2022 Trade Deadline

[We Got The Whole 9]

I think my primary problem with this team is I am having trouble seeing the road back to a World Series title with this bunch and with the farm system. Don't get me wrong, I like the farm, I like Happ and Contreras, and I think this team has a lot of useful pieces on it. However, I just don't see it. I do not think there is an obvious prospect in the system at the moment that could be a perennial MVP candidate after getting called up. I don't see a nucleus of position players that could give this team a years-long championship window. The rotation also has its share of question marks, although I've been pleasantly surprised with Steele and Thompson so far. From my point of view, if the team kept Happ, extended Contreras, and made moves in the offseason, we could see a repeat of 2008/2009 over the next two seasons, but I also remember how ugly things got once that team went into decline.

 

I don't feel as strongly about keeping Happ and Contreras as some other posters do for those reasons. It's not to say that I want them gone at any price, but if they can bring back some high quality guys to increase the odds that the Cubs hit on multiple high level prospects in the next 2-4 years, then I'm in favor of it.

Well this is stating the obvious but this is why they need to hit on a few big additions in FA. the team isn't that far off from having a 2015 season again. They don't have a Bryant but doesnt that outlook change immensely if they add Correa, Xander, or Turner, and a TORP?

[Outshined_One]

They don't have a Bryant but doesnt that outlook change immensely if they add Correa, Xander, or Turner, and a TORP?

 

I feel like that would put the team to roughly where it was in 2007 (when the team added Soriano and Lilly), which isn't necessarily a bad thing, but it does not feel like something that would be sustainable for more than 2-3 years.

 

I don't know, maybe a WS ring and three straight NLCS appearances made me unrealistic, but I just don't get the warm fuzzies when I think about this current group.

[muntjack]

Two top of the rotation pitchers turns a bad team into a threat and a decent team into a WS contender. This is already a decent team, record notwithstanding.

 

Contreras and Happ are both top 20 in the NL in wOBA. Morel is legit. I don't buy that they need a star in the lineup. Deal the relievers, audition Mervis and Slaughter and anyone else who might have unlocked something, go hard after Musgrove, and be prepared to add next year.

[Tim]

I think my primary problem with this team is I am having trouble seeing the road back to a World Series title with this bunch and with the farm system. Don't get me wrong, I like the farm, I like Happ and Contreras, and I think this team has a lot of useful pieces on it. However, I just don't see it. I do not think there is an obvious prospect in the system at the moment that could be a perennial MVP candidate after getting called up. I don't see a nucleus of position players that could give this team a years-long championship window. The rotation also has its share of question marks, although I've been pleasantly surprised with Steele and Thompson so far. From my point of view, if the team kept Happ, extended Contreras, and made moves in the offseason, we could see a repeat of 2008/2009 over the next two seasons, but I also remember how ugly things got once that team went into decline.

 

I don't feel as strongly about keeping Happ and Contreras as some other posters do for those reasons. It's not to say that I want them gone at any price, but if they can bring back some high quality guys to increase the odds that the Cubs hit on multiple high level prospects in the next 2-4 years, then I'm in favor of it.

I think you're underestimating the ceiling of some guys in the system. It would take them hitting on their 80-90 percentile projections, but guys like Kevin Alcantara or Christian Hernandez could be that type of player. Heck, what PCA is showing could end up being there, too. There's also the #7 pick in the draft coming up that should add to that list, too.

 

I feel pretty good about there being enough pitching in the system to fill the 3-5 and even the #2 spot in the rotation effectively in coming years. Where they lack is a really good #1 starter. But there aren't really anywhere close to 30 "#1" starters in MLB at any given time. If we've got a whole bunch of really solid middle of the rotation guys, then we'll occasionally get good seasons from them. And it's certainly possible that one of the arm strength guys in the system like Palencia pops and now you've got it.

 

I'm actually optimistic that we'll be a "pretty solid" team next year and get to a sustainable window after that. I don't know that we'll sign anyone at the Correa-level this offseason. But I think we could easily see multiple signings at the Stroman & Seiya level that really raises the floor for the team.

[squally1313]

They don't have a Bryant but doesnt that outlook change immensely if they add Correa, Xander, or Turner, and a TORP?

 

I feel like that would put the team to roughly where it was in 2007 (when the team added Soriano and Lilly), which isn't necessarily a bad thing, but it does not feel like something that would be sustainable for more than 2-3 years.

 

I don't know, maybe a WS ring and three straight NLCS appearances made me unrealistic, but I just don't get the warm fuzzies when I think about this current group.

I think it's a combination of a couple things:

 

1. Lot of ways to skin a cat. May be conflating this conversation with the 'Win in 2023' one, but if that's what you're talking about, trying to compare this to something like 2014 isn't exactly apples to apples. At this point in the season, the team basically had Rizzo and Arrieta having breakout seasons, Hendricks showing up late in the year and looking like a potential piece, and then Shark having a good year that we turned into Russell (and Hammel), who was still a couple years away. The rest of the roster was putrid, as reflected in the 73-89 record. Now, you could argue that we don't have a Rizzo/Arrieta at this point, or if we do they're about to be shipped out in the next few weeks. But, to channel Don Draper, that's what the money is for. I think you could argue this current roster could end up showing up a few more complementary players (Hoerner, Madrigal if he figures it out again, Happ if he stays, Steele/Thompson) than what you were looking at going into 2015. And also worth noting that 2015's team won like 97 games, which is not a requirement, and brings me to my next point.

 

2. You don't need to be the Dodgers to win a World Series. I wish we were, and I know if you look at the Dodgers or Yankees (though I don't think we'll ever spend that much) or Astros to an extent it seems pretty hopeless. But we could be the Braves. Definitely could be the Nats. Could probably be the Red Sox. 40% of the teams make the playoffs. I wish there was a stronger correlation between best team over seven months and World Series champion, but there hasn't been, and it just got weaker with the new rules. Find a way to 90 wins by 2024 and I'll be fine.

[Tim]

No Bryant?! Contreras has a .392 OBP and is on pace for ~6 f and rWAR! Suzuki’s also got the skills of a 5 WAR player

 

I also thought the Rodon mention would get more heat. You can win with great pitching and a mid-tier (likely ascending) lineup - what the Brewers have been doing since 2018 (I also seem to be alone in the camp that the pitching on the farm > the hitting in 2022)

Someone is going to give Rodon the Gausman contract and I don't want it to be the Cubs. Way too much injury history with that one.

[muntjack]

So, can anyone explain to me why we wouldn't just keep the LF that is younger than either Gallo or Conforto, is not dealing with any injuries, and is on pace for 4.5 WAR?

 

I get that in Conforto's best season ever he had a slightly higher WAR, but we can't be counting on his best season coming off of shoulder surgery.

 

For suffering the likely drop-off from Happ to either of these guys, we get a package of prospects, and that has to be factored in, but unless it's a top-10 prospect or a knocking-on-the-door, ace-type, then I'd argue it isn't worth it.

 

Acquiring more 'potential 3rd starter' guys isn't worth it.

 

To put it another way, if Happ was on a different team, we'd be lamenting the fact that there was no reasonable scenario in which we could acquire him.

[squally1313]

No Bryant?! Contreras has a .392 OBP and is on pace for ~6 f and rWAR! Suzuki’s also got the skills of a 5 WAR player

 

I also thought the Rodon mention would get more heat. You can win with great pitching and a mid-tier (likely ascending) lineup - what the Brewers have been doing since 2018 (I also seem to be alone in the camp that the pitching on the farm > the hitting in 2022 starting with Kilian)

 

I didn't mention Contreras because I don't have high hopes he'll be on the team on opening day 2023. If anything, he's the Shark of this current team, to painfully stretch the analogy. Suzuki, who I admittedly forgot about, has had about a month of star performance, a month of garbage performance, and 6 weeks of injuries. Jury is definitely still out.

 

I'm fine with Rodon. Maybe we hit the lottery with Steele/Thompson/Kilian, but that shouldn't keep you from spending the money you have on the best pitcher out there.

[We Got The Whole 9]

No Bryant?! Contreras has a .392 OBP and is on pace for ~6 f and rWAR! Suzuki’s also got the skills of a 5 WAR player

 

I also thought the Rodon mention would get more heat. You can win with great pitching and a mid-tier (likely ascending) lineup - what the Brewers have been doing since 2018 (I also seem to be alone in the camp that the pitching on the farm > the hitting in 2022 starting with Kilian)

Im not expecting him to be around next year

[Derwood]

It's unfortunate that the trade deadline has fallen into the predictable pattern of "good teams buy, bad teams sell." If the Cubs are serious about competing as early as next year, they should be buying, not selling. Trading of Contreras or Happ or whoever for lottery tickets or A-ball prospects signals the window not opening for several seasons

[Tim]

It's unfortunate that the trade deadline has fallen into the predictable pattern of "good teams buy, bad teams sell." If the Cubs are serious about competing as early as next year, they should be buying, not selling. Trading of Contreras or Happ or whoever for lottery tickets or A-ball prospects signals the window not opening for several seasons

No. It really doesn't.

[Bertz]

Happ I would be inclined to agree that the shape of the return would tell us something about the expectations for getting back to being competitive. If you deal Happ for someone who will spend most of next year in MLB, you can reasonably see that guy plus Happ's ~$10M salary doing as much or more for you than Happ himself. It's certainly riskier, but that's likely worth it for the additional team control. But if you deal Happ for a guy in A Ball, you're stuck trying to backfill a 3 WAR player with $10M, which is possible but not something you can reasonably expect to be able to pull off. Seems unlikely for a team truly trying for next year, unless it's some absolutely prodigious A Baller.

 

The rentals though, I actually expect mostly teenagers. The Cubs' 40 man roster is already crunched as it is, and the upper minors have enough guys to where the prospect spigot should open up in earnest around Memorial Day of next year. I'd love to get a Kilian-esque close to MLB SP prospect for one of Contreras/Robertson, but otherwise it's probably more prudent to focus on more talented/further proximity prospects. Both because this *should* be the last time selling for a while and because of simple roster management considerations.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The rentals though, I actually expect mostly teenagers. The Cubs' 40 man roster is already crunched as it is, and the upper minors have enough guys to where the prospect spigot should open up in earnest around Memorial Day of next year. I'd love to get a Kilian-esque close to MLB SP prospect for one of Contreras/Robertson, but otherwise it's probably more prudent to focus on more talented/further proximity prospects. Both because this *should* be the last time selling for a while and because of simple roster management considerations.

 

I'd tend to agree that we shouldn't expect multiple guys who need to be rostered from any single trade, be it Happ, Contreras, or Robertson. But if you think a guy is a 2023 contributor, the high minors are not so stacked with those that you need to shy away from them. Like if the Mets get aggressive about going after Contreras, I'm not gonna turn down Baty in the return because he'd need a 40 man spot. He'd be in line to start getting corner IF/DH at bats on a timeline not too dissimilar to Davis. But a second player in that hypothetical deal would be lower minors/higher upside instead of getting a relief arm or a hitter who won't be a first division starter.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Take it all into account along with the AL standings and teams' needs, and I feel like the expectation for the Cubs' deadline should be something like:

 

- Willson to the Mets, Giants, or Guardians

- Happ (if traded) to the Twins or Padres

- Robertson to the Twins or Jays

- Martin/Givens somewhere in the AL East

- Miley/Smyly to the Twins, Guardians, or Mariners

 

I was a little skeptical of the fit for the Padres with as well as Profar and Mazara have been playing. But Profar nearly broke his neck last night and will be out for an indeterminate period, and they are giving most of their DH playing time to Voit already, so there's possibly a decent window here. If you sent Happ(with his 2022 tab paid for) and took on Myers' money, I wonder how close that gets you to Campusano?

[Bertz]

Take it all into account along with the AL standings and teams' needs, and I feel like the expectation for the Cubs' deadline should be something like:

 

- Willson to the Mets, Giants, or Guardians

- Happ (if traded) to the Twins or Padres

- Robertson to the Twins or Jays

- Martin/Givens somewhere in the AL East

- Miley/Smyly to the Twins, Guardians, or Mariners

 

I was a little skeptical of the fit for the Padres with as well as Profar and Mazara have been playing. But Profar nearly broke his neck last night and will be out for an indeterminate period, and they are giving most of their DH playing time to Voit already, so there's possibly a decent window here. If you sent Happ(with his 2022 tab paid for) and took on Myers' money, I wonder how close that gets you to Campusano?

 

I'm noodling on a "what I'd do at the deadline" post and that exact deal is on there. Having catcher just totally (and quite satisfactorily!) taken care of heading into the winter would be a huge head start on team building. In fact combined with the positional versatility of Wisdom/Morel/Hoerner, Jed wouldn't be absolutely locked in on having to upgrade any specific position. He could just go get his favorite 2-3 bats and the defense will align around them.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Take it all into account along with the AL standings and teams' needs, and I feel like the expectation for the Cubs' deadline should be something like:

 

- Willson to the Mets, Giants, or Guardians

- Happ (if traded) to the Twins or Padres

- Robertson to the Twins or Jays

- Martin/Givens somewhere in the AL East

- Miley/Smyly to the Twins, Guardians, or Mariners

 

I was a little skeptical of the fit for the Padres with as well as Profar and Mazara have been playing. But Profar nearly broke his neck last night and will be out for an indeterminate period, and they are giving most of their DH playing time to Voit already, so there's possibly a decent window here. If you sent Happ(with his 2022 tab paid for) and took on Myers' money, I wonder how close that gets you to Campusano?

 

I'm noodling on a "what I'd do at the deadline" post and that exact deal is on there. Having catcher just totally (and quite satisfactorily!) taken care of heading into the winter would be a huge head start on team building. In fact combined with the positional versatility of Wisdom/Morel/Hoerner, Jed wouldn't be absolutely locked in on having to upgrade any specific position. He could just go get his favorite 2-3 bats and the defense will align around them.

 

The thing that keeps me from being too enthusiastic about this(aside from the 'dreamed up trades never happen' odds), is that I'm not really sure what the Padres then use their newfound savings on. Everything I can find says they may want multiple OF, which makes sense given that Grisham has been terrible and Mazara may be fool's gold. But the outfielders that you might get in addition to Happ are not super expensive: Benintendi, Mullins, Reynolds, Peralta, none of them are making 8 figures on the luxury tax. Or they may just decide to run it back with Mazara/Grisham, maybe flex Tatis to the OF for health and create a platoon between one of the LH OF and Kim/Abrams at SS. But I guess if you think you are right up at your absolute limit, then freeing up Myers does get you the freedom to buy more than one if at least one comes free(Happ in this case).

[muntjack]

I'm going down swinging with this unpopular opinion. We're just hoping these incoming bats are going to match the output of our two all stars? And then we're back to where we are now?

 

We have the DH, Willson doesn't have to catch everyday and when he does no one is getting better offensive production from that position. Happ is 4th in wOBA amongst NL OF.

 

How the hell are we replacing this, much less improving on it?

 

If we want to write off 2023, then I get it, I guess. If we're getting an ace back, I get it.

 

I just feel like we have some very good pieces that need to be supplemented, instead of starting over again. I'm done with the prospect fetishising. We sold off, reloaded the farm, now build something.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I'm going down swinging with this unpopular opinion. We're just hoping these incoming bats are going to match the output of our two all stars? And then we're back to where we are now?

 

We have the DH, Willson doesn't have to catch everyday and when he does no one is getting better offensive production from that position. Happ is 4th in wOBA amongst NL OF.

 

How the hell are we replacing this, much less improving on it?

 

If we want to write off 2023, then I get it, I guess. If we're getting an ace back, I get it.

 

I just feel like we have some very good pieces that need to be supplemented, instead of starting over again. I'm done with the prospect fetishising. We sold off, reloaded the farm, now build something.

 

If it were up to me, I would pay Willson. I think he's a strong bat regardless of position when he's not worn down by catching, and the DH now means you don't have to limit him to 400 PA to do so. The front office doesn't seem to agree, or Willson is standing in the way (e.g. despite public comments he isn't signing until the offseason, or his contract demands are beyond the pale). In that reality, I think it's likely they can get more for him at the deadline than what the draft comp would be. Or even if the return were similar to the draft pick, I'd rather it be closer to MLB to help with hastening the competitive window.

 

Happ I see as a 3 win LF who they have for 1 more season. The odds of him signing an extension at anything less than absurd prices are probably zero, imo. For his next contract he's not likely to be a 3 win LF, the club has lots of promising OF at many levels of the org already, and LF is one of the easiest spots on a roster to coax above average production without big spending or a slam dunk prospect. Given that outlook, if they can get a good return for Happ that provides something useful for 2023 and especially 2024(e.g. more Kilians/Madrigals, less Alcantaras/Canarios), then I think they can come out ahead. If they keep him, cool he's a good player and I don't think they should be afraid of QO'ing him after 2023(Hendricks + Heyward alone is 36 million coming off the 2023 payroll even before growing it from current/2023 levels) so they shouldn't be afraid of losing him for nothing. Though I am skeptical there's an extension for Happ that is a good idea that he'll also agree to, unless that comes with him as a FA in December 2023.

[muntjack]

If they are asking for fair contracts, I'd pay them. I'm all on board for more Kilians and if we can bring back young starters dominating the upper minors then I can understand moving them. I just don't want packages of former prospects, squinting-to-see-potential types and 17 yr olds in the DSL.

[Backtobanks]

I'm going down swinging with this unpopular opinion. We're just hoping these incoming bats are going to match the output of our two all stars? And then we're back to where we are now?

 

We have the DH, Willson doesn't have to catch everyday and when he does no one is getting better offensive production from that position. Happ is 4th in wOBA amongst NL OF.

 

How the hell are we replacing this, much less improving on it?

 

If we want to write off 2023, then I get it, I guess. If we're getting an ace back, I get it.

 

I just feel like we have some very good pieces that need to be supplemented, instead of starting over again. I'm done with the prospect fetishising. We sold off, reloaded the farm, now build something.

 

I totally agree. It's time to spend a little money and build a decent team for 2023, Trade a few of those very young prospects for Castillo, sign Willson to an extension, keep Happ, and suddenly you have a decent team. Castillo, Stroman, Hendricks, Thompson, Steele, Kilian, and Alzolay make for a very good and deep rotation. If Davis and Madrigal can be healthy enough to play, the lineup will be solid.

[pitchcs]

I'm going down swinging with this unpopular opinion. We're just hoping these incoming bats are going to match the output of our two all stars? And then we're back to where we are now?

 

We have the DH, Willson doesn't have to catch everyday and when he does no one is getting better offensive production from that position. Happ is 4th in wOBA amongst NL OF.

 

How the hell are we replacing this, much less improving on it?

 

If we want to write off 2023, then I get it, I guess. If we're getting an ace back, I get it.

 

I just feel like we have some very good pieces that need to be supplemented, instead of starting over again. I'm done with the prospect fetishising. We sold off, reloaded the farm, now build something.

 

I totally agree. It's time to spend a little money and build a decent team for 2023, Trade a few of those very young prospects for Castillo, sign Willson to an extension, keep Happ, and suddenly you have a decent team. Castillo, Stroman, Hendricks, Thompson, Steele, Kilian, and Alzolay make for a very good and deep rotation. If Davis and Madrigal can be healthy enough to play, the lineup will be solid.

 

 

??? That’s literally the same team as currently constructed, plus Castillo.

[muntjack]

Yeah I think going hard after Musgrove or Rodon is a must, along with finding a solution at 1st.

 

The stupid expanded playoffs have widened everyone's window. We don't have to strip it bare again and again. That was the optimal strategy for a minute but not anymore.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I should know better but rumors don't seem to exist until after the draft and maybe until the QO/int'l draft gets sorted, so I'm resorting to sharing Bowden's proposal from a 'one deal for each division leader' article.

 

Contreras to Houston for Colin Barber and Misael Tamarez.

 

Using Fangraphs, Barber is a 21 y/o OF(probably CF but maybe LF due to arm) and their 3rd best prospect (45 FV) who is torching high-A(.306/.414/.474). Tamarez is a 22 y/o SP and around their 20th best prospect (35+ FV) and seems like a tweener with good but not great stuff, mediocre command, and results to show for it in AA at the moment.

 

While that would be underwhelming(the comments on the article are basically "all of these are dumb for the contender except the Astros one"), it does raise the question of what the Astros think of their catching situation. They've always prioritized defense/framing over having elite offense at the position, but also have had decent bats to play regularly or at least platoon/timeshare to keep the production decent. This year Maldonado is getting the bulk of the time with a 62 wRC+, Castro(who last year was the offensive bright spot) is hurt and unplayable with the bat, and they just called up one of their Top 5 prospects in Corey Lee(but he has a AAA wOBA around .300). Scoring runs is a bigger problem than their pitching too, so if they are making an upgrade to try to make sure they stay clear of the Twins and go deep in the playoffs, this is as good a guess as any. They do have a headliner that would be more appropriate for Willson, SP Hunter Brown(50 FV per FG) is pitching well in AAA and has big stuff. The question is are they interested in upgrading catcher at all, and are they interested in giving up what is now their consensus top prospect in a diminished system to do so for a rental?

[Backtobanks]

I'm going down swinging with this unpopular opinion. We're just hoping these incoming bats are going to match the output of our two all stars? And then we're back to where we are now?

 

We have the DH, Willson doesn't have to catch everyday and when he does no one is getting better offensive production from that position. Happ is 4th in wOBA amongst NL OF.

 

How the hell are we replacing this, much less improving on it?

 

If we want to write off 2023, then I get it, I guess. If we're getting an ace back, I get it.

 

I just feel like we have some very good pieces that need to be supplemented, instead of starting over again. I'm done with the prospect fetishising. We sold off, reloaded the farm, now build something.

 

I totally agree. It's time to spend a little money and build a decent team for 2023, Trade a few of those very young prospects for Castillo, sign Willson to an extension, keep Happ, and suddenly you have a decent team. Castillo, Stroman, Hendricks, Thompson, Steele, Kilian, and Alzolay make for a very good and deep rotation. If Davis and Madrigal can be healthy enough to play, the lineup will be solid.

 

 

??? That’s literally the same team as currently constructed, plus Castillo.

 

It's the same except for a vastly improved rotation, a solid 2B and OF, which takes it from a 64-win team to an 85-win team. Also signing Musgrove would easily make us division favorites.

[chopsx9]

Blue Jays Happ

Yahoo story speculating on Jays Interest in Happ and others.