So...Now What?

[CubinNY]

can we blame COVID for the Cubs dismantling?

 

Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk

bad investments and over-extended credit and I'm not necessarily talking about the talent on the field.

[minnesotacubsfan]

COVID? COVID hit EVERY team

[CyHawk_Cub]

COVID? COVID hit EVERY team

But was it BIBLICAL like it was for the Cubs??

[toonsterwu]

Tony 2 Chains won’t get a guaranteed deal higher than 3 years in FA. He’s pissed he didn’t sign the purported 5 year$70M deal he was offered.

 

It's really going to be interesting to see what these guys sign for. I would love a timeline and corresponding values for any Cubs offers made to them.

 

I could see the Yankees actually overpaying for Rizzo if he continues to produce for them (3/60 or 4/75 ish). I think KB eventually gets 5/130 from somone (probably the Giants) and Baez gets 5/110 from the Mets.

That's a bummer if it's what it takes for Bryant/Baez.

 

I'd be surprised if Rizzo gets 20 AAV. I think someothing like 3/48 with an option year type deal is what he end up agreeing on.

 

I actually KB might get close to 200, if not more. He won't get Arenado numbers, but I could see a team offering him close to 30 mil AAV on maybe a 7 year type deal, maybe vesting type options on the last year.

 

I've got no guess on Baez. No guess at all. I think that one is so up in the air ... he could do so well in New York and Cohen gives him a solid deal.

[toonsterwu]

I think Hoerner will be a solid ML starter for a long time. Trading Hoerner just opens up one more hole to plug on a team with tons of holes already. Sign a few mid-level FAs (Gray, Rodon, Pham, etc.), trade Bote + prospects for Mancini, and re-evalute and do what's necessary next trade deadline or next off season.

 

I have my doubts the Orioles shop Mancini in the winter. He's under control one more year. He's viewed as a clubhouse anchor/leader of sorts, they really don't have a rush of guys coming up to take corner spots. An argument could be made that they could try to clear room for Mountcastle to take a position instead of DH (but Mountcastle might be better off at DH anyways). I'm also not sure how much value Mancini has. Honestly, if Josh Bell finishes strong in DC, taking a run at him for a temporary spot at first base might interest me more (he's had an excellent June/July that seems a bit reminiscent of his strong season a couple years back). At the deadline, I think the Orioles would consider it. Just a guess on my part.

 

By no means am I suggesting you give him away. That said, the team has a lot of holes and areas of concern. If you are addressing a hole (and upper level controllable pitching is a hole ... unless you fork over tons of money in FA), I don't see an issue. The idea that Madrigal and Hoerner are both going to be key parts of a next core ... I don't see it right now unless they make improvements.

 

As an side - you view Gray and Rodon as mid-level FA's? I guess it comes down to what you define as mid-level. Coming off the season he's had, at his age, provided the medicals check out, I think Rodon is going to be considered top tier in this pitching class. I don't know if he can sustain it, but hard to see him as "mid-tier" coming off this type of season at his age. Gray may be mid-level, although I think the age will probably get him a pretty good deal.

[Backtobanks]

 

 

FWIW Hoerner turns into the best second baseman in baseball if you sim your MLB The Show franchise to 2026.

 

That's pretty close to the time line the Cubs have for their next good team.

 

pretty shocked you had zero posts in here from the reboot in early 2016 until the 2017 offseason.

 

I don't understand your point. The 2016 team had a ton of ML ready prospects and this team doesn't. The 2016 team let their young highly regarded players play and half of the posts here want to trade Hoerner and/or Madrigal who are two of our highly regarded young players.

[jersey cubs fan]

 

That's pretty close to the time line the Cubs have for their next good team.

 

pretty shocked you had zero posts in here from the reboot in early 2016 until the 2017 offseason.

 

I don't understand your point. The 2016 team had a ton of ML ready prospects and this team doesn't. The 2016 team let their young highly regarded players play and half of the posts here want to trade Hoerner and/or Madrigal who are two of our highly regarded young players.

The insinuation is that as a Hendry apologist you were embarrassed by the success of the Theo era you predicted would go so horribly wrong so you stayed away until things started to get worse again and you could come in and complain about the team some more.

[CubinNY]

you guys have long (good) memories. I don't remember anything.

[Tim]

As an side - you view Gray and Rodon as mid-level FA's? I guess it comes down to what you define as mid-level. Coming off the season he's had, at his age, provided the medicals check out, I think Rodon is going to be considered top tier in this pitching class. I don't know if he can sustain it, but hard to see him as "mid-tier" coming off this type of season at his age. Gray may be mid-level, although I think the age will probably get him a pretty good deal.

I'm assuming that Rodon & Gausman are going to get paid.

 

I put Gray in the middle tier, though he's probably right at the top of that tier. Teams may surprise me and give him a big deal, but I don't think he's going to get paid like the top tier guys of recent years.

[Backtobanks]

 

pretty shocked you had zero posts in here from the reboot in early 2016 until the 2017 offseason.

 

I don't understand your point. The 2016 team had a ton of ML ready prospects and this team doesn't. The 2016 team let their young highly regarded players play and half of the posts here want to trade Hoerner and/or Madrigal who are two of our highly regarded young players.

The insinuation is that as a Hendry apologist you were embarrassed by the success of the Theo era you predicted would go so horribly wrong so you stayed away until things started to get worse again and you could come in and complain about the team some more.

 

I never went away. I've always felt that when a club is going good, no one person should get all the credit and when they're going bad, no one person should get all the blame. All World Series champions have to smart, willing to spend, healthy, and lucky. Epstein deserves credit for bringing together a group of guys who blended together and pulled off something that many of us old-timers didn't think we would ever see. The fact Hendry wasn't able to deliver a WS championship doesn't mean he is as horrible as some people portrayed him.

[mias_tisg]

 

I don't understand your point. The 2016 team had a ton of ML ready prospects and this team doesn't. The 2016 team let their young highly regarded players play and half of the posts here want to trade Hoerner and/or Madrigal who are two of our highly regarded young players.

The insinuation is that as a Hendry apologist you were embarrassed by the success of the Theo era you predicted would go so horribly wrong so you stayed away until things started to get worse again and you could come in and complain about the team some more.

 

I never went away. I've always felt that when a club is going good, no one person should get all the credit and when they're going bad, no one person should get all the blame. All World Series champions have to smart, willing to spend, healthy, and lucky. Epstein deserves credit for bringing together a group of guys who blended together and pulled off something that many of us old-timers didn't think we would ever see. The fact Hendry wasn't able to deliver a WS championship doesn't mean he is as horrible as some people portrayed him.

Hendry was pretty damn bad. And granted some of it was him being hampered by the Tribune Company and Sam Zell's ownership (no idea how people can even muster a complaint about the Ricketts family and spending after dealing with that) but there's a reason Hendry didn't get a GM job after he was fired.

[David]

 

I don't understand your point. The 2016 team had a ton of ML ready prospects and this team doesn't. The 2016 team let their young highly regarded players play and half of the posts here want to trade Hoerner and/or Madrigal who are two of our highly regarded young players.

The insinuation is that as a Hendry apologist you were embarrassed by the success of the Theo era you predicted would go so horribly wrong so you stayed away until things started to get worse again and you could come in and complain about the team some more.

 

I never went away.

 

search.php?st=0&sk=t&sd=d&sr=posts&author_id=314&start=825

 

then why are these your oldest posts (after the winter 2015-16 board crash)

[NOLA]

The insinuation is that as a Hendry apologist you were embarrassed by the success of the Theo era you predicted would go so horribly wrong so you stayed away until things started to get worse again and you could come in and complain about the team some more.

 

I never went away.

 

search.php?st=0&sk=t&sd=d&sr=posts&author_id=314&start=825

 

then why are these your oldest posts (after the winter 2015-16 board crash)

ALways fun to go back in these threads.

JBJ just isn't a great fit for the Cubs. I feel oddly confident Almora is going to be very solid going forward. My guess is the Cubs do too.

 

That said, you're getting Abreu and much more, for JBJ. Not the other way around.

 

Yeah, I think Almora is going to be our CF for quite a few years.

I think we all were duped.

[UMFan83]

The insinuation is that as a Hendry apologist you were embarrassed by the success of the Theo era you predicted would go so horribly wrong so you stayed away until things started to get worse again and you could come in and complain about the team some more.

 

I never went away. I've always felt that when a club is going good, no one person should get all the credit and when they're going bad, no one person should get all the blame. All World Series champions have to smart, willing to spend, healthy, and lucky. Epstein deserves credit for bringing together a group of guys who blended together and pulled off something that many of us old-timers didn't think we would ever see. The fact Hendry wasn't able to deliver a WS championship doesn't mean he is as horrible as some people portrayed him.

Hendry was pretty damn bad. And granted some of it was him being hampered by the Tribune Company and Sam Zell's ownership (no idea how people can even muster a complaint about the Ricketts family and spending after dealing with that) but there's a reason Hendry didn't get a GM job after he was fired.

 

Hendry was bad, but also a bit hampered by the mom and pop operation the Cubs were running at the time. I remember all the stuff when Theo took over about having the smallest FO, least number of scouts, still receiving season ticket orders by fax, etc. His biggest issue in my mind is that he failed to draft/sign and develop virtually any talent after Prior, Wood and Zambrano. Is that because they had lack of scouting resources? Or because Hendry hired a terrible scouting director that made mindblowingly bad 1st round picks? Or because the Cubs were not spending on the draft like other large market teams who were using exploits in the system to acquire ridiculous amounts of talent?

 

My point is that there was a lot that went into his failure and I'm not convinced its entirely his fault (though a lot was)

[toonsterwu]

As an side - you view Gray and Rodon as mid-level FA's? I guess it comes down to what you define as mid-level. Coming off the season he's had, at his age, provided the medicals check out, I think Rodon is going to be considered top tier in this pitching class. I don't know if he can sustain it, but hard to see him as "mid-tier" coming off this type of season at his age. Gray may be mid-level, although I think the age will probably get him a pretty good deal.

I'm assuming that Rodon & Gausman are going to get paid.

 

I put Gray in the middle tier, though he's probably right at the top of that tier. Teams may surprise me and give him a big deal, but I don't think he's going to get paid like the top tier guys of recent years.

 

I could see that.

 

Honestly, I'd be surprised if their GM held onto Gray and doesn't sign him to an extension, considering Gray says he wants to be there. I think it's the wrong move for them - they need to be stockpiling for a couple years down the road with the NL West so loaded right now, but I honestly think he gets signed to an extension.

 

Without knowing how teams view their financial situations, I'd put him at least in the 16-20 mil AAV territory, which is on the high end of middle tier, I guess. I'm guessing Rodon gets in that 20-25 mil range.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Hendry's organization was bad overall, but they could scout and develop pitching in a way that Epstein/Hoyer have never come close to.

 

The thing with Epstein/Hoyer is that they just didn't deliver what they promised. There was no sustained success/revitalized organization. They ran the small market tank-and-spank plan. They ran it with more money and better success than almost anyone, which is to their credit, but it was always going to end with the next guy getting stuck with the crater they left behind.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

His biggest issue in my mind is that he failed to draft/sign and develop virtually any talent after Prior, Wood and Zambrano.

 

Baez, Contreras, Samardzija

[jersey cubs fan]

Hendry was bad, but also a bit hampered by the mom and pop operation the Cubs were running at the time.

 

Hendry was the GM of a major market team exactly because they were run like a mom and pop shop. He was a gym teacher who ran the team like an old school traditional GM at a time when good front offices were exploiting these guys. It's not Hendry's fault he was a failed GM, because he never should have been a GM. He was a scout.

 

He was Phil Emery with social skills.

[toonsterwu]

 

I never went away. I've always felt that when a club is going good, no one person should get all the credit and when they're going bad, no one person should get all the blame. All World Series champions have to smart, willing to spend, healthy, and lucky. Epstein deserves credit for bringing together a group of guys who blended together and pulled off something that many of us old-timers didn't think we would ever see. The fact Hendry wasn't able to deliver a WS championship doesn't mean he is as horrible as some people portrayed him.

Hendry was pretty damn bad. And granted some of it was him being hampered by the Tribune Company and Sam Zell's ownership (no idea how people can even muster a complaint about the Ricketts family and spending after dealing with that) but there's a reason Hendry didn't get a GM job after he was fired.

 

Hendry was bad, but also a bit hampered by the mom and pop operation the Cubs were running at the time. I remember all the stuff when Theo took over about having the smallest FO, least number of scouts, still receiving season ticket orders by fax, etc. His biggest issue in my mind is that he failed to draft/sign and develop virtually any talent after Prior, Wood and Zambrano. Is that because they had lack of scouting resources? Or because Hendry hired a terrible scouting director that made mindblowingly bad 1st round picks? Or because the Cubs were not spending on the draft like other large market teams who were using exploits in the system to acquire ridiculous amounts of talent?

 

My point is that there was a lot that went into his failure and I'm not convinced its entirely his fault (though a lot was)

 

I'm not trying to defend the Hendry/Wilken run, but I will say, the Hendry/Wilken draft record wasn't as bad as people make it out to be. What it missed on, though, and why it was so noticeable, were the first round picks. Wilken had his good runs. All scouting directors end up having good runs and bad runs, and obviously, you can scout, but you have to develop.

 

Wilken's first draft was what, 2006? Colvin's draft right? That wasn't the best, but when you don't have 2nd-4th round picks, it hurts. I recall looking at baseball reference awhile ago, and Wilken's best drafts (in terms of guys reaching the bigs) for the Cubs was around 10-12 guys. He had a couple drafts were only 4-6 guys made it.

 

That first TheoJed draft, 2012, only had 5 guys. 2nd draft was 4 (I kept thinking Zack Godley was before TheoJed, but to their credit, he was one of their picks). The 2014 class only had 6. 2015 has only had 3. 2016 had 4. Judging anything after 2016 wouldn't be fair ... it's too recent and COVID hampered things (although 2017 doesn't look too promising either). Even 2016 still has guys hanging around. It's almost glaring how few guys the Cubs have developed internally that have reached the bigs (and I've included guys that reached the bigs after getting traded, like Hatch and Lange).

 

This isn't to bash on regime or another. The number of picks to reach the majors only tells part of the story, obviously. TheoJed hit on a couple key picks (hard to buy stars consistently, easier to buy role players), had a bigger budget, did a fairly effective job in trading, had a far bigger international budget (remember Felix Pie days ... ) and won a title. Still, the number of guys to get there does tell a story to me, which is that, all scouting directors can fail pretty badly at times, and development is huge. Wilken had an excellent reputation. McLeod did as well. Kantrovitz does as well.

 

It's not hard to see why the Cubs had to hit a rebuild. Ugh ... the numbers of guys that hit the bigs from 2012-2017 is pretty damn low.

[CyHawk_Cub]

 

I never went away.

 

http://www.northsidebaseball.com/forum/search.php?st=0&sk=t&sd=d&sr=posts&author_id=314&start=825

 

then why are these your oldest posts (after the winter 2015-16 board crash)

ALways fun to go back in these threads.

JBJ just isn't a great fit for the Cubs. I feel oddly confident Almora is going to be very solid going forward. My guess is the Cubs do too.

 

That said, you're getting Abreu and much more, for JBJ. Not the other way around.

 

Yeah, I think Almora is going to be our CF for quite a few years.

I think we all were duped.

Not all of us....but then again, I thought Heyward would be a beast, so we're all fallible. Contact > power will be the FOTM among some fans for a while. Until they remember that dingers rock and that needing 3 straight hits to score sucks in a different way.

[mias_tisg]

 

search.php?st=0&sk=t&sd=d&sr=posts&author_id=314&start=825

 

then why are these your oldest posts (after the winter 2015-16 board crash)

ALways fun to go back in these threads.

 

Yeah, I think Almora is going to be our CF for quite a few years.

I think we all were duped.

Not all of us....but then again, I thought Heyward would be a beast, so we're all fallible. Contact > power will be the FOTM among some fans for a while. Until they remember that dingers rock and that needing 3 straight hits to score sucks in a different way.

I think you can have some happy medium of contact bats and guys that hit dongs.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

ALways fun to go back in these threads.

 

I think we all were duped.

Not all of us....but then again, I thought Heyward would be a beast, so we're all fallible. Contact > power will be the FOTM among some fans for a while. Until they remember that dingers rock and that needing 3 straight hits to score sucks in a different way.

I think you can have some happy medium of contact bats and guys that hit dongs.

 

You probably can, but I don't want it. Walks and dongs please.

[Tim]

All I want is a roster packed with guys that walk, hit for contact, hit dongs, and play great defense.

 

I don't feel that's too much to ask.

[Derwood]

All I want is a roster packed with guys that walk, hit for contact, hit dongs, and play great defense.

 

I don't feel that's too much to ask.

 

And 5 number 1 starters with a bullpen full of closers.

[jersey cubs fan]

All I want is a roster packed with guys that walk, hit for contact, hit dongs, and play great defense.

 

I don't feel that's too much to ask.

 

And 5 number 1 starters with a bullpen full of closers.

A real number 1 starter doesn't need a closer