Article: BELLY UP: Cubs Re-Sign Cody Bellinger to Intriguing Deal

[Matthew Trueblood]

You can finally stop holding your breath and stamping your feet. The best player on the 2023 Cubs will be back in 2024. For how long? We shall see. 

Image courtesy of © David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

After a months-long staring contest, Jed Hoyer and Scott Boras got together on a deal that will keep Cody Bellinger on the North Side of Chicago for at least the 2024 season, according to Jeff Passan.

In some ways, the makeup of this deal makes a lot of sense. Yes, Bellinger wanted his comeback season in 2023 to net him more in free agency, but the Cubs (and clearly other MLB organizations) aren't 100% certain in a complete turnaround. So, instead of something like seven years and $200 million, there was some compromise. Bellinger's deal could be worth $80 million over three years. It also could potentially only cost the Cubs $30 million in 2024, and that's it. 

This isn't the first time that Scott Boras has worked out a creative deal like this. Two offseasons ago, following the long lockout by owners, Carlos Correa had not yet signed and had just joined Boras Corp. In a 'normal' offseason, he would have received over $300 million, but teams weren't willing to do that with such a short timeline before the season was set to begin. Boras reached out to the Minnesota Twins and the two sides agreed to a three-year, $105 million contract with opt-outs after the first two seasons. No one expected the deal to be more than one season, and Correa did opt-out of it after that 2022 season. 

A return to the North Side was never a foregone conclusion--not even after the Yankees, Blue Jays, and Giants each ended up filling their needs for left-handed bats in different ways. Bellinger and Boras never really expected that the former MVP would command $300 million in free agency, but they did have a hard line below which they were unwilling to go, and it took a while for the Cubs to decide that the slender slugger was worth that price tag--the heftiest in team history.

Still, the fit always made sense, even with Pete Crow-Armstrong nearly set to emerge as a full-fledged big-leaguer. Bellinger is no longer a plus center fielder, and will not even be passable out there much longer, but between Crow-Armstrong, Alexander Canario, and Kevin Alcántara, the Cubs have plenty of potential center fielders in medium term. For now, they'll pencil Bellinger into that spot, and into the heart of their batting order. If Crow-Armstrong is able to assert himself, Bellinger will become a full-time first baseman.

Bellinger also will get time at first base where newly-acquired Michael Busch was penciled in. Busch can also play second and third base where he could platoon with Christopher Morel. Regardless, Craig Counsell now has a middle of the order bat and some defensive flexibility. 

More to come as we sort through the details here, but obviously, this is a very good day (notice the time of Passan's tweets for those who think baseball writing is glamorous). 

Bellinger, 28, signed a one-year, make-good deal with the Cubs a year ago. He responded by putting up easily his best season since his MVP season of 2019 with the Dodgers. In 130 games for the Cubs in 2023, he hit . 307/.356/.525 with 29 doubles, 26 homers, and 97 RBI. Defensively, he made 81 starts in center field and 44 starts at first base. 

What are your initial thoughts on Bellinger being back, what you expect his role to be in 2024, and how you feel about the contract that he signed? 

 

View full article

[JBears79]

Great deal. Hoyer is getting props from me on this one.

[BigbadB]

All of the belly aching about giving Bellinger his 200m can finally end. The Cubs won this deal, but Boras will still claim a victory, since it's a 25m+ per year contract that is player friendly. It's the way it was always going to go down. Everyone is happy.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I was wary of Bellinger for a few reasons but this deal mitigates a lot of that concern. Patience paid off for the Cubs on this one.

[Rob]

20 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I was wary of Bellinger for a few reasons but this deal mitigates a lot of that concern. Patience paid off for the Cubs on this one.

ZiPS has Bellinger's  projection at .267/.327/.441 and 2.7 fWAR. If he does that, he's worth something like $20-25M per season, depending on the $/WAR figure you use.

So this $80M guarantee is probably a bit high. It would, of course, be worthwhile if he's showing the skills to outperform his projections. But if he's doing that, he's also opting out. So in the event we actually pay out the $80M, it's quite possible we are "wasting" like half of that money due to injuries or underperformance.

But I have always maintained that it is incredibly hard to have an albatross of a short-term contract. And Bellinger has the physical tools and upside (and health) that might enable him to vastly exceed the projections. The risk/reward ratio here feels about right, and since I don't have to worry about this thing for the next 6-8 years, I'm reasonably happy with the signing.

[CubinNY]

This a good deal for both parties. 30 million is a lot of cheese. And he can rest next year. 

[Seth Stohs]

Since he's only in his age 28 season, Bellinger can take the $30 million and become a free agent before his age 29 season or get $60 million and become a free agent before his age 30 season. 

Most players become free agents at that point, so Bellinger could still turn it into a huge deal. 

[Guest234]

Bellinger is no longer a plus center fielder? Really - based on "data"?

[Rob]

4 hours ago, TomtheBombadil said:

❤️ you but cooooome on. When is it enough? Not only is this stuff made up but increasingly all the mechanisms/rules (written and unwritten) put in place are there to get you here. The guy just signed for less than half of what Disney said he was for sure asking, there’s lots of unused cap space, and still it has to be said that maybe they could have spent fewer monopoly dollars lol

My post covered the potential downside, the potential upside, and ended with the conclusion that I liked the deal. It's literally no different than saying about any player "he's injury prone, but they're mostly fluke injuries and if he stays healthy he could easily be worth this."

Don't get bent out of shape. I'm not trashing the deal.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Interesting tidbit: heard a rumor (unconfirmed) that the Giants and Twins offered more than $80m in January. 

[SOFNR]

1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Interesting tidbit: heard a rumor (unconfirmed) that the Giants and Twins offered more than $80m in January. 

It won't surprise me a bit if somebody went 5/100 at some point or even still had that offer out and Bellinger chose this one. Sure it's 20 mil less guaranteed if he's bad, but he's got a chance to make out much better if he's good.

[Brock Beauchamp]

5 hours ago, SOFNR said:

It won't surprise me a bit if somebody went 5/100 at some point or even still had that offer out and Bellinger chose this one. Sure it's 20 mil less guaranteed if he's bad, but he's got a chance to make out much better if he's good.

I've also heard rumblings the Cubs had an offer well in excess of $100m out there but it appears Bellinger wanted to trust in himself on the short-term deal with opt-outs. A fascinating situation.

[Stratos]

9 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Interesting tidbit: heard a rumor (unconfirmed) that the Giants and Twins offered more than $80m in January. 

It's possible even Jed offered more than 80m guaranteed with more years and lower AAV but Cody wanted the opt-outs with high AAV, who knows.

[Brock Beauchamp]

6 hours ago, Stratos said:

It's possible even Jed offered more than 80m guaranteed with more years and lower AAV but Cody wanted the opt-outs with high AAV, who knows.

From what I've heard, that's exactly what happened.

[Bull]

29 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

From what I've heard, that's exactly what happened.

If that's true you buried the lead in your previous post about the Giants and Twins

If the Giants and Twins had offered more, then Cody chose the Cubs.

If the Giants and Twins AND Jed had offered more, then Cody bet on himself. 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

46 minutes ago, Bull said:

If that's true you buried the lead in your previous post about the Giants and Twins

If the Giants and Twins had offered more, then Cody chose the Cubs.

If the Giants and Twins AND Jed had offered more, then Cody bet on himself. 

 

I found out about the Cubs offer after I typed the post about the Twins and Giants. 🙃

[CubinNY]

The psyche of a professional baseball player is so interesting and alien to me. They must really have to complement mentalize their life. Six months of stability and family (if they have one) and then the season. It's quite a change from the beginning of their careers when they know where they are going to be. It's such a tough business. 

Edited February 26, 2024 by CubinNY

[LBiittner]

Belli signs on the dotted line this afternoon, roster spot move expected too.

Oops wrong thread. My bad, I'll check the other dozen Belli listings

Edited February 26, 2024 by LBiittner

[Stratos]

8 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

From what I've heard, that's exactly what happened.

Interested in where you heard this?

[WhyCantWeWin]

4 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Interested in where you heard this?

I think Rosenthal mentioned that Bellinger got some mid tier offers but he preferred to get a high aav one with an opt out. He's really banking on himself. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

5 hours ago, Stratos said:

Interested in where you heard this?

Various sources, second hand. I'm not the "rumors guy" but I know a handful of people who are. And they're legitimately plugged into rumors. We've been doing this for a long time (over a decade) and I get scuttlebutt from our text chains, which are overwhelmingly accurate.

The addendum to this is that I'm talking about it on a forum, not writing about it on the front page. That means it's unconfirmed but probably, at least in partially, accurate.