Cubs offseason chit chat...

[Backtobanks]

2 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Hey, if Houston does sign Hader does that maybe free up Bregman? I know it was mentioned earlier. Isn’t he and Alruve a free agent next year. Signing Hader pushes them over the first LT threshold. Any chance they won’t want to be there, or know they won’t sign Bregman next year? 

We can hope,

 

[Bertz]

7 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Hey, if Houston does sign Hader does that maybe free up Bregman? I know it was mentioned earlier. Isn’t he and Alruve a free agent next year. Signing Hader pushes them over the first LT threshold. Any chance they won’t want to be there, or know they won’t sign Bregman next year? 

I think what's far more likely is that the next year, maybe two, are being viewed as a "Last Dance" sort of deal before they enter another slash and burn cycle.

[Rcal10]

2 minutes ago, Backtobanks said:

We can hope,

 

He cost $20M and is on the last year of his deal. I know BBTV isn’t always right about a guys value, but they don’t have his SV particularly high. I would think if the Cubs wanted to put together a package for him they could. Of course this is all possible only if they want to move him. But that was rumored early this spring. I would think a package they would consider for Alonso would be pretty similar for Bregman. (In value anyway)

[Rcal10]

1 minute ago, Bertz said:

I think what's far more likely is that the next year, maybe two, are being viewed as a "Last Dance" sort of deal before they enter another slash and burn cycle.

Maybe. In fact, probably. But if believe the Cubs are going to be very active or the most active team the rest of the winter and spring, this would definitely be considered very active.😬

[Backtobanks]

1 hour ago, Tim said:

Man, I wish all those kids would just get off your lawn already.

I admit that I'm a crabby, old guy that is getting crabbier by the hour waiting for the Cubs to either spend the money necessary or trade some prospects to make this an elite team.  Prospects are great to have, if you want to wait to see if they will be productive ML players.  The Cubs have the assets (money and trade bait) to make this year's team into a 90+ win team and enough prospects to keep it going for more years.  Why wait?

[Jason Ross]

10 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Maybe. In fact, probably. But if believe the Cubs are going to be very active or the most active team the rest of the winter and spring, this would definitely be considered very active.😬

I don't see how the Cubs and the Astros could even match up. The Astros won't sign Hader and then turn Bregman into rookies unlikely to help in 2024...pretty counterintuitive. Not sure the Astros would be jazzed at Morel being the headline, either.

The Astros signing Hader is probably a sign there is no chance in hell MLB talent is walking out the door.

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, squally1313 said:

• Drury Zips: .245/.295/.435, 98 OPS+, -3 defense
• Wisdom Zips: .212/.300/.455, 103 OPS+, -3 defense
• Chapman Zips: .243/.333/.453, 117 OPS+, +8 defense

 

Where do you find ZIP projections?  They don't seem to up on Fangraphs besides the team articles they've done.

I'm not going to argue Chapman isn't the better player, but he's also 31 and will come at a over twice the AAV cost and probably at least 4x the length of contract at a position where we have several other current options including a few good prospects that may be ready by next year.  Chapman is the best option for 2024 but we aren't signing him for 1 year.

If the Cubs are willing to go over the LT then we can legitimate the signing, but if not then it gets harder.

[LBiittner]

53 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Hey, if Houston does sign Hader does that maybe free up Bregman? I know it was mentioned earlier. Isn’t he and Alruve a free agent next year. Signing Hader pushes them over the first LT threshold. Any chance they won’t want to be there, or know they won’t sign Bregman next year? 

3rdbase obsession?

[Rcal10]

5 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

3rdbase obsession?

Good player obsession. 

[Jason Ross]

Sincerely hope the Cubs are "other teams".

[Stratos]

14 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Sincerely hope the Cubs are "other teams".

There's some appeal there but also an extreme flyball pitcher, which isn't easy to fundamentally change.  Also an unsustainable BABIP last year.  Steamer projections are very average (3.80 ERA).

[Tryptamine]

I may be the only one, but outside of Hader and Robertson, Ryan Brasier is my pick. I'd very much like Stephenson, but for cost and performance, Brasier is definitely my guy. I also really really wanted Staumont, but that didn't happen unfortunately. 

[Jfoley89]

11 hours ago, Backtobanks said:

I admit that I'm a crabby, old guy that is getting crabbier by the hour waiting for the Cubs to either spend the money necessary or trade some prospects to make this an elite team.  Prospects are great to have, if you want to wait to see if they will be productive ML players.  The Cubs have the assets (money and trade bait) to make this year's team into a 90+ win team and enough prospects to keep it going for more years.  Why wait?

I kinda feel like this was the argument in 2019, but then we traded the good prospects for the wrong ML talent, kept the wrong ones, and then didn't spend the money. I can live with waiting if it means being sustainably good long term.

[Backtobanks]

1 hour ago, Jfoley89 said:

I kinda feel like this was the argument in 2019, but then we traded the good prospects for the wrong ML talent, kept the wrong ones, and then didn't spend the money. I can live with waiting if it means being sustainably good long term.

The problem with waiting for prospects is that it doesn't necessarily mean being sustainably good long term,  It might turn out that way if they all succeed at the ML level, but the chances of that happening are very low.  Meanwhile, you've lost 2-3 years of winning baseball games while you wait for them to develop.  The "reported " players available this year in trade or FA include Bieber, Naylor, Hoskins, Clase, Kim, etc. and any or all of them would make this team NL Central favorites for a sustainably good long term.

[Jfoley89]

32 minutes ago, Backtobanks said:

The problem with waiting for prospects is that it doesn't necessarily mean being sustainably good long term,  It might turn out that way if they all succeed at the ML level, but the chances of that happening are very low.  Meanwhile, you've lost 2-3 years of winning baseball games while you wait for them to develop.  The "reported " players available this year in trade or FA include Bieber, Naylor, Hoskins, Clase, Kim, etc. and any or all of them would make this team NL Central favorites for a sustainably good long term.

Hoskins makes sense on a short term DH contract. Naylor kind of does, but then why trade for Busch? Bieber does little for me when there are better pitchers still available for just money. Clase is intriguing, but he seemed to be regressing last year too.  I'd prefer to spend money with where we're at on the curve, and there's not a lot of point to me for trading the farm for guys who aren't legitimate stars. 

[Rcal10]

32 minutes ago, Jfoley89 said:

Hoskins makes sense on a short term DH contract. Naylor kind of does, but then why trade for Busch? Bieber does little for me when there are better pitchers still available for just money. Clase is intriguing, but he seemed to be regressing last year too.  I'd prefer to spend money with where we're at on the curve, and there's not a lot of point to me for trading the farm for guys who aren't legitimate stars. 

The last interview I saw with Hawkins, he said Busch could go to third. They did say he was their first baseman, however that could be a comment based on how the team is currently constructed. So they could conceivably go after a 1st baseman and move Busch. That opens them up for Naylor, Alonso, Hoskins, Belt. I am not argue this as good or bad. I have done that enough. Just explaining how they can add someone like btb suggested. 

[Bertz]

Quote

But more will be needed. Robert Stephenson, Phil Maton, David Robertson and Ryne Stanek are all names to watch as the Cubs look for another high-leverage arm to pair with Adbert Alzolay and Julian Merryweather in the late innings.

From Sharma.  I STG if they sign Phil Maton and hang the Mission Accomplished banner I'm going to lose my mind.

[Rcal10]

53 minutes ago, Bertz said:

From Sharma.  I STG if they sign Phil Maton and hang the Mission Accomplished banner I'm going to lose my mind.

I one hand, I do think they are only going to get one more pen arm. Preferably a guy who they use in the 8th inning. I feel a guy like Maton is more of a 6th-7th inning guy. He is a decent reliever, but not a sure shut down guy. But maybe they value him more than that. So he wouldn’t shock me.
But, on the other hand, I feel if they were going to add one more pen arm it would be a lefty. or it would be a more sure 8th inning guy like Stephenson. 
I wouldn’t be thrilled with Maton being the only move they make for the pen, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it was. 

[squally1313]

16 hours ago, Stratos said:

Where do you find ZIP projections?  They don't seem to up on Fangraphs besides the team articles they've done.

I'm not going to argue Chapman isn't the better player, but he's also 31 and will come at a over twice the AAV cost and probably at least 4x the length of contract at a position where we have several other current options including a few good prospects that may be ready by next year.  Chapman is the best option for 2024 but we aren't signing him for 1 year.

If the Cubs are willing to go over the LT then we can legitimate the signing, but if not then it gets harder.

Yeah hoping they all get dumped in one easy spot when they wrap up the last couple teams here, but I've been having to go to individual team previews to find them for the time being. 

Chapman being the best option for 2024, a year we are very much trying to make the playoffs, and also the year we're currently in, is more or less the most important argument out there for signing him. And, realistically, he's still the best option for 2025 until proven otherwise.

No one seems to make this argument for Bellinger and PCA, even though Bellinger is only projected to provide one more win in 2024 than PCA, and PCA comes with having sustained success at AA and decent results at AAA. Chapman is projected for 3.6 next year and we shouldn't sign him to keep a spot open for a guy with 70 AA PAs in 2025, Bellinger is projected for 2.7 and is our best long term option for CF even though we have a guy already projected for 1.7 in 2024? Or is the argument to sign neither?

[WhyCantWeWin]

Moore is one of the guys I was hoping they'd target coming into the offseason, wonder what he's asking for. All those other names mentioned as bullpen targets are underwhelming

[Rcal10]

6 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Yeah hoping they all get dumped in one easy spot when they wrap up the last couple teams here, but I've been having to go to individual team previews to find them for the time being. 

Chapman being the best option for 2024, a year we are very much trying to make the playoffs, and also the year we're currently in, is more or less the most important argument out there for signing him. And, realistically, he's still the best option for 2025 until proven otherwise.

No one seems to make this argument for Bellinger and PCA, even though Bellinger is only projected to provide one more win in 2024 than PCA, and PCA comes with having sustained success at AA and decent results at AAA. Chapman is projected for 3.6 next year and we shouldn't sign him to keep a spot open for a guy with 70 AA PAs in 2025, Bellinger is projected for 2.7 and is our best long term option for CF even though we have a guy already projected for 1.7 in 2024? Or is the argument to sign neither?

This is a very solid arguement for Chapman being the main signing, not Bellinger. Chapman also fills a bigger hole, tbh. Center can be filled by Tauchman at around league average and/or PCA, who is a top prospect closer to the majors. The only issue is, they said they want to find someone who hits right handed pitching better. Not sure Chapman would be the choice over Bellinger. However, I do now see how Chapman makes as much sense as Bellinger. 

[LBiittner]

4 minutes ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

Moore is one of the guys I was hoping they'd target coming into the offseason, wonder what he's asking for. All those other names mentioned as bullpen targets are underwhelming

I'm rather interested in Caleb Thielbar @3.2m contract for a surplus youngster. 

[Rcal10]

3 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

I'm rather interested in Caleb Thielbar @3.2m contract for a surplus youngster. 

Why would you want to give anything away for a 36 year old pitcher when you can sign a similar pitcher, in Moore, without giving any assets away? What do you like about Thielbar that has him so much better than Moore? 

[LBiittner]

4 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

This is a very solid arguement for Chapman being the main signing, not Bellinger. Chapman also fills a bigger hole, tbh. Center can be filled by Tauchman at around league average and/or PCA, who is a top prospect closer to the majors. The only issue is, they said they want to find someone who hits right handed pitching better. Not sure Chapman would be the choice over Bellinger. However, I do now see how Chapman makes as much sense as Bellinger. 

I'm really concerned if Belli goes else where, which detour Jed follows? 

Just a feeling of mine. Ricketts won't go over the LT until possibly the trading deadline depending how close they are to Cincy and the Cards

[Rcal10]

4 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

I'm really concerned if Belli goes else where, which detour Jed follows? 

Just a feeling of mine. Ricketts won't go over the LT until possibly the trading deadline depending how close they are to Cincy and the Cards

Others have repeatedly pointed out how stupid it would be to not go over the LT this year because of that they did last year. Of course, doesn’t mean they do go over it. So I assumed you want Thielbar more is you think Morrow will cost too much. Ok, based on your scenario it makes sense. The other problem is, why would the Twins trade him? To me, if Jed doesn’t go over the LT this year it is going to be tough to be the favorite in the central. And there is no reason not to go over. But you might be right, unfortunately.

 

Also, if Belli goes elsewhere I would be ok with Chapman. Sure, the offense would struggle more, but him at 3rd and PCA in center and you have the best defense In baseball. Might win a few more lower scoring games. 

Edited January 19, 2024 by Rcal10