Cubs offseason chit chat...

[Jason Ross]

Just now, LBiittner said:

In my mind, The other firstbase could be Belli  part time, most time cf,  like 2023. Wisdom also factors there as well.

I appreciate Jed and his intelligent spending, which will keep fan cost down to affordable levels.

It's just difficult accepting the fact right now the biggest deal a chicago team affords itself is $13m per year deal (hello KC & Cinci)

 

 

Yeah, I get some of the frustrations. With that said, I think the Cubs are off to a good start. They did a really nice and creative deal with Imanaga and I actually really like the Busch trade. The Cubs lack the elite player yet, and it doesn't seem as though they'll have one next year at the start of the season. But it feels like the Cubs are still looking to get stuff done. Figure the Cubs have brought in three players already, and claim to basically be in the 4th/5th inning of their offseason. Maybe three more MLB caliber players. Could be two of three very good players. 

[17 Seconds]

46 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

No more addition to rotation. Welp, no Lazardo. No Cease. No Bieber. No Montgomery. No Snell. 

Also no firstbase additions after declaring Busch is going to get a solid opportunity there. No Hoskins. No Naylor. No Belt. No Turner. 

So it appears to be Belli or bust for this major market team?

We ❤️ Thrifty Nickle Jed. 

 

what a weird interpretation

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

The team is going to want some quality options stashed at Iowa.  Part of the problem last year was that attrition hit Iowa pretty hard and then there was no one besides Palencia/Little to come up when the MLB pen was struggling.

I'd expect the pen to look like this

CL - Alzolay

SU - Merryweather, TBD acquisition 

MR - Leiter*, Almonte, Cuas*

LR - Smyly, Assad*

The guys with asterisks are not set in stone

Leiter - Needs to show out in spring training.  If he doesn't he's likely to be cut a la Wicks last year

Cuas - He has minor league options, so he needs to look better than Palenci/Little/etc.

Assad - He's got possibility of being promoted out of this role to the rotation, getting passed up by Wesneski, or doing enough to earn a job but having Counsell decide he doesn't want two long guys.  We know Ross would build the entire pen out of long relievers if he could but Counsell has historically leaned more on 1 IP types

You left Wesneski off your list. While I understand what you are saying, I think Leiter is closer to a sure pen spot than you have him. I am basically suggesting what 1908 said better than I can. A deal that included Wesneski and/or Assad that also had Mervis and/or Canario could make some sense if the Cubs wanted to either clear space on the 40 man roster by taking a young prospect(s) back or wanted to bring in an established major league bat. Then they can add an established pen arm and still have some options in the minors. 
Also, as you pointed out, Counsell might  it want 2 long relief options. All the more reason to deal Assad or Weeneski. 

[LBiittner]

Just now, 17 Seconds said:

what a weird interpretation

I'm a cubfan, thusly my explainable weirdness.

When Jed says no more additions to the rotation, I weirdly assume no starters.

When Jed proclaims Busch gets a trial at first, I'd assume Boras isn't going to push Hoskins our direction.

It's fun being a part of your weird cubdom family hahaha 

[17 Seconds]

Just now, LBiittner said:

I'm a cubfan, thusly my explainable weirdness.

When Jed says no more additions to the rotation, I weirdly assume no starters.

When Jed proclaims Busch gets a trial at first, I'd assume Boras isn't going to push Hoskins our direction.

It's fun being a part of your weird cubdom family hahaha 

1 starter was the plan all along, idk why you expected more. and everything we have heard in the last week or two suggests they are after more than just bellinger. jed explicitly stated that they have multiple moves left.

[LBiittner]

4 minutes ago, 17 Seconds said:

1 starter was the plan all along, idk why you expected more. and everything we have heard in the last week or two suggests they are after more than just bellinger. jed explicitly stated that they have multiple moves left.

I probably got caught up in all the speculation by fellow cubfans here regarding all these trades like glasnow for fringe costs, Bieber for redundant pieces, even getting Cease back. As well as hearing from reporters we're still in on Montgomery. 

[Rcal10]

14 minutes ago, 17 Seconds said:

1 starter was the plan all along, idk why you expected more. and everything we have heard in the last week or two suggests they are after more than just bellinger. jed explicitly stated that they have multiple moves left.

TBF most of the posters at the beginning of the off season were expecting 2 starting pitcher additions. Only since Hottovy suggested only 1, has that been the theme. I do think Jed purposely suggested Busch would play 1st as leverage against Boras with Hoskins. I do think Hoskins is still in play, however.

[LBiittner]

3 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

TBF most of the posters at the beginning of the off season were expecting 2 starting pitcher additions. Only since Hottovy suggested only 1, has that been the theme. I do think Jed purposely suggested Busch would play 1st as leverage against Boras with Hoskins. I do think Hoskins is still in play, however.

I recall some speculated glasnow and a starter from Seattle. Or Bieber and a Monty. How about a imanaga and a kyle Gibson? So many here were deeply invested in their beliefs cubs had to pickup 2 starters because inorder to improve plus replace Stroman. Otherwise they'd be treading water by only picking up one.

[Rcal10]

5 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

I recall some speculated glasnow and a starter from Seattle. Or Bieber and a Monty. How about a imanaga and a kyle Gibson? So many here were deeply invested in their beliefs cubs had to pickup 2 starters because inorder to improve plus replace Stroman. Otherwise they'd be treading water by only picking up one.

Agreed. Doesn’t matter the names you want to put in, at the beginning we were all talking about 2 starters. Changed when Hottovy spoke.

[WhyCantWeWin]

After what they paid for Busch I don't want Hoskins anymore. Kid is 27, give him his chance now. 

[CubinNY]

1 hour ago, LBiittner said:

In my mind, The other firstbase could be Belli  part time, most time cf,  like 2023. Wisdom also factors there as well.

I appreciate Jed and his intelligent spending, which will keep fan cost down to affordable levels.

It's just difficult accepting the fact right now the biggest deal a chicago team affords itself is $13m per year deal (hello KC & Cinci)

 

 

Puke

[Irrelevant Dude]

11 minutes ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

After what they paid for Busch I don't want Hoskins anymore. Kid is 27, give him his chance now. 

He just turned 26, but I agree.

[LBiittner]

2 hours ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Hoyer in another comment said that the Cubs were not precluded in adding another 1b just because they had acquired Busch. And based on the shopping list Hottovy laid out, it was "1 SP". 

I don't see much to complain about on his comments above. The small-market answer is a bit perturbing as is his belief that their goal is "good deals" not just "getting deals done" (sometimes you *have* to get the deal done and it's not peerect). With that said, they could be meant to be "we like to value players at certain levels and we won't sign a player just because" but with the understanding truly elite players require elite contracts, too.

1908, make me feel better about our 2024 opening day rotation.

We subtracted from  2023 rotation = stroman. He had 25 starts. Without looking I'd guess possibly, in todays world, 15 quality starts in 2023? Was all-world during the first half, then got injured. His 2024 cost would've been $21m.

The only addition to our rotation = Imanaga. The most starts for him ever, I believe is 25? He is about one year younger than stroman. His 24 cost will be $13m. An $8m direct savings.

Hopefully imanaga gives us what stroman did in 23.  how does the 24 rotation look improved over 23? 

Many here were projecting 2 veteran additions going into 24 inorder to qualify as a serious contender. 

Let me play devils advocate, if Stroman had opted back in at $21 do you think Jed would've still picked up one free agent pitcher? Or would he fold his hand?

[Bertz]

It's not that complicated.  The team came into the offseason with we think something like $60-70M to spend.  The team had three glaring holes: a starting pitcher, a late inning reliever, and 1B.  There is/were four lesser holes: 3B, CF, a second SP, and a second RP.  

It appears the team intends on filling 5 or 6 of those 7 holes.  Given the youths we have on hand and the exorbitant prices on the market, it's not crazy to forgo the second SP so that you can throw more resources elsewhere.

[LBiittner]

3 minutes ago, Bertz said:

It's not that complicated.  The team came into the offseason with we think something like $60-70M to spend.  The team had three glaring holes: a starting pitcher, a late inning reliever, and 1B.  There is/were four lesser holes: 3B, CF, a second SP, and a second RP.  

It appears the team intends on filling 5 or 6 of those 7 holes.  Given the youths we have on hand and the exorbitant prices on the market, it's not crazy to forgo the second SP so that you can throw more resources elsewhere.

With your projection of 70m, subtracting 13m for imanaga, we still CAN spend about 55m? GREAT !!!

[Tryptamine]

4 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

With your projection of 70m, subtracting 13m for imanaga, we still CAN spend about 55m? GREAT !!!

15M for Imanaga, but yes about 55M. After Bellinger you're probably talking about 28M, RP is probably going to require, conservatively, 10M if they're going after 2 arms. That means you're down to 18M and you haven't touched 3B yet. Remember, you never go all the way up to your limit in FA because you need to leave room to add at the deadline. So that 18M is probably more like 10-12M.

[Bertz]

 

Thought this was interesting re: Morel

[LBiittner]

18 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

15M for Imanaga, but yes about 55M. After Bellinger you're probably talking about 28M, RP is probably going to require, conservatively, 10M if they're going after 2 arms. That means you're down to 18M and you haven't touched 3B yet. Remember, you never go all the way up to your limit in FA because you need to leave room to add at the deadline. So that 18M is probably more like 10-12M.

I'm holding out hope for a Belli signing. 

Last evening was an entertaining way to spend a Friday for an old guy. Was watching Moneyball and flipping to Marquis during commercials to watch introductions of Cub players, both past and present. All the while hoping for Bellinger to walk across the stage for a surprise announcement.

[Rcal10]

25 minutes ago, Bertz said:

 

Thought this was interesting re: Morel

Hard to hear, but it sounds like they want him in the line up. Still a lot of moving parts on this team. If Busch plays first do they go after Hoskins? Or just Bellinger and he plays center with PCA at AAA. Or if Busch struggles Bellinger goes to first. But is Morel strictly a DH or can he play 3rd. Best case scenario is he can do it. Then sign Bellinger and another bat (Hoskins, JD, Soler). My preference would be Hoskins. I think it would be a mistake to just pencil Busch in at first without a solid back up plan . Hoskins would be that solid back up plan, as would Bellinger (but Bellinger cost a lot more).

Edited January 13, 2024 by Rcal10

[Rcal10]

1 minute ago, LBiittner said:

I'm holding out hope for a Belli signing. 

Last evening was an entertaining way to spend a Friday for an old guy. Was watching Moneyball and flipping to Marquis during commercials to watch introductions of Cub players, both past and present. All the while hoping for Bellinger to walk across the stage for a surprise announcement.

I actually think the Cubs will sign Bellinger. 

[Rcal10]

34 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

15M for Imanaga, but yes about 55M. After Bellinger you're probably talking about 28M, RP is probably going to require, conservatively, 10M if they're going after 2 arms. That means you're down to 18M and you haven't touched 3B yet. Remember, you never go all the way up to your limit in FA because you need to leave room to add at the deadline. So that 18M is probably more like 10-12M.

I doubt they add 2 more pen arms. Almonte was one. I think the second will be more established. But I don’t think there will be another one after that. I also think you are pretty high on Bellinger. I think he will be closer to $23M. 
I don’t think that payroll is an absolute top amount. Adding $55M won’t put them to the top of the first LT line. So it isn’t like they have to save some space for mid season additions. I think they will already be over the first threshold, but not close to the second. So no reason to hold money for additional moves at the deadline, aside from Ricketts just not wanting to spend money. 

Edited January 13, 2024 by Rcal10

[Jason Ross]

51 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Hard to hear, but it sounds like they want him in the line up. Still a lot of moving parts on this team. If Busch plays first do they go after Hoskins? Or just Bellinger and he plays center with PCA at AAA. Or if Busch struggles Bellinger goes to first. But is Morel strictly a DH or can he play 3rd. Best case scenario is he can do it. Then sign Bellinger and another bat (Hoskins, JD, Soler). My preference would be Hoskins. I think it would be a mistake to just pencil Busch in at first without a solid back up plan . Hoskins would be that solid back up plan, as would Bellinger (but Bellinger cost a lot more).

I don't think the Cubs traded Jackson Ferris and Zhir Hope because they're overly worried about the backup plans for Michael Busch. You make that kind of trade because you're confident. Doesn't mean the Cubs can't have another 1b, but I don't think they're worried about the backup, either. They still have Mervis (to date), and they've had Morel work at 1b. Maybe you still sign Hoskins, but I'd do so because you think he's the best bet, and the added 1b ability is just gravy.

Nome of that is saying Busch doesn't have some risk, but that the Cubs are likely pretty confident on Busch.

[Jason Ross]

51 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I doubt they add 2 more pen arms. Almonte was one. I think the second will be more established. But I don’t think there will be another one after that. I also think you are pretty high on Bellinger. I think he will be closer to $23M. 
I don’t think that payroll is an absolute top amount. Adding $55M won’t put them to the top of the first LT line. So it isn’t like they have to save some space for mid season additions. I think they will already be over the first threshold, but not close to the second. So no reason to hold money for additional moves at the deadline, aside from Ricketts just not wanting to spend money. 

I think there's almost a zero% chance he gets $23m AAV. He's going to get at least $25m AAV (and thats still probably on the low end) and possibly much, much higher if he gets a short term, high AAV with opt-out thing. 

The only way he gets $23m AAV is if he signs like an 8 or 9 year contract. 

His market is cloudy, but it's Scott Boras. Boras is likely looking at the Bryant deal as a baseline for a 6/7 year contract. Usually what Boras wants, he gets. Even with murky markets.

[Rcal10]

18 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I think there's almost a zero% chance he gets $23m AAV. He's going to get at least $25m AAV (and thats still probably on the low end) and possibly much, much higher if he gets a short term, high AAV with opt-out thing. 

The only way he gets $23m AAV is if he signs like an 8 or 9 year contract. 

His market is cloudy, but it's Scott Boras. Boras is likely looking at the Bryant deal as a baseline for a 6/7 year contract. Usually what Boras wants, he gets. Even with murky markets.

Guess we will see. I think he ends up at a 6 or 7 year deal with and AAV of $23M to $24M. Unless he agrees to a deal with much less years(3 max) I don’t see him at over $25 AAV. 

[Jason Ross]

16 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Guess we will see. I think he ends up at a 6 or 7 year deal with and AAV of $23M to $24M. Unless he agrees to a deal with much less years(3 max) I don’t see him at over $25 AAV. 

I would eat my shoe if Scott Boras allowed that. At 6 years that's under $140m. $20m+ under Brandon Nimmo's total. 

Boras is the best in the business for a reason. He'll get someone to give him $160-$180m. Or get that really high AAV stuff. It might not be Chicago, but it'll be someone. I don't think he's getting this $200m+ deal he was banging his chest about, but he won't lose that much.

I'll put it this way as well: I appreciate Swasnon really wants Bellinger back, but he's probably not helping as much as he thinks he is.