Article: How Much Does Christopher Morel Really Need to Prove Defensively?

[RandallPnkFloyd]

As the Chicago Cubs undertake the project of trying to turn one of their best hitters into a credible defender at a key position of need, the big question will be how high a bar he needs to clear. That question has a few wrinkles to it, so let's examine them.

Image courtesy of © Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports

Minor-league outfield signings serving as a potential Cody Bellinger contingency notwithstanding, perhaps the biggest Chicago Cubs news to emerge from the extended weekend was that they would give Christopher Morel a prolonged run at third base this spring.

We (obviously) do not know what shape that will end up taking. The assumption has long been that Morel would get most of his starts out of the designated hitter spot. Nick Madrigal and Patrick Wisdom have been loosely, uneasily projected to hold down the hot corner, with an occasional cameo from Michael Busch. Morel, in the meantime, could see a splash of playing time at myriad positions, as was the case in 2023. He appeared at second, shortstop, third, and all three outfield spots last year.

That would likely be on an as-needed basis, however, as none of those spots appear to be a long-term home for Morel. The middle infield is locked up for at least the next couple of years. The corner outfield spots are, too, with Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki. Center field represents more of a question, but the Cubs already have Pete Crow-Armstrong, Mike Tauchman, and Alexander Canario vying for time, and the 2022 experiment in which Morel got extended run in center didn't leave anyone especially encouraged. Morel’s opportunities are constrained by others and by his own limitations, all over the diamond.

There was brief chatter about a look at first base, but the acquisition of Busch seems to have put that on hold. This means that third base represents the most logical fit for Morel, if the team is hellbent on getting him time in the field. Realistically, shouldn’t that have always been the case anyway?

Morel’s bat profiles well for the spot--much more so than the contact-oriented (and-nothing-else) Madrigal or the massive strikeout rate (even compared to Morel's own bloated one) of Wisdom. In matters of playing time, it’s largely about the defense, which is what the Cubs are aiming to examine this spring. But just how good does he have to be in order to stick there, anyway? Could the team get by with him being even average? Slightly below? Or does he have to be Actually Good in order to maintain a grip on an everyday positional role? 

There are three fairly close comparisons to be made against Morel’s offensive production in 2023: Max Muncy, Jake Burger, and Jeimer Candelario. Here are their respective lines:

• Morel: .247/.313/.508/.821, 31.0 K%, 8.4 BB%, .260 ISO, 119 wRC+

• Muncy: .212/.333/.475/.808, 26.4 K%, 14.7 BB%, .263 ISO, 118 wRC+

• Burger: .250/.309/.518/.828, 27.6 K%, 5.9 BB%, .268 ISO, 120 wRC+

• Candelario: .251/.336/.471/.807, 22.0 K%, 9.2 BB%, .220 ISO, 117 wRC+

Candelario featured the highest WAR of the three (3.3, ranked eighth among qualifying third basemen). Muncy followed at 2.9 (12th) and Burger at 2.5 (15th). Nothing identical to Morel among them, but similarities abound. The most notable difference is that Muncy and Burger each project for over 70 percent of the playing time at third base, according to the depth charts over at FanGraphs. Candelario is in a bit more of a unique position, given the glut of infield prospects in Cincinnati, but totaled 994 innings at the position last year. Should one of the Reds’ prospects falter or hit the injured list, he’s likely the guy to step into a larger role there. So it stands to reason that this trio of Morel’s offensive comps are considered everyday guys at the hot corner.

And yet, the defensive output isn’t terrific. Muncy went for an Outs Above Average (OAA) of -7 and -3 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS). Burger was -8 and -7, respectively. Candelario ended up on the positive side of OAA, at 2, but fell on the negative of DRS, at -5. In roughly 180 innings at the position over the last two seasons, Morel has a cumulative OAA of -3 and DRS of -4. It stands to reason that he could improve that if given more reps. Obviously, he has to make at least minor strides, because that rate of defensive leakage would amount to 15 or 20 lost runs over a full season. The hope would be that he makes bigger progress. But if he doesn’t – and he ends up being a bit under the average threshold – would it really matter?

The reality is that there are very few third basemen who excel on both sides of the ball. José Ramírez, Manny Machado and Nolan Arenado stand almost alone in that regard. Outside of the truly elite at the position, you’re likely getting a glove-first guy with a mediocre bat, or an above-average bat with average-to-below average defense, like the Morel comps. With that in mind, who’s to say that Morel has to be good in order to nail down the position? It’s not as if the rest of the league (or the Cubs' own alternatives) are perfect. Madrigal looked solid in a very small sample, but his bat is better suited for…not a corner infield spot. And Wisdom’s glove was an atrocity in both 2022 & 2023. It certainly seems as if the Cubs should be giving Morel every chance to stick.

Now, of course, there’s a bit of additional context. It’s a team built to live on the edge. Steady pitching, strong defense, and very little margin for error. It’s possible that the team decides to ride it out with Madrigal (or, hey, wild idea: sign a massive-upside defender like Matt Chapman) in order to ensure that fielding phalanx remains intact to cover any offensive shortcomings. You could also argue that allowing Morel to ride it out there makes more sense under these circumstances, given that almost no infielders are better at making plays to their right than Dansby Swanson. With such good defense around him, one becomes a little more optimistic as to:

1. The impact of below-average defense from Morel; and
2. The potential for development over time.

In an ideal world, Morel shows he can handle the position from a defensive standpoint. This would help the club to avoid wasting his athleticism as an everyday DH. It would also allow the Cubs to operate with a little more freedom at the DH spot, which could lead to increased opportunity for many of the youngsters coming up through the ranks (Alexander Canario, for one) and for Busch to play often even if Bellinger re-signs. If it doesn’t work, though (or if the team decides to stay status quo with the Madrigal/Wisdom Braintrust), then we’ll likely see much of the same we did last year. Heavy time in the lineup, but sparingly seeing the actual field away from the basepaths. Let’s just not pretend that he has to be good to be the answer at third base for now.

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[squally1313]

Yeah I've come off as probably overly negative to the 24 year old guy with years of team control and a season and a half of 120 wRC ABs. But, to I guess continue that trend, it seems like the path to Christopher Morel, Key Contributor, relies on improvement and I still think the most likely outcome is offensive regression. People keep talking about just getting to mediocre defensively (extrapolating those defensive numbers at third for him make him at least twice as bad as those other (bad) third basemen listed), but gloss over the fact that it's really, really rare (read: difficult) to be an effective hitter with a single digit walk rate and a K rate over 30%. If he can work his way out of at least one of those buckets, great. But it's asking a lot given his history, 

Injuries happen, and we could do a lot worse than giving him 300 PAs mostly at DH and letting him fill in if needed. Nico or Dansby going down for an extended time as an example. But trying to force him into 3B, where we already have an (admittedly very weird and not aesthetically pleasing) platoon that was effective last year and projected effective this year, not to mention a guy sitting out in free agency that can hit and would make our infield defense historically good, all in the name of like....signing JD Martinez? seems like a lot of work. 

[Rcal10]

39 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Yeah I've come off as probably overly negative to the 24 year old guy with years of team control and a season and a half of 120 wRC ABs. But, to I guess continue that trend, it seems like the path to Christopher Morel, Key Contributor, relies on improvement and I still think the most likely outcome is offensive regression. People keep talking about just getting to mediocre defensively (extrapolating those defensive numbers at third for him make him at least twice as bad as those other (bad) third basemen listed), but gloss over the fact that it's really, really rare (read: difficult) to be an effective hitter with a single digit walk rate and a K rate over 30%. If he can work his way out of at least one of those buckets, great. But it's asking a lot given his history, 

Injuries happen, and we could do a lot worse than giving him 300 PAs mostly at DH and letting him fill in if needed. Nico or Dansby going down for an extended time as an example. But trying to force him into 3B, where we already have an (admittedly very weird and not aesthetically pleasing) platoon that was effective last year and projected effective this year, not to mention a guy sitting out in free agency that can hit and would make our infield defense historically good, all in the name of like....signing JD Martinez? seems like a lot of work. 

I get what you are saying about Morel and understand why you feel he will regress. But I don’t agree. I think he will get better. He is only 24 and basically learned to hit in the majors. And really he doesn’t even have to get much better to be a solid offensive player. His numbers are not that far from A. Garcia from last year. And as good as Alonso. If he can handle 3rd it is a big win for the Cubs so they can add a bat only guy. But even if he can’t he is still very valuable as a guy to spot at positions from time to time but mainly a DH. Trying him at 3rd is well worth the effort. 

[LBiittner]

On the bright side, when considering Morel's challenges at fielding thirdbase. In the history of MLB there has been only 2 thirdbasemen to exceed 600 errors. I don't think Chris will play long enough to reach this  plateau.

[squally1313]

1 minute ago, Rcal10 said:

I get what you are saying about Morel and understand why you feel he will regress. But I don’t agree. I think he will get better. He is only 24 and basically learned to hit in the majors. And really he doesn’t even have to get much better to be a solid offensive player. His numbers are not that far from A. Garcia from last year. And as good as Alonso. If he can handle 3rd it is a big win for the Cubs so they can add a bat only guy. But even if he can’t he is still very valuable as a guy to spot at positions from time to time but mainly a DH. Trying him at 3rd is well worth the effort. 

Slight disagree on the Adolis Garcia comp, those walk and K rates are not the same, but probably not the point here.

I'm not saying it's impossible that he gets better on one or both sides of the ball, but I don't think we're necessarily in a position where we need to rely on improvement from a guy with 850 MLB PAs. Yes he's 24 and hit the ball much harder in 2023 than he did in 2022, but his offensive profile still makes him a clear regression candidate, and so you're trying to avoid that as well as needing defensive improvement. What we did at third base worked last year. It's projected to work again this year. It's ugly, but it's cheap. Setting aside the Chapman/Bellinger/pitcher/PTR is cheap discussion, sign Belt to kill righties, let Morel kill lefties and get another 150 PAs in spot starts, injury situations, etc.

Externally, between Cody and Chapman, Chapman is projected to be better, and also be cheaper. I trust PCA to produce more value than Morel, if not immediately, very soon in the future. 

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, squally1313 said:

Slight disagree on the Adolis Garcia comp, those walk and K rates are not the same, but probably not the point here.

I'm not saying it's impossible that he gets better on one or both sides of the ball, but I don't think we're necessarily in a position where we need to rely on improvement from a guy with 850 MLB PAs. Yes he's 24 and hit the ball much harder in 2023 than he did in 2022, but his offensive profile still makes him a clear regression candidate, and so you're trying to avoid that as well as needing defensive improvement. What we did at third base worked last year. It's projected to work again this year. It's ugly, but it's cheap. Setting aside the Chapman/Bellinger/pitcher/PTR is cheap discussion, sign Belt to kill righties, let Morel kill lefties and get another 150 PAs in spot starts, injury situations, etc.

Externally, between Cody and Chapman, Chapman is projected to be better, and also be cheaper. I trust PCA to produce more value than Morel, if not immediately, very soon in the future. 

I agree he needs to get that k rate down some. Even 3% lower helps. I just don’t assume at 24 he will regress. Right now he is the second best bat in the team. I am sure some could argue other guys, but by OPS he is second. He doesn’t have to improve. Just stay as he is. But I don’t feel it is a reach to suggest he can improve some. He is young and still learning. I get it though. Sometimes guys never learn (Baez) and regress. I agree they could do a belt/Morel split at DH, assuming they got Belt. But to me the team’s offense is much better if Belt replaced Madrigal/Wisdom in the line up instead of Morel. That is why I like the idea of trying him there, and really hope it works out. Regardless of the outcome, I feel Morel needs 500AB a season. 
BTW, signing Chapman would be fine. Then Morel gets 500 AB at DH and no need for Belt. 
And one last point, whether we agree or disagree on this I am happy to be talking Cubs baseball. Not the other nonsense that has been discussed lately. It is a pleasure disagreeing with you.😀

Edited February 21, 2024 by Rcal10

[squally1313]

4 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I agree he needs to get that k rate down some. Even 3% lower helps. I just don’t assume at 24 he will regress. Right now he is the second best bat in the team. I am sure some could argue other guys, but by OPS he is second. He doesn’t have to improve. Just stay as he is. But I don’t feel it is a reach to suggest he can improve some. He is young and still learning. I get it though. Sometimes guys never learn (Baez) and regress. I agree they could do a belt/Morel split at DH, assuming they got Belt. But to me the team’s offense is much better if Belt replaced Madrigal/Wisdom in the line up instead of Morel. That is why I like the idea of trying him there, and really hope it works out. Regardless of the outcome, I feel Morel needs 500AB a season. 
BTW, signing Chapman would be fine. Then Morel gets 500 AB at DH and no need for Belt. 

But the fact that he's the second best hitter on the team (based on last years results) but 6th best in terms of overall value (based on last years results) is kinda the whole argument right? The team's offense is better if Belt's bat replaces Madrigal and Wisdom's bat (though, only against RHPs), but how much of that is lost by replacing Madrigal/Wisdom's glove with Morel's glove?

And why is it a Chapman or Belt decision? Belt is going to be much cheaper, a short term deal, and easier to fit into the budget in a world where we 'choose' between Bellinger and Chapman. Get them both.

Either way, Morel gets 250 PAs at DH against LH, gets 15-20 starts at second to pace Hoerner/Dansby a little, a handful of starts at third, we're talking about like a 100 PA difference here and he gets to feast on lefties while being sheltered defensively.  

[We Got The Whole 9]

2 hours ago, squally1313 said:

Slight disagree on the Adolis Garcia comp, those walk and K rates are not the same, but probably not the point here.

I'm not saying it's impossible that he gets better on one or both sides of the ball, but I don't think we're necessarily in a position where we need to rely on improvement from a guy with 850 MLB PAs. Yes he's 24 and hit the ball much harder in 2023 than he did in 2022, but his offensive profile still makes him a clear regression candidate, and so you're trying to avoid that as well as needing defensive improvement. What we did at third base worked last year. It's projected to work again this year. It's ugly, but it's cheap. Setting aside the Chapman/Bellinger/pitcher/PTR is cheap discussion, sign Belt to kill righties, let Morel kill lefties and get another 150 PAs in spot starts, injury situations, etc.

Externally, between Cody and Chapman, Chapman is projected to be better, and also be cheaper. I trust PCA to produce more value than Morel, if not immediately, very soon in the future. 

Through his first 2 full seasons Garcia had a 5.8 BB and 29.6 K% with a 102 wRC+ and 207 ISO. It's actually a really solid comp.

[Rcal10]

35 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

But the fact that he's the second best hitter on the team (based on last years results) but 6th best in terms of overall value (based on last years results) is kinda the whole argument right? The team's offense is better if Belt's bat replaces Madrigal and Wisdom's bat (though, only against RHPs), but how much of that is lost by replacing Madrigal/Wisdom's glove with Morel's glove?

And why is it a Chapman or Belt decision? Belt is going to be much cheaper, a short term deal, and easier to fit into the budget in a world where we 'choose' between Bellinger and Chapman. Get them both.

Either way, Morel gets 250 PAs at DH against LH, gets 15-20 starts at second to pace Hoerner/Dansby a little, a handful of starts at third, we're talking about like a 100 PA difference here and he gets to feast on lefties while being sheltered defensively.  

I don’t think they get Belt anyway. I think that last bat is going to be a competition between Peralta, Smith, Mervis and Canario. One of these 4 will be the 13th bat in the team. Maybe none will be that bat all year, but between them I would guess the last spot would be filled. 

[squally1313]

14 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Through his first 2 full seasons Garcia had a 5.8 BB and 29.6 K% with a 102 wRC+ and 207 ISO. It's actually a really solid comp.

The quote was "his numbers are not that far from A. Garcia from last year." Emphasis added by me. To his point, it shows the path that Morel can take (and is arguably already of). To my point, it's that there needs to be a not insignificant amount of improvement to turn Morel into a quality contributor. 

[We Got The Whole 9]

29 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

The quote was "his numbers are not that far from A. Garcia from last year." Emphasis added by me. To his point, it shows the path that Morel can take (and is arguably already of). To my point, it's that there needs to be a not insignificant amount of improvement to turn Morel into a quality contributor. 

Point taken

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, squally1313 said:

The quote was "his numbers are not that far from A. Garcia from last year." Emphasis added by me. To his point, it shows the path that Morel can take (and is arguably already of). To my point, it's that there needs to be a not insignificant amount of improvement to turn Morel into a quality contributor. 

So I am not sure what you are suggesting, but I didn’t actually mean to compare Morel to Garcia. I was just pointing out Morel wasn’t that far from him. Someone in a previous discussion had mentioned he could dream Morel could turn into him. And again not that different. It also should be noted Garcia did this 4 years older than Morel. I just don’t understand why anyone would suggest regression in him. And I do understand his k and walk rate are not ideal. But he is 24. Why can’t that get better. I guess I don’t understand why you would want less AB from him. He needs 500+ AB IMO, regardless of if it is at 3rd, all over the field or strictly DH. 

[Jason Ross]

22 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

So I am not sure what you are suggesting, but I didn’t actually mean to compare Morel to Garcia. I was just pointing out Morel wasn’t that far from him. Someone in a previous discussion had mentioned he could dream Morel could turn into him. And again not that different. It also should be noted Garcia did this 4 years older than Morel. I just don’t understand why anyone would suggest regression in him. And I do understand his k and walk rate are not ideal. But he is 24. Why can’t that get better. I guess I don’t understand why you would want less AB from him. He needs 500+ AB IMO, regardless of if it is at 3rd, all over the field or strictly DH. 

I think the issue here is that you're assuming age = progression when I think that's not necessarily the reality, The league and Morel are going to be in a constant state of adjustments/readjustment. Yes, Morel is 24 and has 800+ PA's under his belt, which makes him more stable, but at the same time, there's real flaws in his game. 

So let's use last year for example. Christopher Morel really struggled against sweepers. We can see this in that he has his biggest in zone whiff% against this pitch, it was the most likely pitch to be called a strike against him in general, we can see this in that he has a very low OPS against this pitch, and he is very prone to chasing this pitch off the plate (heat map below). And yet, in 2024 Morel saw only 128 pitches classified as a "sweeper". That's one of the lowest pitches he saw last season. Conversely, Morel feasted on fastballs. He saw a ton of fastballs.

So what happens if and when more pitchers start to exploit this? Is Christopher Morel going to adapt? Will he improve on the pitch? Will this be something that he can't get over? The sweeper is a pitch we're seeing implemented more and more in the MLB right now and is something RHP are being taught to combat RHH's. So why should we consider regression? Well, that's one reason right there: Christopher Morel was not good against this pitch and teams didn't really use that against him last year. Given a full offseason, and with teams full of people more intelligent than I am, I am sure scouting reports on Mr. Morel will be updated to "don't throw fastballs, maybe try the sweeper". I'm sure the Cubs will have worked with Christopher as well, so again, adjustment/readjustment.

Point is...players with the profile of Morel, who struggle with consistent contact, are exploitable. Morel has some baseline to him, but enough volatility that I can't tell you what I expect out of him. There's regression potential and progression potential. I don't want to be negative here, it's just a post about why someone could see regression as potential...it's there. Progression isn't linear. I think it's fair to wonder just where this will go. 

[Billy62]

     So where could I be at on not only Christopher Morel, but the entire Cubs spring so far? I don't think it has been a bust, but no pun intended, I don't think the administration has hit the ball out of the park either. Of course the status of Cody Bellinger has loomed so big over the entire winter, the moves that have been made have kind of been overshadowed, maybe even ignored, definitely placed on the back burner. Christopher Morel is an interesting subject. Yes he hits under .250, yes he strikes out a lot, and yes defensively he has shown some growing pains. That said, he is so electric. His power cannot be ignored. Given a full season at the plate, he has the potential to hit 30-35 homeruns. It puts him into a whole different class of offensive Cub players, and makes him a bat you want in the line-up. It seems the Cubs have gone all-in on their youth movement. This can be very good, and it can also be very bad, and only time will tell us which one it is. I think offensively as a team they have not really improved or hurt themselves so far. Yes, a lot of unproven or unrealized talent in the mix. Once again, the Bellinger status raises its expensive head again. If the Cubs do sign him and stick him at first base, then this is an improved offense, and gives the defense a kick too. Pitching, I think the Cubs have really improved here, not just for the immediate season either. I think they have signed some talent for the future and maybe even a few faces for this summer. I know being a Cub fan always makes you optimistic in the spring and mostly regretful in the summer. This year though I am cautiously optimistic. Are we talking rings? I don't feel that yet, but it would be nice. But if the youngsters progress like we hope, this team could be playoff caliber. Will they get there though? That is the real question.

[Rcal10]

13 minutes ago, Billy62 said:

     So where could I be at on not only Christopher Morel, but the entire Cubs spring so far? I don't think it has been a bust, but no pun intended, I don't think the administration has hit the ball out of the park either. Of course the status of Cody Bellinger has loomed so big over the entire winter, the moves that have been made have kind of been overshadowed, maybe even ignored, definitely placed on the back burner. Christopher Morel is an interesting subject. Yes he hits under .250, yes he strikes out a lot, and yes defensively he has shown some growing pains. That said, he is so electric. His power cannot be ignored. Given a full season at the plate, he has the potential to hit 30-35 homeruns. It puts him into a whole different class of offensive Cub players, and makes him a bat you want in the line-up. It seems the Cubs have gone all-in on their youth movement. This can be very good, and it can also be very bad, and only time will tell us which one it is. I think offensively as a team they have not really improved or hurt themselves so far. Yes, a lot of unproven or unrealized talent in the mix. Once again, the Bellinger status raises its expensive head again. If the Cubs do sign him and stick him at first base, then this is an improved offense, and gives the defense a kick too. Pitching, I think the Cubs have really improved here, not just for the immediate season either. I think they have signed some talent for the future and maybe even a few faces for this summer. I know being a Cub fan always makes you optimistic in the spring and mostly regretful in the summer. This year though I am cautiously optimistic. Are we talking rings? I don't feel that yet, but it would be nice. But if the youngsters progress like we hope, this team could be playoff caliber. Will they get there though? That is the real question.

Why won’t Bellinger sign and play center? Why first base? Didn’t the trade die Busch put Busch at 1st?

[squally1313]

22 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

So I am not sure what you are suggesting, but I didn’t actually mean to compare Morel to Garcia. I was just pointing out Morel wasn’t that far from him. Someone in a previous discussion had mentioned he could dream Morel could turn into him. And again not that different. It also should be noted Garcia did this 4 years older than Morel. I just don’t understand why anyone would suggest regression in him. And I do understand his k and walk rate are not ideal. But he is 24. Why can’t that get better. I guess I don’t understand why you would want less AB from him. He needs 500+ AB IMO, regardless of if it is at 3rd, all over the field or strictly DH. 

I want less ABs from him because he got 429 of them (PAs) last year and gave us 1.4 fWAR, which if you project out to 700 PAs gives you 2.3 fWAR, which would put us right at league average for third base and less than what we did last year, and I think we can do better than that internally and especially externally, and I think he's a really bad fit for us in a role where he gets 90% of the starts at DH. 

[Rcal10]

5 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

I want less ABs from him because he got 429 of them (PAs) last year and gave us 1.4 fWAR, which if you project out to 700 PAs gives you 2.3 fWAR, which would put us right at league average for third base and less than what we did last year, and I think we can do better than that internally and especially externally, and I think he's a really bad fit for us in a role where he gets 90% of the starts at DH. 

Yesterday in the score they had a list of the top DH for the 24 season. Morel was ranked 3rd behind Alvarez and Ohtani and ahead of guys like Jimenez and Schwarber. Maybe this is just one publications opinion. I get that. And I do understand you and 1908 having reservations about it. But for me, I am going to stick to my belief that he is a solid bat and a top end DH. And if he could play 3rd even better. For my team, I want him in the line up daily. I am perfectly fine with yiu not agreeing with that. 

[Billy62]

On 2/21/2024 at 2:47 PM, Rcal10 said:

Why won’t Bellinger sign and play center? Why first base? Didn’t the trade die Busch put Busch at 1st?

Well Rcal, I think the business side of our game really hurts those of us that really love the game. It is really all about the money to them, and understandably so. We are talking millions these days. We just signed Bellinger for three years and it cost us 80 million. Remember back to the late 70's-early 80's. Bill Buckner brought us to our feet for right around 300k a year. I remember sitting in terrace reserved seats for about $4.00. The TV money made both sides greedy, and even though they said it wouldn't effect seat prices, last time I checked, I think the terrace reserved seat was going a little bit north of 60 bucks. So in answer to your question, yes that might work. But, we were sitting on pins and needles hoping the numbers could work. It seems to have worked out this time.