Article: 2024 Chicago Cubs X-Factors: What Impact Can Cade Horton Have in 2024?

[Jason Ross]

When the Cubs selected Cade Horton seventh overall in 2022, many fans were concerned the Cubs had drafted a flash in the pan from the College World Series and someone who would eventually end up in the bullpen. Now, though, he sure looks like a member of the starting rotation. Could that come sooner, rather than later?

Image courtesy of © MATTIE NERETIN / USA TODAY NETWORK

Cade Horton's 2023 went as well as anyone could have hoped. Not only did Horton show that he was healthy, he tore through the minors, starting in Myrtle Beach, ripping up South Bend, and finishing with the Tennessee Smokies as their de facto ace, starting two of their playoff games. Horton showed excellent control of his fastball, kept the devastating slider, and even began developing a changeup that flashes plus. Horton is on a path that few Cub pitching prospects have traveled. This is probably the best pitcher the Cubs have drafted since Mark Prior. Based on that, it would have been fair to expect the Cubs to invite Horton to major-league camp this year. They invited a younger and further away prospect (Owen Caissie) last season, and invited more recent first-round pick Matt Shaw this year. Horton wasn't on the invite list. But I'm not sure that's a bad thing.

I had previously theorized that the Cubs may give Cade Horton a bit of a "late start" in 2023 to limit his innings, and this move begins to make that theory feel a bit more plausible. We assume that the Cubs will want to limit Horton to something in the range of 130 innings, as he finished with just a shade over 88 last season. The Cubs are generally a "protect their pitchers at all costs" organization, and I expect them to be even more careful with Horton. This shouldn't suggest an actual injury. It's just that the Cubs don't want Horton to waste innings in Tennessee in mid-April. They'd rather have him pitch with the Chicago Cubs in September. 

Regardless of his start time or being included in big-league camp, I think Horton will get a good run as a Cub in 2024. In fact, I think if he gets a late start, it shows just how confident the Cubs are that Horton will be one of their three or four best arms in the rotation come the end of the season. 

When do I expect Horton to make his debut? Anytime after Jun. 1 is a realistic target. In all honesty, he's ready right now. The questions for Horton were on his health and his third pitch (the changeup), and I think both were effectively answered in 2023. At this point, it's just maintaining and proving you're capable of beating Triple-A hitters consistently, and then it's showtime. The Cubs will eventually see someone in the rotation get hurt, and while I wouldn't be surprised to see a Drew Smyly or a Javier Assad get the first crack at a spot, Horton's upside and stuff are just in a different stratosphere than those two.

Even if he comes up in mid-June, that would allow for over half a season of innings (70-80) at the MLB level, across maybe 15 starts. They would also come at a very important part of the season: when the rubber hits the road, and the team begins to make a push for the playoffs. Horton's stuff is precisely what the rotation is missing: high-velocity swing and miss. While the Cubs have some pitchers I expect will get strikeouts, not even Justin Steele and Shota Imanaga offer the overpowering fastball and the devastating wipeout slider that Horton can.

What could we expect from Horton in 2024? ZiPS sees 80 innings, with an ERA of 4.30 for the former Sooner. On the surface, that feels pretty unimpressive, but we have to remember that all ZiPS can do is input the data it has, and almost all of that data comes from Low A and High A, so ZiPS is going to have a hard time translating that to the majors. Those numbers are low, and we can probably expect Horton to be a standard deviation better than that. While I see a lot of stylistic similarities with Spencer Strider in pitch mix and mechanics, it's unfair to expect Horton to immediately join the ranks of the elite in terms of strikeout rate. The answer lies somewhere in between, but I think Horton could immediately become the best right-handed pitcher in the Cubs rotation and even the Game 2 or 3 choice come the playoffs. While it will probably be tough sledding for him to win the Rookie of the Year award, it's possible he could impress people enough to get some votes if he comes up early in the summer.

There are other outcomes, however. The Cubs may have a perfectly healthy rotation that has few gaps. If Jameson Taillon bounces back and Jordan Wicks hits the ground running, the Cubs may decide to keep the rotation intact. In this case, Horton's stuff would more than play in the bullpen down the stretch. Counsell could use Horton as a two-inning power arm with a fastball-slider combination, or deploy him as a righty-killer. While this may be less exciting than the former scenario, Horton could still be an impactful arm on a playoff-caliber team.

Either way, I fully expect Horton to be a member of the Chicago Cubs in July. He's not on the 40-man today, but he's too good for Tennessee, Iowa, or anywhere other than MLB. Wrigley will be buzzing the day Horton finally makes his major-league debut.

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When do you expect to see Horton arrive in MLB? Whom should he displace from the rotation, if it comes to that? Jump in and discuss.

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[Jason Ross]

I should mention: Horton is now in camp. It was previously not mentioned he was invited to camp, so you'll have to forgive me there! New information and all.

[We Got The Whole 9]

I would much prefer this approach of starting them late and never hitting the innings cap until the trophy is raised, over letting them pitch all year and shutting them down after a few months and hoping they can ramp back up in case of a postseason appearance. 

[CubinNY]

Yes!!!!

[Bertz]

130 innings is my rough expectation for Horton as well, and it is not a lot.  Justin Steele threw 120 in '22 and was a 5 and dive guy who missed the last month of the year.  I think if the team is going to properly manage Horton's innings this year one of four things has to happen:

1. He has a very slow ramp up and doesn't come up until July or more likely August

2. He spends the last month or two of the season in the MLB pen

3. He gets Strasburg'd and shut down in August

4. He makes a sizable IL/DL stint

I would guess #1 or #2 are the plan, I also think they're the best developmentally.  So I think you're going to continually see the team he really conservative with him, e.g. starting him back at Tenn, to make sure the drumbeat to call him up doesn't get too loud too early.

[CubinNY]

3 minutes ago, Bertz said:

 

4. He makes a sizable IL/DL stint

 

Don't you put that evil on me,  Rickey Bobby.

Edited February 20, 2024 by CubinNY

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Horton starting once per week from April and averaging 5 IP/GS would have him between 130-140 by end of season.  He'll likely be shy of that 5 IP/GS mark in Iowa if last year is any indication, so if the target is roughly 130 IP then he's basically on track to do that without any adjustments in a minor league season.

So with that baseline, how do we adjust for any MLB impact.  As a reliever, this is done by default, pitching even only in September in relief would likely leave him with the bullets needed to be part of the MLB pen through any postseason run.  As a starter, the first consideration is if he can still start 1x/week, Counsell + the existing depth would leave me optimistic that would be still possible, so then you need to account for any postseason impact.  He's very unlikely to be a 2x/series starter, so you maybe skip him or delay him a few days once a month or so which gets you pretty close, assuming he's a 5 and dive starter this year at the MLB level(a fair assumption in a pennant race/postseason).  There are other permutations, but they're of the type that you can't really plan workload around(Horton goes supernova on Iowa, injury ravaged MLB rotation).

So to tl;dr it, if by the end of April Horton looks like a guy who is gonna force his way to the MLB rotation by the trade deadline(which means not only his performance but performance of the MLB rotation, Wesneski, Brown, etc), then you build in some break points over May and June to allow for the possibility of him starting postseason games.  Otherwise I think you just kinda let him do his thing similar to last year, and consider him as a potential bullpen weapon for the stretch run/postseason if that's deemed prudent.

[Jason Ross]

I think he'll be up well before the trade deadline. Looking at Horton, he had 35 IP under his belt by June 15th last year. I assume he will be kept around that number in 2024...slow ramp up and keeping the innings off. If we are saying ~130 IP on the season (which feels like the number) that gives him 95 innings to play with from June 15th through the end of the year. Again, quick mathing, but that gives him about 17 starts (assuming he averages around 5.5 innings per start or so) the rest of the year. Justin Steele made 18 starts from June 17 - the end of the season, and I suspect the Cubs can tinker with hybrid 6-man rotations to give a break here or there. 

Overall, while I think June 1st is the first time we can start to maybe think about a Cade Horton call-up, I think June 15th and on begins a true "Cade Horton Watch" for me where any time after that, he could realistically get the call for good. Injuries, how the Cubs are playing and how Horton is doing (though I really think he's going to have little issues this season in the MiLB) will play a role here and I don't think it's as simple as "June 15th, mark your calendar", but I think mid-late-June is probably the time to start looking for it.

[Jason Ross]

The Dodgers have worked for years doing things like this. They're very deliberate on limiting starting pitchers to roughly 5 innings in the minors, and then transitioning starting pitchers into long relief roles. The Cubs, IMO, follow the Dodgers in this line of thinking. It's hard to tell what's specific, or what the limit is (as we don't know the number a team sets), so exact "proof" is impossible, only inference, but I do believe other teams are using this line of thinking. 

[Rcal10]

10 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

The Dodgers have worked for years doing things like this. They're very deliberate on limiting starting pitchers to roughly 5 innings in the minors, and then transitioning starting pitchers into long relief roles. The Cubs, IMO, follow the Dodgers in this line of thinking. It's hard to tell what's specific, or what the limit is (as we don't know the number a team sets), so exact "proof" is impossible, only inference, but I do believe other teams are using this line of thinking. 

It does make a lot of sense really. Why waste innings in April, May and June if you know he is only going to pitch 100 innings, or whatever. Start him later, let him get the innings when it is most important. 

[Jason Ross]

2 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

It does make a lot of sense really. Why waste innings in April, May and June if you know he is only going to pitch 100 innings, or whatever. Start him later, let him get the innings when it is most important. 

Entirely. If the Cubs think Cade Horton is among their 4 best SP's, it's best to use those innings at the end of the season when they may matter more (in playoff situations).

[Rcal10]

14 minutes ago, The20thK said:

It feels like one of those things that is so obvious that it makes you wonder why this hasn’t always been the way? Or “why I didn’t think of it?”. Lol

The issue is if you want him to throw 100 innings do you build that into the regular season or do you account for post season. So do you only pitch him 75 with the thought of another 25 in the post season? But what if there is no post season. Then he only pitches 75 innings. However if you pitch him 100 and then make the playoffs is he not on the playoff roster? I know the Nationals shut down Strasburg one year. That didn’t really work too well, did it? 

[Jason Ross]

35 minutes ago, The20thK said:

It feels like one of those things that is so obvious that it makes you wonder why this hasn’t always been the way? Or “why I didn’t think of it?”. Lol

I'd imagine it's a combination of a few things. We live in a more forward thinking game today where pitcher and player health is more en vogue; teams are hyper aware of pitching injuries in a way even 30 years ago we were only just starting to think about. Maximizing innings is far more important today than it was previously.

Secondly, with the invention/integration of things like pitch labs and technology across the sport, development has moved from the binary "on the mound or not developing" more to things like visualizations, data, and the like. You don't have to watch a guy throw a slider over and over again to decide how it moves...you can throw it in the lab a few times, get the RPM on the spin rate, the horizontal and vertical movement, and you've got a wealth of information; more than the former with significantly less done by the pitcher. So you only need a guy to throw 3 IP in April in Iowa versus going 6 IP every time.