Winning in 2023

[Cubswin11]

Wouldn’t mind Brandon Belt as the LHH/1B add this offseason. Not having the greatest year but he gets on base and hits RHP plus away from SF the power may play up a bit. Gonna be 35 so shouldn’t cost much either and doubt he gets a QO.

[Backtobanks]

Bell plus Rodon would be phenomenal, but I still have trouble believing Ricketts is going to spend that much.

[Tim]

So what are the thoughts on Dansby Swanson? I’m noticing he fits my vision, possibly a shinning, of a 2023 team built around pitching, defense, and HRs. He’s the only true defensive upgrade at SS over Hoerner, a GG caliber 2B during 2020 *and* has hit more HRs than all but Turner among the big name FAs…Notably he’s a flyball hitter, the Cubs’ offense has the highest GB% in the MLB

 

Also also what are the thoughts on Correa the player and his 2022 season as opposed to Correa the concept (mostly centered on being 28 star without a QO)? Big drop in defense, more Ks, fewer BBs, max EVs have dropped, big jump in GBs to ~45%…

I think the safest bet with all these guys is to take a three year average and work with that. This treats the covid year as a full year, but does it for all of them and I don't want to take the time to do the more rigorous math.

 

Swanson: 10.5 fwar - 28 y

Correa: 9.1 fwar - 27 y

Turner: 13.9 fwar - 29 y

Bogaerts: 10.2 fwar - 29 y

 

Which is a pretty clear win for Turner. However, if you look at total WAR, it falls like this:

 

Swanson: 14.7 fwar - 28 y

Correa: 28.8 fwar - 27 y

Turner: 29.7 fwar - 29 y

Bogaerts: 32.5 fwar - 29 y

 

Which is a pretty clear win for Bogaerts, but really says anyone but Swanson.

 

Frankly, since we have Hoerner to play SS, I'd prefer to get the one who is least dependent on defense for their value. That would point to Bogaerts or Turner. I'd really prefer not giving up the penalty for the QO, all things being equal, which points to Correa. I'd rather get a slight underpay (or shorter contract) for the guy coming off the down year, rather than overpay for the guy coming off a career year; which would point again to Correa. Durability matters a lot for a guy you're giving a 10 year contract to, so that probably points to anyone but Correa.

 

In the end, I'd probably vote for Bogaerts if he's willing to play 2nd or 3rd base. Turner would be my really close second choice, and Correa a fairly distant third. I don't trust Swanson's breakout enough to give the man a 10 year deal. I'd pass hard if he's the only one left standing. I just don't see him in the same class as the other three.

[Tim]

That assumes a similar contract for all four guys. If there are big differences in the payout, then obviously that's a huge factor, too.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Swanson is probably the hardest for me to talk myself into enthusiasm about, and it comes down to how confident I am in his bat. I haven't looked into it deeply to see if there's a good reason for his post-pandemic turnaround at the plate, but the career 80 wRC+ up until covid spooks me out of a big contract. Doubly so when the team really needs to get strong offensive production regardless of position out of their big signing given the rest of the roster.

[Bertz]

I don't love Swanson or Bogaerts. Swanson looks like your classic guy having an out of nowhere career year in his walk year. And Statcast seems to indicate that the bottom is falling out of Bogaerts.

 

I think Turner's the pretty clear top guy, but I also see him as a safe bet to re-sign with the Dodgers. So give me Correa and let's call it a day.

[Cubswin11]

Yeah I have no interest in Swanson. Correa + whatever pitching (Rodon, Thor, deGrom, etc) is what I’d want. I also like the idea of trying to keep one of Smyly or Miley.

[Backtobanks]

That assumes a similar contract for all four guys. If there are big differences in the payout, then obviously that's a huge factor, too.

 

I would think there will be a big difference between Swanson and the other three.

[Tim]

I don't love Swanson or Bogaerts. Swanson looks like your classic guy having an out of nowhere career year in his walk year. And Statcast seems to indicate that the bottom is falling out of Bogaerts.

 

I think Turner's the pretty clear top guy, but I also see him as a safe bet to re-sign with the Dodgers. So give me Correa and let's call it a day.

I didn't go that deep on Bogaerts. Is his exit velocity is way down?

 

Honestly, I can get behind not spending a huge contract on any of these guys. They all have significant red flags. I'd happily do a 5 year, big dollar deal, though. Just not with Swanson.

[Tim]

I'm stiiiill leaning towards Contreras being that big signing? As far as I can tell he's the best available hitter

Aaron Judge is *currently* the best available hitter. By a mile.

 

You may be assuming the Yankees extend him, though.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

One of the things I'm finding tricky with plotting out the offseason is just how much flexibility is taken away when you sign one of the SS. Assuming a 35M AAV, you'd spend as much on a Correa and a Smyly as you did on Seiya + Stroman. I'm not saying you shouldn't sign one of them, but it does mean you have to make some tough choices with the rest of the holes they might try to fill, even if you assume they'll jump payroll all the way to the luxury tax line(which I think is too optimistic for 2023).

 

On that note, the two uncertain decisions that seem to be the biggest factor in those tradeoffs are at catcher and in the rotation. There's literally no outcome for the catcher position that would completely surprise me, but the range of expenditures is significant. And given Hendricks' setback, Jed's comments about pitching depth and liking to integrate prospects via the bullpen, I'm wondering if they're going to try to add 2 SP this year, which could be done in any number of different ways.

[CubinNY]

Aaron Judge is *currently* the best available hitter. By a mile.

 

You may be assuming the Yankees extend him, though.

 

Yeah, I don’t expect Judge to hit FA in any meaningful way. Maybe for the show but the Yankees would be insane to actually let him walk

I don't want anything to do with Judge's next contract. His injury history scares me too much.

[Bull]

This has been my unpopular opinion for awhile now, but I don’t see any major signings until Heyward is off the books. Look forward to another year of throwing things at the wall and seeing if they stick.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

This has been my unpopular opinion for awhile now, but I don’t see any major signings until Heyward is off the books. Look forward to another year of throwing things at the wall and seeing if they stick.

 

What counts as a major signing for you? They added a 5/100 and 3/71 contract last offseason, and not too many had longer than 5 years or higher than 24 AAV(and even fewer had both).

[Bull]

This has been my unpopular opinion for awhile now, but I don’t see any major signings until Heyward is off the books. Look forward to another year of throwing things at the wall and seeing if they stick.

 

What counts as a major signing for you? They added a 5/100 and 3/71 contract last offseason, and not too many had longer than 5 years or higher than 24 AAV(and even fewer had both).

Should have said “top tier.” They will replace Heyward’s contract with a Heyward level contract when it’s gone but not before.

[17 Seconds]

This has been my unpopular opinion for awhile now, but I don’t see any major signings until Heyward is off the books. Look forward to another year of throwing things at the wall and seeing if they stick.

 

What counts as a major signing for you? They added a 5/100 and 3/71 contract last offseason, and not too many had longer than 5 years or higher than 24 AAV(and even fewer had both).

Should have said “top tier.” They will replace Heyward’s contract with a Heyward level contract when it’s gone but not before.

 

heyward's contract is only top tier in length. stroman makes more than him this year.

[Bull]

Yeah, I believe that was Rizzo Bryant money coming off. I think they’ll be able to spend what comes off this year, but the next big signing will be when Heywards comes off.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Thinking through the way the front office's approach in their tenure so far, I wonder if they might not go for one of the SS if the right trade candidate becomes available. In particular I'm thinking about Rafael Devers.

 

Why would Boston trade him? They're kind of a mess, they aren't good enough right now, six of their top 10 position players + SP are FA, and while they'll have money to spend they can't reasonably spend their way alone to competition in one offseason given how many holes there are to fill. That's a problem with Devers being one year from FA and early media reports are not very optimistic about an extension. Even though it's not popular, we've seen Bloom make this move before with the Mookie trade, and if they're bearish on Devers' future, whether it's his glove forcing to 1B/DH or his bat not persisting for some reason, the path is there for him to be available.

 

Then the question might be, why trade for Devers when others are there for just money? The biggest one is age, Devers doesn't turn 26 til October, so if you're extending him prior to the season you're cutting off a significant amount of unproductive years compared to signing one of the SS, especially if it's not Correa you're signing. With Devers only a year from FA the cost would be noticeable but not obscene, and if you didn't keep Willson you'd have a head start on backfilling the cost, especially with many non-QO SP of interest. Additionally, Devers fits the team's need really well. He's an outstanding LHH power hitter that can stay at 3B at least for a few years, and the bat is well rounded enough that it may prove a better value than banking on the defense/positional value of some of the SS.

 

What would that trade look like? The Betts deal again proves a useful blueprint. Mookie was a year older and a lot better, but also the Cubs wouldn't be taking back the equivalent of David Price's salary either. So if we roughly pattern match to that deal, it could maybe look something like Morel, Herz, and Triantos? That's not a small price, but if you consider the Contreras pick is roughly equivalent to Triantos and the ultimate limitations of those other 2, plus the benefit of not having to win a bidding war and getting a younger star, I can definitely see it being preferable for a FO that seems to fear too much age/contract downside.

[Bertz]

 

 

I mentioned up thread that I think it makes sense this winter to target a few $5-10M arms to round out the pen rather than the 4-5 $0-5M arms Jed has added the last few years. Even if you don't like these three guys in particular it shows there's some interesting options likely to reside in that price neighborhood

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Britton as next year's Robertson feels almost too obvious the fit is so good. I've also liked Estevez for a while, in general I'm really keen on pitchers who have only known Colorado(Marquez is the other I'm eyeing) this offseason, both for altitude and player development reasons. Kimbrel I can take or leave, there's plenty of reason to think he can be really good and might welcome the chance to work with the coaching staff again, but I can also see him getting more than I'd prefer to spend on a reliever, and his velocity is at an all time low at 34 so he's closer to being truly cooked than he ever has.

[Named After Maddux]

Britton as next year's Robertson feels almost too obvious the fit is so good. I've also liked Estevez for a while, in general I'm really keen on pitchers who have only known Colorado(Marquez is the other I'm eyeing) this offseason, both for altitude and player development reasons. Kimbrel I can take or leave, there's plenty of reason to think he can be really good and might welcome the chance to work with the coaching staff again, but I can also see him getting more than I'd prefer to spend on a reliever, and his velocity is at an all time low at 34 so he's closer to being truly cooked than he ever has.

 

Of the three, Kimbrel is really the dude I feel least strongly about. I left this out of the thread, but I really wonder if you could get Kimbrel cheaper than most other teams and so maybe it just makes sense to roll the dice. I’m leery of any pitcher the Dodgers can’t fix but maybe the Cubs really feel like they have the secret sauce.

Britton and Estévez are really fun options and my personal favorites of the three.

[UMFan83]

Britton as next year's Robertson feels almost too obvious the fit is so good. I've also liked Estevez for a while, in general I'm really keen on pitchers who have only known Colorado(Marquez is the other I'm eyeing) this offseason, both for altitude and player development reasons. Kimbrel I can take or leave, there's plenty of reason to think he can be really good and might welcome the chance to work with the coaching staff again, but I can also see him getting more than I'd prefer to spend on a reliever, and his velocity is at an all time low at 34 so he's closer to being truly cooked than he ever has.

 

Of the three, Kimbrel is really the dude I feel least strongly about. I left this out of the thread, but I really wonder if you could get Kimbrel cheaper than most other teams and so maybe it just makes sense to roll the dice. I’m leery of any pitcher the Dodgers can’t fix but maybe the Cubs really feel like they have the secret sauce.

Britton and Estévez are really fun options and my personal favorites of the three.

 

Kind of crazy that Kimbrel has been absolute garbage since the 2018 playoffs with the exception of 36 insanely good innings for the Cubs when we were looking to trade him. I know there's sample size stuff and ERA being a flawed stat but that 2021 Cubs ERA really jumps out

 

2019 CHC - 6.53

2020 CHC - 5.28

2021 CHC - 0.49

2021 CWS - 5.09

2022 LAD - 4.57

 

He was worth 2.5 wins during his 2021 stint with the Cubs and -1 win during the other 3.5 seasons.

[champaignchris]

Britton as next year's Robertson feels almost too obvious the fit is so good. I've also liked Estevez for a while, in general I'm really keen on pitchers who have only known Colorado(Marquez is the other I'm eyeing) this offseason, both for altitude and player development reasons. Kimbrel I can take or leave, there's plenty of reason to think he can be really good and might welcome the chance to work with the coaching staff again, but I can also see him getting more than I'd prefer to spend on a reliever, and his velocity is at an all time low at 34 so he's closer to being truly cooked than he ever has.

 

Of the three, Kimbrel is really the dude I feel least strongly about. I left this out of the thread, but I really wonder if you could get Kimbrel cheaper than most other teams and so maybe it just makes sense to roll the dice. I’m leery of any pitcher the Dodgers can’t fix but maybe the Cubs really feel like they have the secret sauce.

Britton and Estévez are really fun options and my personal favorites of the three.

 

Kind of crazy that Kimbrel has been absolute garbage since the 2018 playoffs with the exception of 36 insanely good innings for the Cubs when we were looking to trade him. I know there's sample size stuff and ERA being a flawed stat but that 2021 Cubs ERA really jumps out

 

2019 CHC - 6.53

2020 CHC - 5.28

2021 CHC - 0.49

2021 CWS - 5.09

2022 LAD - 4.57

 

He was worth 2.5 wins during his 2021 stint with the Cubs and -1 win during the other 3.5 seasons.

 

He’s basically been awful since the 2018 All Star Break for 4 different teams, with the exception of the 36 amazing innings he pitched for the Cubs in 21. At this point that looks like a pretty small island in an ocean of bad. Maybe the Cubs know the magic words to get him to being a good pitcher again, but I certainly wouldn’t want them to spend a lot of money to find out.

 

Britten… that mid-teens Orioles bullpen was so nasty. Maybe he’s Mychel Givens. Maybe he’s Brad Brach. But I’d love to see if he has anything left in the tank.

[Bertz]

Britton as next year's Robertson feels almost too obvious the fit is so good. I've also liked Estevez for a while, in general I'm really keen on pitchers who have only known Colorado(Marquez is the other I'm eyeing) this offseason, both for altitude and player development reasons. Kimbrel I can take or leave, there's plenty of reason to think he can be really good and might welcome the chance to work with the coaching staff again, but I can also see him getting more than I'd prefer to spend on a reliever, and his velocity is at an all time low at 34 so he's closer to being truly cooked than he ever has.

 

Of the three, Kimbrel is really the dude I feel least strongly about. I left this out of the thread, but I really wonder if you could get Kimbrel cheaper than most other teams and so maybe it just makes sense to roll the dice. I’m leery of any pitcher the Dodgers can’t fix but maybe the Cubs really feel like they have the secret sauce.

Britton and Estévez are really fun options and my personal favorites of the three.

 

Kind of crazy that Kimbrel has been absolute garbage since the 2018 playoffs with the exception of 36 insanely good innings for the Cubs when we were looking to trade him. I know there's sample size stuff and ERA being a flawed stat but that 2021 Cubs ERA really jumps out

 

2019 CHC - 6.53

2020 CHC - 5.28

2021 CHC - 0.49

2021 CWS - 5.09

2022 LAD - 4.57

 

He was worth 2.5 wins during his 2021 stint with the Cubs and -1 win during the other 3.5 seasons.

 

I don't know if it's the cause or a symptom, but Kimbrel's performance seems to move pretty much in lockstep with his velo. Given his age that would make me very uncomfortable, though the Cubs did just get 37 year old David Robertson to sport his highest velo mark in 11 years.

[Cubswin11]

I’ve always wanted to get Estevez, seems like there’s some more to unlock there with our infrastructure and the Rockies being the Rockies + Coors.