Jump to content
North Side Baseball

This is the end: Vikings @ Bears 1/8 Noon Fox

UMFan83

By UMFan83,
in Other Sports

 Share
UMFan83 GOAT

UMFan83

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted

The Bears currently have the hardest SOS in the league (though likely aided by almost everyone beating them) and will now play the 12-4 Vikings to finish the season. Bears SOS is currently .560, next best team is the Commanders at .541.

 

Scenario:

 

1st overall: Bears loss and Texans win

2nd overall: 1) Bears loss and Texans loss or 2) Bears win and Cardinals and Broncos both win

3rd overall: Bears win and either Broncos or Cardinals win, but not both

4th overall: Bears win and Broncos and Cardinals both lose

 

May be some scenarios I'm missing and horsefeathers dealing with ties but those are the most obvious

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 166
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

WrigleyField 22 Knoxville Smokies

WrigleyField 22

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
The Bears currently have the hardest SOS in the league (though likely aided by almost everyone beating them) and will now play the 12-4 Vikings to finish the season. Bears SOS is currently .560, next best team is the Commanders at .541.

 

Scenario:

 

1st overall: Bears loss and Texans win

2nd overall: 1) Bears loss and Texans loss or 2) Bears win and Cardinals and Broncos both win

3rd overall: Bears win and either Broncos or Cardinals win, but not both

4th overall: Bears win and Broncos and Cardinals both lose

 

May be some scenarios I'm missing and horsefeathers dealing with ties but those are the most obvious

Yep those are the scenarios and right now I think the most to least likely is:

 

2

1

4

3

 

Basically a better chance of both Arizona and Denver losing than one winning so 4th more likely than 3rd. I'll run full numbers, but I think first place outs still win out over 4th place odds.

UMFan83 GOAT

UMFan83

Old-Timey Member
Posted
  • Author
Posted
ESPN’s FPI has us at 48% for #1

 

I don’t think FPI takes into account things like “losing allows us to draft Bryce Young”

WrigleyField 22 Knoxville Smokies

WrigleyField 22

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
ESPN’s FPI has us at 48% for #1

Link?

 

https://es.pn/3fN70AU

Huh. Wish it showed individual game odds. But they probably have Bears too low or Texans too high.

 

For example 54% chance Houston wins and a 90% chance Bears lose? That seems way out of line of any other prediction I've seen. 60% / 80%?

 

Theres no number that would make sense. They can't be nearly a coin flip odds at #1.

Hairyducked Idiot All-Star

Hairyducked Idiot

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Maybe i'm just me-ing, but the top of the draft feels kinda meh and I think I definitely want to trade down. A couple of flawed QBs, 3-4 LB who didn't even put up great numbers this season, or a defensive tackle? Meh.
BigbadB First Round Pick

BigbadB

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted
Isn't Lovie going to want to win this game? How secure is his job? They didn't have to try so hard in the game they won a few weeks ago. I just feel like Lovie will be trying hard to end the season on a positive note.
scarey Draft Eligible

scarey

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
ESPN’s FPI has us at 48% for #1

 

I don’t think FPI takes into account things like “losing allows us to draft Bryce Young”

 

Colts don’t want to win either but they only risk going from 5 to 6.

 

If they get #5, they likely have no shot at the QB of their choice. #6 gives them a chance at trading up.

raw Myrtle Beach Pelicans

raw

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted

Texans and the Colts should be a fun game with both teams potentially trying to lose. In the 7 games Jeff Saturday has coached, the Colts are -79 in point differential. And that includes a 5-point win, a 1 point loss, and a 3 point loss in OT where they blew the biggest lead in NFL history. If you take out those 1st 2 games of his tenure, and the fluky 1st half against the Vikings they've been outscored 175-52 in 4 1/2 games. It sounds like Nick Foles is hurt as well, so it may be Sam Ehlinger at QB for them.

 

The Texans don't have much incentive to win either, but at least they have a 2nd top 12 pick coming and can move around wherever they want if they need to.

Soul MVP

Soul

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
I believe Saturday is going to want to win that game. Lovie probably will too. I don't have any actual proof but Saturday is interim and Lovie I just can't see being on board with a tank game. If I had to put money on it, I'd say Texans win. Under Saturday the Colts have turned into a dumpster fire of Epic proportions. The Bears might even beat them at this point.
Soul MVP

Soul

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Fields will not break the record

 

 

I would guess this is what the conversation about personnel between Poles and Eberflus was about.

UMFan83 GOAT

UMFan83

Old-Timey Member
Posted
  • Author
Posted
Fields will not break the record

 

 

I would guess this is what the conversation about personnel between Poles and Eberflus was about.

 

FWIW he CLAIMS that this is 100% health related and he'd still be out if it was a playoff game but yeahhhhhhh not buying it.

raw Myrtle Beach Pelicans

raw

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted
Obviously, the first pick would be awesome just for the trade down haul they could get. But part of me wants them to get the first pick for all the Bears fans who stupidly attacked Louis Riddick and others on ESPN for even suggesting that the Bears would be the worst team in the league. Not that the #2 pick makes them any more right about everything, but I did argue on Twitter that while I didn't expect the Bears to be #1 pick bad, it certainly wasn't something to attack people for thinking. They clearly had one of the 3 least talented rosters in the league and an extremely tough schedule.

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share
Go to topic listing
The North Side Baseball Caretaker Fund
The North Side Baseball Caretaker Fund

You all care about this site. The next step is caring for it. We’re asking you to caretake this site so it can remain the premier Cubs community on the internet. Included with caretaking is ad-free browsing of North Side Baseball.

Become a Caretaker

  • Member Statistics

    6,793
    Total Members
    13,056
    Most Online
    Kevin OBrien
    Newest Member
    Kevin OBrien
    Joined
×
×
  • Create New...