4/26 Cubs (Stroman) @ Braves (Fried) 6:20 Marquee

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The Cubs even with their funk in the last few days are 17th in HR and 13th in IsoP, to say nothing of being 5th in runs and 3rd in wRC+. It's less than 20 games so even if they were crushing HR left and right it wouldn't be predictive, and there's several lineup/roster spots I'd like to change the players and/or usage, but they aren't at the other end of the spectrum. It just feels that way because offense and HR are down due to weather, ball, and expanded rosters. Case in point, Schwarber, Baez, Bryant, and Correa are all hitting worse than Heyward at the moment.

[Bertz]

The Cubs even with their funk in the last few days are 17th in HR and 13th in IsoP, to say nothing of being 5th in runs and 3rd in wRC+. It's less than 20 games so even if they were crushing HR left and right it wouldn't be predictive, and there's several lineup/roster spots I'd like to change the players and/or usage, but they aren't at the other end of the spectrum. It just feels that way because offense and HR are down due to weather, ball, and expanded rosters. Case in point, Schwarber, Baez, Bryant, and Correa are all hitting worse than Heyward at the moment.

 

They've also scored 4+ runs in 10/17 games, and have yet to be shut out. Consistency we would have absolutely killed for essentially any year post 2016.

[squally1313]

The Cubs even with their funk in the last few days are 17th in HR and 13th in IsoP, to say nothing of being 5th in runs and 3rd in wRC+. It's less than 20 games so even if they were crushing HR left and right it wouldn't be predictive, and there's several lineup/roster spots I'd like to change the players and/or usage, but they aren't at the other end of the spectrum. It just feels that way because offense and HR are down due to weather, ball, and expanded rosters. Case in point, Schwarber, Baez, Bryant, and Correa are all hitting worse than Heyward at the moment.

 

They've also scored 4+ runs in 10/17 games, and have yet to be shut out. Consistency we would have absolutely killed for essentially any year post 2016.

7-10 with ten games against the pirates and Rockies

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

The Cubs even with their funk in the last few days are 17th in HR and 13th in IsoP, to say nothing of being 5th in runs and 3rd in wRC+. It's less than 20 games so even if they were crushing HR left and right it wouldn't be predictive, and there's several lineup/roster spots I'd like to change the players and/or usage, but they aren't at the other end of the spectrum. It just feels that way because offense and HR are down due to weather, ball, and expanded rosters. Case in point, Schwarber, Baez, Bryant, and Correa are all hitting worse than Heyward at the moment.

 

They've also scored 4+ runs in 10/17 games, and have yet to be shut out. Consistency we would have absolutely killed for essentially any year post 2016.

Why should we care about consistency?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The Cubs even with their funk in the last few days are 17th in HR and 13th in IsoP, to say nothing of being 5th in runs and 3rd in wRC+. It's less than 20 games so even if they were crushing HR left and right it wouldn't be predictive, and there's several lineup/roster spots I'd like to change the players and/or usage, but they aren't at the other end of the spectrum. It just feels that way because offense and HR are down due to weather, ball, and expanded rosters. Case in point, Schwarber, Baez, Bryant, and Correa are all hitting worse than Heyward at the moment.

 

They've also scored 4+ runs in 10/17 games, and have yet to be shut out. Consistency we would have absolutely killed for essentially any year post 2016.

7-10 with ten games against the pirates and Rockies

 

Disappointing for sure, even if the other 7 were quite strong opponents. If I’m looking for reasons explaining that disappointment, I’d go to SP(26th in starter ERA), randomness(everyone has multiple 7-10 spells in a season), and luck(2-5 in 1 run games) before I got to the offense or it’s specific slappiness.

[Bertz]

 

They've also scored 4+ runs in 10/17 games, and have yet to be shut out. Consistency we would have absolutely killed for essentially any year post 2016.

7-10 with ten games against the pirates and Rockies

 

Disappointing for sure, even if the other 7 were quite strong opponents. If I’m looking for reasons explaining that disappointment, I’d go to SP(26th in starter ERA), randomness(everyone has multiple 7-10 spells in a season), and luck(2-5 in 1 run games) before I got to the offense or it’s specific slappiness.

 

Imagine, I'm not even going to say watching games, but even just checking box scores and thinking the problem with this team thus far is anything other than starting pitching.

 

Why should we care about consistency?

 

The problem with the offense from 2017-2021 was the inconsistency. Sharma had a couple of good article on it in ~May of last year, but for offenses in the top 10-15 in the league, the Cubs had a higher proportion of their games end with 0, 1, or 2 runs. Each of the first four or five runs is significantly more likely to be a game winner than like the 10th, so it it's likely this boom/bust cycle was a big part of the team's underperformance and hot/cold nature. Look no further than what this team did against the Pirates for a good example of what this can look like.

[squally1313]

 

They've also scored 4+ runs in 10/17 games, and have yet to be shut out. Consistency we would have absolutely killed for essentially any year post 2016.

7-10 with ten games against the pirates and Rockies

 

Disappointing for sure, even if the other 7 were quite strong opponents. If I’m looking for reasons explaining that disappointment, I’d go to SP(26th in starter ERA), randomness(everyone has multiple 7-10 spells in a season), and luck(2-5 in 1 run games) before I got to the offense or it’s specific slappiness.

 

All the games count, obviously, but I feel like a main complaint the last few years, right or wrong, was that we’d bunch together a couple good games and then the offense would go ice cold (which probably isn’t a real thing). So it’s funny to me that the offensive stats look good this year based very heavily on the biggest shutout in team history, where based on my rough math we had 19 singles and 4 doubles on 47 balls put in play (vs something like yesterday, where we went 3/24). Basically it seems to me like we traded HR/FB luck for BABIP luck, and people kept saying it was some sort of positive development. I know our HR total is still middle of the pack, mostly because Seiya rocks, but think we are going to see a ton of games like yesterday and chalk them up to ‘bad luck’ while last year the blame would fall more squarely on the hitters.

[squally1313]

7-10 with ten games against the pirates and Rockies

 

Disappointing for sure, even if the other 7 were quite strong opponents. If I’m looking for reasons explaining that disappointment, I’d go to SP(26th in starter ERA), randomness(everyone has multiple 7-10 spells in a season), and luck(2-5 in 1 run games) before I got to the offense or it’s specific slappiness.

 

Imagine, I'm not even going to say watching games, but even just checking box scores and thinking the problem with this team thus far is anything other than starting pitching.

 

Why should we care about consistency?

 

The problem with the offense from 2017-2021 was the inconsistency. Sharma had a couple of good article on it in ~May of last year, but for offenses in the top 10-15 in the league, the Cubs had a higher proportion of their games end with 0, 1, or 2 runs. Each of the first four or five runs is significantly more likely to be a game winner than like the 10th, so it it's likely this boom/bust cycle was a big part of the team's underperformance and hot/cold nature. Look no further than what this team did against the Pirates for a good example of what this can look like.

 

Was that proportion something like 5/17ths, out of curiosity? We have the highest babip in the league, by 12 points, but we’re 12th in ISO. 27th in LD%, first, comfortably in GB%. This is the 2022 cubs offense in their ‘boom’/‘hot’ cycle.

[CubinNY]

For me, the theme here is that you can't make a full team out of spare parts. They have maybe four everyday players on the team and a bunch of hope in the unseen. They have half a starting lineup Edited April 27, 2022 by CubinNY

[jersey cubs fan]

I think the biggest takeaway thus far is the cubs aren’t trying to win this year and so far they have succeeded.

[Bertz]

 

Disappointing for sure, even if the other 7 were quite strong opponents. If I’m looking for reasons explaining that disappointment, I’d go to SP(26th in starter ERA), randomness(everyone has multiple 7-10 spells in a season), and luck(2-5 in 1 run games) before I got to the offense or it’s specific slappiness.

 

Imagine, I'm not even going to say watching games, but even just checking box scores and thinking the problem with this team thus far is anything other than starting pitching.

 

Why should we care about consistency?

 

The problem with the offense from 2017-2021 was the inconsistency. Sharma had a couple of good article on it in ~May of last year, but for offenses in the top 10-15 in the league, the Cubs had a higher proportion of their games end with 0, 1, or 2 runs. Each of the first four or five runs is significantly more likely to be a game winner than like the 10th, so it it's likely this boom/bust cycle was a big part of the team's underperformance and hot/cold nature. Look no further than what this team did against the Pirates for a good example of what this can look like.

 

Was that proportion something like 5/17ths, out of curiosity? We have the highest babip in the league, by 12 points, but we’re 12th in ISO. 27th in LD%, first, comfortably in GB%. This is the 2022 cubs offense in their ‘boom’/‘hot’ cycle.

 

Okay, if you normalize their BABIP to a standard .300. they lose 10 hits. That's 7-8 runs, enough to drop them from tied for 3rd in the league in runs per game all the way down to about 7th. Lucky doesn't always mean outright bad.

 

They've also done this while a third of their starting pitching slate has been legitimate stars (the three Milwaukee guys, McLanahan with the Rays, Fried last night, Marquez with the Rockies). So while you can fairly point to the games against the Pirates and the Rockies as a ding, I don't think a granular look at strength of schedule (for the offense at least) actually debits them all that much.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Also, if we're talking about the bigger picture with roster construction or forward-facing expectations, I want to reinforce that 17 games just doesn't mean much, especially since the team isn't at some extreme like being 29th in runs or 2nd in IsoP, whatever. As a founding member of the "Schwindel is LaHair with a goofier smile" brigade, I've had to intentionally avoid making much in the way of declarations of his uselessness, because we're talking about less than 3 weeks of games, and coming off a lockout and abbreviated spring training. There isn't a magic line where all of a sudden with one more game everything becomes meaningful, but especially at the macro level I think you'd need some more extreme results(e.g. the Reds) before you claim the season thus far is the new norm, otherwise it's the type of conversation that's best waiting til Memorial day. This applies to the good stuff(Seiya, Thompson, the veteran relievers) too.

[squally1313]

Yeah I got a little bogged down with the details here, and you're right it's early (but there are a lot of bad trends!). The original point was frustration at all the arguments that wanted to, in my opinion, essentially trade HR/FB roulette for BABIP roulette, like it was somehow better. From a pure enjoyment of the game, I would love a lineup of line drive doubles hitters. But we seemed to specifically seek out just contact, and you just aren't going to be able to get enough BABIP luck to overcome a mediocre at best rotation.

 

But ultimately goony's point was largely right. Shouldn't get too worked up over a team projected to win 70something games going 7-10 to start the year. I'm just not going to get too excited about a Hoerner, or when Madrigal's luck spikes here inevitably, unless they can prove close to a full year of high level hard, consistent contact.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The original point was frustration at all the arguments that wanted to, in my opinion, essentially trade HR/FB roulette for BABIP roulette, like it was somehow better. From a pure enjoyment of the game, I would love a lineup of line drive doubles hitters. But we seemed to specifically seek out just contact, and you just aren't going to be able to get enough BABIP luck to overcome a mediocre at best rotation.

 

I am curious about how that progresses, because I think there's a lot of potential influences and I'm not sure which one is the dominant factor yet. The ball is clearly suppressing power in the early going on top of it being April after an abbreviated spring, which all could play a part and potentially change as the season continues. The personnel is definitely different, and for as much as I'm optimistic on the overall value of Hoerner and Madrigal, they aren't going to start putting a bunch of balls in the seats even on a hot streak. Then there's some guys hitting for less power than they have in the past(Happ, Villar, Ortega, Frazier, Schwindel), which could be those environmental factors, could be representative of a coaching overcorrection, or could be an individual competence issue.