Blackhawks rebuild 2.0

[CubinNY]

I'm not much of a hockey fan, but as a sports fan, anything they can do to disincentivize tanking would be a good thing. I think a random lottery system would help in baseball. In a sport with a true salary cap, owners should be fined according to some formula based on their record and payroll by the league but it doesn't go against cap space. The fines should go to playoff teams. 

There is no reason for a team not to try and put their best product forward. In baseball, if it's impossible for teams like Miami, Cinnciatti, Pittsburgh, and Oakland to compete, the owners should be made to sell. 

[Derwood]

The odds of getting picks in the NHL lottery are pretty messed up, though. Why does the 2nd worst team (Jackets) have a far better chance of getting the 4th overall pick than getting the 2nd overall pick? What kind of lousy system is this?

[Tim]

26 minutes ago, Derwood said:

The odds of getting picks in the NHL lottery are pretty messed up, though. Why does the 2nd worst team (Jackets) have a far better chance of getting the 4th overall pick than getting the 2nd overall pick? What kind of lousy system is this?

Are you just exasperated with it or looking for the actual explanation? Can't tell from the post.

[Derwood]

2 hours ago, Tim said:

Are you just exasperated with it or looking for the actual explanation? Can't tell from the post.

 

Both I understand lowering the odds of getting the #1 overall pick if you don't finish dead last, but why make the #1 and #2 teams have a far greater odds of picking 3-5 instead of 1 or 2? Seems like it's being pushed too far

[Tim]

Just now, Derwood said:

 

Both I understand lowering the odds of getting the #1 overall pick if you don't finish dead last, but why make the #1 and #2 teams have a far greater odds of picking 3-5 instead of 1 or 2? Seems like it's being pushed too far

That's just automatically going to happen when you flatten the odds that much and only have a lottery for the top three spots

[Derwood]

24 minutes ago, Tim said:

That's just automatically going to happen when you flatten the odds that much and only have a lottery for the top three spots

Then it’s a broken system

[minnesotacubsfan]

14 minutes ago, Derwood said:

Then it’s a broken system

I agree, it sucks

[Derwood]

It's silly. The Blackhawks were 3rd worst, but have the worst odds to pick 3rd? 

#1 - 11.5%

#2 - 11.2%

#3 - 7.8%

#4 - 39.7%

#5 - 29.8%

 

Whoever designed this system was drunk

[Brian707]

10 hours ago, Derwood said:

It's silly. The Blackhawks were 3rd worst, but have the worst odds to pick 3rd? 

#1 - 11.5%

#2 - 11.2%

#3 - 7.8%

#4 - 39.7%

#5 - 29.8%

 

Whoever designed this system was drunk

Look at the big picture they had the 3rd worst record but 3rd best chance at a top 3 pick.  I agree the system sucks but at least they have a shot at Bedard

[UMFan83]

12 hours ago, Derwood said:

It's silly. The Blackhawks were 3rd worst, but have the worst odds to pick 3rd? 

#1 - 11.5%

#2 - 11.2%

#3 - 7.8%

#4 - 39.7%

#5 - 29.8%

 

Whoever designed this system was drunk

Well at the very least it makes sense that the 4th and 5th spots would be the highest because thats what happens when teams jump you.  If one team jumps you and gets into the lottery, you're 4th.  If 2 teams jump you, you're 5th.  I don't quite understand why the Hawks couldn't fall to 6th.  If none of the bottom 3 teams win a lottery spot, shouldn't that make the Hawks 6th after the Blue Jackets at 5 and Ducks at 4?  Based on the posted odds it looks like they guarantee the worst team no worse than 3rd (do they just not hold the drawing for the 3rd pick in this situation?)

[Derwood]

26 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

Well at the very least it makes sense that the 4th and 5th spots would be the highest because thats what happens when teams jump you.  If one team jumps you and gets into the lottery, you're 4th.  If 2 teams jump you, you're 5th.  I don't quite understand why the Hawks couldn't fall to 6th.  If none of the bottom 3 teams win a lottery spot, shouldn't that make the Hawks 6th after the Blue Jackets at 5 and Ducks at 4?  Based on the posted odds it looks like they guarantee the worst team no worse than 3rd (do they just not hold the drawing for the 3rd pick in this situation?)

[squally1313]

33 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

Well at the very least it makes sense that the 4th and 5th spots would be the highest because thats what happens when teams jump you.  If one team jumps you and gets into the lottery, you're 4th.  If 2 teams jump you, you're 5th.  I don't quite understand why the Hawks couldn't fall to 6th.  If none of the bottom 3 teams win a lottery spot, shouldn't that make the Hawks 6th after the Blue Jackets at 5 and Ducks at 4?  Based on the posted odds it looks like they guarantee the worst team no worse than 3rd (do they just not hold the drawing for the 3rd pick in this situation?)

Probably figured it out from the above, but the Ducks can't fall out of the top 3. 

[Tim]

1 hour ago, squally1313 said:

Probably figured it out from the above, but the Ducks can't fall out of the top 3. 

Teams aren't allowed to move up more that 10 slots

[WrigleyField 22]

32 minutes ago, Tim said:

Teams aren't allowed to move up more that 10 slots

That actually sounds like a smart way to do it... 

[jersey cubs fan]

21 minutes ago, WrigleyField 22 said:

That actually sounds like a smart way to do it... 

I’d rather give the best lottery teams a shot at it. Flatten the odds for the worst teams to get #1, anybody that doesn’t make playoffs can get #1, but you can’t fall more than 3 spots. 

[jersey cubs fan]

https://www.instagram.com/p/CrO9IrpO2PF/?igshid=YmMyMTA2M2Y=

 

That apartment is decorated exactly like one you’d expect a player with one foot out the door to be decorated 

Edited April 19, 2023 by jersey cubs fan

[17 Seconds]

who the horsefeathers is reese johnson

Edited April 19, 2023 by 17 Seconds

[jersey cubs fan]

49 minutes ago, 17 Seconds said:

who the horsefeathers is reese johnson

The one that isn’t Tyler 

[Hairyducked Idiot]

On 4/18/2023 at 8:30 AM, UMFan83 said:

Well at the very least it makes sense that the 4th and 5th spots would be the highest because thats what happens when teams jump you.  If one team jumps you and gets into the lottery, you're 4th.  If 2 teams jump you, you're 5th.  I don't quite understand why the Hawks couldn't fall to 6th.  If none of the bottom 3 teams win a lottery spot, shouldn't that make the Hawks 6th after the Blue Jackets at 5 and Ducks at 4?  Based on the posted odds it looks like they guarantee the worst team no worse than 3rd (do they just not hold the drawing for the 3rd pick in this situation?)

There's no drawing for the third pick, just the first two 

[UMFan83]

1 minute ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

There's no drawing for the third pick, just the first two 

Well there you go then

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Draft systems are like playoff systems.  There's no single perfect way to do them because they're trying to balance multiple interests. Every time to tweak it to help one angle, people will say "but what about the other angle, that doesn't make sense" so they tweak it again, and it gets all weird and kludgy.

They have a lottery because while the general idea of tanking/rebuilding is fine, you want to avoid situations where teams have an extremely obvious, strong incentives to lose specific games you're selling tickets for.  If there was no lottery, you'd have teams shooting into their own net by on opening night if there was a Gretzky level prospect.

Basically every change since then has been the result of something happening and a bunch of people saying "that feels unfair!" so they tweak the rules/percentages.  They only draw for top two instead of top three because the Red Wings fell from 1st to 4th a few years ago and Yzerman pitched a fit.  You can only move up a limited number of spots because the Flyers jumped from 13th to 2nd in 2017 and people said that felt unfair.

[jersey cubs fan]

14 minutes ago, Hairyducked Idiot said:

Draft systems are like playoff systems.  There's no single perfect way to do them because they're trying to balance multiple interests. Every time to tweak it to help one angle, people will say "but what about the other angle, that doesn't make sense" so they tweak it again, and it gets all weird and kludgy.

They have a lottery because while the general idea of tanking/rebuilding is fine, you want to avoid situations where teams have an extremely obvious, strong incentives to lose specific games you're selling tickets for.  If there was no lottery, you'd have teams shooting into their own net by on opening night if there was a Gretzky level prospect.

Basically every change since then has been the result of something happening and a bunch of people saying "that feels unfair!" so they tweak the rules/percentages.  They only draw for top two instead of top three because the Red Wings fell from 1st to 4th a few years ago and Yzerman pitched a fit.  You can only move up a limited number of spots because the Flyers jumped from 13th to 2nd in 2017 and people said that felt unfair.

The general idea of tanking is not fine. 

[Derwood]

So interestingly, the odds for Anaheim to get the #1 pick are actually better than their odds to win the lottery