Article: It's Come Down to This: Cody Bellinger vs. Matt Chapman

[Stratos]

The only 2 ways this team can get better is by increasing spending efficiency (increasing surplus) or increasing total spending (payroll).

The latter probably isn't going to happen, they've never spent significantly over the LT.

[squally1313]

16 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

What the hell are you talking about. There are plenty of long-tenured Cubs and weathered vets on the roster.

The goalposts keep moving. I mean, Zobrist, Heyward, Lackey, and Chapman weren't even on the 2015 team. Travis Wood gave you all of 1.2 fWAR in 2015 and 2016 (all in 2016!). They brought the kids up in 2015, let them sink or swim (KB and Russell have over 500 PAs as rookies, first time for Soler over 100 PAs, rushed Schwarber up), and then figured out where they wanted to supplement from there. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

As an aside: the 2016 team was one of if not the most dominant team of most of our lifetimes.  The Cubs should aspire to consistent dominance, but doing roster comparisons as if the 2016 team is the bar is always going to be an exercise in futility.

 

To that end, given the composition of the roster, the current roster building dynamics in the CBA, and the upper bound of what's likely from a spending perspective, the way to consistent dominance is likely going to be real but not massive improvements each year(squally has made a similar point repeatedly).  I think it's fair to hope they could have made a larger leap this year, but the difference in what was reasonable and where they're likely to end the offseason is a lot smaller than a lot of disappointed folks have implied.

[squally1313]

3 hours ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

squally has made a similar point

3 hours ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

repeatedly

[Tryptamine]

4 hours ago, squally1313 said:

Dansby projected for 25th, Hoerner for 31st. For anyone who's curious, Happ is 83rd, Busch is 89th, Seiya is 96th in the top 100. So yeah, 7 in the top 100 would be pretty impressive, and more than the Dodgers (5) and Braves (6). However, that again makes the lack of top end talent pretty glaring given that we knew the huge gap in overall talent. Dodgers go 4, 18, 20, 43, 48, Braves go 1, 16, 21, 37, 39, 52. 

Someone's projections suck.

[squally1313]

9 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Someone's projections suck.

29th in wRC, by far the best offensive projection on the team (Chapman 62, Happ 89, Busch 98, Morel 140, lol Cody 152, Mervis 153, Dansby 162). Just hate his base running and defense.

[Stratos]

3 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

Someone's projections suck.

For some reason all the projection outlets have Seiya at around -9 defensive run value next season, down from the -3.6 he put up last year and -3.0 in 2022.  I wonder if they project him to DH a bunch especially if Bellinger is signed and PCA comes back up at some point during the season?

ZiPS offensive projections for him match what he did last year:  124 wRC+.  They also project him to play only 136 games, which is reasonable.  I don't think they should dock him so much on the glove like they did, he's still probably 3 WAR player.

[Stratos]

8 hours ago, squally1313 said:

Dansby projected for 25th, Hoerner for 31st. For anyone who's curious, Happ is 83rd, Busch is 89th, Seiya is 96th in the top 100. So yeah, 7 in the top 100 would be pretty impressive, and more than the Dodgers (5) and Braves (6). However, that again makes the lack of top end talent pretty glaring given that we knew the huge gap in overall talent. Dodgers go 4, 18, 20, 43, 48, Braves go 1, 16, 21, 37, 39, 52. 

Cubs did finish 3rd in NL in runs scored last year, albiet the gap between the Cubs and those 2 teams was huge, over 100 runs each.  Pitching and inconsistency was the issue.

Cubs have a chance to top their runs scored from last year if they sign Bellinger, with better output from 1B and DH, and Amaya probably hits better than Barnhart, though Amaya hit really bad in the latter part of the year.

Braves have good players at almost every position and elite players at at least 4 positions, and have a big advantage at catcher than us, which is now probably going to be our weakest position this year.

[Old Time Cub Fan]

I don't know why they can't add both. Adding just one is not an addition to last years roster, but a replacement. There were times last year when they had trouble scoring runs, They weren't consistent. With both in lineup and Morel at DH, they would have a dynamite lineup. You want to take the division and make hay in post season, go all out!

 

[Rcal10]

46 minutes ago, Old Time Cub Fan said:

I don't know why they can't add both. Adding just one is not an addition to last years roster, but a replacement. There were times last year when they had trouble scoring runs, They weren't consistent. With both in lineup and Morel at DH, they would have a dynamite lineup. You want to take the division and make hay in post season, go all out!

 

For 24’ and maybe even 25’ that works well. But I don’t think that idea ages very well after that. I guess if they could get each on a 4 year deal that wouldn’t be bad. But I don’t think they can. I also don’t think they can fit both in and stay under the $257M line for LT purposes. And I highly doubt they go over that line.