Chicago Bears offseason

[WrigleyField 22]

1 hour ago, Rex Buckingham said:

The "Packers plan" only worked because they had HOF QBs in place. Mahomet did the same thing, with Alex Smith playing pretty dang well. Smith threw for over 4000 yards, 26 TDs and only 5 INTs in 15 games that year while rushing for over 300 yards as KC went 9-6. Hard to bench a guy playing like that. 

Fields hasn't shown he can replicate Smith's performance or even a close facsimile, let alone that of Rodgers or Favre

I'm not sure the floor of acceptable bridge has to be any higher than "better than a median highly drafted rookie" which is pretty dang low.  But I do think it's somewhat pointless to bring in a bridge starter just to do that in most cases.  In this case, Fields clears both criteria just fine.  The issue, which I'm not totally discounting, but just think is overrated is the lockerroom stuff and the human nature.  And of course the actual opportunity cost verse a trade will matter.

Edited January 30, 2024 by WrigleyField 22

[Hairyducked Idiot]

6 minutes ago, WrigleyField 22 said:

How many snaps of Minshew did you watch?

Not as many as I hope to watch next year if the alternative is Justin Fields.

[raw]

9 minutes ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

They had the same number of starts.

Fields is the worst i've ever seen at turning called passes into non-attempts. Everyone is going to have more attempts than him in similar playing time.

So it IS a vibes/style thing?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

2 minutes ago, raw said:

So it IS a vibes/style thing?

No. It's stats. You were wrong about the stats.  And film if you watch that too.

People want to cut this enlightened middle where "OK, we have to move on and draft Williams, but Fields isn't *really* that bad."

He really is that bad.

Edited January 30, 2024 by Hairyducked Idiot

[raw]

1 minute ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

No. It's stats. You were wrong about the stats.  And film if you watch that too.

People want to cut this enlightened middle where "OK, we have to move on and draft Williams, but Fields isn't *really* that bad."

He really is that bad.

How was I wrong? You gave 2 viable stats, ignoring literally every other one that favored Fields. And nobody is saying any of the horsefeathers you think "people want" to do. All I'm saying is he's AT WORST the same as Gardner Minshew, and that it's very stupid to want to pay Minshew potentially 2-3x as much money in 2024, because that literally means you just are going off of vibes and style of play. 

Fields really is that bad. Minshew really is just as bad, if not marginally worse, and will cost more money. 

[Hairyducked Idiot]

1 minute ago, raw said:

How was I wrong? You gave 2 viable stats, ignoring literally every other one that favored Fields. And nobody is saying any of the horsefeathers you think "people want" to do. All I'm saying is he's AT WORST the same as Gardner Minshew, and that it's very stupid to want to pay Minshew potentially 2-3x as much money in 2024, because that literally means you just are going off of vibes and style of play. 

Fields really is that bad. Minshew really is just as bad, if not marginally worse, and will cost more money. 

Are you suffering from dementia?

*you* gave 2 stats. I gave half a dozen.

[raw]

Just now, Hairyducked Idiot said:

Are you suffering from dementia?

*you* gave 2 stats. I gave half a dozen.

You gave 5, one of which was passing yards. Another was QBR which was a made up stat by ESPN that tells us that Joe Burrow has never been a top 10 QB in the league.

And the 2 stats I gave supported YOUR side, one was QB wins, which is not as dumb as using passing yards for a 120 attempt difference.

But you know all this and continue to argue because you are Kyle. 

And I commented without making fun of you or a health condition, because I can disagree with an adult.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

6 minutes ago, raw said:

You gave 5, one of which was passing yards. Another was QBR which was a made up stat by ESPN that tells us that Joe Burrow has never been a top 10 QB in the league.

And the 2 stats I gave supported YOUR side, one was QB wins, which is not as dumb as using passing yards for a 120 attempt difference.

But you know all this and continue to argue because you are Kyle. 

And I commented without making fun of you or a health condition, because I can disagree with an adult.

You're trying to dance because you know, deep down, the facts don't support you, you just don't *like* the conclusion.

The moment you tried to play off Fields' low attempts issue as a "style issue" or whatever is the moment I knew you weren't taking this exercise with any hint of honesty.

Edited January 30, 2024 by Hairyducked Idiot

[WrigleyField 22]

Wait, can we circle back. Does Kyle think Fields passed up the entire 120 pass attempt difference?

 

And to be clear, you don't care about any running advantage (because vibes) right?

[WrigleyField 22]

I'm more open to QBr as a real than raw, but in years with more than two starts its

44, 44, 59 for Minshew and

26, 56, 46 for Fields

So Minshew is coming off his best QBr and Fields a slight QBR regression, but in many stats Minshew had his worst year.  

I don't know exactly how we should scale/weight this, but it feels like 2024 expectations would probably have a ton of crossover on the bell curves, and Fields may well be weighted more  favorably on a expectation curve.

In a world where Maye and Caleb disappear tomorrow, I'm not really sure what Minshew or any average FA QB is supposed to solve over Fields.  Regrettably I might have to concede Cousins as the best target (no doubt helped by the fact Fields trade value was surely helped by the mysterious disappearance of two high quality prospects).

 

Edit - possible I'm being harsh on Daniels, but in many areas he's basically a Fields type so youre not escaping the general style if that's the concern, just hoping you get a re-do where you don't actively harm the develoment.  JJ and Penix are fine as late first round prospects if that's where they go, but it's not like I'd lose sleep passing them up and evaluating the next draft class either.  Although I do have sentimental reasons that would make me the most annoying JJ-stan if they somehow went that route - but objectively that would be an absurd choice.

Anyways tldr, is another year of Fields vs those other guys is a much a timing question as anything else.

Edited January 30, 2024 by WrigleyField 22

[WrigleyField 22]

1 hour ago, WrigleyField 22 said:

Wait, can we circle back. Does Kyle think Fields passed up the entire 120 pass attempt difference?

 

And to be clear, you don't care about any running advantage (because vibes) right?

Answering some of the data on PA discrepancy here...

Fields had 100 less dropbacks.  So I guess 20 of his less pass attempts were on him (presumably sacks-bad- and some scrambles-maybe a mixed bag?)

 

Why did he have so many less drop backs. Play calling seemingly a role of run/pass.  But also he just took way less snaps. Maybe because Indy stayed on field longer and got more plays? But on a team level (without trying to do work of breaking out Bagent's and Richardson's share), the Bears offense averaged longer drives, more plays, more points, and comparable yards.  Perhaps underscoring a phenomonem we can chalk up in part to variance in overall game circumstance and pace?

(in case it wasn't clear here from the broad numbers, the Colts had 12 extra possessions on offense. Which would roughly make up the ~5 snap per game difference of Minshew v Fields in full games played. To the extent this IS sytilistic, are we sure it's inherently bad? Probably neutral on it's own)

 

Anyways ymmv on how to judge Fields ~1.5 plays per game of passed up attempts (granted also on fewer attempts) against the entire picture of play.

 

Edit - oh and the 13 starts is really like 14.6 games verse 12.5 games.  No doubt a partial factor in total snap (and pass) discrepancy.

Edited January 30, 2024 by WrigleyField 22

[UMFan83]

Omg how did Kyle manage to do this AGAIN?

[CubinNY]

13 hours ago, WrigleyField 22 said:

QB3 may be taking it a bit too far.  I mean I guess you kind of have to chose early and either give him all the early reps early or not and commit to a slow development, but at the absolute worst case expectation if you planned to bench Williams is that he's QB3 for like 4-6 weeks max. After that point, I'd really expect he can take over for injury even if the plan was to sit him. But the gameplan may have to adjust (as opposed to the 2021 plan with Fields when he got inserted earlier than planned against Cleveland and the plan was "Eh horsefeathers it, run it back with the Dalton O")

Any scenario where Fields is still on the team is a bad scenario if they want to win games next year. 

[WrigleyField 22]

23 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Any scenario where Fields is still on the team is a bad scenario if they want to win games next year. 

To the extent that's accurate I'm not sure there is a truely good scenario at QB and 2024 wins outside of 1 guy.

 

Rookie QBs winning tends to be hit or miss

Replacement level fringe starters tends to be hit or miss

 

Cousins is probably the only realistic QB target who would give a high degree of certainty on strong QB play in 2024.  Obviously I'd feel good about Caleb or Mayes long term prospects, but who knows year 1 as day 1 starter. If you're lucky they're a Stroud, but not exactly a "good plan" for winning if you are playing the averages.

 

Fields?  Passable option for a team trying to win 10ish games and make playoffs (given the entire context of the roster and resources)

 

[minnesotacubsfan]

8 hours ago, UMFan83 said:

Omg how did Kyle manage to do this AGAIN?

Dont feed the Idiot

 

 

[Tryptamine]

9 hours ago, UMFan83 said:

Omg how did Kyle manage to do this AGAIN?

Like a moth to the flame, any mention of Fields or Mervis will summon Kyle without fail.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

5 hours ago, WrigleyField 22 said:

To the extent that's accurate I'm not sure there is a truely good scenario at QB and 2024 wins outside of 1 guy.

 

Rookie QBs winning tends to be hit or miss

Replacement level fringe starters tends to be hit or miss

 

Cousins is probably the only realistic QB target who would give a high degree of certainty on strong QB play in 2024.  Obviously I'd feel good about Caleb or Mayes long term prospects, but who knows year 1 as day 1 starter. If you're lucky they're a Stroud, but not exactly a "good plan" for winning if you are playing the averages.

 

Fields?  Passable option for a team trying to win 10ish games and make playoffs (given the entire context of the roster and resources)

 

Fields is a much worse quarterback than you think he is 

[WrigleyField 22]

1 minute ago, username said:

Do you take joy in constantly saying the same thing over and over and over and over?  I think everyone on this board knows where you stand on Fields -- and I say that as someone who is fairly new here.  

Hi welcome to nsbb.  All the legacy old time members here exist on a spectrum between pedantic pains in the asses (like me) to Autism Spectrum Disorder (like Kyle aka Hairyducked Idiot).  No, he doesn't really tire. And we'll push back pretty far until we give up too. Does it bring any of us actual joy? Probably not. 

 

Friendly reminder the majority of us here agree on Caleb to Bears (maybe Maye for Kyle as 1a/1b) as the optimal plan and we're debating merely about how much less optimal Fields is than that.  It's a weird culture here.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I do occasionally get tired of arguing about it.

So I don't open up my Internet Box, go to the site for sports discussion, click on the sub forum for Chicago Bears offseason discussion, and force myself to read posts about that subject.

 

 

 

 

[CubinNY]

1 hour ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

Fields is a much worse quarterback than you think he is 

How do you know how worse of a QB he thinks Fields is? 

Replaceable is the bottom bin, the rest is a different flavor of suck that you want to argue about. That's where Fields resides.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

24 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

How do you know how worse of a QB he thinks Fields is? 

 

 

Quote

Fields?  Passable option for a team trying to win 10ish games and make playoffs

 

[Bertz]

This is...uhh...not especially subtle

 

[WrigleyField 22]

Thats a horoscope quote. Look at the comments, both "sides" are claiming victory lol

Edited January 30, 2024 by WrigleyField 22

[Thusly Boned]

33 minutes ago, WrigleyField 22 said:

Thats a horoscope quote. Look at the comments, both "sides" are claiming victory lol

Most of it is, but the quick delivery bit says Caleb and screams "not Justin" to me.

Edited January 30, 2024 by XZero77

[Soul]

I would have expected a QB coach to emphasize quick decisions and accuracy.  Ability to read defenses and call plays at the line.

Less emphasis on “swagger”