2022 Trade Deadline

[Bertz]

 

The teams at the largest inflection points on the win curve are going to be willing to pay the highest at the deadline. I tend to think that with the new playoff format, the most valuable wins are those that separate the #2 and #3/#4 seeds. In that sense, unfortunately the AL doesn't offer that perfect opportunity to sell, as the Yankees and Astros are locked into the top two seeds.

 

The best opportunity in the AL is with the Central teams. They are likely division or bust. We should all be the world's biggest Guardians fans over the next four weeks, as they have a monster farm and needs in the pen and behind the plate, plus if the Central is a real 3 team race that turns the screws even tighter.

 

The second tier of the AL East provides some opportunity, as whoever comes out on top will get HFA in the opening round. That said all three teams seem like strong bets to make the playoffs in some combination.

 

You also have to wonder about the Mariners. Not sure how much teams value that #6 seed, but the M's playoff drought being what it is likely makes it more valuable to them than any other franchise. Plus you've got the Dipoto factor.

 

I'm interested to see the NL article tomorrow. Depending on how tight the projections see things, that could be by far the best opportunity. The difference between 1st/2nd in the East could easily be the difference getting a bye as a #2 seed or going on the road to face the Padres in the wildcard round.

[chopsx9]

 

For sure, if Effross is the barrier in getting a Top 10 overall prospect back at the deadline(Moreno, Alvarez) then you do that very quickly. But teams don't operate like that when it comes to Top 10 prospects in this day and age, definitely not when the prospects are MLB ready. Mayyybe the Mets are reckless/desperate enough that Willson + Robertson + reliever gets you to Alvarez, but their pen hasn't really been a problem so you'd probably need cascading injury/performance collapses.

 

Effross isn't going to get you Moreno - Keegan might be a start??

 

Right, the idea is that pre-arb reliever is the 2nd or even 3rd piece in a deal that also involves a bigger player. Toronto doesn't have much use for Contreras or Happ which further makes it unlikely, but the Mets could desperately use Willson, so if a middle reliever is what gets you over the line to get an Alvarez you tell him to pack his bags. Thompson I would've said the same thing about a month ago, but now that's a little more nuanced a conversation.

Toronto is desperate for a LH hitter that's why the got Tapia in the Spring but have been underwhelmed - there've been whispers about them going after Benintendi or Adam Frazier. Contreras is much less likely but there have been concerns about the young catchers (outside of Jansen who has been injured) handling of the pitching staff some suggesting that's reason for the struggles of Kikuchi and Berrios. So if they decide they are all in this year I can squint and see them being interested in a Veteran catcher that plays everyday and they have no commitment to beyond this year. But the main point is if they are looking at the other 2 LHs they'd have to have some interest in Happ I'd think.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

 

Effross isn't going to get you Moreno - Keegan might be a start??

 

Right, the idea is that pre-arb reliever is the 2nd or even 3rd piece in a deal that also involves a bigger player. Toronto doesn't have much use for Contreras or Happ which further makes it unlikely, but the Mets could desperately use Willson, so if a middle reliever is what gets you over the line to get an Alvarez you tell him to pack his bags. Thompson I would've said the same thing about a month ago, but now that's a little more nuanced a conversation.

Toronto is desperate for a LH hitter that's why the got Tapia in the Spring but have been underwhelmed - there've been whispers about them going after Benintendi or Adam Frazier. Contreras is much less likely but there have been concerns about the young catchers (outside of Jansen who has been injured) handling of the pitching staff some suggesting that's reason for the struggles of Kikuchi and Berrios. So if they decide they are all in this year I can squint and see them being interested in a Veteran catcher that plays everyday and they have no commitment to beyond this year. But the main point is if they are looking at the other 2 LHs they'd have to have some interest in Happ I'd think.

 

If they went after him that'd be great, and I see why they might want a platoon-y role player type, but given Happ's positional limitation and the presence of Hernandez and Gurriel in the corner OF(not to mention Vladito taking DH time), I'm skeptical they'll go too hard for a top of the market type.

 

But that also is a good segue into one of the sneaky tricky things about trading Happ, his position. If he's only a LF like he's been for the Cubs this year, even though that is the best defensive and overall version of himself, it cuts down on his suitors significantly. The Yankees are a clean fit, but outside of that there isn't a team with a gaping hole at LF(or DH) so you have to hope someone gets really invested into upgrading, and paying the price to do so beyond this year.

[CubinNY]

I can't find the tweet, but twitter baseball seems to think Happ will be shopped. I really don't understand this organization's philosophy at all. They are behaving like a small market team. I would assume Happ has more value to the Cubs than they can get in any trade due to his positional limitations. I guess seller's market is the reason.

[Tim]

I can't find the tweet, but twitter baseball seems to think Happ will be shopped. I really don't understand this organization's philosophy at all. They are behaving like a small market team. I would assume Happ has more value to the Cubs than they can get in any trade due to his positional limitations. I guess seller's market is the reason.

If they can get value, I have no problem shopping Happ. LF is probably the easiest position on the field to replace. Heck, trade Happ for decent minor league assets, sign Conforto and let him use the rest of this season as adjustment after surgery. You've upgraded your OF and also acquired future assets.

[Bertz]

I can't find the tweet, but twitter baseball seems to think Happ will be shopped. I really don't understand this organization's philosophy at all. They are behaving like a small market team. I would assume Happ has more value to the Cubs than they can get in any trade due to his positional limitations. I guess seller's market is the reason.

 

I don't really want to shop Happ, but he's having a career year, it's an extreme sellers market, the system is loaded with outfielders, and LF is one of the easiest positions to fill on the FA market.

 

I think A) if a MLB ready piece is coming back and/or B) payroll next year will start with a 2, it's probably the right move.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I can't find the tweet, but twitter baseball seems to think Happ will be shopped. I really don't understand this organization's philosophy at all. They are behaving like a small market team. I would assume Happ has more value to the Cubs than they can get in any trade due to his positional limitations. I guess seller's market is the reason.

 

I think the positional limitations combined with this year's performance are the compelling reason to trade him. Happ has had his best defensive season partially because he's been exclusively a left fielder, even as injuries and roster shuffling have forced all number of absurdities(e.g. Wisdom in RF), Happ has played all but 12 innings this season in LF. That's also one of the easiest positions to replace above average production for, and the Cubs have several internal candidates who can help with this now(Ortega) and in the very near future(Velazquez, Davis).

 

The other element is this year's performance(he's on pace to hit 4 fWAR), which makes him more desirable in trade as a clear upgrade over a mediocre LF or platoon, but I would fall short of saying is the new norm you can expect of Happ. Combined with his age and remaining team control, you know that in 18 months you're going to have to make a decision on keeping an above average but not star level LF. Even big market teams aren't in a huge hurry to lock in that type of player, doubly so the type whose value is more predicated on offense/defense balance like Happ compared to a big bopper who can fake it in LF(Castellanos, Schwarber).

 

So that leaves you with the question, do you think this year is the new norm for Happ? If you do, then you should probably keep him. Given his work with the union he seems unlikely to take an extension, but you'd still gladly offer a QO for a 4 win OF and take the pick or get him for an additional year in 2024 when you hope to be competing for the playoffs. If you think he's more of the 2-3 win variety he has been for most of his career, then it probably* makes more sense to trade him this summer. Prices are higher at the deadline and teams will be signing up for 1.5 years of Happ, maximizing the value.

 

 

 

*I think you can make the argument that even if you think he's a 2-3 win player the big market Cubs should be fine with the risk of Happ accepting the QO, but ultimately that's a question of if you can get more than the QO pick for him at the deadline(almost certainly) and if 2-3 win Happ is especially crucial to the team's 2023 chances or 2024 chances at 18 million. Compared to the impact his return in trade could make on 2023/2024(and the aforementioned internal options cushioning his loss), imo it tips the scales to trading him.

[sneakypower]

we talk about how easy it is to replace reliable production on the FA market then Winter comes and that just ultimately turns into bargain garbage like Simmons, Sogard, Gomes etc or stuff we ruin like Stroman, Villar

[Transmogrified Tiger]

we talk about how easy it is to replace reliable production on the FA market then Winter comes and that just ultimately turns into bargain garbage like Simmons, Sogard, Gomes etc or stuff we ruin like Stroman, Villar

 

I mean I think we can all internalize that there are no guarantees, and that goes both ways. We've seen that very clearly this year with how the now-departed FA's have performed in their new orgs. Plus in the case of Happ himself his career has been very up and down(needing an Iowa stint after 2 years in MLB, his constantly evolving defensive home, etc) so the degree of confidence we can have about him individually isn't greater than normal either.

[Backtobanks]

Trading Happ along with Contreras, et. al. just pushes back the chance of having a seriously competitive team. We're putting a lot of faith in young players and prospects without much of a ML track record to man the 2023 roster. If we're talking about 2023 being another "developmental" year with hopes of being competitive in 2024, then go ahead and trade Happ. I just don't think making more holes on the ML team is the way to go unless Ricketts is going to spend like crazy and that doesn't seem likely.

[Cubswin11]

we talk about how easy it is to replace reliable production on the FA market then Winter comes and that just ultimately turns into bargain garbage like Simmons, Sogard, Gomes etc or stuff we ruin like Stroman, Villar

The one thing they’ve continually done well with this is building a good bullpen every offseason at least.

[sneakypower]

we talk about how easy it is to replace reliable production on the FA market then Winter comes and that just ultimately turns into bargain garbage like Simmons, Sogard, Gomes etc or stuff we ruin like Stroman, Villar

 

I mean I think we can all internalize that there are no guarantees, and that goes both ways. We've seen that very clearly this year with how the now-departed FA's have performed in their new orgs. Plus in the case of Happ himself his career has been very up and down(needing an Iowa stint after 2 years in MLB, his constantly evolving defensive home, etc) so the degree of confidence we can have about him individually isn't greater than normal either.

Rizzo & Schwarber are top 10 in HR, Contreras & Happ are top 20 in OBP, all were/are pretty obviously unwanted past their underpaid years

 

more waiver claims & trade flyers, next year's versions of Rivas, Frazier, Schwindel are probably going to tank the offense again to where competition is inconceivable and we'll think to ourselves, again, "hey if we put better players in these black holes then we could have something"

[sneakypower]

we talk about how easy it is to replace reliable production on the FA market then Winter comes and that just ultimately turns into bargain garbage like Simmons, Sogard, Gomes etc or stuff we ruin like Stroman, Villar

The one thing they’ve continually done well with this is building a good bullpen every offseason at least.

this seems like survivor's bias a bit, the bullpen ERA currently stands at 4.40 and was 4.63 last year when you exclude Kimbrel

 

we remember the guys who figured it out, but push Daniel Norris/Rex Brothers/Dan Winkler types out of our mind

[mul21]

we talk about how easy it is to replace reliable production on the FA market then Winter comes and that just ultimately turns into bargain garbage like Simmons, Sogard, Gomes etc or stuff we ruin like Stroman, Villar

 

I mean I think we can all internalize that there are no guarantees, and that goes both ways. We've seen that very clearly this year with how the now-departed FA's have performed in their new orgs. Plus in the case of Happ himself his career has been very up and down(needing an Iowa stint after 2 years in MLB, his constantly evolving defensive home, etc) so the degree of confidence we can have about him individually isn't greater than normal either.

Rizzo & Schwarber are top 10 in HR, Contreras & Happ are top 20 in OBP, all were/are pretty obviously unwanted past their underpaid years

 

more waiver claims & trade flyers, next year's versions of Rivas, Frazier, Schwindel are probably going to tank the offense again to where competition is inconceivable and we'll think to ourselves, again, "hey if we put better players in these black holes then we could have something"

 

Rizzo would have half the number of HRs if he wasn't playing at Yankee Stadium, the Cubs clearly had no idea how to fix Schwarber. The rest I agree with and really don't want to give up the birds in hand when we don't even know if there is a bush let alone if it has any birds in it.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

we talk about how easy it is to replace reliable production on the FA market then Winter comes and that just ultimately turns into bargain garbage like Simmons, Sogard, Gomes etc or stuff we ruin like Stroman, Villar

 

I mean I think we can all internalize that there are no guarantees, and that goes both ways. We've seen that very clearly this year with how the now-departed FA's have performed in their new orgs. Plus in the case of Happ himself his career has been very up and down(needing an Iowa stint after 2 years in MLB, his constantly evolving defensive home, etc) so the degree of confidence we can have about him individually isn't greater than normal either.

Rizzo & Schwarber are top 10 in HR, Contreras & Happ are top 20 in OBP, all were/are pretty obviously unwanted past their underpaid years

 

more waiver claims & trade flyers, next year's versions of Rivas, Frazier, Schwindel are probably going to tank the offense again to where competition is inconceivable and we'll think to ourselves, again, "hey if we put better players in these black holes then we could have something"

 

You're creating a false dichotomy that not wanting to extend 30+ FAs long guarantees means they're always replaced with waiver wire fodder. Part of the point of trading Happ now is that you can get a return that can impact 2023 and 2024 instead of waiting for his value to drop to the point where he can't bring that back or waiting on a comp draft pick, and the org is far more capable of creating a capable LF in house right now than they are at other places like 1B and SP. Yes, non-tendering Schwarber was a mistake(and probably a unique combination of pandemic circumstances), and sure Rizzo has hit some HR at Yankee Stadium but he wasn't going to be an important part of a competitive Cubs team no matter the spending. And the guys who you could argue might have been able to like Bryant and Baez have completely fallen on their faces.

[Bertz]

 

Followup from yesterday.

 

The system doesn't see the NL East quite as close as I've seen it elsewhere, though with deGrom's injury history the error bars on any Mets projection are going to be massive.

 

The NL West is seen as not especially close, while the Padres are not as locked into the #4 seed as I expected. I think a Padres hot streak and/or a Dodgers swoon would be the best possible thing for the Cubs, as it would directly make the NL West teams more motivated, and indirectly impact the NL East, by making the consolation for winning the division a 5 seed (on the road in the opening round) vs. a 4 seed (home-field)

 

Like the Mariners yesterday, I'm not sure how much on paper the #6 seed is worth, but you have to imagine it's worth more to the Phillies and Marlins than most. The Phillies haven't made the playoffs since the tail end of the Utley/Rollins era, and the Marlins only playoff appearance since '03 was the fakeass 2020 season.

 

Take it all into account along with the AL standings and teams' needs, and I feel like the expectation for the Cubs' deadline should be something like:

 

- Willson to the Mets, Giants, or Guardians

- Happ (if traded) to the Twins or Padres

- Robertson to the Twins or Jays

- Martin/Givens somewhere in the AL East

- Miley/Smyly to the Twins, Guardians, or Mariners

[sneakypower]

You're creating a false dichotomy that not wanting to extend 30+ FAs long guarantees means they're always replaced with waiver wire fodder.

that's literally what happened with Rizzo, Schwarber, Baez, Bryant; those spots went to Schwindel/Rivas, Ortega, Simmons, Wisdom

 

are you surprised every time Lucy pulls back the football?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Sharma with a few nuggets in his live chat today:

 

Hey Sahadev, what is the rumbling around the possible returns for the pieces the Cubs have? Any top 100 prospects potentially in return for Contreras or Happ? Hendricks? Thanks!

 

Sharma: Was going to make calls on this soon to confirm, but I think getting a top 100 for Contreras is doable. But also remember they supposedly got zero top 100 prospects at last year's deadline, but other front offices LOVED their returns. Now PCA, Alcántara and Kilian have all showed up on top 100 lists. And public lists aren't really the be all, end all. Just get quality talent, trust your pro scouts and player dev and you're good. That's what the best organizations do.

 

Do you get any feeling from the front office, that they have a master plan they cannot share publicly? Meaning they are taking the pain this year, increase the prospect inventory to make a bigger push in 23/24?

 

Sharma: I feel like they've shared a lot, but I guess my takeaway from it all is: 2023 could be a solid year depending on how the winter goes, 2024 absolutely should be a really good year and 2025 should be the start of a powerhouse org. I don't think they ever plan to sit out free agency again for extended periods. That doesn't mean getting the top guy or being in on him every winter, just occasionally. But you have to still fill gaps with free agency and trades. And the system of course. I'm very curious how much they add this winter. I think it'll be a decent amount, but there are so many factors at play including what the returns are this deadline and how players progress both in the minors and bigs over the final few months.

 

Willson and the FA pitchers seem just about 100% to get traded, but what is your sense about Happ, Hendricks, and Ortega? Do one or more of them go despite the team control?

 

Sharma: Answered on Ortega in another question(edit: he sees the appeal in keeping him but think it'd be nice to get him run on a contender), but short answer is I think they move him if they get a decent return. I think Hendricks is all but assured to stay with his latest injury. Happ is a wild card. If they get bowled over by an offer, I could see it. But I also think it'd be a shame to finally get the dude to this point, developed and consistent and then he's moved. It feels like a bad message to send to fans even if it might be the right move in the end.

 

When the Cubs trade Willson, then what is their plan for catcher in 2023 and beyond? With Amaya rehabbing, there doesn't seem to be anyone ready to go in the minors.

 

Sharma: A Higgins and Gomes tandem could be perfectly acceptable. Many contenders right now don't have mashers catching, they have guys who their pitchers trust and who are strong defenders. That's what Gomes and Higgins are. If they want more experience than Higgins, there are veterans who have slightly better bats than Gomes who are available this winter, but I like Higgins and know the coaching staff thinks he brings a lot of the intangibles and defense they want to the table.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

You're creating a false dichotomy that not wanting to extend 30+ FAs long guarantees means they're always replaced with waiver wire fodder.

that's literally what happened with Rizzo, Schwarber, Baez, Bryant; those spots went to Schwindel/Rivas, Ortega, Simmons, Wisdom

 

are you surprised every time Lucy pulls back the football?

 

Madrigal was the intended Baez replacement and they signed Pederson to backfill Schwarber, but that's beside the point. No, I don't expect them to treat every year the same depending on the roster and the talent in the broader organization, in the same way I expected greater aggression in roster-building in 2017 than I did in 2013. With the players they've added and developed in the last 18 months I expect them to put a greater priority on getting more certainty in what they expect with various positions. Doesn't mean that they'll blanket every roster spot above whatever criteria we're using(your list above ranges from minor league FA, to a bench guaranteed FA signing, to low-pedigree homegrown prospect), but I don't anticipate them using half the roster as opportunities to pan for gold.

[CyHawk_Cub]

I must be some weird outlier, and maybe I should just become an Angels fan, LOL, because I just like watching good players. Every discussion I'm in always revolves around competitive windows, and not "wasting money" in non-competitive years. There's lots of easy chair GM'ing that adores the chess match of building cost effective rosters.

 

I'd simply love to watch Trout and Ohtani do amazing things for the favorite team of my childhood, even if the team isn't in contention. Perhaps more accurately, I'd rather that than watch this parade of mediocrity, and let's-throw-horsefeathers-against-the-wall-and-see-what-sticks stuff.

 

In any event, I've finally been putting in a modicum of thought concerning what my fandom means to me.

[Cubswin11]

With the draft approaching I still really like the idea of signing Conforto after it passes, Moustakas or Castellanos type deal is probably the ballpark for it, then flip Happ for the best possible deal. Buying and selling at the same time, Conforto is better than Happ and you’re also getting something(s) that can help be it prospects or current MLB players.

[mul21]

With the draft approaching I still really like the idea of signing Conforto after it passes, Moustakas or Castellanos type deal is probably the ballpark for it, then flip Happ for the best possible deal. Buying and selling at the same time, Conforto is better than Happ and you’re also getting something(s) that can help be it prospects or current MLB players.

 

I've seen this suggestion a couple times now. Is the thought that a contender won't sign Conforto because of the unknowns regarding his health and since the Cubs are out of the playoff picture anyway it doesn't matter if he's really healthy or not this year so they can assume a higher level of risk?

[Bertz]

I must be some weird outlier, and maybe I should just become an Angels fan, LOL, because I just like watching good players. Every discussion I'm in always revolves around competitive windows, and not "wasting money" in non-competitive years. There's lots of easy chair GM'ing that adores the chess match of building cost effective rosters.

 

I'd simply love to watch Trout and Ohtani do amazing things for the favorite team of my childhood, even if the team isn't in contention. Perhaps more accurately, I'd rather that than watch this parade of mediocrity, and let's-throw-horsefeathers-against-the-wall-and-see-what-sticks stuff.

 

In any event, I've finally been putting in a modicum of thought concerning what my fandom means to me.

 

I trust you more than most to stick to your principles, but the amount of consternation in the Cubs fandom '17/'18/'19 (just purely for on-field stuff), shows that most people who say things like this are super full of it.

[Outshined_One]

I think my primary problem with this team is I am having trouble seeing the road back to a World Series title with this bunch and with the farm system. Don't get me wrong, I like the farm, I like Happ and Contreras, and I think this team has a lot of useful pieces on it. However, I just don't see it. I do not think there is an obvious prospect in the system at the moment that could be a perennial MVP candidate after getting called up. I don't see a nucleus of position players that could give this team a years-long championship window. The rotation also has its share of question marks, although I've been pleasantly surprised with Steele and Thompson so far. From my point of view, if the team kept Happ, extended Contreras, and made moves in the offseason, we could see a repeat of 2008/2009 over the next two seasons, but I also remember how ugly things got once that team went into decline.

 

I don't feel as strongly about keeping Happ and Contreras as some other posters do for those reasons. It's not to say that I want them gone at any price, but if they can bring back some high quality guys to increase the odds that the Cubs hit on multiple high level prospects in the next 2-4 years, then I'm in favor of it.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

With the draft approaching I still really like the idea of signing Conforto after it passes, Moustakas or Castellanos type deal is probably the ballpark for it, then flip Happ for the best possible deal. Buying and selling at the same time, Conforto is better than Happ and you’re also getting something(s) that can help be it prospects or current MLB players.

 

I've seen this suggestion a couple times now. Is the thought that a contender won't sign Conforto because of the unknowns regarding his health and since the Cubs are out of the playoff picture anyway it doesn't matter if he's really healthy or not this year so they can assume a higher level of risk?

 

It's been a minute since I checked on this, but I don't think Conforto is set to be able to play in any games until around September. A contender would be taking a really big risk giving him playing time not knowing how quickly he's bounced back from an injury/surgery that impacts play as much as the shoulder.