Week 16 BEARS vs. Buffalo Bills, Xmas Eve

[Brian707]

Thoughts on the Bears draft pick odds.

 

Thread has some added thoughts and I may actually be understating the #2 pick odds and overstating the #3 pick odds because the LA-DEN game is such a dependent driven result and I more modeled the odds as totally independent, which isn't technically correct, but greatly simplifies the efforts.

 

 

 

Yeah the only game I see the Bears possibly winning is week 18 vs Minnesota.

 

Since I'm bored, and this is off topic, I was looking at Bears 2023 opponents, this should be pretty close to what it ends up being based on current standings.

 

Home:

Green Bay

Detroit

Minnesota

Atlanta

Carolina

NFC West #4-LA Rams or Arizona

Las Vegas

Denver

 

Away:

Green Bay

Detroit

Minnesota

New Orleans

Tampa Bay

NFC East #4 Washington or NYG

Kansas City

LA Chargers

AFC North #4 Pittsburgh or Cleveland

[raw]

I have to give Poles a pass on the entire offseason. He had so little to work with, there was really very little he could have done to make this team a success in one season.

You don’t have to give him a pass. nobody expected him to make the team a success year 1. What he could have done was make the roster better, but he made it much worse.

 

Yeah, I'm probably as OK as anyone with what the Bears did this season. I understand what the thought process was. As I've said, it was "Justin is probably awesome, but I don't want to operate with the assumption that he will be awesome". It's pretty much what Pace did. Got Trubisky, saw a promising rookie season, and threw away money and draft picks assuming that he had the QB.

 

That being said, I agree here. There's a big difference between "let's not assume Fields is awesome" and "let's see if he can make chicken salad out of this feces". Poles could have signed a decent lineman. He was going to throw a bunch of money at Ogunjobi. He could have thrown that at Laken Tomlinson or Austin Corbett and have 1 sure thing OL heading into next season. Like nobody was going to be upset if you paid a lineman and Fields wasn't good enough. It's not wasted money, like trading a 1st for Hollywood Brown if you don't know the QB is good. Granted, he got draft picks from them, but he didn't HAVE to cast aside Mack, Smith and Quinn. And I know Gordon and Brisker may be decent, but he could have taken 1 offensive player under 30 on Day 2 of the draft.

 

The Mack trade was mostly fine as well, but instead of Fields + hoping Jones, Jenkins, Claypool, Brisker, Gordon, and 2023 draft picks are fine, the Bears could have had Fields + 1 solid vet lineman + a Day 2 WR or OL + Jenkins + 1 of Brisker/Gordon + a stud on D in Roquan. Would have less money this offseason, but there's already big time players being taken off the market (Elgton) and will potentially be more.

[BigbadB]

Beleiving that is exactly the problem he absolutely could have gotten a bigger name WR and OL at minimum to jumpstart the offense and teams rebuilding.

 

I don't remember any bigger name WR's that were reasonably available. Hill, Adams and Kirk signed lucrative deals. AJ and Hollywood Brown cost a small fortune in draft picks. After those guys, you have JuJu, Zay Jones, Corey Davis, Devante Parker, Robert Woods, etc....

 

Who could they reasonably afford that improves the WR room this past offseason? Granted, I wanted them to go WR with one of those 2nd rounders. But rookie WR's aren't a guarantee to be better than what they have in the first year, either.

Kirk's deal was worth the money. Add in Zay Jones too. The last guy I liked who hasn't produced is Cedrick Wilson, but you could at least make a case he's stuck behind Hill and Waddle. When he got snaps in Dallas he produced.

 

Juju has been great for KC. Not sure what type of deal he would have taken to come here as he obviously took a one year deal to prove it with Mahomes as his QB.

 

And then Cooper was available in trade for peanuts.

 

Everyone seemed to believe Kirk’s deal wasn’t worth what the Jags paid, IIRC. JuJu and Zay are in this discussion based on hindsight. The Amari deal would have been great. I’ll give you that one.

 

I wanted Burks, Watson or Pickens if and when the Bears picked. Was speechless they went defense instead.

[WrigleyField 22]

Yea, even if Poles was putting Fields into a prove it mode, an extra OL and WR would have been building blocks even if Fields turned into a flop and Poles wanted to pivot.

 

They could have thrown around 25-30M extra in AAV and still had boatloads of 2023 cap space. As we just saw with Jenkins getting an extension done today, once teams re-up their guys, spending a 120M haul in one offseason doesn't look easy. Diminishing return of cap space.

[raw]

 

I don't remember any bigger name WR's that were reasonably available. Hill, Adams and Kirk signed lucrative deals. AJ and Hollywood Brown cost a small fortune in draft picks. After those guys, you have JuJu, Zay Jones, Corey Davis, Devante Parker, Robert Woods, etc....

 

Who could they reasonably afford that improves the WR room this past offseason? Granted, I wanted them to go WR with one of those 2nd rounders. But rookie WR's aren't a guarantee to be better than what they have in the first year, either.

Kirk's deal was worth the money. Add in Zay Jones too. The last guy I liked who hasn't produced is Cedrick Wilson, but you could at least make a case he's stuck behind Hill and Waddle. When he got snaps in Dallas he produced.

 

Juju has been great for KC. Not sure what type of deal he would have taken to come here as he obviously took a one year deal to prove it with Mahomes as his QB.

 

And then Cooper was available in trade for peanuts.

 

Everyone seemed to believe Kirk’s deal wasn’t worth what the Jags paid, IIRC. JuJu and Zay are in this discussion based on hindsight. The Amari deal would have been great. I’ll give you that one.

 

I wanted Burks, Watson or Pickens if and when the Bears picked. Was speechless they went defense instead.

 

I was fine with NOT paying a WR. Like you can't make that trade for Cooper (even if the Browns didn't give up a ton) if you are not sure you have a QB. That is wasted money, paying a guy 20Mil to get 600-700 yards because your QB is on his back or just bad. Plus, he is a FA after 2024, so if Fields wasn't the guy you'd probably have wasted 2022 on Cooper + 2023 because next year would be the year you're either benching Fields if he's Zach Wilson bad or you'd get rid of him and bring in another QB with the 2nd pick and spend a year developing him with no talent around him either.

 

Same w/ Kirk or whoever. Don't want to be stuck paying a WR 18Mil when you don't have anyone worthwhile to throw to him. Juju's actually bad and is a zone beater only. He doesn't help with the Bears separation issues at WR.

[WrigleyField 22]

 

Everyone seemed to believe Kirk’s deal wasn’t worth what the Jags paid, IIRC. JuJu and Zay are in this discussion based on hindsight. The Amari deal would have been great. I’ll give you that one.

 

I wanted Burks, Watson or Pickens if and when the Bears picked. Was speechless they went defense instead.

People were wrong. The Kirk deal is fine. I personally liked Zay, at that time, no hindsight.

[WrigleyField 22]

Kirk's deal was worth the money. Add in Zay Jones too. The last guy I liked who hasn't produced is Cedrick Wilson, but you could at least make a case he's stuck behind Hill and Waddle. When he got snaps in Dallas he produced.

 

Juju has been great for KC. Not sure what type of deal he would have taken to come here as he obviously took a one year deal to prove it with Mahomes as his QB.

 

And then Cooper was available in trade for peanuts.

 

Everyone seemed to believe Kirk’s deal wasn’t worth what the Jags paid, IIRC. JuJu and Zay are in this discussion based on hindsight. The Amari deal would have been great. I’ll give you that one.

 

I wanted Burks, Watson or Pickens if and when the Bears picked. Was speechless they went defense instead.

 

I was fine with NOT paying a WR. Like you can't make that trade for Cooper (even if the Browns didn't give up a ton) if you are not sure you have a QB. That is wasted money, paying a guy 20Mil to get 600-700 yards because your QB is on his back or just bad. Plus, he is a FA after 2024, so if Fields wasn't the guy you'd probably have wasted 2022 on Cooper + 2023 because next year would be the year you're either benching Fields if he's Zach Wilson bad or you'd get rid of him and bring in another QB with the 2nd pick and spend a year developing him with no talent around him either.

 

Same w/ Kirk or whoever. Don't want to be stuck paying a WR 18Mil when you don't have anyone worthwhile to throw to him. Juju's actually bad and is a zone beater only. He doesn't help with the Bears separation issues at WR.

That's all so counterintuitive. Money just isn't that scarce of a resource. You're better building around a failed QB, then adjusting, than not building when you actually already had a QB in place. GMs just aren't good enough to thread needles like that around timing. You have to be in constant build mode or you minimize your usable windows.

[WrigleyField 22]

And cash is used in 3 year windows. Anytime you agrue that 1/3 of that window is gonna be a totally lost year... It's a tough move to justify. They spent like 60% of what they'd need to do on a yearly minimum/year on a three year cycle.

 

Money's getting wasted one way or another. Kirk, Cooper, whoever would look great here even if Fields had busted.

[raw]

 

Everyone seemed to believe Kirk’s deal wasn’t worth what the Jags paid, IIRC. JuJu and Zay are in this discussion based on hindsight. The Amari deal would have been great. I’ll give you that one.

 

I wanted Burks, Watson or Pickens if and when the Bears picked. Was speechless they went defense instead.

 

I was fine with NOT paying a WR. Like you can't make that trade for Cooper (even if the Browns didn't give up a ton) if you are not sure you have a QB. That is wasted money, paying a guy 20Mil to get 600-700 yards because your QB is on his back or just bad. Plus, he is a FA after 2024, so if Fields wasn't the guy you'd probably have wasted 2022 on Cooper + 2023 because next year would be the year you're either benching Fields if he's Zach Wilson bad or you'd get rid of him and bring in another QB with the 2nd pick and spend a year developing him with no talent around him either.

 

Same w/ Kirk or whoever. Don't want to be stuck paying a WR 18Mil when you don't have anyone worthwhile to throw to him. Juju's actually bad and is a zone beater only. He doesn't help with the Bears separation issues at WR.

That's all so counterintuitive. Money just isn't that scarce of a resource. You're better building around a failed QB, then adjusting, than not building when you actually already had a QB in place. GMs just aren't good enough to thread needles like that around timing. You have to be in constant build mode or you minimize your usable windows.

 

I mean, yeah that's true and all. But when you factor in Kirk's 18M and Cooper's 20M and you had a team with limited cap resources AND you had to throw in picks for Cooper at a point when you only had 5 of them, they just weren't logical moves to make, especially in lieu of OL help.

 

It's hard to look at things in hindsight because we now know Fields is legit and those guys would be good with him. But neither is an AJ Brown or Tyreke Hill caliber player. You can generally find guys like that all the time (Claypool may be one of them).

[UMFan83]

I'm just sourcing content from Sports Mockery now but do any of these trades seem realistic, and if so which one do you like the most?

 

Trade 1: Bears trade #2 overall to Colts for #6 overall, 3rd in 2023, 1st in 2024 and Michael Pittman Jr. The Colts will definitely be desperate for a QB but adding Pittman seems greedy in this proposal to only move down 4 spots. Especially if there isn't a consensus 2nd or 3rd best QB meaning the chances of one dropping to 6 is higher. Maybe instead of Pittman, you replace him with a 3rd in 2024?

 

Trade 2: Bears trade #2 overall to Falcons for #7 overall, 2nd in 2023, 4th in 2023, 1st in 2024 and 3rd in 2024 Again maybe seems like one piece too much. Taking away that 2024 3rd might be more realistic.

 

Trade 3: Bears trade #2 overall to Panthers for #8 overall, 2nd in 2023, 4th in 2023, 1st in 2024 and DJ Moore Basically taking pieces of the last 2 trades and putting them together, though I could see DJ Moore being more likely to go in a trade like this than Pittman. Also because the Colts and Falcons are both clearly QB needy and would pick ahead of the Panthers, they may be more desperate to move up than the Colts or Falcons might.

[UK]

I'm just sourcing content from Sports Mockery now but do any of these trades seem realistic, and if so which one do you like the most?

 

Trade 1: Bears trade #2 overall to Colts for #6 overall, 3rd in 2023, 1st in 2024 and Michael Pittman Jr. The Colts will definitely be desperate for a QB but adding Pittman seems greedy in this proposal to only move down 4 spots. Especially if there isn't a consensus 2nd or 3rd best QB meaning the chances of one dropping to 6 is higher. Maybe instead of Pittman, you replace him with a 3rd in 2024?

 

Trade 2: Bears trade #2 overall to Falcons for #7 overall, 2nd in 2023, 4th in 2023, 1st in 2024 and 3rd in 2024 Again maybe seems like one piece too much. Taking away that 2024 3rd might be more realistic.

 

Trade 3: Bears trade #2 overall to Panthers for #8 overall, 2nd in 2023, 4th in 2023, 1st in 2024 and DJ Moore Basically taking pieces of the last 2 trades and putting them together, though I could see DJ Moore being more likely to go in a trade like this than Pittman. Also because the Colts and Falcons are both clearly QB needy and would pick ahead of the Panthers, they may be more desperate to move up than the Colts or Falcons might.

 

You could sign me up for the Carolina one now. There's enough edge rushers between 6-10 who could justify the talent difference with Andersen.

[minnesotacubsfan]

If you can get Pittman, do that

[bukie]

[tweet]

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[UMFan83]

[tweet]

[/tweet]

 

If this was purely a tank move I suspect they would leave Vildor active :D

[raw]

I'm just sourcing content from Sports Mockery now but do any of these trades seem realistic, and if so which one do you like the most?

 

Trade 1: Bears trade #2 overall to Colts for #6 overall, 3rd in 2023, 1st in 2024 and Michael Pittman Jr. The Colts will definitely be desperate for a QB but adding Pittman seems greedy in this proposal to only move down 4 spots. Especially if there isn't a consensus 2nd or 3rd best QB meaning the chances of one dropping to 6 is higher. Maybe instead of Pittman, you replace him with a 3rd in 2024?

 

Trade 2: Bears trade #2 overall to Falcons for #7 overall, 2nd in 2023, 4th in 2023, 1st in 2024 and 3rd in 2024 Again maybe seems like one piece too much. Taking away that 2024 3rd might be more realistic.

 

Trade 3: Bears trade #2 overall to Panthers for #8 overall, 2nd in 2023, 4th in 2023, 1st in 2024 and DJ Moore Basically taking pieces of the last 2 trades and putting them together, though I could see DJ Moore being more likely to go in a trade like this than Pittman. Also because the Colts and Falcons are both clearly QB needy and would pick ahead of the Panthers, they may be more desperate to move up than the Colts or Falcons might.

 

You could sign me up for the Carolina one now. There's enough edge rushers between 6-10 who could justify the talent difference with Andersen.

 

He's basically valuing Pittman and DJ Moore as 2024 3rd round picks. We've seen what WRs go for. Obviously, neither are AJ Brown, Tyreke Hill or Devante Adams, but we've seen Hollywood Brown go for a 1, Claypool for a very high 2nd. Those guys are getting 1st round picks in return and he's treating them like throw-ins. Those would be no-brainer trades for the Bears to make.

 

I think the trade would be more like Bears trade #2, Colts/Panthers trade their 2023 1st, their WR, and another pick (thinking either 2023 4th or 2024 3rd). I'd probably still do that. LOL.

 

And I agree. I think there's DEs I like a lot between 6-45 that justify missing out on Anderson. Myles Murphy (Travon Walker level athlete, who went 1 last year), Tyree Wilson (6'6" monster, with 7' wingspan), Isaiah Foskey from Notre Dame, Jared Verse from Florida State, Felix Anudike-Uzomah K-State, BJ Ojulari from LSU (brother also an edge in NFL), Derick Hall from Auburn, and even 6'7" Andre Carter from Army is an interesting prospect.

 

I'd probably take those trades, add a WR, add an extra pick, and move back up to take whichever position you don't take at 6-8 between OL/DE either late 1 or early 2nd.

[Derwood]

I’m in Florida, so no Bears game in TV.

 

This state sucks in every way.

[jersey cubs fan]

I’m in Florida, so no Bears game in TV.

 

This state sucks in every way.

Congratulations

[Wilson A2000]

Should have declined that penalty. Would rather have had 2nd and 10 than 1st and 15.

[UMFan83]

Velus running like his career is on the line. I find it funny that his teammates come rushing to him when tackled and look to make sure he didn’t fumble.

[gflore34]

Wait a second, came in late, did Velus Jones Jr. actually do something positive on a KO return? I believe he's got these remaining games and maybe, the preseason, to prove he's worth a roster spot.

[UMFan83]

Wait a second, came in late, did Velus Jones Jr. actually do something positive on a KO return? I believe he's got these remaining games and maybe, the preseason, to prove he's worth a roster spot.

 

2 good kickoffs returns today. I don’t doubt he can contribute as a kick returner but not sure it’s worth a roster spot if he can’t get on the field as a receiver when 3-4 other WRs are hurt.

[gflore34]

Wait a second, came in late, did Velus Jones Jr. actually do something positive on a KO return? I believe he's got these remaining games and maybe, the preseason, to prove he's worth a roster spot.

 

2 good kickoffs returns today. I don’t doubt he can contribute as a kick returner but not sure it’s worth a roster spot if he can’t get on the field as a receiver when 3-4 other WRs are hurt.

 

Think you're correct, he'll get some more chances, it's now or never, if continues to cough up the ball, there's a good chance his NFL career is over.

[UMFan83]

Kyler Gordon ballhawk

[minnesotacubsfan]

Gordon has def come on as the season progressed

[gflore34]

Any kind of pass rush is going to make this Bears' secondary even more effective, why I think they should not pass on Anderson - if he's there at #2 not so certain Houston won't take him at #1.