Article: 2023 MLB Draft Day 1 Thread

[CaliforniaRaisin]

You can see where Shaw and Wiggins will slot in in the Fangraphs rankings for the Cubs' system:

Shaw is a 45 FV so he'll be somewhere between 7 and 13 (accounting for the fact Hayden Wesneski and Javier Assad were graded at 50 and 45 respectively and both have graduated).

Wiggins is a 40 FV so he'd be somewhere between 23 and 35 (accounting for Miles Mastrobuoni's graduation).

[CaliforniaRaisin]

55 minutes ago, Hrubes20 said:

Well horsefeathers. That moves that pick into “hate” territory. Gross.

This is under the assumption he submitted for a full medical exam at the combine. I haven’t read that he did but why else go if you’re not a lock first rounder and you can’t pitch?

[CaliforniaRaisin]

1 hour ago, CubsLeaf said:

I'm still curious what was being offered for Contreras at the deadline last year.  It had to be better than the #68 pick they got for compensation.  I'd rather take on a prospect or two that you've seen play in MILB over a dart throw.

According to this, $1 million is the equivalent to a 40 FV pitching prospect (and I assume a 35+ FV position prospect). The Cubs got about $1.1 million with pick 68 and drafted a 40 FV prospect (while likely saving at least $250k for another pick). So they needed a pitching prospect equivalent to Fangraphs’ 25th (Brody McCullough) to 37th (Tyler Schlaffer) Cubs prospect to get equal value (or even lower value if a position player, such as Bryce Windham) to the QO pick, and that disregards some of the pool movement they’ll get from the savings for Wiggins. I’d rather have the pick and pool value (even if I’m not keen on Wiggins) to a Schlaffer or Windham trade, and considering how much Buster Olney was tweeting about Willson’s depressed trade market before the deadline, I’m guessing that’s about what we were looking at.

[CubinNY]

8 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

Sounds like the stuff is there, they just need to teach him how to get it near the plate.

And they are so good at that.

[Hrubes20]

9 hours ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

This is under the assumption he submitted for a full medical exam at the combine. I haven’t read that he did but why else go if you’re not a lock first rounder and you can’t pitch?

Fairly safe assumption. 

[Tryptamine]

Yeah I'm expecting full slot for Shaw, if they get any savings out of his slot I'll consider that a win.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Fangraphs Day One Recap: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2023-mlb-draft-day-one-recap/

 

[stitchface]

12 hours ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

MLB Pipeline: 

 

sounds like kyle farnsworth

[Tryptamine]

Supposedly from the same scout that identified both Wicks and Horton, so I'll give it the benefit of the doubt early on.

[Outshined_One]

46 minutes ago, stitchface said:

sounds like kyle farnsworth

Oddly enough, Paul Wilson is currently available as a Day 2 pick.

[craig]

https://theathletic.com/4678630/2023/07/10/cubs-draft-matt-shaw/

Quote

we were really impressed with how he looked prior to that in the fall and then how he looked in Omaha the same year that Cade Horton was pitching (in the College World Series). Jaxon has a mid-to-upper 90s power fastball with good ride up in the zone. He’s got a power slider. Something that really stood out to our scouts was the development of his curveball. Talking to our guys in pitching development, we think there might be something untapped to explore there potentially.”

Kantrovitz. 

Longenhagen says "pure relief prospect".  But Kantro's reference to curveball "really stood out" suggests that Cubs see a path as a starter.  Combo of power fastball with ride, power slider, curveball, and the change that other sources have mentioned, that's obviously a pathway to being a rotation asset.  

Obviously the Cubs have had a lot of guys who work on lots of pitches but fail because they can't control any of them, that's totally Cubs typical.  So Jaxon will probably be no better in rotation that Jensen or Luke Little or Palencia or Kohl Franklin or Riley Thompson or any of the wildmen.  

I'd like to believe, and I like going for some ceiling.  But thus far, I have to agree with Longenhagen, that whatever capacity Cubs D+D pitch-lab stuff has had in boosting velo or pitch shape, it really hasn't shown much success in curing wildmen.  

 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Andrew Cashner made almost 200 MLB starts and that was before teams started creating whole departments to optimize repertoires.  The pure relief label is based on command/control concerns, and it's not like what Wiggins did in 2022 was on the par of an MLB reliever either, so some improvement has to come no matter what.  They clearly think that distance from injury, mechanical improvements, and pro reps can make him more consistent in that regard, and the reward looks pretty significant given the velo and changeup he's already demonstrated.

[CubinNY]

4 hours ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Andrew Cashner made almost 200 MLB starts and that was before teams started creating whole departments to optimize repertoires.  The pure relief label is based on command/control concerns, and it's not like what Wiggins did in 2022 was on the par of an MLB reliever either, so some improvement has to come no matter what.  They clearly think that distance from injury, mechanical improvements, and pro reps can make him more consistent in that regard, and the reward looks pretty significant given the velo and changeup he's already demonstrated.

I’m not going to nay say anything, but this is a weird pick. Hope it works out.