Bears off-season thread 2022

[raw]

 

And why didn't Eberflus challenge the no catch before halftime? I think that was when it was.

 

 

Said they basically just missed it.

 

“A couple coaches on the sideline thought it bounced on the ground,” Eberflus said. We got one good look upstairs, and that was it. We didn’t have a second look at it, so we just decided to let it go.”

 

It’s an understandable explanation, except the Bears took too long to make the call. They were assessed a delay of game penalty, which in turn put Trenton Gill out of range to pin the Seahawks inside their 20-yard line. Once the Bears committed the delay of game, they also squandered their chance to challenge.

 

There were just over 10 minutes left in the second quarter at the time, so it wasn’t necessarily a moment where a coach needed to be precious about his timeouts if Eberflus wanted to give his replay team more time to find another angle. With another challenge to use, even if this one failed, it seemed a good time to drop the red flag if Eberflus didn’t want to risk burning two timeouts in one play.

 

“In real time, in a real game, maybe I would’ve thrown (the challenge flag),” Eberflus said. “But we didn’t have the second look.”

Same problem, different people. Don't the Bears have a guy for this?

 

That guy probably sucks. I assume it would be a different guy, but I'm pretty sure the guy Nagy had on reviews was terrible.

[UMFan83]

Roquan’s back. Just don’t know why yet

 

[Bertz]

Roquan’s back. Just don’t know why yet

 

 

Apparently he's just gonna play. No extension or anything?

 

[UMFan83]

Roquan’s back. Just don’t know why yet

 

 

Apparently he's just gonna play. No extension or anything?

 

 

I'm guessing Poles set a deadline where if he didn't return to practice they would start fining him (or possibly even fining him for past missed practices). His trade demand probably stands but Poles doesn't have to fulfill it.

 

Or maybe Smith reached some agreement where the Bears would try to trade him around the deadline and/or agreed to not franchise him after the year. Who knows. Weird situation all around. If the Bears are going to suck this year and he can be a UFA (unless franchised), I'd rather just trade him then make him play a meaningless season and walk.

[raw]

Yeah, my issue is a repeat of last year with Robinson. Robinson was unhappy with contract and we saw him quitting on routes, quitting on blocks, take like 4 weeks to return from a hamstring injury that was day-to-day (granted, can't proved he dogged it). Don't see too many players hold out/in for a new contract, publicly ask for a trade, not get either, and still play 100% of the games at 100% of his abilities.

 

Sure there have been players who have held out before, come back without being paid and play well. There have been players ask for a trade, get paid and then play well. But this isn't a franchise tag thing. Smith isn't getting paid the average of the top 5 at his position. He's getting 9M when his peers are getting more than double that. These things don't typically end well.

[UMFan83]

Yeah, my issue is a repeat of last year with Robinson. Robinson was unhappy with contract and we saw him quitting on routes, quitting on blocks, take like 4 weeks to return from a hamstring injury that was day-to-day (granted, can't proved he dogged it). Don't see too many players hold out/in for a new contract, publicly ask for a trade, not get either, and still play 100% of the games at 100% of his abilities.

 

Sure there have been players who have held out before, come back without being paid and play well. There have been players ask for a trade, get paid and then play well. But this isn't a franchise tag thing. Smith isn't getting paid the average of the top 5 at his position. He's getting 9M when his peers are getting more than double that. These things don't typically end well.

 

Maybe I’ve read too many “a league source says” stories but the perception out there seems to be that Smith is a very good, not great player at a non-premium position. It would be beneficial for him to prove that he is great going into FA or a franchise tag. not saying that will happen with a guy who is said to have maturity issues and is operating without the guidance of an agent but it makes all the sense in the world for him to ball out.

[raw]

Yeah, my issue is a repeat of last year with Robinson. Robinson was unhappy with contract and we saw him quitting on routes, quitting on blocks, take like 4 weeks to return from a hamstring injury that was day-to-day (granted, can't proved he dogged it). Don't see too many players hold out/in for a new contract, publicly ask for a trade, not get either, and still play 100% of the games at 100% of his abilities.

 

Sure there have been players who have held out before, come back without being paid and play well. There have been players ask for a trade, get paid and then play well. But this isn't a franchise tag thing. Smith isn't getting paid the average of the top 5 at his position. He's getting 9M when his peers are getting more than double that. These things don't typically end well.

 

Maybe I’ve read too many “a league source says” stories but the perception out there seems to be that Smith is a very good, not great player at a non-premium position. It would be beneficial for him to prove that he is great going into FA or a franchise tag. not saying that will happen with a guy who is said to have maturity issues and is operating without the guidance of an agent but it makes all the sense in the world for him to ball out.

 

It does, and I'm sure when he's in there, he'll play well. But this is a guy that hasn't always made the best decisions. He had the mysterious absence for a game a few years ago. He's now held out on 2 different occasions. I just worry about what happens Week 10 when this team is 3-6 and he has an annoyance with an ankle or something. It's probably not going to be something that can be proven, if he's smart about it (not a guarantee). I just don't see a good ending. I don't see him playing great and then the Bears changing their offer to something he'd agree too. I don't see him caving on taking the Bears offer. Most likely scenario is he walks or is tagged after the season, which starts this process all over again. And if he walks, it'll likely be for nothing as the Bears will certainly spend money bringing in guys to wipe his comp pick away.

[minnesotacubsfan]

Yeah, my issue is a repeat of last year with Robinson. Robinson was unhappy with contract and we saw him quitting on routes, quitting on blocks, take like 4 weeks to return from a hamstring injury that was day-to-day (granted, can't proved he dogged it). Don't see too many players hold out/in for a new contract, publicly ask for a trade, not get either, and still play 100% of the games at 100% of his abilities.

 

Sure there have been players who have held out before, come back without being paid and play well. There have been players ask for a trade, get paid and then play well. But this isn't a franchise tag thing. Smith isn't getting paid the average of the top 5 at his position. He's getting 9M when his peers are getting more than double that. These things don't typically end well.

 

Maybe I’ve read too many “a league source says” stories but the perception out there seems to be that Smith is a very good, not great player at a non-premium position. It would be beneficial for him to prove that he is great going into FA or a franchise tag. not saying that will happen with a guy who is said to have maturity issues and is operating without the guidance of an agent but it makes all the sense in the world for him to ball out.

 

It does, and I'm sure when he's in there, he'll play well. But this is a guy that hasn't always made the best decisions. He had the mysterious absence for a game a few years ago. He's now held out on 2 different occasions. I just worry about what happens Week 10 when this team is 3-6 and he has an annoyance with an ankle or something. It's probably not going to be something that can be proven, if he's smart about it (not a guarantee). I just don't see a good ending. I don't see him playing great and then the Bears changing their offer to something he'd agree too. I don't see him caving on taking the Bears offer. Most likely scenario is he walks or is tagged after the season, which starts this process all over again. And if he walks, it'll likely be for nothing as the Bears will certainly spend money bringing in guys to wipe his comp pick away.

 

I usually find that "betting on myself" to be best played by an NFL player via that player hiring a competent agent

[JeffH]

https://www.windycitygridiron.com/2022/8/23/23317569/chicago-bears-roster-cut-down-tracker-practice-squad-rules-injured-reserve-alexander-jean-delance

 

The Bears have officially released offensive tackle Julién Davenport, fullback Jake Bargas, defensive tackle LaCale London, corner BoPete Keyes, and receiver Dazz Newsome, and they are now at the mandated 80-man limit.

[BigbadB]

 

The secondary is going to be a lot better. Mack only played in 7 games last year and Hicks played in 9. That's a loss but is being overstated as it relates to last year's defense. Eberflus's defenses have shown to perform better than their talent would imply (yes, I know that's very scientific). The "everyone hustle to the ball" thing is going to matter.

 

I don't really care to put much effort into arguing about it, but if you want to wager on a top 10 DVOA finish, gentleman's or otherwise, I'd be happy to oblige :dontknow:

top 10?

$100

 

Lol it just occurred to you how this is such a win win for you because if you lose, it's so worth $100 to make 17 Sundays much more enjoyable.

 

I should do the emotional hedge more often.

 

I like the chances of your bet. I think there are some hungry guys on this defense and the new coaching staff will inspire them to play well.

[Old Style]

Hunger and inspiration isn't what makes a top 10 defense. Talent does.

[Bertz]

I believe the football sabermetric consensus at the moment is that defensively the guys in the secondary matter a good deal more than the guys up front. Feels like comparing the '21/'22 Bears will be a good test case for that.

[UMFan83]

I believe the football sabermetric consensus at the moment is that defensively the guys in the secondary matter a good deal more than the guys up front. Feels like comparing the '21/'22 Bears will be a good test case for that.

 

that's super interesting. Do you have any articles that talk about this? I've always been a QB and lines (O and D) guy in terms of constructing a football team.

[CubinNY]

I believe the football sabermetric consensus at the moment is that defensively the guys in the secondary matter a good deal more than the guys up front. Feels like comparing the '21/'22 Bears will be a good test case for that.

 

that's super interesting. Do you have any articles that talk about this? I've always been a QB and lines (O and D) guy in terms of constructing a football team.

I don't know how that would be provable in any data-based way but it sort of makes sense when so much of the offense is based on passing. Good coverage leads to sacks and incomplete passes.

[Bertz]

I believe the football sabermetric consensus at the moment is that defensively the guys in the secondary matter a good deal more than the guys up front. Feels like comparing the '21/'22 Bears will be a good test case for that.

 

that's super interesting. Do you have any articles that talk about this? I've always been a QB and lines (O and D) guy in terms of constructing a football team.

 

Here's a good one from PFF:

 

https://www.pff.com/news/pro-pff-data-study-coverage-vs-pass-rush

 

Second, the game has changed in substantial ways since many of us started viewing it. During the PFF era (2006-present) alone, first-down passes have increased from 47% of plays to almost 52% of plays. Time to throw and play- action percentages have gone down and up during this stretch, respectively, in many ways mitigating the effect that the pass rush can have on an offense. Passing plays are no longer just third-and-long, mano y mano battles between pass rushers and the offensive linemen trying to block them long enough for the quarterback to execute a deep drop and a 10-plus-yard completion.

 

PFF coverage grades both explain and predict defensive success better than pass rush, but they come at the expense of year-to-year stability at both the player and team level. Next year’s Aaron Donald is likely to be Aaron Donald, but if a team is going to have a ton of success as a result of strong play by their defense, they will likely need to have next year’s Stephon Gilmore on their team (who is probably not going to be Stephon Gilmore himself). As I said on Kevin Cole’s podcast a few weeks back: during the PFF era, teams with elite coverage (67th percentile or better) and a poor pass rush (33rd percentile or worse) win, on average, about a game and a half more than teams with the reverse construction. Thus, is the correct conclusion that coverage > pass rush?

 

I think that it is more nuanced than this. For one, while what happens in coverage is indeed the definitive final step in most pass plays — the pass is complete or it is not, the tackle in the open field is made or missed — it’s also extremely reactionary. DeAndre Hopkins and Josh Doctson are two different players at the catch point, so a corner facing the former player two games a year in the AFC South is likely going to have fewer successful pass breakups than someone facing the latter player twice in the NFC East. Furthermore, these pass breakups are (on average) far higher-leverage actions than those in which Donald destroys a left guard on a quick pass to the outside. EPA gained by a passing offense is a great deal more stable year to year than that prevented by a defense (r = 0.48, r-squared = 0.23). So, as our friend Josh Hermsmeyer has said on Twitter, much of what happens to a defense is controlled by the performances of the offenses it faces in these high-leverage actions.

 

The first point is what I've seen most often in regards to this discussion. Basically the way that offenses have evolved has probably shifted the balance more towards coverage over pass rush.

[SpongeWorthy]

[UMFan83]

First drive was terrible. Second drive the line is giving fields time to throw and he’s running bootlegs and looking good

[UMFan83]

Hell yeah Fields! Perfect

[Bertz]

That second drive checked pretty much every box you could ask for

[UMFan83]

And another TD pass. Fields has had time to throw the last 2 drives and he’s made the throws. Not sure if he’ll even end up playing the half at this point.

[Bertz]

[SpongeWorthy]

loading

[Proven Veteran]

So nice to see a team playing that knows what they are supposed to do. They always looked so confused the last few years.

[minnesotacubsfan]

Justin Fields

COMP/ATT YRDS TD INT

14/16 156 3 0

 

 

I know it's just preseason, but I'll also readily admit if I was wrong. Poles and Co might just be on to something here

 

fun

[raw]

No Garrett, Clowney or starting CBs for Cleveland, but this team needed it's #1 offense to show something, against anyone. And boy did they ever!