Winning in 2023

[muntjack]

When taking stock its generally better to start from scratch rather than looking at the current year and doing a bunch of adjustments. Because for instance when you look at 2B, how relevant are Villar and Andrelton Simmons to the discussion?

 

Right now on the position player side I think the only spot we should feel outright bad about is catcher. Everywhere else satisfies at least two of the following conditiins:

 

A) has a quality player (projects >2 WAR/600 PAs) lined up to start

B) has a quality youth at Iowa ready to step in

C) can be backed up by Morel and/or Wisdom

 

Because of the above, I also think going broad is the exact opposite approach to take this offseason. The team has multiple options almost everywhere, add a bonafide lineup anchor so that Ross has a few months to work through the various iteratons without it sinking the team. For example if we're spending 30ish million to get 4 WAR, I'd MUCH rather have Carlos Correa than Kolten Wong and Josh Bell.

 

And honestly because of Kilian/Wesneski I think the same exact arguments apply to the starting pitcher group. It'd be far preferable to add one Rodon than two guys in the Eovaldi/Syndergaard/Clevinger tier.

 

The org has some depth now, the name of the game this winter should be consolidation.

 

This is spot on.

 

In addition to this plan, you could look to turn Thompson or, more likely, Steele into an TOR upgrade via trade. Add prospects from the coming OF logjam at both Tennessee (PCA/Cassie/Nwogu/Pinango) and Iowa (Davis/Perlaza/Canario/Hill) next season

 

Steele/Davis/Nwogu/Made for Nola?

 

Steele/Davis/Wicks/Hernandez for Ohtani?

 

(Was looking at Gallen but he's probably unaffordable after this run)

 

Rodon

Nola

Stroman

Thompson

Hendricks

[Tim]

1. Trade for Ohtani, extend (Davis, Christian Hernandez, Thompson, Kilian)

2. Xander Bogaerts 6/180

3. Carlos Rodon 4/100

4. Give Willson the QO, hope he takes it; let him walk if he doesn't

5. Sign a couple of BP vets

6. Sign a (relatively) cheap CF who can shag fly balls like a champ to a 2 yr deal

 

SS Hoerner

LF Happ

3B Bogaerts

DH Ohtani

C Contreras

RF Suzuki

1B Mervis

2B Madrigal

CF Guy who can shag like a champ

 

Bench: Gomes, Wisdom, Morel, Reyes, etc.

 

SP: Rodon

SP: Ohtani

SP: Stroman

SP: Steele

SP: Hendricks

 

Depth: Wesneski, Sampson, others

 

 

That gets us through 2023, then we've got reinforcements coming after that with Canario, PCA, Wicks, Wesneski & more.

[Derwood]

If the Cubs somehow get Ohtani, you need to let Contreras go. There aren’t enough DH at-bars to go around

[Tim]

If the Cubs somehow get Ohtani, you need to let Contreras go. There aren’t enough DH at-bars to go around

Are you bought into the Willson = Bad Catcher thing?

[Derwood]

If the Cubs somehow get Ohtani, you need to let Contreras go. There aren’t enough DH at-bars to go around

Are you bought into the Willson = Bad Catcher thing?

 

Bad catcher? Don’t know. Just don’t know how many seasons he has left in his knees

[Tim]

If the Cubs somehow get Ohtani, you need to let Contreras go. There aren’t enough DH at-bars to go around

Are you bought into the Willson = Bad Catcher thing?

 

Bad catcher? Don’t know. Just don’t know how many seasons he has left in his knees

That's why I'm only willing to commit one year to him.

 

I was thinking that through, though. You definitely make Gomes the personal catcher for Ohtani so that Willson can DH every fifth day. Then I think you spot start Gomes additional games so that you get Willson complete days off, too.

[Tim]

^ Rodon and Ohtani :drool:....Plan A, I say! I still don’t think Davis does anything for Ohtani, but more important to be willing to pay up

 

I’m alot more comfortable with Boagerts than Correa or Turner, still not sure they need to spend $30 a year on a SS running GB rates well above the league average (which all these guys do)

I don't think Ohtani's return will be *that* massive with only one year left on his contract.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

That team would be extremely fun, but it also would go about 40-50 million over the luxury tax, and the rest of baseball probably won't let you trade for the best player in baseball, sign the best FA SP, and sign one of the 3 best position player FAs even if ownership allowed it and Jed wanted to do it.

[Tim]

That team would be extremely fun, but it also would go about 40-50 million over the luxury tax, and the rest of baseball probably won't let you trade for the best player in baseball, sign the best FA SP, and sign one of the 3 best position player FAs even if ownership allowed it and Jed wanted to do it.

Being over the tax would be temporary as Heyward, Contreras, Happ, Gomes, probably Stroman, and possibly Hendricks come off the books after '23. So they'd be able to immediately reset (if that's still a thing). Also, Contreras almost certainly won't accept the QO, so we'd likely "only" be 20-30 million over. :)

 

I'm not sure Rodon is the best FA SP, but he's certainly top 3-5. I'd vote DeGrom as best even if you only get 50% playing time from him.

 

Scratch Rodon and substitute Verlander or the best SP you can sign. I think if you're going to commit to using the assets to trade for Ohtani that you commit to trying to win it all in year 1.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

That team would be extremely fun, but it also would go about 40-50 million over the luxury tax, and the rest of baseball probably won't let you trade for the best player in baseball, sign the best FA SP, and sign one of the 3 best position player FAs even if ownership allowed it and Jed wanted to do it.

Being over the tax would be temporary as Heyward, Contreras, Happ, Gomes, probably Stroman, and possibly Hendricks come off the books after '23. So they'd be able to immediately reset (if that's still a thing). Also, Contreras almost certainly won't accept the QO, so we'd likely "only" be 20-30 million over. :)

 

I'm not sure Rodon is the best FA SP, but he's certainly top 3-5. I'd vote DeGrom as best even if you only get 50% playing time from him.

 

Scratch Rodon and substitute Verlander or the best SP you can sign. I think if you're going to commit to using the assets to trade for Ohtani that you commit to trying to win it all in year 1.

 

I get the sentiment, but it doesn't strike me as particularly good roster planning to bank on being able to replace your starting C, LF, and 1-2 SP for nothing in order to reset. You'll also have increases from Hoerner/Wisdom/Madrigal/Reyes hitting arb, replacing inevitable injury/underperformance, etc. That's functionally sacrificing 2024 because there's no way everything breaks that perfectly. And that's before getting into the lack of realism of the other 29 teams letting you make off with those 3 players at those rates, which strikes me as similarly impossible.

[We Got The Whole 9]

There are several other teams that have run 200+ payrolls before that have very little on the books for 2023 besides the Cubs. I'm pretty sure Boston is going to be a major thorn in our side this off-season.

 

The Giants, Orioles, and those horsefeathering Cardinals (they could sign deGrom and trade for Ohyani and horsefeathers horsefeathers all up). The Cubs are gonna have major competition and they need to flex on em and go beyond the comfort zone.

 

It's critical that they come out of this with a TORP and at least 1 bat you should reasonably be able to pencil in for 20-30% above league average, but I think it's important that he can also add value elsewhere. They really need to put a focus back on the D and do everything they can to get more speed and athleticism in the lineup. The TOOTBLANs have been outrageous with this group and seem to be breaking even Ross.

 

So, focus on the D and base running, get more powerful fly ball hitters who don't run pitiful contact rates, absolutely raise the average velocity significantly. Tall asks but necessary AF. Huge deficiencies on the roster compared to the elite orgs.

[Bertz]

That team would be extremely fun, but it also would go about 40-50 million over the luxury tax, and the rest of baseball probably won't let you trade for the best player in baseball, sign the best FA SP, and sign one of the 3 best position player FAs even if ownership allowed it and Jed wanted to do it.

Being over the tax would be temporary as Heyward, Contreras, Happ, Gomes, probably Stroman, and possibly Hendricks come off the books after '23. So they'd be able to immediately reset (if that's still a thing). Also, Contreras almost certainly won't accept the QO, so we'd likely "only" be 20-30 million over. :)

 

I'm not sure Rodon is the best FA SP, but he's certainly top 3-5. I'd vote DeGrom as best even if you only get 50% playing time from him.

 

Scratch Rodon and substitute Verlander or the best SP you can sign. I think if you're going to commit to using the assets to trade for Ohtani that you commit to trying to win it all in year 1.

 

I get the sentiment, but it doesn't strike me as particularly good roster planning to bank on being able to replace your starting C, LF, and 1-2 SP for nothing in order to reset. You'll also have increases from Hoerner/Wisdom/Madrigal/Reyes hitting arb, replacing inevitable injury/underperformance, etc. That's functionally sacrificing 2024 because there's no way everything breaks that perfectly. And that's before getting into the lack of realism of the other 29 teams letting you make off with those 3 players at those rates, which strikes me as similarly impossible.

 

You've mentioned before, and the Sharma/Mooney article kind of backed it up, but two big moves feels like the right place to set our expectations for what Jed's going to do.

 

Given everything we know about PTR we should assume that the team has to continue operating mindfully of the LT. And given what we know about Jed and Carter, they're going to err on the side of giving it a wider berth, especially this early on. Payroll right now is $140M-something, depending on where arb salaries come down. There's ~$55M coming off the books for sure after '23, with Stroman possible as well. So I could see the 2023 payroll butting up against the LT ($80Mish to spend this offseason), but I really doubt that long term dollars go much past that $55M of rolloff salaries.

 

Maybe there's a third small multi-year deal, like two years to a non-Contreras catcher or a reliever, but that $55M screams to me a $30M player and a $25M player. Probably a hitter and a pitcher respectively but there's nothing forcing that

 

The flip side is I don't think arb money should be much of an issue, and prevents even a big go-for-it offseason from transporting us right back into 2019. The four guys you called out and a couple relievers are the only arb cases the team has until '25, and unless Nico takes home a gold glove I don't expect anyone to have an onerous arb salary (Reyes with all those dongs might have been on track before this year). Stroman's opt out is a pretty big open question, but otherwise if the FO wants to put itself in a position where it has to tiptoe around the LT line that's a lot more feasible than it was five years ago with KB and Javy's (deservedly) ballooning arb salaries.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Has anyone seen a specific number for Smyly's option next year? This year's salary, the incentives, and the buyout seem to be common knowledge, but I can't seem to find any place that spells out how much the option is for. Given the buyout isn't super substantial my guess is it's 8 figures, but given the ambiguity around the rotation and Smyly's strong finish I'm at least curious.

 

So Wittenmyer fairly confidently claimed last night that Smyly's option is for 10 million, and it's a club option and not mutual. Brett for one seems to be taking that at face value with the caveat that the team itself used the word mutual in announcing it: https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2022/09/10/drew-smylys-incredible-outing-and-the-status-of-his-2023-contract-option/

[muntjack]

Is Varsho worth blocking the torrent of OF coming up? Offensively he's basically Wisdom, though obviously he has real defensive value. I'd hate to give up a chunk of the farm and block our top prospects for a .310 OBP in CF.

 

I understand the inclination to skip the SS market, but improving the IF via FA makes a lot of sense when you look at the farm.

[Bertz]

Has anyone seen a specific number for Smyly's option next year? This year's salary, the incentives, and the buyout seem to be common knowledge, but I can't seem to find any place that spells out how much the option is for. Given the buyout isn't super substantial my guess is it's 8 figures, but given the ambiguity around the rotation and Smyly's strong finish I'm at least curious.

 

So Wittenmyer fairly confidently claimed last night that Smyly's option is for 10 million, and it's a club option and not mutual. Brett for one seems to be taking that at face value with the caveat that the team itself used the word mutual in announcing it: https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2022/09/10/drew-smylys-incredible-outing-and-the-status-of-his-2023-contract-option/

 

It's good to have options, but I have a hard time seeing a scenario where keeping Smyly is a good idea. He'd be extremely underwhelming as the sole SP addition, and $10M is way steep for some sort of depth "you can never have too much pitching" type of add.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Has anyone seen a specific number for Smyly's option next year? This year's salary, the incentives, and the buyout seem to be common knowledge, but I can't seem to find any place that spells out how much the option is for. Given the buyout isn't super substantial my guess is it's 8 figures, but given the ambiguity around the rotation and Smyly's strong finish I'm at least curious.

 

So Wittenmyer fairly confidently claimed last night that Smyly's option is for 10 million, and it's a club option and not mutual. Brett for one seems to be taking that at face value with the caveat that the team itself used the word mutual in announcing it: https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2022/09/10/drew-smylys-incredible-outing-and-the-status-of-his-2023-contract-option/

 

It's good to have options, but I have a hard time seeing a scenario where keeping Smyly is a good idea. He'd be extremely underwhelming as the sole SP addition, and $10M is way steep for some sort of depth "you can never have too much pitching" type of add.

 

Yeah I'm a little conflicted. One one hand, 10M is real money, Smyly doesn't miss enough bats to have big upside in the rotation or relief, and with the team's development apparatus you would think you can get the next Smyly for significantly less. On the other hand, trying someone else isn't a risk free venture(sometimes they're Norris or Newcomb), I'd have decent confidence Smyly can soak up middle relief innings if not needed in the rotation, getting Smyly done right away keeps your attention focused on the biggest moves for the offseason, and compared to some other situations Smyly represents a pretty clear bridge to homegrown arms in '24 and beyond. It also depends on how willing the team is to deal from prospect depth. If they are, then those targets are more likely to be lower cost and Smyly makes increasing sense. If not then you probably need to use your available resources more efficiently.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I've become pretty locked in on Daulton Varsho as a trade target. Get on it Hoyer!

 

Also my favorite choice of phrasing, in years if not ever, from Cubs media was the "at minimum" in that offseason article from The Athletic. Finally they give the teeny tiniest bump up in expectations beyond bare minimum...Winning in 2023 should be about being more than one of the 4028012408 teams invited to the playoffs

 

Also also I'm...really into skipping the SSs entirely now

 

Even setting aside muntjack's concerns about Varsho as a target, I don't think there's the slightest chance Arizona would consider trading him. He's a positionally flexible OF/3rd catcher playing at a 4 win pace at pre-arb salaries. Yes they have a couple big OF prospects coming through, but none of them are so positionally limited nor are they locked in at DH to the point where there isn't plenty of playing time for everybody.

[JeffH]

Is Varsho worth blocking the torrent of OF coming up? Offensively he's basically Wisdom, though obviously he has real defensive value. I'd hate to give up a chunk of the farm and block our top prospects for a .310 OBP in CF.

 

I understand the inclination to skip the SS market, but improving the IF via FA makes a lot of sense when you look at the farm.

 

I'd even say he's worth trading a vaunted OF prospect for. LHH flyball hitting CF with 24 HRs this year, top defense, pre-arb next year...terrific fit and probably not crazy different from the player Crow-Armstrong can be + offer an emergency catcher. League average OBP from a CF is .305, Cubs at .303

 

I want to be active in FA, just am not sure they need to obligate themselves to a $30 million dollar SS for the sake of spending the money. I do think the team’s best off moving Hoerner to 2B, really like Swanson’s fit and flip flop on Correa, but am not sure that’s

absolutely necessary to get a very good 2023 team with room to grow

 

Even setting aside muntjack's concerns about Varsho as a target, I don't think there's the slightest chance Arizona would consider trading him. He's a positionally flexible OF/3rd catcher playing at a 4 win pace at pre-arb salaries. Yes they have a couple big OF prospects coming through, but none of them are so positionally limited nor are they locked in at DH to the point where there isn't plenty of playing time for everybody.

 

I don’t know about this unavailable thing in 2020s MLB. They're 6(!!) LHHs deep at the position: Varsho, Carroll, Thomas, McCarthy, Smith, and Fletcher in AAA. Beer’s another younger LHH with some OF experience…I wonder how far Steele, Wesneski, and Canario can get?

 

Good horsefeathering grief. Are you on dope?

[CubinNY]

Suzuki is having a good end of the season.

[d_money]

I’m liking what Javier Assad has been able to do with his opportunities. If he continues, he’ll be a nice depth piece for 2023

[Bertz]

Suzuki is having a good end of the season.

 

Yeah this has been really big. On August 1st you'd have said that Suzuki would probably be fine next year, but you wouldn't feel super confident. At this point there's no need to worry about him, the question is whether he's a solid starter or the borderline star he was projected to be coming over.

[muntjack]

His numbers are actually a bit worse since Aug. 1st, but I get your point. He's had a nice stretch here lately.

[muntjack]

No matter who you'd like the targets to be, consolidation should top the to-do list this offseason. Starting pitching depth and OF prospects are strengths. The IF and the top of the rotation are weaknesses.

 

Stroman

Steele

Thompson

Sampson

Hendricks

Wesneski

Assad

Kilian

Mills

Alzolay

 

are all guys who could feasibly start a game next season, and that doesn't include most of the Iowa rotation.

 

Canario

Davis

PCA

Hill

Perlaza

Nwogu

Pinango

Cassie

 

will all be at Tennessee or Iowa in 2023.

 

It makes a lot of sense, packaging some of these guys to upgrade in the aforementioned areas of need.

[Bearded_Beef]

I wonder how far Steele, Wesneski, and Canario can get?

 

Good horsefeathering grief. Are you on dope?

 

What's so must have about those guys? A couple unvaxxed low 90s BOR arms on a team that, if they show some chutzpah this offseason, might be able to run Kyle Hendricks as a 4th or 5th starter next year. How long's Steele going to run a HR/FB 3% below league average with 92, a below league CSW, and a near double digit walk rate? Wesneski's another non-power arm. Both of these guys are more cheap than young, 28 and 25 next year. Canario...well I like Canario and tbh had Alcantara bc of the 40 situation...Yeah, if these guys make it through the offseason I'll be all woo Cubs but these aren't untouchable players

 

And of course they'd be getting pitching of some kind back, someone Bryce Jarvis-ish to send to the pitching lab

 

Honestly, I really appreciate your baseball acumen. I had no idea who Hearn was until you, you throw out stats that I have to google to understand why they're important and you generally seem to keep up with our system, maybe better than some of the people paid to write about it. On our last rebuild, I had no idea who Jerimeir Candelario was until you brought him up (often) on PSD. Similarly though, I remember you dumping on our highest prospects, including guys like Bryant (K%, contact etc). Do you really believe that Steeles ceiling is a BOR starter? Or are you just irritated at the disproportionate amount of love that he (and maybe some other prospects) are getting? Your posts read like you've been more wound up recently.

[CubinNY]

No matter who you'd like the targets to be, consolidation should top the to-do list this offseason. Starting pitching depth and OF prospects are strengths. The IF and the top of the rotation are weaknesses.

 

Stroman

Steele

Thompson

Sampson

Hendricks

Wesneski

Assad

Kilian

Mills

Alzolay

 

are all guys who could feasibly start a game next season, and that doesn't include most of the Iowa rotation.

 

Canario

Davis

PCA

Hill

Perlaza

Nwogu

Pinango

Cassie

 

will all be at Tennessee or Iowa in 2023.

 

It makes a lot of sense, packaging some of these guys to upgrade in the aforementioned areas of need.

Except it doesn't work like that. Two good, not excellent prospects do not equal a great pitching prospect or infiled prospect. If they want to go with I have too many OF prospects and try to match with a team that has too many starting pitching prospects, they might not find anyone to match up with. They will need to get creative to avoid a situation where they are changing a dime for a nickel.