from Greg Z about Keller.

Bertz, I love your research and explanations of your findings

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

I'd be shocked if the team adds another guaranteed roster spot SP.  Snell/Montgomery seem unlikely for financial reasons, any trade target will only be nominally available before July, and Lorenzen/Clevinger probably aren't enough of an upgrade over the kids to be worth it.  

I could see someone in the Eric Lauer, Brad Keller, Matt Boyd kind of mold on a MiLB deal.  If you're one of those guys you have to balance the strength of the Cubs' pitching dev vs. the strength of your competition for a roster spot.  I have liked Lauer for a while (he was basically Aldi brand Imanaga pre-injury), and I remember a fairly compelling a Twitter thread from Greg Z about Keller.

Honestly I would be shocked too. Just saying what I would like. But the chance of any deal now is extremely low. I would like to see another pitcher added to the starting staff, however. Not comfortable with the back end when you consider Taillon and Hendricks are 3 and 4. 

[Stratos]

7 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

I hope you are right. With Taillon still not getting in a game I am beginning to worry about him a little. Wouldn’t mind seeing about Bieber. Not sure if spring has hurt Wesneski’s value at all, but if it has not I would like to see a deal for Bieber with him as the main piece. Maybe him and Wisdom. With Bieber on his last year and the guardians sure to not sign him, that may be enough. Bieber would really help the staff. And even if Taillon is fine and Wicks pitches well they can still use Bieber. Maybe they go to some sort of a 6 man staff. Plus, injuries always happen. 

I think they're done with the roster minus smaller transactions or maybe a major injury.

[Backtobanks]

18 hours ago, Bertz said:

I'd be shocked if the team adds another guaranteed roster spot SP.  Snell/Montgomery seem unlikely for financial reasons, any trade target will only be nominally available before July, and Lorenzen/Clevinger probably aren't enough of an upgrade over the kids to be worth it.  

I could see someone in the Eric Lauer, Brad Keller, Matt Boyd kind of mold on a MiLB deal.  If you're one of those guys you have to balance the strength of the Cubs' pitching dev vs. the strength of your competition for a roster spot.  I have liked Lauer for a while (he w as basically Aldi brand Imanaga pre-injury), and I remember a fairly compelling a Twitter thread from Greg Z about Keller.

Pirates signed Lauer to minor league contract.