2021 Offseason Thread

[Transmogrified Tiger]

[UMFan83]

Blah

 

[Backtobanks]

The Cubs' favorite show during the off season is Last Man Standing.

[Backtobanks]

I really like this, expect it to go nowhere but really have wanted Stroman on the Cubs for years at this point. Similar to Madrigal, I think he'd help add a little bit of a mean streak to this downy soft franchise:

 

 

I have a huge preference for Stroman over Gray, just a way better pitcher. Gray throws a little harder but his fastball sucks and the popular plan will be to go with a sinker that works better with the low spin. Stroman's already the sport's premier sinker baller (the pitch also comes with a 17% whiff rate according to Savant) but also he can spin the ball (fastball's near the 80th%) and has way more swing and miss offerings with 3 other pitches - including a new splitter - recording whiff rates near or above 30%(!)

 

We all like Stroman better than Gray, but it's a matter of money. Are we going to spend $110 million/5 years rather than $56 million/4 years? Also, the competition will be tougher for a TRS rather than a MRS.

[CubinNY]

If they get Stroman, they better prioritize defense because they have a rotation of pitch to contact.

[Bertz]

 

FWIW Morosi is extremely plugged in with the Tigers

[Banedon]

[Bertz]

Basically all of the rumor guys have chimed in on the Baez-Tigers thing, feels like it's either going to happen or this is a ploy right before one of the parties moves onto their real option.

 

Meanwhile

 

 

I feel like Wacha is probably a smart signing. I wouldn't be surprised if he outperforms the 2nd starter we end up signing. That said there's a ton of bust potential there.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

 

A lot of my favorite Plan B options for various spots getting snapped up in the last week. Hope that doesn't end up biting them.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Looks like the Mets also got Canha and Marte

[Bertz]

Looks like the Mets also got Canha and Marte

 

And Javy?

 

[Bertz]

I guess, before half of them get signed, this is my crack at an offseason. This is using Tim's assumptions from a few days ago and treating the MLBTR contract estimates as gospel. For guys who don't have a projected contract (so they're outside the top 50 free agents), I'll assume they get 1/10 if they're ostensibly a starter or 1/5 if they're a bench guy or reliever.

 

Signings:

Trevor Story 6/126

Jon Gray 4/56

Kyle Seager 2/24

Danny Duffy 1/10

Tommy Pham 1/10

Brad Miller 1/5

 

I know we're supposed to avoid the QO, but this gets all of the team's shopping done at budget and without trades. And honestly I think burning a 2nd rounder is more prudent than trading 3 guys out of our top 30. If the QO is an absolute deal breaker, let's go with Rodon (1/25) and Iglesias (1/10) instead of Story and Duffy (and you have to skimp a bit more on the 'pen reinforcements).

 

Lineup:

 

RF - Pham

LF - Happ

1B - Schwindel

SS - Story

3B - Seager

C - Contreras

DH - Miller

2B - Madrigal

CF - Ortega

 

BN - Hoerner, Wisdom, Hermosillo/Ramirez, Heyward, Backup C

 

It's a pretty tepid middle of the order, but it's a deep lineup overall. Everyone but Ortega projects via Steamer as an average or better hitter, and he likely gets there via platooning. The bench is good, and gets even better when Brennen Davis comes up and pushes Ortega to the bench (and Heyward to the phantom IL?).

 

Rotation:

 

Jon Gray

Kyle Hendricks

Danny Duffy

Wade Miley

Adbert Alzolay

 

Like the lineup, this group is deep. All five guys project (a smidge) north of 2 WAR. Unlike the lineup, I think there's actual upside here. I'd also plan on keeping Thompson and Steele stretched out, as this group generally had a large 3rd time through problem last year (even compared to to what's typical). Some of that's likely noise, but some of it (Miley for sure) isn't so having a couple dedicated bulk inning guys in the pen is still prudent.

 

The team probably projects to ~85 wins, paired with what is actually a good Iowa team for the first time in ages. It's a very latter-day Oakland type of roster that's going to try and depth other teams to death. I don't think it's the best team you can build this offseason, but it has largely kept the powder dry moving forward. The farm is fully in tact, and at this point a contract with a low 9 figures outlay is hardly onerous when it's pretty much all you have on the books long term.

[Tryptamine]

Zero expectations, beyond expecting them to claim they went after various FAs, but then fill the roster with 3rd tier players and players who were good 5 years ago.

[Bertz]

[Tryptamine]

Kluber to the Rays for 1/$8 that can become 1/$13

 

Along with Erod, the guys I wanted the most amongst the realistic targets.

[Derwood]

Kluber to the Rays for 1/$8 that can become 1/$13

Cubs can't even sign the reclamation arms anymore

[Bertz]

Kluber to the Rays for 1/$8 that can become 1/$13

 

Along with Erod, the guys I wanted the most amongst the realistic targets.

 

He's a finesse arm at this point. Averaged 90.3 on the fastball last year. Jed was pretty clear about adding velo to the rotation this winter, and the team already pulled the trigger on Miley.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I don’t really see the point of a one year deal for a 35+ SP in the Cubs’ current position. Maybe if they had ace upside but those guys are probably title hunting anyway, no accident that even Kluber is going to a current favorite.

 

Speaking of SP, this got me thinking:

 

The Cubs being really in on Rodon would make some sense, both in the academic sense and consistent with current behavior. He’s younger than most(all?) other FA SP, he has velocity and big upside he’s demonstrated recently, and no QO. His risks come down to health, which likely prevents someone from going super long on a FA deal, and is the type of gamble that they should be willing to take in a rotation that has Hendricks and Miley. Rodon’s market doesn’t seem to be close to a tipping point, so if he’s Plan A and/or they generally are planning on one big FA SP like Rodon, Stroman, or maybe Gray, that would explain the lack of heavy participation with Matz, DeSclafani, etc.

[Bertz]

 

I still don't love this for us unless we're doing something pretty radical with the pitching staff. With Adbert, Mills, Steele, and Thompson there's already enough promising but questionable SP options in house.

 

That said, adding one sure fire bulk inning SP like Stroman and then going wild with piggybacks might be prudent. Something like this?

 

Stroman

Hendricks

Miley/Thompson

Adbert/Steele

Lorenzen/Mills

[Bertz]

 

I still don't love this for us unless we're doing something pretty radical with the pitching staff. With Adbert, Mills, Steele, and Thompson there's already enough promising but questionable SP options in house.

 

That said, adding one sure fire bulk inning SP like Stroman and then going wild with piggybacks might be prudent. Something like this?

 

Stroman

Hendricks

Miley/Thompson

Adbert/Steele

Lorenzen/Mills

 

Thinking about this more. Sounds like there is going to be a 13 pitcher limit next year. So you're limited to 5 "real" relievers. That said, everyone but Wieck in the current pen, plus Adbert/Steele/Thompson, all have minor league options. So if you limit yourself to one veteran reliever signing, you can probably do enough streaming between Chicago and Iowa to make it work?

 

It's A LOT of moving parts, but the Cubs might have the personnel to make it work. I'd want to see some real money thrown at the lineup though if the plan with the pitching staff is to cosplay as the Rays.

[Post Count Padder]

Buxton and Twins agree on extension. 7 years.

[Bertz]

 

:shock:

 

Edit: This is why (but probably more tomorrow than today)

 

[Tryptamine]

Avisail Garcia to Miami 4/53

[d_money]

Buxton and Twins agree on extension. 7 years.

7/$100M

[Bertz]