Cubs offseason chit chat...

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, thawv said:

 

I could not disagree more with this line of thinking.  This is the exact time to go after Ohtani.  From a baseball standpoint, and a business standpoint.  They are favorites at this very moment win the central. 

The CBT means nothing this year.  You can count on getting close to 277 if they sign Ohtani.  It doesn't matter if you sign FA's first and then call up prospects or trade for major league players, or call them up and then sign FA's.  You can take it to the bank that they will be well over the threshold this year.  And pushing the 3rd level if they sign O.  They are dropping 75 million next season.  They will go over this year.  And by a lot. 

Signing Ohtani is not going to limit anything in the future.  He will more than pay for his contact. 

 

 

I agree they should spend this year. But where are you getting $75M off the books after next year? 

[Rcal10]

29 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Maeda is super underrated, but if that's what guys of his ilk are getting then scenarios where Jed trades a bunch of young pitching away and needs to backfill the #5 starter spot with a vet get that much less attractive.

What do you think Maeda or guys like him should be making? I just assumed that was what he would get.

[gocubs218]

Yeah 12 million seems pretty fair for Maeda.

[Bertz]

21 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

What do you think Maeda or guys like him should be making? I just assumed that was what he would get.

It's less the $12M and more the 2nd guaranteed year.  Though Gibson was 1 and a club option so maybe Maeda isn't a sign everyone in this tier will get multi-year deals.

[Jason Ross]

Yeah, two years for a 36 year old SP who hasn't topped 106 innings since 2019 borders on scary. Maeda is a fine bet at the back end of a rotation, but you also have to accept you'll need someone else to start 10-14 games in his spot where he is at in his career.

[Rcal10]

22 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Yeah, two years for a 36 year old SP who hasn't topped 106 innings since 2019 borders on scary. Maeda is a fine bet at the back end of a rotation, but you also have to accept you'll need someone else to start 10-14 games in his spot where he is at in his career.

I just see those #4/#5 pitchers all around that $10M to $13M a year. I guess the second year is a bit much. But nothing crazy or totally unexpected to me. 
 

[Jason Ross]

11 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I just see those #4/#5 pitchers all around that $10M to $13M a year. I guess the second year is a bit much. But nothing crazy or totally unexpected to me. 
 

The AAV is fine. I wouldn't bank on 36 and 37 year old Maeda getting more than 200 innings in those two years. Why I wouldn't have signed him to a guaranteed second. That second year can be a big deal (as we're seeing with Mancini, Smyly, Barnhart...), Especially where we are at in the offseason.

Kenta is a pretty solid pitcher. He's also pretty often hurt. The offseason is very young still. I wouldn't be jumping on second year guarantees for back end guys yet.

Edited November 27, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Maeda is 36 in April, does not throw hard, and his last 3 years have gone 100 IP of 3 WAR pace, TJS recovery, 100 IP of 3 WAR pace.  His run prevention lagged his FIP in both of those non-injury seasons, and last year hitters started hitting the ball harder too.  Across the 2 years of his deal, getting 200 IP and 3 WAR would seem like a pretty good outcome, and I struggle to see that outcome getting paid 2/24 as a gross injustice relative to anything we've seen in recent FA deals.

[thawv]

10 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

I agree they should spend this year. But where are you getting $75M off the books after next year? 

I was a little off.  I am using Cot's.  They have their taxe number at about 185 right now.  After the season, they have it at a little under 113 mil.  But after actually looking at it, they don't have the arb numbers in it.  But they are still in a position to go way over

[thawv]

9 hours ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Maeda is 36 in April, does not throw hard, and his last 3 years have gone 100 IP of 3 WAR pace, TJS recovery, 100 IP of 3 WAR pace.  His run prevention lagged his FIP in both of those non-injury seasons, and last year hitters started hitting the ball harder too.  Across the 2 years of his deal, getting 200 IP and 3 WAR would seem like a pretty good outcome, and I struggle to see that outcome getting paid 2/24 as a gross injustice relative to anything we've seen in recent FA deals.

I'm surprised!  He's coming off an 8/25 deal.  It took him 4 years when he was younger to make what he's going to make in one year when he's older.  He'll give them about 40 starts over 2 years.   I'm usually low because teams usually over pay for FA due to bidding.  I just don't see that here.  I was thinking somewhere in the 2/12 or 2/14 range.  And honestly, I would have been more comfortable with a 1/8 deal.  I think that 2 WAR over 2 years is likely.  It's too early in the game to give him a guaranteed 2nd year.  He's a BOTR pitcher.

[ToolDRT]

I’d say that takes them out of Yamamoto 

 

[gocubs218]

Is there an older rotation in baseball? Gray is decent but there is almost zero upside with that rotation they have now. 

[CubinNY]

The Cardinals do have a type. 

[Bertz]

On the one hand, it's objectively hilarious that the Cardinals were like "we need more power arms" and then did this.  On the other hand it's not a bad rotation?  And Mozeliak handed out very few year.  And that's never stopped being a strong group of position players to go with it.

There's some age related risk on both sides of the ball, but they look like a wildcard team.  And they're the division favorites until Jed adds 10ish WAR.

[Jason Ross]

10 minutes ago, Bertz said:

On the one hand, it's objectively hilarious that the Cardinals were like "we need more power arms" and then did this.  On the other hand it's not a bad rotation?  And Mozeliak handed out very few year.  And that's never stopped being a strong group of position players to go with it.

There's some age related risk on both sides of the ball, but they look like a wildcard team.  And they're the division favorites until Jed adds 10ish WAR.

It doesn't feel bad on paper, but also feels very thin. It looks like 3 pretty good arms in Mikolas/Matz/Gray, a bounceback Gibson (who had decent underlyers) and Lance Lynn who looks toast. There's little depth there. It's not bad, but it's so not going to be a strength, either. If this is what the Cubs biggest competition is going to be, they really should be winning this division with proper spending limits and ambitions.

Edited November 27, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[CubinNY]

4 minutes ago, Bertz said:

On the one hand, it's objectively hilarious that the Cardinals were like "we need more power arms" and then did this.  On the other hand it's not a bad rotation?  And Mozeliak handed out very few year.  And that's never stopped being a strong group of position players to go with it.

There's some age related risk on both sides of the ball, but they look like a wildcard team.  And they're the division favorites until Jed adds 10ish WAR.

They're kind of like a late model Mercedes Benz with 89,000 miles. You're hoping that nothing breaks, but as long as it holds together you have a nice automobile. 

[CubinNY]

1 minute ago, 1908_Cubs said:

It doesn't feel bad on paper, but also feels very thin. It looks like 3 pretty good arms in Mikolas/Matz/Gray, two maybe bouncebacks in Flaherty/Gibson (who had decent underlyers) and Lance Lynn who looks toast. There's little depth there. It's not bad, but it's so not going to be a strength, either. If this is what the Cubs biggest competition is going to be, they really should be winning this division with proper spending limits and ambitions.

I don't think Flaherty is with them.

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, CubinNY said:

I don't think Flaherty is with them.

Duh. Brainfart. 

 

Edited November 27, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I like that the Cardinals saw the Mets flame out spectacularly with a rotation full of super old arms who used to be elite and their takeaway was to skip the 'used to be elite' part.

[Bertz]

I was actually just looking at Stephenson this weekend when Hader got brought up.  This feels like the type of guy who is out of Jed's comfort zone to acquire but now with Counsell aboard he might stretch to do it?

[Rcal10]

4 hours ago, thawv said:

I'm surprised!  He's coming off an 8/25 deal.  It took him 4 years when he was younger to make what he's going to make in one year when he's older.  He'll give them about 40 starts over 2 years.   I'm usually low because teams usually over pay for FA due to bidding.  I just don't see that here.  I was thinking somewhere in the 2/12 or 2/14 range.  And honestly, I would have been more comfortable with a 1/8 deal.  I think that 2 WAR over 2 years is likely.  It's too early in the game to give him a guaranteed 2nd year.  He's a BOTR pitcher.

TBF you are always way low in what you think a player will get. This has been the case for years at PSD. And, actually Maeda got exactly what fangraphs predicted. The numbers you are suggesting are again, way too low. I do get the second year was something that may have been avoided. But the $12M annual is in line, and if they had to add a second to get him, it isn’t that bad a contract. He wasn’t going to sign for 2/14. 

[17 Seconds]

the nl central is right there for us to take. don't horsefeathers it up, jed

[chibears55]

20 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

EXACTLY! Now they might not ger him, but they have to try. 
But if nothing else, chibear is proving my point when I said if the cubs did sign him there would be a certain number of fans complaining about the signing. 

I'd only be upset if it were him and nobody else that going to help them win games 

[ToolDRT]

Well, the dream was fun while it lasted, but we all knew deep down is was going to be the Dodgers…

 

 

[Bertz]

17 minutes ago, ToolDRT said:

Well, the dream was fun while it lasted, but we all knew deep down is was going to be the Dodgers…

 

 

Heyward played in 124 games last year, batted 377 times, and only 28 of those were against lefties.  That is a level of platoon protection I've never seen before.  Dave Roberts gets slept on as a manager but that's some really optimal usage to get the most out of a guy.