2022-23 Offseason Thread (Cubs)

[Transmogrified Tiger]

 

Another way to look at it is they don’t have any ML centerfielders. Where are the contingencies worse as far as a 2023 team?

 

Catcher, 1B/DH, at least one rotation spot, and the back end of the bullpen. Basically every addition they want to make aside from SS, which as we know is more about the availability of stars than a gaping hole to be addressed.

 

Catcher has Gomes, Higgins, Amaya…1B/DH has Wisdom, Rivas on the 40…They’ve got Stroman/Steele/Hendricks/Wesneski/Thompson as a nominal 5 plus prospects at every level down to the 2022 DSL…How are these worse than what’s in CF for 2023?

 

I dunno man, if an external acquisition doesn't work out, which outcome would I rather have spent more to avoid? Davis/Canario/PCA in CF, Gomes/Higgins at C, Wesneski/Thompson at 5 starter, Mervis at 1B/DH, or Estrada/Rodriguez/Leiter as late inning relievers? If CF isn't at the bottom of that list it's awfully close.

[Backtobanks]

From MLBTR:

 

Senga’s preference is reportedly to play in a big market with a chance to win right now

 

Probably worth noting if Cubs are both locked into Senga but need him to wait patiently for the real heroes to develop and show up

 

The Cubs have the assets (money and prospects) to be a big market team with a chance to win now. Signing Senga, adding someone like Bellinger, maybe adding a tier 2 starter, sign Vasquez, and a smart trade or two makes us a solid team with a chance to win now.

[Bertz]

With the BN follow and Heyman mention, I wonder if Vazquez will be the first shoe to drop for the Cubs when the MLB offices re-open. Has that feel to me

 

And Mooney and Sharma have really been banging the Senga drum; nationally the Cubs haven't been mentioned much compared to the coastal teams

 

It would make a lot of sense. If Jed were to take care of catcher and CF pretty quickly, he could take his time everywhere else.

 

The Cubs only *need* a catcher, center fielder, and one SP. Everything else on the to-do list is optional. But if Jed can get the essentials taken care of by the end of the winter meetings, the rest of the off-season can be a simple matter of adding as many wins as possible with the resources available (which presumably/ideally includes a Turner or Correa).

[Gilby]

This is assuming the payroll ceiling to start the season is below the first luxury tax threshold...

 

As I'm going through different possibilities to make the 2023 Cubs actually good, I'm struggling leaving room for extension AAVs (especially Happ). Wouldn't it make more sense (at least for the team) to agree on arb salaries with Nico and Happ for 2023 and have any extensions this winter (and corresponding AAV) kick in in 2024 after Heyward, Hendricks, and probably Stroman are off the books?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

This is assuming the payroll ceiling to start the season is below the first luxury tax threshold...

 

As I'm going through different possibilities to make the 2023 Cubs actually good, I'm struggling leaving room for extension AAVs (especially Happ). Wouldn't it make more sense (at least for the team) to agree on arb salaries with Nico and Happ for 2023 and have any extensions this winter (and corresponding AAV) kick in in 2024 after Heyward, Hendricks, and probably Stroman are off the books?

 

I don't think there's an objectively wrong answer, it's a matter of how you want to balance it. If you can include 2023 you're going to drag down the total AAV and get that benefit for 2024, 2025, 2026, etc. That seems worth doing if you can pull it off. But 2023 should also represent the lowest payroll for a while so you don't want to hamstring next year too much in the process, especially for someone like Happ whose AAV is gonna be 8 figures regardless.

[Bertz]

A collection of vaguely hot takes on the Cubs off-season, in increasing order of spiciness.

 

1. Extending Ian Happ is a very bad idea

 

 

This might actually be closer to consensus, at least around these parts? But extending a LFer without elite offense is probably questionable under any circumstance, doing so with the glut of outfielders coming up behind him in the Cubs' farm currently would be malpractice. By all accounts Ian is very much a stand-up dude, but it just shouldn't be in the cards

 

 

2. Andrew Heaney is the ideal SP target

 

 

On a per inning basis, there's a good argument for Heaney as SP4 in the FA pool. Yet the biggest contract projection I've seen for him is 3/42, with most places expecting just a 1 year deal. The Dodgers completely overhauled his repertoire last year, and he absolutely shoved. He only pitched half a season, and the dongs will always be a problem, but that's why he's maxing out at Tyler Chatwood money. The durability is less of a concern with the Cubs suddenly being flush in quality youths

 

 

3. I'd rather have Brett Phillips in CF than Cody Bellinger

 

 

Bellinger is certainly the name, and the high end outcomes are exponentially more impactful. But over the last three years Phillips has been MUCH better (2.8 WAR in 576 PAs vs 2.1 WAR in 1143). While it's mostly on the back of defense, the offense isn't hugely in Bellinger's favor either. Last three years Phillips has a 76 wRC+, Bellinger's at 78. Phillips is pitcher bad against lefties (-5 wRC+!) but league average vs. righties.

Bellinger's got a more normal split (53/89 L/R). Given how right handed heavy the Cubs' roster is I'd argue that starker split is more feature than bug. Bellinger's bat will probably be more than just a smidge better moving forward, but I'd much rather have Phillips and an extra $10-15M to throw at other problems

 

 

4. I probably prefer Dansby Swanson to Xander Bogaerts straight up, with rumored price tags accounted for I definitely do

 

 

The last three years, both guys have identical marks of 12 WAR, while Swanson is 1.5 years younger. Dansby is a much better defender too. Everyone is quick to note his anomalously high defensive stats last year, but Bogaerts' were WAY more out of line. Swanson went from good the last few years to incredible last year, Bogaerts went from quite bad the last few years to very good last year. Offensively Bogaerts holds a similar sized edge (hence the equal WARs), though there are some major red flags in Xander's 2022 production. Lowest contact rate of his career, highest groundball rate and lowest average exit velo in 5 years, and a below average barrel rate. His traditional stats were all fine and in line with expectations, so he might be fine, but it gives me the heebie jeebies. At the exact same price I'd lean Swanson, at ~$150M for Swanson and ~$200M for Bogaerts? Give me Swanson all day

 

 

5. I'm actually okay foregoing the SS market

 

 

To be clear, my ideal is to nab Trea Turner. But if Jed wants to avoid the SS market he can fill every other hole on the roster, and not just nominally. Something like:

 

Senga (5/75)

Abreu (2/36)

Heaney (3/42)

Vazquez (2/18)

Yastrzemski (trade) (1/6)

Bullpen (10-15)

Extend Nico (10M AAV)

 

Jed can't hide from making a move for a star forever, but the roster right now has a lot of leaky spots. Abstaining from a SS lets you fill all of them, and do so without substantially impacting the farm or the draft. With the financial books being mostly clean and the player assets untouched, we'd be in as good a position as anyone at the TDL and next offseason. And with the roster fairly complete, it can be the absolute best players rather than worrying about need

 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

1. I think an argument can be made that a team in the Cubs' position can afford some inefficiency to avoid talent drains, especially for a player with a well rounded skill set like Happ's, but as a LF-only player they can stomach that better than most other positions.

 

2. I could probably be talked into Heaney as SP1 in some circumstances, but it probably depends on the contract. If he's getting 2/20ish like contract crowdsourcing says, then you could do some fun things with the rest of the roster, especially if you also took a swing with SP2(e.g. Rogers)

 

3. YES, I would go as far as to say that Phillips is not unique in this regard, but there are a number of low salary/low trade cost CFs that could fit well here in the name of saving resources to use elsewhere.

 

4/5. The Cubs won't become a championship contender again without stars, and as much as they may be able to approximate a similar average win total in 2023 without one of the SS, they will be further away from consistent title contention if they don't get a SS. My thoughts on Swanson are documented already but I would much rather take Bogaerts' bat to the bank than the ambiguity that comes with Swanson's bat and the uncertain degree of his defensive excellence.

[Bertz]

 

Rogers is probably the most well connected beat guy at this point. So interesting to hear him slowly move towards more positivity on the SS front, but bad to see that he still seems south of 50/50 that it happens.

[Clem Fandango]

Dansby would be a disaster. Heyward 2.0. And I base this on nothing except gut feeling. Give me Turner all day.

[Tryptamine]

Dansby would be a disaster. Heyward 2.0. And I base this on nothing except gut feeling. Give me Turner all day.

 

When a guy has to hold a .350 babip to post a 115 and 116 wRC+ and isn't a plus runner, I get very nervous. Fangraphs also had his defensive value take a huge jump last year which is more likely statistical noise than reality.

[Backtobanks]

 

Rogers is probably the most well connected beat guy at this point. So interesting to hear him slowly move towards more positivity on the SS front, but bad to see that he still seems south of 50/50 that it happens.

 

He sounds like a weatherman (it might rain, but maybe not). He's hearing more about Swanson and Turner than Correa and Bogaerts, but that could change. Are they going to write a "big check" and he said he doesn't know, and it depends how big the check is going to be.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I'm pretty skeptical the Cubs are gonna want to mess with a Rule 5 pick for several reasons, but the one path that could make sense to me is a CF like Misner. The timing of finding out if he's a guy or not lines up so if he fails you can dump him and summon Davis/Canario later in the year for the same spot. Maybe the CF options seem unpalatable and/or prices for everything are higher than expected so they find a cheaper solution there to ensure they get different targets elsewhere. It would be a bit at odds with the spirit of Jed's CF comments though.

[Bertz]

I was wondering if there are any trades available for players who are highly paid but not necessarily salary dumps. Looking around the league, I can see several who make sense

 

German Marquez - TT got him on everyone's radar around here a month or two back and it still makes a ton of sense

 

Lance Lynn/Lucas Giolito - There was talk early on that the Sox were going to move one of Giolito/Hendriks/Lynn, maybe getting the Clevinger trade done early was to facilitate that?

 

Eduardo Rodriguez - He had a really bad first year in Detroit, but he had some undisclosed off the field issues that forced him to take a sabbatical (probably a divorce?). Assuming that wasn't criminal or drug related it might be worth seeing if a new city and the Cubs pitching infrastructure can get him back to where he was in Boston

 

Manny Machado - This might be a stretch, hut also why the Padres so frequently connected to Xander Bogaerts the last few weeks? Machado has an opt out after this season that currently he'd be in line to use. The Padres could recoup some of the prospect capital they used on Soto, escape that opt-out, and only modestly downgrade on the field. Any non Preller or Dipoto I'd never entertain this, but I feel like with Preller this could happen (even if not with the Cubs). Jed would get his star infielder, get to keep Hoerner at SS, and only commit 6 years on the high end. Win, win, win.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Similarly a stretch but you could maybe include Tatis in with Machado. He doesn't have age or opt-outs working for his trade candidacy(and therefore the competition would be intense), but they're already talking about how they don't exactly have a position they really want him playing to start the year so the logical leap to trading him to fill other holes/get LT relief/move on from his off-field nonsense is at least within the realm of possibility.

[Bertz]

 

[17 Seconds]

See this myriad of posts on why Swanson's the actual best FA SS fit for Cubs (starting 3rd from the bottom): https://www.northsidebaseball.com/forum/search.php?st=0&sk=t&sd=d&sr=posts&author_id=15686

 

[UMFan83]

Have we identified why Swanson's WAR legit doubled in his 7th MLB season? Is there a chance its an outlier or are there legit changes he made leading to that boost?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Have we identified why Swanson's WAR legit doubled in his 7th MLB season? Is there a chance its an outlier or are there legit changes he made leading to that boost?

 

Defensively he went from a previous career high of +5 RAA to +15, which was 2nd in MLB across all positions last year. UZR says he was +2 last year and has one year better than that in his career, while DRS is more optimistic(+8 last year, +21 in 2020) Offensively he matched his career high from 2020 with a 116 wRC+, and the main difference between those seasons and the rest of his career is a .350 BABIP. IsoP, BB/K, batted ball, HR/FB, plate discipline, none of it noticeably different than other seasons where he was a league average hitter.

[tspain]

Cubbiescrib put out what they think they will happen at the Winter Meetings with the Cubs. Said they Cubs will sign Bogaerts. trade Alzolay, and sign Senga. Why would Cubs trade Alzolay and then sign Senga. Which would you rather have next season? Alzolay is a proven commodity, Senga is not in the Major Leagues. I like Adbert Alzolay and would hate to see him traded. When he is healthy, he is a very good arm.

[Cubswin11]

Cubbiescrib put out what they think they will happen at the Winter Meetings with the Cubs. Said they Cubs will sign Bogaerts. trade Alzolay, and sign Senga. Why would Cubs trade Alzolay and then sign Senga. Which would you rather have next season? Alzolay is a proven commodity, Senga is not in the Major Leagues. I like Adbert Alzolay and would hate to see him traded. When he is healthy, he is a very good arm.

The only proven commodity that Alzolay has is that he’s proven he can’t be healthy and likely isn’t a starter. I’d be fine moving him out if someone gives us something for him, Senga move not mattering.

[Bertz]

Some general points on Swanson in relation to the other shortstops

 

- Over the last three years, he's been just as productive as Bogaerts and Correa. All three have been a substantial amount behind Turner, but Swanson and Bogaerts have identical 12 WARs and Correa is just behind them at 11.7. Swanson was a pretty garbage hitter when he was young, but projection systems only look 3 or maybe 4 years back because those further back seasons offer little to no predictive value

 

- He's the 2nd youngest of the four, which matters quite a bit when looking 5+ years down the road. He's also the 2nd fastest, which tends to be important for a guy staying up the middle defensively

 

- He's the best defender of the four. His metrics in 2022 were clearly anomalous, but so were Bogaerts and so were Correa's last year. You'd reasonably expect Swanson to be a +5 or so defender at short moving forward. Correa would be above average but a few runs behind him, Turner just a smidge less than average, and then Bogaerts clearly below

 

- He has the least raw power among the four shortstops, but by far the most usable in game power. The last three years he's first among the four guys in hard hit rate (% of balls hit 95+ MPH) by a little and first in barrel rate by a lot. He's actually pretty elite on the barrel front, last 3 years he ranks 32nd in MLB, one spot behind Freddie Freeman and a couple spots ahead of guys like Contreras, Kyle Tucker, and Jose Abreu. This is what makes the Heyward comps so weird I feel like Bogaerts has the most Heyward-like qualities

 

- So what's the catch? Contact rate. Carlos Correa is the best contact hitter among the group, his whiff rate is 65th percentile in MLB via Statcast (higher number = good), and he has a lower than average K rate despite a bunch of walks and deep counts. Bogaerts is behind Correa then Turner, then Swanson. And Swansons contact issues are bad. He's 15th percentile in whiff rate, and he's got a 26% K rate the last three years. It's not Javy or anything (Swanson is actually quite patient), but it's bad

 

- Even with all of the above, Swanson is going to get a much smaller contract than the other shortstops. Probably half of what Correa and Turner get, and ~$50M less than Bogaerts. That's an extra $10M for Jed to play with each winter, and multiple fewer years on the back compared to the big boys. That opens up a lot of options here in the short term, and I'd guess keeps Jed more comfortable with adding additional 9-figure contracts in future winters

 

Now ultimately my vote would be to go get one of the two superstars. I generally like this team's depth and they showed out in the second half of last year. I'd rather concentrate more resources in fewer acquisitions, and as part of that go for broke and add Turner or Correa (ideally Turner). But Swanson is still a legitimate impact guy, and his lower cost likely is likely the difference in Jed being able to fill every hole on the roster this winter or having to punt one or two of them.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The Swanson talk and the related worry about how good his bat might be got me looking at where they could raise the offense's floor, and I took another look at Josh Bell. I'm not gonna go all in on him but I think there's an increasing number of cases where he's a smart addition.

 

- He can produce. Outside an anomalous 2020(I swear, every player I look at had an anomalous 2020 in one direction or the other), his wRC+ in recent seasons is 123, 119, 135. He raises the floor for the offense, which is very much needed given the lack of a lineup anchor.

 

- He's very well rounded. In recent years he's hit well from both sides of the plate and does so with strong BB/K, Steamer says 11.6 BB%/17.6 K% for 2023. That's not only a net positive on its own, but his presence means you can go after a riskier profile with other additions or not have to worry about R/L imbalance as much. Bonus note: I know folks worry about his lack of fly balls, but he makes so much contact that I think this is overblown. Case in point, on a per 650 PA basis, the difference in number of LD+FB between Bell and Kyle Schwarber(an *extreme* FB producer) last year was less than one per week.

 

- He doesn't inhibit other moves much. Bell doesn't require a QO, shouldn't get a contract long enough for Jed to be antsy about giving out other long term contracts, and his likely AAV is in the range that if you aren't getting Bellinger the main sacrifice you're making is him v. a similar cost SP(which we are increasingly seeing as bad deals). That means that he still fits in an offseason where you get e.g. a SS, Senga, and Vazquez as more primary hole fillers.

 

- He does have risk. The biggest for me is that he's a post-30 1B, and that profile is filled with players who were productive right up until the moment they fell off the cliff and were never useful(never mind worth their contract) again. You hope that Bell's well rounded profile helps hedge against this(and Freeman/Goldschmidt/Rizzo offer some optimism that profile is improving after the Pujols/Fielder era), but his peaks and valleys within seasons and lack of elite fitness are not great harbingers.

[Bertz]

The Swanson talk and the related worry about how good his bat might be got me looking at where they could raise the offense's floor, and I took another look at Josh Bell. I'm not gonna go all in on him but I think there's an increasing number of cases where he's a smart addition.

 

- He can produce. Outside an anomalous 2020(I swear, every player I look at had an anomalous 2020 in one direction or the other), his wRC+ in recent seasons is 123, 119, 135. He raises the floor for the offense, which is very much needed given the lack of a lineup anchor.

 

- He's very well rounded. In recent years he's hit well from both sides of the plate and does so with strong BB/K, Steamer says 11.6 BB%/17.6 K% for 2023. That's not only a net positive on its own, but his presence means you can go after a riskier profile with other additions or not have to worry about R/L imbalance as much. Bonus note: I know folks worry about his lack of fly balls, but he makes so much contact that I think this is overblown. Case in point, on a per 650 PA basis, the difference in number of LD+FB between Bell and Kyle Schwarber(an *extreme* FB producer) last year was less than one per week.

 

- He doesn't inhibit other moves much. Bell doesn't require a QO, shouldn't get a contract long enough for Jed to be antsy about giving out other long term contracts, and his likely AAV is in the range that if you aren't getting Bellinger the main sacrifice you're making is him v. a similar cost SP(which we are increasingly seeing as bad deals). That means that he still fits in an offseason where you get e.g. a SS, Senga, and Vazquez as more primary hole fillers.

 

- He does have risk. The biggest for me is that he's a post-30 1B, and that profile is filled with players who were productive right up until the moment they fell off the cliff and were never useful(never mind worth their contract) again. You hope that Bell's well rounded profile helps hedge against this(and Freeman/Goldschmidt/Rizzo offer some optimism that profile is improving after the Pujols/Fielder era), but his peaks and valleys within seasons and lack of elite fitness are not great harbingers.

 

Yeah I like Bell a lot. He hits the ball on the ground too much, but he otherwise scratches every other itch and does so without an exorbitant cost. There's also a small benefit in that you don't necessarily have to go LHH in CF, though admittedly that doesn't open up a ton of additional options.

 

But thinking about a lineup such as:

 

Happ (LF)

Suzuki (RF)

Bell (1B)

Mervis (DH)

Swanson (SS)

Hoerner (2B)

Yastrzemski (CF)

Morel (3B)

Vazquez ©

 

Like you mentioned with the lack of a lineup anchor, that is not the menacing middle of the order you'd ideally like. But 2-3-4 each project tonhave wRC+ marks above 120, and 1-8 all project above 100. Even Vazquez is above average compared to the lowly standards of catchers. It's also very strong defensively, with the corner infield spots the only ones not well above average (and Morel got glowing reviews at 3B in the minors, so his struggles last year were hopefully rust).

 

You're capping yourself at ~$25M to spend on the pitching staff, which likely means you've gotta bite the bullet and trade for a guy such as Trevor Rogers. But man that team is deep and well rounded.

[Bertz]

 

Really starting to feel like this is gonna happen

[Gilby]

The Phillies would be a pretty perfect fit for Swanson, so I wonder about the possibilities there with the Turner - Padres talk.