Justin Fields’ make or break camp begins

[jersey cubs fan]

the athletic ran a mock draft using Dane Bruglers latest rankings and Austin Mock’s expected win totals for draft order. They’ve got Chicago drafting second with 5.7 wins, and taking Marvin Harrison Jr. 
Tampa selects the second QB, Maye from NC, at 5 but they note they expect him to go higher with Chicago as a trade back candidate from the 2 spot.
They also have them picking J.T. Tuimoloau in the 8 spot with Carolina’s pick (7.3 wins).

I just cannot imagine a scenario where the Bears win 5 games, and are happy enough with Fields to just keep drafting guys to put around him, or trade back. If their pick is the 2nd overall pick next year, Fields is not the guy, and they have to look for his successor. Maybe they don’t like any of the guys behind Williams, and they prefer a project guy lower down. But that will be two disastrous seasons in a row to start out both Poles and Flus’s careers as the top guys, they won’t be able to live through a third. 

[Rex Buckingham]

23 minutes ago, jersey cubs fan said:

the athletic ran a mock draft using Dane Bruglers latest rankings and Austin Mock’s expected win totals for draft order. They’ve got Chicago drafting second with 5.7 wins, and taking Marvin Harrison Jr. 
Tampa selects the second QB, Maye from NC, at 5 but they note they expect him to go higher with Chicago as a trade back candidate from the 2 spot.
They also have them picking J.T. Tuimoloau in the 8 spot with Carolina’s pick (7.3 wins).

I just cannot imagine a scenario where the Bears win 5 games, and are happy enough with Fields to just keep drafting guys to put around him, or trade back. If their pick is the 2nd overall pick next year, Fields is not the guy, and they have to look for his successor. Maybe they don’t like any of the guys behind Williams, and they prefer a project guy lower down. But that will be two disastrous seasons in a row to start out both Poles and Flus’s careers as the top guys, they won’t be able to live through a third. 

Could their defense be bad enough that they draft that high? Say they score 24 ppg on offense (which would have been 9th in the league last year, just ahead of Jacksonville) and give up 27 ppg like they did last year, couldn't they end up with 5-6 wins and a really high pick while Fields was actually still pretty good?

[jersey cubs fan]

Sure it’s possible, especially at the 6 win level. But is it likely? Odds are if you are picking 2nd, you only have ~4 wins. 6 wins is usually nowhere near the top of the draft. 
anyway, if the defense is that bad, and Fields can only get them 5 wins, then it really reflects poorly on Poles’ drafting (numerous dbacks and tackles early) and free agent signings (linebackers and linemen), in addition to Eberflus’s coaching. The defense should be good enough to not get blown away with regularity. That should be enough to allow Fields to win more than 5-6 games. If it isn’t enough, Fields isn’t the guy. And if they are drafting 2 next year in thay scenario, they have to look at qb. 
 

now, if it’s Carolina’s pick at 2, then that’s the jackpot baby. 

[CubinNY]

1 hour ago, jersey cubs fan said:

Sure it’s possible, especially at the 6 win level. But is it likely? Odds are if you are picking 2nd, you only have ~4 wins. 6 wins is usually nowhere near the top of the draft. 
anyway, if the defense is that bad, and Fields can only get them 5 wins, then it really reflects poorly on Poles’ drafting (numerous dbacks and tackles early) and free agent signings (linebackers and linemen), in addition to Eberflus’s coaching. The defense should be good enough to not get blown away with regularity. That should be enough to allow Fields to win more than 5-6 games. If it isn’t enough, Fields isn’t the guy. And if they are drafting 2 next year in thay scenario, they have to look at qb. 
 

now, if it’s Carolina’s pick at 2, then that’s the jackpot baby. 

In that scenario, I would hope that Eberflus will be out of a job by the end of the year. I kind of doubt it though. It would be a mess of a situation regardless. 

[Old Style]

17 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

In that scenario, I would hope that Eberflus will be out of a job by the end of the year. I kind of doubt it though. It would be a mess of a situation regardless. 

It would take a meltdown of epic proportions for Flus to be fired after 2 seasons.

[UMFan83]

22 minutes ago, Old Style said:

It would take a meltdown of epic proportions for Flus to be fired after 2 seasons.

Otherwise known as a Trestman

[jersey cubs fan]

24 minutes ago, Old Style said:

It would take a meltdown of epic proportions for Flus to be fired after 2 seasons.

I would argue that the bears finishing with the 2nd worst record in the league this year would be a meltdown of epic proportions. 
 

I do think he’d get a third. By summer 2025 we should have good clarity on the stadium situation, and if they haven’t created a playoff contender by 2024, there will be grounds to clean house to try and have a solid team in the new stadium. 
 

The coordinators would probably get canned sooner, and replaced with mediocre has beens. 

[CubinNY]

Let's hope the McCaskey's finally made the right hire in Poles. I have doubts.

[We Got The Whole 9]

I think the Bears will get something like a top 3 pick from CAR and their own pick in the 10-15 range as they just miss a WC spot. If Fields gets hurt obviously that changes everything and they will be horrendous. 

[Tryptamine]

12 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

I think the Bears will get something like a top 3 pick from CAR and their own pick in the 10-15 range as they just miss a WC spot. If Fields gets hurt obviously that changes everything and they will be horrendous. 

Most predictions I've seen have had the Bears with around the 10th pick and somehow the Carolina pick being around #12. Frankly I'd be surprised if Carolina had a better record than the Bears. 

[raw]

4 hours ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

I think the Bears will get something like a top 3 pick from CAR and their own pick in the 10-15 range as they just miss a WC spot. If Fields gets hurt obviously that changes everything and they will be horrendous. 

I don't think Carolina is top 3 bad on paper. Arizona and Tampa seem to be legit tanking. The Rams don't look like they are actively trying to win. Then you have the Texans, Titans, Patriots and Raiders that seem to be clearly inferior on paper to other teams in a loaded divisions and conference. 

Carolina has solid talent on D. Young isn't going to be horrible. Only question I have is, does he make it through the season healthy. I'm thinking about top 6 for Carolina if the OL looks as bad as it has in preseason.  But I'm expecting Bears and Carolina to be in the 10-16 range, with the Bears at the higher end of that range.

[jersey cubs fan]

29 minutes ago, raw said:

I don't think Carolina is top 3 bad on paper. Arizona and Tampa seem to be legit tanking. The Rams don't look like they are actively trying to win. Then you have the Texans, Titans, Patriots and Raiders that seem to be clearly inferior on paper to other teams in a loaded divisions and conference. 

Carolina has solid talent on D. Young isn't going to be horrible. Only question I have is, does he make it through the season healthy. I'm thinking about top 6 for Carolina if the OL looks as bad as it has in preseason.  But I'm expecting Bears and Carolina to be in the 10-16 range, with the Bears at the higher end of that range.

That’s my expectation. Carolina might have a ceiling of top 5 pick. But I doubt it’s that good. 

[UMFan83]

36 minutes ago, raw said:

I don't think Carolina is top 3 bad on paper. Arizona and Tampa seem to be legit tanking. The Rams don't look like they are actively trying to win. Then you have the Texans, Titans, Patriots and Raiders that seem to be clearly inferior on paper to other teams in a loaded divisions and conference. 

Carolina has solid talent on D. Young isn't going to be horrible. Only question I have is, does he make it through the season healthy. I'm thinking about top 6 for Carolina if the OL looks as bad as it has in preseason.  But I'm expecting Bears and Carolina to be in the 10-16 range, with the Bears at the higher end of that range.

Yes and with a rookie QB and no 1st round pick there is absolutely no incentive for them to tank so they are going to be playing to win all season including the end when other teams are going for draft position or preparing for the playoffs

[We Got The Whole 9]

22 hours ago, raw said:

I don't think Carolina is top 3 bad on paper. Arizona and Tampa seem to be legit tanking. The Rams don't look like they are actively trying to win. Then you have the Texans, Titans, Patriots and Raiders that seem to be clearly inferior on paper to other teams in a loaded divisions and conference. 

Carolina has solid talent on D. Young isn't going to be horrible. Only question I have is, does he make it through the season healthy. I'm thinking about top 6 for Carolina if the OL looks as bad as it has in preseason.  But I'm expecting Bears and Carolina to be in the 10-16 range, with the Bears at the higher end of that range.

If Young struggles it will put a ton of pressure on that defense. Couple key injuries to the defense and they'll be awful.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I liked what I saw from Young in the pre-season.  Lots of decisive, quick-hit reads.  Very, very good at moving around in the pocket.  Accuracy wasn't amazing.

[raw]

16 hours ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

If Young struggles it will put a ton of pressure on that defense. Couple key injuries to the defense and they'll be awful.

He'll struggle. He's a rookie. But he's also one of the elite prospects of the last several years, so it's likely he won't be a disaster. I think the biggest route to a top 3 pick is if that very below average OL gets him hurt early and often/long-term. Even then, Dalton can probably win 5-6 to keep them out of the top 3. 

[Tim]

52 minutes ago, raw said:

He'll struggle. He's a rookie. But he's also one of the elite prospects of the last several years, so it's likely he won't be a disaster. I think the biggest route to a top 3 pick is if that very below average OL gets him hurt early and often/long-term. Even then, Dalton can probably win 5-6 to keep them out of the top 3. 

I won't root for him to get hurt. I will root for him to be too short to see over his OLine, though. And look very much like a rookie QB overall.

[CubinNY]

Young is Drew Brees only with a better arm and more talent. He's going to be really good. 

[Tim]

3 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Young is Drew Brees only with a better arm and more talent. He's going to be really good. 

I see you drank the kool-aid down there in Bama

[CubinNY]

3 minutes ago, Tim said:

I see you drank the kool-aid down there in Bama

I was forced to watch him play most Saturdays.

[Tim]

28 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

I was forced to watch him play most Saturdays.

It's still quite a leap to compare him to a top 10 QB of all time, add on that he has more talent and a better arm and no downsides.

[CubinNY]

Just now, Tim said:

It's still quite a leap to compare him to a top 10 QB of all time, add on that he has more talent and a better arm and no downsides.

Maybe talent is the wrong word. He's more mobile, faster, is a better improviser, and has a better arm. If he can stay healthy and they have the right guys around him the sky is the limit. 

[Tim]

4 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Maybe talent is the wrong word. He's more mobile, faster, is a better improviser, and has a better arm. If he can stay healthy and they have the right guys around him the sky is the limit. 

Still sounds like you're saying he's a near lock to be a top 2-3 qb of all time. 

He wouldn't even be in the top 2 QB prospects in next year's class.

[CubinNY]

2 minutes ago, Tim said:

Still sounds like you're saying he's a near lock to be a top 2-3 qb of all time. 

He wouldn't even be in the top 2 QB prospects in next year's class.

lol

[Tim]

3 minutes ago, Tim said:

Still sounds like you're saying he's a near lock to be a top 2-3 qb of all time. 

He wouldn't even be in the top 2 QB prospects in next year's class.

 

1 minute ago, CubinNY said:

lol

I don't think I've seen anyone in the industry that would put him above Williams or Maye.

Someone else chime in here if I'm wrong on that.