2024 MLB Draft Thread

[Named After Maddux]

7 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Can someone more plugged in than me share what the main knocks are on Cam Smith?  He had HS pedigree, made adjustments with plate discipline and hit in both the Cape and ACC, has a good frame and projects as best I can tell to be a MLB 3B(potentially even a good one).  Is there bearishness on him getting to enough raw power, or worries about growing off 3B?  Feels like compared to many others I don't see the blinking red warning sign, yet in mocks I don't ever see him in the top 10 and often falls closer to 20.

I like Cam a good bit and think there's a middle ground between his 2023 and his 2024 swing, but the current concern I've heard is to accomplish the improvements in whiffs and chase he made, he's stopped launching the ball. His LA dropped all the way to 4.8. Again, I think a smart organization takes his 2023 swing aggressiveness and employs that as his A swing and his 2024 as his B swing.

Defensively, Smith tends to come and go. In my early games I watched he looked fresh and I thought he was an above-average 3B. More recently and in live looks he's muffed some easy balls and his range has been cut back. It's hard to know if he just has some minor nagging thing towards the end of the year.

[Outshined_One]

6 minutes ago, Named After Maddux said:

I like Cam a good bit and think there's a middle ground between his 2023 and his 2024 swing, but the current concern I've heard is to accomplish the improvements in whiffs and chase he made, he's stopped launching the ball. His LA dropped all the way to 4.8. Again, I think a smart organization takes his 2023 swing aggressiveness and employs that as his A swing and his 2024 as his B swing.

Defensively, Smith tends to come and go. In my early games I watched he looked fresh and I thought he was an above-average 3B. More recently and in live looks he's muffed some easy balls and his range has been cut back. It's hard to know if he just has some minor nagging thing towards the end of the year.

That description sounds weirdly like Aramis Ramirez to me.

[Tryptamine]

18 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

That description sounds weirdly like Aramis Ramirez to me.

Hopefully he wont be as lazy. Am I right Bob Brenly?

[Outshined_One]

2 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Hopefully he wont be as lazy. Am I right Bob Brenly?

Just put him opposite the best defensive 1B of this past generation and make sure the 1B is like 7'6.  I'm sure that'll work out fine.

[Bertz]

 

 

[Jason Ross]

1 hour ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Can someone more plugged in than me share what the main knocks are on Cam Smith?  He had HS pedigree, made adjustments with plate discipline and hit in both the Cape and ACC, has a good frame and projects as best I can tell to be a MLB 3B(potentially even a good one).  Is there bearishness on him getting to enough raw power, or worries about growing off 3B?  Feels like compared to many others I don't see the blinking red warning sign, yet in mocks I don't ever see him in the top 10 and often falls closer to 20.

Maddux is definitely the best guy to listen to here, but just my two cents and from what I've been reading on others is that there is a concern that the swing profile Smith has may need a full tear down because it became so damn flat in 2024. A lot of Smith's profile is awesome, but it depends on how much work you think you need to do to get him to hit it in the air. 

Like you said, the picture looks awesome otherwise. But that swing profile as is...well...thats a flag. Is it more of a flag than Tibbs being platoon-y? Or Waldschmidt defensively? Christian Moore's in zone whiff? Hard to say. 

[CubinNY]

I'm secretly hoping they draft Malcom Moore. 1) I love the name 2) They need a fast moving catcher 3) I fell in love with the fluff piece I read about him a few days ago. Before that, the first I heard about him was the rave reviews on his interview. 

[Bertz]

41 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

I'm secretly hoping they draft Malcom Moore. 1) I love the name 2) They need a fast moving catcher 3) I fell in love with the fluff piece I read about him a few days ago. Before that, the first I heard about him was the rave reviews on his interview. 

He's where my heart's at too.  My brain knows TINSTAAP applies to catchers too, but Moore's the guy who has me most genuinely excited when I read about him.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

If you could tell me Moore would stick at catcher, I'd be more interested.

[Jason Ross]

8 minutes ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

If you could tell me Moore would stick at catcher, I'd be more interested.

Yeah, that's where I'm at. If you think Moore is a catcher at the next level, then he's 1b for me (Waldschmidt remains my 1a). If you don't believe in the glove, I'm a pass. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Speaking of catchers, still can't shake the feeling that Janek is gonna make some team look really smart.  Seems a lot more of a certain catcher defensively, and his performance at the Cape before he went supernova at SHSU feels like a reasonably high floor with room to dream on more.

[JD94]

On 7/8/2024 at 4:27 PM, 1908_Cubs said:

Good information on Ty Nichols and his social media: he's recently followed five players and they're the only five players he's followed since last draft. Nichols is the area scout who was credited with Jaxson Wiggins (this is important!) and Cade Horton the last two years. He's someone to follow and who holds water on draft day, so any number of these names could be called, and I'd bet at least one does. 

- Carson Wiggins (yes, his brother is Jaxson). Carson is a RHP committed to Arkansas (shocker), my guess is that he isn't a 2nd round overslot, but could be a later round, or 11+ round overslot like Hope or Wheat. Was invited to Texas as a top-40 player but Prospects Live had him off their top-100 prep players and in the HM section. 

- Slade Caldwell is an slight-framed CF'er committed to Ole Miss. Very athletic, not a ton of power. Feels like a mid-round overslot or 11+ round overslot

- Eli Buxton is a RHP/1b/OF who stands 6"6. My guess is he's a pitcher at the next level from what I can find on him. He's committed to Arizona State, an easier commit to yank out of with money. 

- Alex Grant is a LHP committed to Vandy. I can't find a ton on him. Looks like he sits 92 mph with the fastball, though others I've seen he tops out at 88mph. He's from Connecticut, not a hot bed of baseball, so probably why I'm struggling. Vanderbilt commits are traditionally some of the hardest to breakout of, I'm having a hard time guessing where he'd be picked. Vandy has "2nd round" feel to it, but there's just a dearth of information

Edit: Based on location, I'm not sure this is the same Alex Grant. There are two Alex Grants in this draft. The other four are all from OK, AR, and KS, but there's another Alex Grant, another LHP, from Texas. I think that might be who it is based on Nichols area usually being that area and not CT 

He's a LHP, with sinking action. 3 pitch mix. No velo readouts. No commitment information I can find. Sounds like he's a projectable LHP. That's...that's like it.

- Eli Lovich is an OF'er also committed to Arkansas. He's lanky and tall, 6"4, 175lbs. Looks like he's pitched in the past, but everything I can find is about him as a hitter, so I'd assume he's a hitter next level. Looks like a Cody Bellinger, tall and lanky type, with the arm I'd assume CF is on the table. Kansas player of the year. That feels like a 2nd round overslot potential. 

Good stuff here. As you might remember, I’m an Ole Miss alum and pretty up to date with Ole Miss related info. I don’t have much to add on Slade other than he’s already at school and in a dorm and working out at the facilities. It’s obviously a leverage play and he’s 100% going pro. His biggest knock is he’s short. Like Jose Altuve short.
 

Ole Miss has had some crappy luck with the draft recently. First it was Jackson Jobe going from like 92 MPH to 97-99 MPH in his draft year. Jackson Ferris blew up in his draft year. Roman Anthony was a pretty lowly rated prospect until his senior year when he blew up, now he’s a top prospect in baseball. They felt really good about Caldwell due to his size, but they will lose him in the draft. Just a tough run for us. But it makes it a little easier when we lose our guys to the Cubs like Ferris last year (who we turned into Busch obviously). 

[Jason Ross]

Another day and another mock! Keith Law 3.0 has the Cubs taking Christian Moore at 14. Mentions Malcolm Moore as another possibility. 

Where I think things get interesting is in the last sentence where he connects the Cubs as "possible dark horses" on Carson Benge and Jurrangelo Cijinte. What I can't tell is if this is Keith Law hearing things, or if this is Keith being...well...Keith. Keith has a tendency to get a bit "personal" in my opinion when he does things; he doesn't love Christian Moore (ranking him in the 30's) but does really like Benge and Cijinte. So hard to tell if this is him saying the Cubs could be dark horses because...he thinks these guys are good enough to go there. 

On the surface, Cijinte makes Cub-sense. He's funky (throws RHP and LHP), he's got sweeper/slider/cutter profiles, and would be underslot. These are Cub hallmarks. So perhaps dark horse here is earnest!

[CubinNY]

Just reading the scouting reports on Christian Moore, he looks like a pretty solid pick at 14. But what do I know? The Cubs are going to be jammed up the middle of the infield with the name Christian for prospects. 

Edited July 11, 2024 by CubinNY

[Jason Ross]

8 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Just reading the scouting reports on Christian Moore, he looks like a pretty solid pick at 14. But what do I know? The Cubs are going to be jammed up the middle of the infield with the name Christian for prospects. 

Moore came on really hot on the back end of the year. If there's flags, it's that I've seen 45 grades on his in-zone-whiff and some bat path issues. As well, being that he's already at 2b, there isn't many places to move him defensively if for some reason he's not great there as we get more and more data on him on top of 2b just not being a premium position. If there's a positive, it's that the barrier to entry on the bat at 2b is low. 

I think he's a good prospect and another one of the "fine" picks the Cubs can make at 14. 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Longenhagen did his mock too:

 

Quote

14. Chicago Cubs
Pick: Malcolm Moore, C, Stanford
You could put any of the college hitters who performed from a bat-to-ball standpoint here. Moore only hit .255 this year, but his underlying data is great and indicates he was the victim of bad luck. Like Matt Shaw last year, Moore isn’t a lock to stay at his current position because of a mediocre arm.

Yesavage went the next pick.

[Tryptamine]

12 minutes ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

Longenhagen did his mock too:

 

Yesavage went the next pick.

Mediocre arm isn't what you want to hear. You can improve catching technique, framing technique, pop time, etc. , but how much can you really do to strengthen his throwing arm? If he can't stick behind the plate that makes me so much less interested.

[Bertz]

[CubinNY]

23 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Mediocre arm isn't what you want to hear. You can improve catching technique, framing technique, pop time, etc. , but how much can you really do to strengthen his throwing arm? If he can't stick behind the plate that makes me so much less interested.

Arm strength is about the easiest "tool" to fix for a player.  

Look at Madrigal. 

Edited July 11, 2024 by CubinNY

[Outshined_One]

15 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Mediocre arm isn't what you want to hear. You can improve catching technique, framing technique, pop time, etc. , but how much can you really do to strengthen his throwing arm? If he can't stick behind the plate that makes me so much less interested.

Remember when the Nick Madrigal experiment at 3B was initially derided because the knock on him was a noodle arm?  The Cubs clearly have something in place to assist with that, given that Madrigal's arm improved enough to make him a decent 3B.

Plus, it might not be an arm strength issue so much as it's a technique issue.  Even then, MLB has had its share of success stories of catchers who sucked at throwing out runners.

[Tryptamine]

12 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

Remember when the Nick Madrigal experiment at 3B was initially derided because the knock on him was a noodle arm?  The Cubs clearly have something in place to assist with that, given that Madrigal's arm improved enough to make him a decent 3B.

Plus, it might not be an arm strength issue so much as it's a technique issue.  Even then, MLB has had its share of success stories of catchers who sucked at throwing out runners.

I just wonder if that's feasible given how much more prevalent steals have become since last year.

[Rob]

3 hours ago, CubinNY said:

Arm strength is about the easiest "tool" to fix for a player.  

Look at Madrigal. 

I can't wait to see our catcher make four big bunny hops before trying to throw out a guy stealing second.

 

Edited July 11, 2024 by Rob
Fixed link

[Jason Ross]

3 minutes ago, Rob said:

I can't wait to see our catcher make four big bunny hops before trying to throw out a guy stealing second.

 

Hopefully Moore has an 80 grade pop-time...

[Named After Maddux]

FWIW, I've asked around and not everyone agrees with Eric's assessment that Malcolm Moore has a weak arm. And even Prospects Live's top 300 dropped today and described it as strong.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Longenhagen's draft board: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/updated-draft-rankings-are-live-on-the-board/

Thought this was interesting:

Quote

As I’ve had conversations with scouts, agents, and executives while compiling this list and working on a mock draft (team draft meetings began early this week and actual dope is starting to flow), folks tend to think they have a handle on the players who will come off the board in the first 12 or so picks (though not in an exact order) because there’s a talent drop-off around that area. After that, teams are more likely to start getting creative and cut under-slot deals. But, again, it’s not an awesome draft and you might not like who’s left to pay over-slot money to later on.