Original Ivy Walls

If Bellinger stays, then the dominos begin. A) Suzuki is not a 90-win, starting RF'er where he needs to succeed at the DH spot. B) Moving Busch over to his more natural position at 2B, at wRC+ (109), where he appears to be an improvement over Hoerner, who is league average at wRC+ (100); what could be the value of being 28 years old and signed at $11.7m thru 2026 and WAR of 3+. That begs the question in RF: Please hope that the Cubs pony up and sign Soto to a 10-year $800m plus contract. Dream, yes, plan; all it takes is money and commitment. That means the Cubs work to bring up Shaw and Cassie and that plump catcher.

Cubs, these last couple of years, have been like the attractive girlfriend(s) (or boyfriend(s)) of your past, who are often characterized as "high maintenance. " They are seemingly always in some crisis or drama, yet you remain trapped in being attracted to them. MLB is ruled by money, which is the underlying structure of modern society, and yet we try to find a leisurely escape from that constant grind in our daily lives. My friends and family, across three generations of Cubs fans, look at it like an extended television mini-series or, as my wife describes it, as one of the permanent streaming programs on the Food or History Channels. I describe it in another generation as a summer soap opera. But I also look at seasons when they come to the final 20 or games like a business executive/investor and math head (I still teach night school mathematics and today mourn the murder of a fellow math teacher in Georgia), as numbers rule. The Cubs this year and last are a collection of good players who are difference makers—also-rans. When you look at the composite talent difference between division leaders this year and last to the Cubs, it is stark, especially with the money invested to field the marque club at the major league level. Last year, they were 1.5 games out of the division lead and twelve games over .500. Today, at game 140, they are four games over .500 and 4.5 games out of the final wild card spot with the hot NY Mets between them and Atlanta. Any critical-thinking executive worth his salt would identify this as a decline, not an advancement. Penny-wise and dollar-foolish have been the Cubs' underlying management since 2019. The Cubs straddled with injury after injury is not just a coincidence or bad luck. It is exacerbated by their approach to preparation, player development, and lack of talent (depth). As a former competitive athlete in forlorn youth now dating four decades ago, most of us knew that injuries were caused by fatigue and pushing oneself behind the limit of a capability more so than the random consequence of playing the game. This year's soap opera opening game in Texas saw the ace starting pitcher go down at the onset, trying to make a play where he was not physically ready to compete coming out of spring training; hamstring injuries don't happen, unlike broken fingers of batters. Over the last couple of years, the Cubs have had a deviation of soft tissue injuries beyond what competitive clubs have. Why? But beyond that, the Cubs have to change their strategic management approach and stop simply fielding payroll like a medium-market team. In terms of financial value, they are valued among the top five baseball teams. Still, they are unwilling to compete with New York, LA, Philadelphia, Houston, Texas, or Boston regarding difference-making talent. Sure, they appear to have a strong minor league prospect stable, but in reality, tell me who is a true difference maker instead of a good player replacement. Juan Soto is a 26-year-old free agent. At ten years, he will command Ohtani-level money. He is not Heyward; he is a future Hall of Famer. So now you have strategic decisions for us, the paying audience. (if they don't compete with the big kahunas, maybe I won't watch and attend the soap opera anymore). This would mean removing Happ from LF and club (or moving him to RF). The other move is to recognize that PCA is a future All-Star and to lock him up well beyond arbitration and the first couple of years of free agency. He is an OF anchor and is emerging as an offensive star. That leaves us on the infield. Paredes is a stopgap. Is the answer at 3B Shaw, it is a risk but it appears he can ascend. Hoerner is a fan favorite but not on a championship team. If Bellinger stays, he moves to first base, allowing Busch to go to his natural position at second base, and now offensively, the Cubs have some firepower, much of it left-handed. All this will cost money, which does not include being cheap with the bullpen.

I think most of this analysis is a tad early by almost four weeks, but eyeballs need to be attracted, and what should be said in the slow process of the long MLB Spring Training period? Alas, I don't think the Cubs FO is done making changes or adding, although I don't see the easy peezy high-risk venture into the free-agent market unless the two top starting pitchers bring down their financial ambitions below $18m. The Cubs do not have the room to stay under the luxury tax trip wire, and they can shed some payroll (Smiley, but that might be only by half a salary shred; they also can subtract Wisdom & Madrigal's salaries $4.5m, bringing that to a possible $9m and still keeping $6m in current reserves for a mid-season acquisition. It is what it is... But there is Cease and Bieber ($13m cost) plus some other possible TOR pitcher where a team needs to replenish their minor league prospects. Coincidentally, Cease is at $8m this year and one more year of arbitration. The Cubs also probably want to sign Cooper, so there goes most of the reserves but it can fit where there might be $2-3m left over and then might decide on going over the luxery tax tripwire. Bieber might be cheaper in prospects or a mid-season sale, lowering his cost by half to 60%. All in all Spring Training roster construction not complete.

Morel's defensive shortcomings are/were throwing to 1B/2B because of poor developmental coaching regarding fundamentals in setting his footwork and focusing on his arm angle. Counsell & Co identified this, and working on daily repetitions of fielding practice should mitigate this liability. Morel's offensive number should also escalate with more regular playing time, along with tutoring by Swanson & Hoerner. Wisdom is gone. Hopefully, the Cubs get a lower A flyer Madrigal also could be slated for a minor trade Mastrobuoni and Bote can play the entire infield outside 1B & C, so competition for the utility spot ensues. Bote had to have a genuine unreported discourse with Ross about being in the long-term dog house. Fresh eyes might open a door for him. Both of them fit into Counsell's worldview of a "total baseball player". Shaw could be developed into the next coming of Zobrist as a super-utility starter in 2025 onward. I wonder if we see him getting OF reps in AA/AAA?