Rumor: Cubs interested in Pirates Closer Bednar

[Hairyducked Idiot]

3 minutes ago, KCCub said:

I have faith in our pitching infrastructure starting with Carter Hawkins on down. We absolutely couldn’t develop pitching years ago. I understand the point you are making and typically agree to take the big leaguer over a prospect. I personally think Horton is going to be special and I’m not moving him for Bednar/RP.

It's not about the Cubs being good or bad at developing pitching. The late 90s/early 2000s cubs, which make up a chunk of that list, were pretty good at developing pitching.

It's about the inherent volatile nature of prospects, and especially pitching prospects.   

[Hairyducked Idiot]

1 minute ago, JD94 said:

You hate them. I’m only extremely high on Horton and PCA. Brown, Wicks, and Wesneski are likely BORP. I wanted to trade Brennan Davis even when prospect lists had him top 30 in baseball. I’m realistic with what I think. I don’t think every prospect is great. I also listen to people that know way more than I’ll ever know and they all love Cade Horton. I’m very fair. I can ***** about more of our prospects than I praise. 

I'm also high on PCA, give or take. He more or less checks all the boxes;  Not a pitcher, highly thought of by scouts, producing well while being young for the level, has a non-volatile skill set. 

[Tryptamine]

6 minutes ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

You're *so* close to understanding why you shouldn't overvalue very good but non-elite pitching prospects.

Prospect development (especially pitchers) not being linear and what we hope is a nascent Cubs ability to draw value out of unexpected prospects is *exactly* why we don't need to overvalue a guy like Horton.

What exactly is an elite pitching prospect?  Prospects live has Horton as #26 on their midseason list. Is it top 20? 10?  Price/Strasburg? 

[Hairyducked Idiot]

4 minutes ago, JD94 said:

You hate them. I’m only extremely high on Horton and PCA. Brown, Wicks, and Wesneski are likely BORP. I wanted to trade Brennan Davis even when prospect lists had him top 30 in baseball. I’m realistic with what I think. I don’t think every prospect is great. I also listen to people that know way more than I’ll ever know and they all love Cade Horton. I’m very fair. I can ***** about more of our prospects than I praise. 

The most likely scenario for Brown and Wicks is that they are never a consistent part of a MLB rotation. Maybe Wesneski too, but if someone wanted to say that they had him at better than 50/50 to stay in the back of someone's rotation, I wouldn't disagree too hard.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Thanks for posting this, @KCCub! I had completely missed this rumor...

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Just now, Tryptamine said:

What exactly is an elite pitching prospect?  Prospects live has Horton as #26 on their midseason list. Is it top 20? 10?  Price/Strasburg? 

The Price/Strasburg/Prior tier. 

[KCCub]

1 minute ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Thanks for posting this, @KCCub! I had completely missed this rumor...

No problem. I now know it auto adds “Rumor:” to the title lol.

[JD94]

5 minutes ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

You're *so* close to understanding why you shouldn't overvalue very good but non-elite pitching prospects.

Prospect development (especially pitchers) not being linear and what we hope is a nascent Cubs ability to draw value out of unexpected prospects is *exactly* why we don't need to overvalue a guy like Horton.

Dude… you’re saying Horton is not elite? Holy shiiiiiiiid man. 
 

Did you totally ignore the part of my post that brings up the overhauled pitching infrastructure that I gave you examples of it working out? Did you ignore the part about Carter Hawkins being hired and why? Do you see the Cubs spending huge draft capital on pitchers that need “fixing” because they are having major success right now fixing those types of guys? Do you ignore literally everything that’s right in front of your face that the Cubs are doing behind the scenes? Should we trade PCA for Candelario while we are at it? No guarantee PCA will even be good. 

[Tryptamine]

1 minute ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

The Price/Strasburg/Prior tier. 

So basically all but 3 starting pitching prospects in the last 25 years should have been dealt for Bednar.  That's a hot take even by your usual standards.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Just now, JD94 said:

Dude… you’re saying Horton is not elite? Holy shiiiiiiiid man. 
 

Did you totally ignore the part of my post that brings up the overhauled pitching infrastructure that I gave you examples of it working out? Did you ignore the part about Carter Hawkins being hired and why? Do you see the Cubs spending huge draft capital on pitchers that need “fixing” because they are having major success right now fixing those types of guys? Do you ignore literally everything that’s right in front of your face that the Cubs are doing behind the scenes? Should we trade PCA for Candelario while we are at it? No guarantee PCA will even be good. 

Yes. I am saying he is not elite.

Sports has a massive problem with word creep.  Once a word starts getting used, it gets spread to more and more players because fans can't stand the thought of their guy not getting it, and then the word becomes meaningless.  If you're not a no-doubt top-5 prospect in all of baseball as a pitcher, you aren't an elite pitching prospect. You're a very good one.

I didn't ignore any of that. I explained to you why all those things you said actually support my position, not yours.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

4 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

So basically all but 3 starting pitching prospects in the last 25 years should have been dealt for Bednar.  That's a hot take even by your usual standards.

No.

But that's closer to the truth than getting hysterical over the idea of trading a 25-50 prospect for a successful major league pitcher with 3.5 years of control left.

Edited July 30, 2023 by Hairyducked Idiot

[Derwood]

There are too many damn threads

[Hairyducked Idiot]

7 minutes ago, JD94 said:

Should we trade PCA for Candelario while we are at it? No guarantee PCA will even be good. 

If PCA were a more volatile prospect, if Candelario were still in the first half of his pre-FA years of control (with the age to match), and Candelario was a better player than he is, then yes.

[JD94]

6 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Is he really?! I get that Horton is pretty good, I had him #2 in the org entering the season actually IIRC, but this guy's given up 6 HRs and 40% flyballs in just 47.1 High A IP at 21...I can imagine there are 5 pitching prospects across the sport I'd take over him and personally don't even think he's the best or highest ceiling SP prospect in the org

Horton has been working on a 3rd pitch most of the year that’s coming along nicely. Sure there will be growing pains. Guess who else sat between 38% - 48% FB% across A, A+, and AA? Spencer Strider… a guy that Horton is very similar too. Cade Horton has the velo, an elite ++ slider, striking out over 12 per 9, has a 2.53 xFIP. I’d say he’s elite. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

10 minutes ago, KCCub said:

No problem. I now know it auto adds “Rumor:” to the title lol.

[Tryptamine]

4 minutes ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

No.

But that's closer to the truth than getting hysterical over the idea of trading a 25-50 prospect for a successful major league pitcher with 3.5 years of control left.

The point is he's a reliever and they are extremely volatile.  It's possibly the worst way they could use their most valuable assets. If this was the 2016 Cubs you do it, but this team is from that.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Just now, Tryptamine said:

The point is he's a reliever and they are extremely volatile.  It's possibly the worst way they could use their most valuable assets. If this was the 2016 Cubs you do it, but this team is from that.

Successful MLB relievers are less volatile than minor league starting pitchers.

 

[Tryptamine]

2 minutes ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

Successful MLB relievers are less volatile than minor league starting pitchers.

 

I'm not sure how that's relevant when I'm not saying he's untouchable.  I'm saying if you're trading him, a reliever is the worst option. 

Edited July 30, 2023 by Tryptamine

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Just now, Tryptamine said:

I'm not sure how that's relevant when I'm not saying he's untouchable.  I'm saying if you're trading him, a reliever is the worst option. 

WEll if anyone is offering a pretty good major leaguer with 3.5 years of control left at a different position, then I'm probably interested in that too.

[UMFan83]

We warned people not to feed the Kyle but they did anyways

[JD94]

10 minutes ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

Yes. I am saying he is not elite.

Sports has a massive problem with word creep.  Once a word starts getting used, it gets spread to more and more players because fans can't stand the thought of their guy not getting it, and then the word becomes meaningless.  If you're not a no-doubt top-5 prospect in all of baseball as a pitcher, you aren't an elite pitching prospect. You're a very good one.

I didn't ignore any of that. I explained to you why all those things you said actually support my position, not yours.

Horton is literally #6 by default in his first full season… even if you don’t take the time to compare him against other SP prospects in the minors that he’s also better than. So the #5 guy is elite, but Cade Horton at #6 isn’t? Lol… Is Kyle Harrison elite? He’s the #3 SP prospect in baseball. Strikes out a ton of batters, sure.. but he’s walking *7* per 9 innings, 4.79 ERA, 5.14 xFIP, 44% FB rate. What is elite about him outside of the strikeouts? 

[Tryptamine]

Just now, UMFan83 said:

We warned people not to feed the Kyle but they did anyways

It's kyle and Tom, this is bad for my blood pressure

[NOLA]

I so remember thinking Juan Cruz would be better than Big Z.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

7 minutes ago, JD94 said:

Horton is literally #6 by default in his first full season… even if you don’t take the time to compare him against other SP prospects in the minors that he’s also better than. So the #5 guy is elite, but Cade Horton at #6 isn’t? Lol… Is Kyle Harrison elite? He’s the #3 SP prospect in baseball. Strikes out a ton of batters, sure.. but he’s walking *7* per 9 innings, 4.79 ERA, 5.14 xFIP, 44% FB rate. What is elite about him outside of the strikeouts? 

I didn't say top-5 pitching prospect. I said no-doubt top-5 prospect. Meaning top-5 in all the lists, not just in his best showings.

Show me a prospect ranking that has Horton in the top 5 prospects in baseball, and I'll call him elite.  I wouldn't call Kyle Harrison elite either.

In prospect terms, "elite" should be reserved for the 70 FV guys.  If you can find guys putting Horton in that tier, go nuts. 
 

We need a word that separates the Prior/Strasburg tier of prospects from the "this guy is probably one of the top-10 pitchers in the minors right now" tier, and "elite" used to serve that purpose before people started trying to expand it. They're in the process of ruining "generational" the same way.

Edited July 30, 2023 by Hairyducked Idiot

[UMFan83]

1 minute ago, Tryptamine said:

It's kyle and Tom, this is bad for my blood pressure

I value their input even if I don't always agree.  It's just some of the endless arguments they end up in lol.