2024 Chicago Cubs X-Factors: What Impact Can Cade Horton Have in 2024?

I should mention: Horton is now in camp. It was previously not mentioned he was invited to camp, so you'll have to forgive me there! New information and all.

I would much prefer this approach of starting them late and never hitting the innings cap until the trophy is raised, over letting them pitch all year and shutting them down after a few months and hoping they can ramp back up in case of a postseason appearance. 

Yes!!!!

130 innings is my rough expectation for Horton as well, and it is not a lot.  Justin Steele threw 120 in '22 and was a 5 and dive guy who missed the last month of the year.  I think if the team is going to properly manage Horton's innings this year one of four things has to happen:

1. He has a very slow ramp up and doesn't come up until July or more likely August

2. He spends the last month or two of the season in the MLB pen

3. He gets Strasburg'd and shut down in August

4. He makes a sizable IL/DL stint

I would guess #1 or #2 are the plan, I also think they're the best developmentally.  So I think you're going to continually see the team he really conservative with him, e.g. starting him back at Tenn, to make sure the drumbeat to call him up doesn't get too loud too early.

3 minutes ago, Bertz said:

 

4. He makes a sizable IL/DL stint

 

Don't you put that evil on me,  Rickey Bobby.

Horton starting once per week from April and averaging 5 IP/GS would have him between 130-140 by end of season.  He'll likely be shy of that 5 IP/GS mark in Iowa if last year is any indication, so if the target is roughly 130 IP then he's basically on track to do that without any adjustments in a minor league season.

So with that baseline, how do we adjust for any MLB impact.  As a reliever, this is done by default, pitching even only in September in relief would likely leave him with the bullets needed to be part of the MLB pen through any postseason run.  As a starter, the first consideration is if he can still start 1x/week, Counsell + the existing depth would leave me optimistic that would be still possible, so then you need to account for any postseason impact.  He's very unlikely to be a 2x/series starter, so you maybe skip him or delay him a few days once a month or so which gets you pretty close, assuming he's a 5 and dive starter this year at the MLB level(a fair assumption in a pennant race/postseason).  There are other permutations, but they're of the type that you can't really plan workload around(Horton goes supernova on Iowa, injury ravaged MLB rotation).

So to tl;dr it, if by the end of April Horton looks like a guy who is gonna force his way to the MLB rotation by the trade deadline(which means not only his performance but performance of the MLB rotation, Wesneski, Brown, etc), then you build in some break points over May and June to allow for the possibility of him starting postseason games.  Otherwise I think you just kinda let him do his thing similar to last year, and consider him as a potential bullpen weapon for the stretch run/postseason if that's deemed prudent.

I think he'll be up well before the trade deadline. Looking at Horton, he had 35 IP under his belt by June 15th last year. I assume he will be kept around that number in 2024...slow ramp up and keeping the innings off. If we are saying ~130 IP on the season (which feels like the number) that gives him 95 innings to play with from June 15th through the end of the year. Again, quick mathing, but that gives him about 17 starts (assuming he averages around 5.5 innings per start or so) the rest of the year. Justin Steele made 18 starts from June 17 - the end of the season, and I suspect the Cubs can tinker with hybrid 6-man rotations to give a break here or there. 

Overall, while I think June 1st is the first time we can start to maybe think about a Cade Horton call-up, I think June 15th and on begins a true "Cade Horton Watch" for me where any time after that, he could realistically get the call for good. Injuries, how the Cubs are playing and how Horton is doing (though I really think he's going to have little issues this season in the MiLB) will play a role here and I don't think it's as simple as "June 15th, mark your calendar", but I think mid-late-June is probably the time to start looking for it.

The Dodgers have worked for years doing things like this. They're very deliberate on limiting starting pitchers to roughly 5 innings in the minors, and then transitioning starting pitchers into long relief roles. The Cubs, IMO, follow the Dodgers in this line of thinking. It's hard to tell what's specific, or what the limit is (as we don't know the number a team sets), so exact "proof" is impossible, only inference, but I do believe other teams are using this line of thinking. 

10 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

The Dodgers have worked for years doing things like this. They're very deliberate on limiting starting pitchers to roughly 5 innings in the minors, and then transitioning starting pitchers into long relief roles. The Cubs, IMO, follow the Dodgers in this line of thinking. It's hard to tell what's specific, or what the limit is (as we don't know the number a team sets), so exact "proof" is impossible, only inference, but I do believe other teams are using this line of thinking. 

It does make a lot of sense really. Why waste innings in April, May and June if you know he is only going to pitch 100 innings, or whatever. Start him later, let him get the innings when it is most important. 

2 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

It does make a lot of sense really. Why waste innings in April, May and June if you know he is only going to pitch 100 innings, or whatever. Start him later, let him get the innings when it is most important. 

Entirely. If the Cubs think Cade Horton is among their 4 best SP's, it's best to use those innings at the end of the season when they may matter more (in playoff situations).

14 minutes ago, The20thK said:

It feels like one of those things that is so obvious that it makes you wonder why this hasn’t always been the way? Or “why I didn’t think of it?”. Lol

The issue is if you want him to throw 100 innings do you build that into the regular season or do you account for post season. So do you only pitch him 75 with the thought of another 25 in the post season? But what if there is no post season. Then he only pitches 75 innings. However if you pitch him 100 and then make the playoffs is he not on the playoff roster? I know the Nationals shut down Strasburg one year. That didn’t really work too well, did it? 

35 minutes ago, The20thK said:

It feels like one of those things that is so obvious that it makes you wonder why this hasn’t always been the way? Or “why I didn’t think of it?”. Lol

I'd imagine it's a combination of a few things. We live in a more forward thinking game today where pitcher and player health is more en vogue; teams are hyper aware of pitching injuries in a way even 30 years ago we were only just starting to think about. Maximizing innings is far more important today than it was previously.

Secondly, with the invention/integration of things like pitch labs and technology across the sport, development has moved from the binary "on the mound or not developing" more to things like visualizations, data, and the like. You don't have to watch a guy throw a slider over and over again to decide how it moves...you can throw it in the lab a few times, get the RPM on the spin rate, the horizontal and vertical movement, and you've got a wealth of information; more than the former with significantly less done by the pitcher. So you only need a guy to throw 3 IP in April in Iowa versus going 6 IP every time.