2022-23 Offseason Thread (Cubs)

[17 Seconds]

I expect basically nothing but 3rd tier signings that they hype like they're first tier and I continue to watching maybe 2 or 3 games a season.

There’s been so much noise and smoke about us doing a big addition or two for literal months, idk how that can be your expectation. Literally everyone from Jed to Ross to beat guys to national guys say we’re gonna be doing some significant additions.

Didn’t Jed basically come out and say we weren’t signing a top tier guy?

Ultimately, those near-decade-long deals are going to be avoided by Hoyer this winter. Does that mean it’s something he’d never do down the road? That can’t be ruled out. But the Cubs don’t see this as the time for such a move. It doesn’t rule out this group of players; it just limits how far Hoyer and company will go to get one right now.

 

I’ll say it again: there won’t be long term contracts until Heyward’s is off the books.

 

you have a very strict definition of "long-term"

 

the cubs are clearly spending this winter. not many of these free agents are getting near 10 year deals

[Transmogrified Tiger]

If we're claiming that the front office isn't going to make some big investment until Heyward's contract is off the books, since that's one season away the only logical reason would be that they can't afford both Heyward's contract and another large investment. Except despite having 25 million of AAV in dead money between Heyward and Bote, they're still a zillion dollars below previous spending levels. If you think that Jed is going to be gun shy about long term deals for whatever reason(Heyward PTSD, efficiency fetish, etc) that's fine, but the idea that they will do a big contract but only when Heyward's is off the books doesn't make any coherent sense.

[Bertz]

First I've seen of some media chatter that Trevor Rogers might be available, really like to see that

 

 

Love Rogers. IMO he's the clearest change of scenery guy/pitch design guy since Gausman. I'm curious about the cost though. BTV says something like one of Davis/PCA/Morel and one of Kilian/Thompson. Seems really aggressive for a guy who was a mess last year.

 

Mooney and Sharma tied the Cubs to Chris Bassitt snd Taijuan Walker this AM. Signing one of the 2nd tier SPs and trading for another with some upside would be a good approach to fixing the rotation IMO.

[Cubswin11]

If we're claiming that the front office isn't going to make some big investment until Heyward's contract is off the books, since that's one season away the only logical reason would be that they can't afford both Heyward's contract and another large investment. Except despite having 25 million of AAV in dead money between Heyward and Bote, they're still a zillion dollars below previous spending levels. If you think that Jed is going to be gun shy about long term deals for whatever reason(Heyward PTSD, efficiency fetish, etc) that's fine, but the idea that they will do a big contract but only when Heyward's is off the books doesn't make any coherent sense.

Hendricks is off the books next year too. There’s a path to spend/add a lot of stuff this year and even be over the tax and be well under it next year with a competitive team both years.

[Named After Maddux]

If we're claiming that the front office isn't going to make some big investment until Heyward's contract is off the books, since that's one season away the only logical reason would be that they can't afford both Heyward's contract and another large investment. Except despite having 25 million of AAV in dead money between Heyward and Bote, they're still a zillion dollars below previous spending levels. If you think that Jed is going to be gun shy about long term deals for whatever reason(Heyward PTSD, efficiency fetish, etc) that's fine, but the idea that they will do a big contract but only when Heyward's is off the books doesn't make any coherent sense.

Hendricks is off the books next year too. There’s a path to spend/add a lot of stuff this year and even be over the tax and be well under it next year with a competitive team both years.

Heyward, likely Hendricks, and possibly even Stroman (opt out) could be off the books next year. They should have a lot of capital to add players this winter knowing that the following year they should have even more room.

[Named After Maddux]

First I've seen of some media chatter that Trevor Rogers might be available, really like to see that

 

 

I thought I'd posted the Miami beat article in the non-Cubs thread but not so much. I like Rogers' talent much but don't love the fit right now for Cubs, same for Lopez. Lopez because of the more solid than dynamic velocity. Rogers more because of the below league CSW% and mediocre swstr% creating alot of uncertainty. At least as far as high resource pickups this offseason, the approach should probably more relatively sure players they can combine math, science, and technology in the laboratory/ies to make more better (something Hoyer mentioned) rather than low floor players. If he could be had for like...Morel alone then do it...but that's not happening

 

Edit: Forgot to mention...Rogers' real problem is even the promising 2020-2021 seasons featured just 1-2 successful pitches. The slider's never actually been a positive run value pitch for him

 

I love Rogers as a target obviously. While the slider has always been kinda junky and he’s led by his FB/CH, I wouldn’t discount a guy just because two pitches form the foundation of his repertoire. Justin Steele is a good case study for Rogers with similar fastball properties and the fact that 87.8% of his pitches in 2022 were FB/SL. Like many have said it depends on the price. I’m fine with Morel moving if need be. I wouldn’t love moving Keegan in the same deal. It’s not easy to find 24 year olds who have put up a 3.5 rWAR/4.2 fWAR season already. And I wouldn’t discount the value in covering a rotation spot with a starter on league minimum. You have to feel confident to get him back to what he was in 2021, but it would allow the team to swim in deeper waters if you’ll forgive the fish metaphor.

Edit: “2021 not 202”

[Gilby]

It's funny reading those Athletic articles that are by both Mooney and Sharma. You can kinda tell who wrote each part. I wonder if Mooney will have a line mocking roster crunches after an 88 loss season in every article this off-season. He's batting 1.000 so far.

[Cubswin11]

If we're claiming that the front office isn't going to make some big investment until Heyward's contract is off the books, since that's one season away the only logical reason would be that they can't afford both Heyward's contract and another large investment. Except despite having 25 million of AAV in dead money between Heyward and Bote, they're still a zillion dollars below previous spending levels. If you think that Jed is going to be gun shy about long term deals for whatever reason(Heyward PTSD, efficiency fetish, etc) that's fine, but the idea that they will do a big contract but only when Heyward's is off the books doesn't make any coherent sense.

Hendricks is off the books next year too. There’s a path to spend/add a lot of stuff this year and even be over the tax and be well under it next year with a competitive team both years.

Heyward, likely Hendricks, and possibly even Stroman (opt out) could be off the books next year. They should have a lot of capital to add players this winter knowing that the following year they should have even more room.

Next years FA class is terrible too, outside of Ohtani. So it’s worth spree spending a bit this year since next year there aren’t many big money guys.

[Bertz]

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Yes, this is the type of lowbrow nonsense I can get into. Vazquez only follows about 110 accounts, and Ross is part of that list too. I don't see any that lend themselves to being associated with another team he hasn't already played for(he still follows folks related to the Astros and Red Sox).

 

EDIT: I skimmed too fast, he's also following beat guys for the Braves, Phillies, and Yankees, maybe others.

[tspain]

GraffeNeckMarc on Youtube says where he thinks 206 free agents will land. He said the Cubs would get these 6 players:

Kohl Calhoun, Mychal Givens, Chad Green, Jose Abreu, Jed Lowrey, Christian Vazquez.

[Named After Maddux]

GraffeNeckMarc on Youtube says where he thinks 206 free agents will land. He said the Cubs would get these 6 players:

Kohl Calhoun, Mychal Givens, Chad Green, Jose Abreu, Jed Lowrey, Christian Vazquez.

I appreciate the work but wow I hope he’s wrong. That would be a major bummer of an offseason.

[Bertz]

 

Good writeup on the CF market. It's really frustrating because there's a pretty big "Yeah but" for everyone available. Bellinger's probably broken offensively, while Kiermaier is hyper reliant on speed and just had a major lower body injury. And the trade options all have big questions about either fit or availability.

 

The Dbacks are especially frustrating because at first glance it makes all the sense in the world. They have a stupid number of LHH outfielders and want to trade from that depth for pitching and RHH power. Perfect right?

but you start looking at particulars and nobody except mayybe Alek Thomas lines up.

 

Carroll and Varsho - Too good why would the Dbacks trade them

Alek Thomas - I'll come back to him in a minute

Pavin Smith - Very much not a CF

Jake Mccarthy - Ststcast thinks what he did as a rookie was mostly luck

Dominic Fletcher - Is he actually any better than say, Darius Hill?

 

Alek Thomas makes some sense. He's a true CF, and his rough rookie year hasn't dissuaded the projections at all (3 WAR next year over a full season). He's going to cost quite a bit (have to assume Wesneski is the primary piece going the other way), and given the org's depth CF is a weird fit to spend a lot of trade capital. Plus Jed explicitly talked about getting more power znd fewer balls on the ground and Thomas would set that back significantly.

 

I actually think elsewhere in the NL West might provide the most promise? Trent Grisham is probably more available than we think (the plan is for Tatis to play CF after his suspension). NaM has been stumping for Mike Yastrzemski on Twitter, which I scoffed at upon first hearing but might be actually be the best combo of productive and available.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I can't tell if Yaz is the goldilocks just right CF that helps with several things or the CF with questions on every axis that means he's never preferred over some other set of options/tradeoffs

[Cubswin11]

I can't tell if Yaz is the goldilocks just right CF that helps with several things or the CF with questions on every axis that means he's never preferred over some other set of options/tradeoffs

He’s defensive metrics aren’t great, I’d almost rather just sign Benintendi or Conforto with Happ in CF (or some sort of rotation) or go more in on offense and sign Brantley for LF and put Happ in CF vs giving up stuff for Yaz.

[Backtobanks]

If we're serious about winning, go get Brian Reynolds and quit worrying about CF for a few years. Using MLB trade values as a source, maybe a deal involving Davis, Morel, and Thompson. Once PCA is ready, move Reynolds over to left and trade Happ.

[gflore34]

GraffeNeckMarc on Youtube says where he thinks 206 free agents will land. He said the Cubs would get these 6 players:

Kohl Calhoun, Mychal Givens, Chad Green, Jose Abreu, Jed Lowrey, Christian Vazquez.

I appreciate the work but wow I hope he’s wrong. That would be a major bummer of an offseason.

 

It's probably not as far off as we'd like, look at last off season all the smoke and noise around Carlos Correa. Who did they end up with? Andrelton Simmons - all of the above acquisitions are in the same mode. That is mediocre to bad players on the cheap. Well, I guess Abreu does not fall into the category of mediocre to bad, he's the outlier, the remainder of them certainly qualify.

[TarzanJoeWallis]

GraffeNeckMarc on Youtube says where he thinks 206 free agents will land. He said the Cubs would get these 6 players:

Kohl Calhoun, Mychal Givens, Chad Green, Jose Abreu, Jed Lowrey, Christian Vazquez.

I appreciate the work but wow I hope he’s wrong. That would be a major bummer of an offseason.

 

It's probably not as far off as we'd like, look at last off season all the smoke and noise around Carlos Correa. Who did they end up with? Andrelton Simmons - all of the above acquisitions are in the same mode. That is mediocre to bad players on the cheap. Well, I guess Abreu does not fall into the category of mediocre to bad, he's the outlier, the remainder of them certainly qualify.

Did you forget about Stroman and Suzuki?

[Backtobanks]

If we're serious about winning, go get Brian Reynolds and quit worrying about CF for a few years. Using MLB trade values as a source, maybe a deal involving Davis, Morel, and Thompson. Once PCA is ready, move Reynolds over to left and trade Happ.

 

A Cubs Future built around Pirates and Mets? Let Theo rest in peace man, enough with the curses

 

Just making suggestions that might actually help the Cubs become competitive instead of dancing around picking up players from the dollar store.

[Named After Maddux]

GraffeNeckMarc on Youtube says where he thinks 206 free agents will land. He said the Cubs would get these 6 players:

Kohl Calhoun, Mychal Givens, Chad Green, Jose Abreu, Jed Lowrey, Christian Vazquez.

I appreciate the work but wow I hope he’s wrong. That would be a major bummer of an offseason.

 

It's probably not as far off as we'd like, look at last off season all the smoke and noise around Carlos Correa. Who did they end up with? Andrelton Simmons - all of the above acquisitions are in the same mode. That is mediocre to bad players on the cheap. Well, I guess Abreu does not fall into the category of mediocre to bad, he's the outlier, the remainder of them certainly qualify.

 

They ended up with Marcus Stroman (11th ranked free agent by MLBTR) and Seiya Suzuki (top 20 FA). So two top 20 free agents and I wouldn’t say that’s an incredible offseason, but that’s not “mediocre to bad players on the cheap”. Obviously they added a few more players with variable levels of success (Villar, Robertson, Simmons, Givens), but they landed two top 20 free agents. There was all that smoke with Correa, but what a weird situation for him to land with the deal he had. I wouldn’t have been that jazzed to have been the team to sign him to that deal.

So yes if they end up with a bunch of flotsam and jetsam, the front office deserves a ton of scrutiny, but I can’t look at last offseason and say that’s what happened.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

This uses a lot of words from Sharma/Mooney to not say a ton of new things about the team's plans given the headline, but this paragraph feels noteworthy: https://theathletic.com/3930059/2022/11/25/cubs-offseason-kodai-senga-seiya-suzuki/

 

What is clear is that Hoyer understands just how valuable it can be to have elite defense up the middle. The Cubs have prioritized finding a defense-first catcher to pair with Yan Gomes. Someday soon, Crow-Armstrong, who recently won a minor-league Gold Glove, will be manning center field. The hope is to find a short-term solution for that position in 2023, trying to bolster a defense that noticeably slipped in recent seasons.

 

There's nothing super new in there, but it implies 1) they will be adding an external catcher, so going cheap with Higgins doesn't seem to be in the cards and 2) the short term approach to CF means that Nimmo and any trade targets that take significant trade assets are probably not happening.

 

It also mentions that Senga is on the list of SP they're monitoring but Rodon/DeGrom/Verlander are not happening.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Hoyer doesn’t strike me as a “hey, we have a guy in A ball let’s not do anything” kind of GMident?

Color me not sold that PCA is penned into The Future for such a conservative FO

 

I think the idea is more 'we have a lot of holes and three top 100 caliber prospects who could potentially play CF at AAA, AAA, and A+/AA, so we're not going to use a bunch of resources to get a long term solution when other positions have far worse contingencies'.

[Bertz]

Sharma and Mooney also name checked Andrew Heaney. I like seeing that as I think he's the guy I'm most out of step with the rest of the fanbase in being high on.

[Gilby]

With the BN follow and Heyman mention, I wonder if Vazquez will be the first shoe to drop for the Cubs when the MLB offices re-open. Has that feel to me

 

And Mooney and Sharma have really been banging the Senga drum; nationally the Cubs haven't been mentioned much compared to the coastal teams

[Transmogrified Tiger]

[

I think the idea is more 'we have a lot of holes and three top 100 caliber prospects who could potentially play CF at AAA, AAA, and A+/AA, so we're not going to use a bunch of resources to get a long term solution when other positions have far worse contingencies'.

 

Another way to look at it is they don’t have any ML centerfielders. Where are the contingencies worse as far as a 2023 team?

 

Catcher, 1B/DH, at least one rotation spot, and the back end of the bullpen. Basically every addition they want to make aside from SS, which as we know is more about the availability of stars than a gaping hole to be addressed.