Ohtani to Dodgers for an ungodly amount of money

[Ding Dong Johnson]

8 minutes ago, 17 Seconds said:

that's not the point. they'd have preferred correa/bogaerts/turner if they were all priced the same. they chose dansby because he was the cheapest.

Did Jed watch all of their ground balls too?

[17 Seconds]

okay maybe i'm wrong, but i'm considering doubling down just for the arguments, because these meetings are that boring

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

At a minimum I very much doubt they ranked Swanson 4th of the four, given the defensive focus they've had I doubt they would rather have had Bogaerts even with equal contracts.

But it's not about which one is cheaper, that's an oversimplification and has been borne out in their investment in not only Swanson, but Stroman, Seiya, and Taillon.  For better or worse, Jed is extremely mindful of the length of deals and how well they will age and inhibit future moves.  Call it smart actuarial thinking, call it overcorrective Heyward PTSD, but I think it's a very big factor.  The 4 SS signed through ages 40, 40, 35, and 35, guess which two Jed was most heavily linked with through last offseason?

I think there's something to be said for those things. At some point, the Cubs will find that they can't acquire truly star level talents, however, always being mindful of these things. I'm not blaming them for Ohtani here, and I can admit, I'd rather have had Correa over Swanson last year and for year 1, it looks like I was wrong. With that said, the Cubs will eventually need to make uncomfortable deals; via trade or FA. If all they do is the comfortable, they'll have a collection of good players but lacking the truly elite talents. 

I don't want to sound upset currently, only that I'd like to see the Cubs eventually push into that territory. Without it, we'll keep playing a revolving door of one year deals, pretty good prospects, and pretty good players without the true top line guys. 

[Thusly Boned]

2 minutes ago, almirhadzic123 said:

Think some of you are being unfair. I don't doubt Jed going all out for Ohtani with his pitch, but I think personal preferences(geography for ex) that Ohtani has are working against us, more so than us being cheap. If you're cheap, you don't get into the Ohtani conversation at all. Let the offseason play out folks. 

Yeah, as the process has gone along, I've increasingly felt like the Cubs weren't really going to be outbid here, or "out-efforted", but that they are working against factors they can't control (geography, demographics, media intensity/scrutiny, etc.).

I may be proven totally wrong, but I would not be the least bit surprised if the winner doesn't turn out to have offered the most.

[thawv]

1 hour ago, Banedon said:

 

Translation:  The Cubs are getting close to signing Ohtani. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

1 minute ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I think there's something to be said for those things. At some point, the Cubs will find that they can't acquire truly star level talents, however, always being mindful of these things. I'm not blaming them for Ohtani here, and I can admit, I'd rather have had Correa over Swanson last year and for year 1, it looks like I was wrong. With that said, the Cubs will eventually need to make uncomfortable deals; via trade or FA. If all they do is the comfortable, they'll have a collection of good players but lacking the truly elite talents. 

I don't want to sound upset currently, only that I'd like to see the Cubs eventually push into that territory. Without it, we'll keep playing a revolving door of one year deals, pretty good prospects, and pretty good players without the true top line guys. 

Agreed, what I was getting at was less that avoiding those deals is the right call all the time, but that Swanson's signing is not a function of always wanting the cheaper contract or lower AAV.  They've clearly shown a willingness with the folks I mentioned above and in particular with Bellinger to not be scared off by marginal cost for the right addition.

[WhyCantWeWin]

I wonder if Jed was trying to convince Ohtani to sign for a short term insane AAV. 

[UMFan83]

11 minutes ago, almirhadzic123 said:

Think some of you are being unfair. I don't doubt Jed going all out for Ohtani with his pitch, but I think personal preferences(geography for ex) that Ohtani has are working against us, more so than us being cheap. If you're cheap, you don't get into the Ohtani conversation at all. Let the offseason play out folks. 

Maybe. It’s possible the Cubs were in on him for 10/$500m but if the rumors of it exceeding that point are true they might have backed out. I think Shohei would have come here if we were clearly offering the most money. I don’t know that for a fact but my guess is this is a highest bidder situation before anything else. 

[UMFan83]

In to a varying extent!!

 

[CubbyBlue2008]

3 minutes ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

I wonder if Jed was trying to convince Ohtani to sign for a short term insane AAV. 

Wouldn’t be shocking at all.

[thawv]

1 hour ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Yeah, I'd be pretty disappointed with that pivot. Sadly, I just don't see what other FA they could be really pushing for (outside of Yamamoto who is too far out for that to be the push, IMO). 

If there's a positive here...maybe this isn't the Cubs waning. Maybe it's the Cubs confident they're getting Ohtani and building around him? But that could be hopium.

I think that this makes much more sense.  If they sign him, they are at the 1st level of the CBT.  I'd guess that they are going to go by the 3rd level.  Or at least to it.  They can't just throw him 50 million at O, and do nothing else.  This is going to be a huge off season.  I hope????

[JHBulls]

Until Shohei official signs for a team, it’s all nonsense being spouted. Has anyone notice that the only team we seem to be reading about as being out of the race for Ohtani are the Cubs and not about other teams? Apparently the Cubs will be the busiest team this winter, so the Cubs are the team that sells clicks. 
 

Reading about the Giants potentially not getting Ohtani isn’t fun and reading about the Dodgers being the most likely team to get Ohtani isn’t fun. 

[Banedon]

 

[Brian707]

[CubbyBlue2008]

 

[UMFan83]

Freddie Freeman was worth 8 wins last year and he's going to be the 3rd best position player on the Dodgers.  Blah

[CubbyBlue2008]

 

[17 Seconds]

[CubbyBlue2008]

Maybe we haven’t met with him yet and that’s why we are “falling behind?”

[UMFan83]

This reminds me of that episode of Mad Men when they are trying to win the Honda motorcycle account, and the Japanese businessmen have some very strict rules that they consider dishonorable to violate.  Instead of violating the rules, SCDP tricks the other agencies into breaking the rules and they win the account.  

The Cubs are clearly leaking to reporters other teams meetings with Ohtani or letting them eliminate themselves (like Roberts just did), and when they're asked, they are responding "Who's Ohtani?  I don't know any Ohtani".

 

[thawv]

43 minutes ago, almirhadzic123 said:

Think some of you are being unfair. I don't doubt Jed going all out for Ohtani with his pitch, but I think personal preferences(geography for ex) that Ohtani has are working against us, more so than us being cheap. If you're cheap, you don't get into the Ohtani conversation at all. Let the offseason play out folks. 

Six years ago, the west coast was a huge preference for O.  How do you know that it's still a preference?  The only thing that's been reported about geography is, it's not an issue this time around.  I'm not suggesting he prefers or doesn't prefer the west coast.  I'm saying that after 6 years in Cali, we don't know how much he likes, or dislikes it. 

[Jason Ross]

Man. This certainly sucks.

[Thusly Boned]

15 minutes ago, thawv said:

Six years ago, the west coast was a huge preference for O.  How do you know that it's still a preference?  The only thing that's been reported about geography is, it's not an issue this time around.  I'm not suggesting he prefers or doesn't prefer the west coast.  I'm saying that after 6 years in Cali, we don't know how much he likes, or dislikes it. 

No one knows for sure, but one thing that seems pretty clear is that he has an aversion to media scrutiny, and would likely prefer a "low key" home city. 

It's been speculated and rumored that he flat out would not play in NYC, and I have to imagine that's a big part of why. Chicago isn't NYC, but it's not LA or Toronto, either. Additionally, it's been said that Shohei is a creature of habit, and probably was never really looking to make any radical changes from the life he's led stateside since he first arrived.

And then there's the weather, but who knows hoe much he cares about that.

It's all speculative, but it seems a given pretty much all the major players here were prepared to give him $500-600M, and at that point, it really comes down to the other stuff, and I've felt the whole time like Jed & Co. were sailing into the wind here even if they were willing to pay.

EDIT: All that said, I am still clinging to hope here, because I really feel like the pursuit has been sincere. I'll let it go when it is reported he's signed somewhere else.

Edited December 5, 2023 by XZero77

[thawv]

1 minute ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Man. This certainly sucks.

What happened???

[thawv]

2 minutes ago, XZero77 said:

No one knows for sure, but one thing that seems pretty clear is that he has an aversion to media scrutiny, and would likely prefer a "low key" home city. 

It's been speculated and rumored that he flat out would not play in NYC, and I have to imagine that's a big part of why. Chicago isn't NYC, but it's not LA or Toronto, either. Additionally, it's been said that Shohei is a creature of habit, and probably was never really looking to make any radical changes from the life he's led stateside since he first arrived.

And then there's the weather, but who knows hoe much he cares about that.

It's all speculative, but it seems a given pretty much all the major players here were prepared to give him $500-600M, and at that point, it really comes down to the other stuff, and I've felt the whole time like Jed & Co. were sailing into the wind here even if they were willing to pay.

If he's really a creature of habit, and doesn't like radical changes, why hasn't he already signed with the Dodgers or go back to the Angels?  Not challenging you at all, but up to this very moment, it doesn't seem important to him.  Nobody know what he wants.