Marisnick to the Padres

[Outshined_One]

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[CubinNY]

horsefeathers, who is even left on the big league roster to play?

[Bull]

horsefeathers, who is even left on the big league roster to play?

Nick Madrigal and Codi Hauer

[Post Count Padder]

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He was once a big time prospect.

[Tim]

Fangraphs on Espinoza:

Acquired from Boston for Drew Pomeranz in July 2016, Espinoza had only thrown 32 innings of affiliated ball for the Padres until, after a series of injuries and the pandemic, he was finally back to start 2021.

 

I was at what was, to this point, Espinoza’s last outing as a top prospect. It was his final spring training start of 2017, when he sat 94-97 and flashed a plus changeup and curveball during the course of a few breezy innings while a handful of scouts and Espinoza’s parents watched. Between that outing and his first regular season start for High-A Lake Elsinore, he felt discomfort in his elbow and was shut down. After several weeks of rest and rehab, it was decided that he needed Tommy John surgery, which he had early in August. The timing wasn’t great, and Espinoza missed all of 2018 working back from surgery, then re-tore his elbow during the spring of ’19 and needed a second TJ; you know the rest.

 

In his lone big league outing this spring, he sat 93-95 with very little feel to pitch, and the TV gun had him up to 97 in his first outing at Fort Wayne. Espinoza’s delivery has changed a little bit. His stride is a little longer and slightly more open than before. Just from comparing video from 2016 and now, his hips are a little more square to the plate on release and his arm slot is a bit higher, though that could be the camera angles playing tricks on me. Hopefully this aids in his command and fastball playability (if there’s indeed a new slot). At peak prospectdom, Espinoza had All-Star stuff with command-driven relief risk. What he ends up becoming after nearly five years without an affiliated inning will be impacted by a) workload constraints and b) roster flexibility. I think he has a chance to start long-term because he’s still just 23 and has the talent to generate swing-and-miss action on a couple different pitches. Plus, I ‘m betting on the Padres being granted an extra option year for Espinoza due to injury hardship, which gives him a little longer of a runway to rebuild an innings count and shake off whatever rust has accumulated since he last pitched consistently. I want to value Espinoza in an impact FV tier because of his pedigree and because some the dev context surrounding him is favorable. (Alternate site)

[toonsterwu]

Espinoza was a STUD once. This was a stud once, and then injuries and COVID.

 

I love this deal. It might be my favorite deal of the deadline. It may flameout, but boy, there's huge upside, and Marisnick is a nice role player. It's funny, the deals for Marisnick and Rizzo are the ones that I'm most excited about. Excitement doesn't always lead to positive results, but hey, it leads to intrigue.

[SouthernmostCubFan]

Espinoza was a STUD once. This was a stud once, and then injuries and COVID.

 

I love this deal. It might be my favorite deal of the deadline. It may flameout, but boy, there's huge upside, and Marisnick is a nice role player. It's funny, the deals for Marisnick and Rizzo are the ones that I'm most excited about. Excitement doesn't always lead to positive results, but hey, it leads to intrigue.

 

My favorite two trades too. There’s lots of potential upside to Espinoza.

[Post Count Padder]

I mean if he can throw two pitches well and bring some heat and ends up topping out as a 7th-8th inning reliever, that's a fine return for a backup rental outfielder.

[SouthernmostCubFan]

To throw a damper on this excitement:

 

At his prospect peak in 2016-2017, he was not really performing like the stud they were saying he was. He came out with a dominant 2015 at 17 pitching in the DSL and GCL rk leagues but the next year posted run prevention numbers well below league average between a couple A ball leagues, gave up 115 Hs in 108.1 IP with only 100 Ks, and got traded. He's since has had multiple TJ surgeries and is in High A

 

He does throw three pitches, not sure of their quality these days but he had a good changeup back then. Plus in 2015-2016 he cave up just 3 HRs in 166_ innings. Right now he's struggling with 2 and change inning outs in High A and the upside may be a SIMRP

 

“I think he has a chance to start long-term because he’s still just 23 and has the talent to generate swing-and-miss action on a couple different pitches”

[toonsterwu]

Oh, I know that Espinoza was more upside and potential than performance back then. That said, it was tantalizing upside, 3 plus pitches upside.

 

I also know that, you miss so many years, there could be nothing.

 

I think, considering the age, the Cubs should still work him as a starter. There looks to be some positive signs so far this year. If he shows well the 2nd half, then he starts in AA next year. If not, then you can move him to the pen and see if things can accelerate.

[Productive Outs]

[SouthernmostCubFan]

 

In the 2016 time frame he was the #1 SDP prospect and the #4 right hand pitcher on the MLB Top 100.