2021 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

[Outshined_One]

No bargain basement 10k senior signs yet, a bit surprising.

 

5

154

Spence, Liam

Tennessee (TN)

SS

R/R

4YR SR

 

There you go.

[Outshined_One]

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the "Who?" portion of the draft.

 

6

184

Martin, Riley

Quincy University (IL)

P

L/L

4YR 5S

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Franklin was rated 52nd by MLB Pipeline:

 

Christian Franklin OF, Arkansas

 

AGE 21

BATS R

DOB 11/30/1999

THROWS R

HT 5' 11"

WT 195

TWITTER @CF13_

 

Scouting Grades/Report (20-80 grading scale)

HIT 45

POWER 55

RUN 55

ARM 60

FIELD 60

OVERALL 50

 

Arkansas' last two first-round picks have been outfielders -- Andrew Benintendi in 2015 and Heston Kjerstad last year -- and Franklin has the upside to give the Razorbacks a third. He earned a starting job as a freshman in 2019, when he had some swing-and-miss issues, but has made adjustments and done more consistent damage over the past two seasons. He has some of the best all-around tools in this Draft's college class with his power, speed, arm and defense all grading as solid to plus.

 

Franklin has shown marked improvement in his plate discipline since his freshman year, and if he can put together quality at-bats on a regular basis, he might be a 20-20 player. His bat speed and strength create power to all fields from the right side of the plate, and he produces impressive exit velocities. He has the quickness and savvy to steal bases, though scouts have noted he's not running quite as fast this year as he had previously.

 

Franklin covers plenty of ground in center field thanks to his speed and instincts. He has a stronger arm than most at his position and throws well enough to handle either corner. If he doesn't hit enough to be a big league regular, he has the tools to become a useful fourth outfielder.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

BA had Franklin at 57:

 

57 Christian Franklin OF Arkansas

 

Ht: 5-11 | Wt: 185 | B-T: R-R

Commit/Drafted: Never Drafted

Age At Draft: 21.6

 

BA Grade: 50 | Risk: High

Hit: 45 | Power: 55 | Run: 50 | Field: 55 | Arm: 55

 

As of early June, Franklin was hitting below .300 (.294), but like the rest of his teammates he dominated opponents by drawing walks and hitting for power. Franklin’s power/speed combo is even more alluring now that he’s answered some of the questions that once surrounded his ability in center field. The 5-foot-11, 195-pound center fielder is an average runner who takes a while to get to top speed (and his big swing means he generally turns in 4.35-second times to first), but he is excellent at leaving his feet and is fearless going back on balls to the wall. He’s an above-average defender who also has an above-average, accurate arm. At the plate, Franklin uses the entire field well, with above-average power and the ability to turn on fastballs on the inner half. He has a modest timing step, getting his foot down consistently on time. When he gets a ball to pull, he does an excellent job of using his lower half, generating excellent exit velocities. Franklin recognizes and feasts on changeups in the zone as well. He proved vulnerable to chasing sliders down and away in the zone, but if pitchers get greedy, he will lay off of them if they go far out of the zone. Franklin can be beaten in the zone, but he rarely expands to chase pitches out of it, especially when he gets into two-strike counts. Franklin’s well-rounded skill set and three years of production for Arkansas make him a pretty safe pick, and he has enough power and plate discipline to make a solid MLB impact as well.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I will never ever get tired of small school players with video game numbers. 152 Ks in 78.2 IP(44.5% K%) as a starting pitcher, hilarious.

[CubinNY]

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the "Who?" portion of the draft.

 

6

184

Martin, Riley

Quincy University (IL)

P

L/L

4YR 5S

I wonder if he's related to the guy who claimed he was abducted by aliens?

 

http://www.rileymartin.com/

[Outshined_One]

I will never ever get tired of small school players with video game numbers. 152 Ks in 78.2 IP(44.5% K%) as a starting pitcher, hilarious.

 

He also probably knows all the best spots for stone skippin' and muddin'.

 

[toonsterwu]

I don't mind the draft so far, but I can't say I'm terribly enthused about it. Oddly, my favorite pick so far might be Liam Spence, as I think he can find a role in the bigs, even if it's more as a depth utility player who pinch runs. I'll be curious about how Franklin hits - he's the guy that feels like there's some star power, although Triantos and Gray are interesting upside picks. It's a nice mix of floor and ceiling, and considering where we are picking in the round, it's not bad, and depth drafts are important.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Parker Chavers in the 7th, a Coastal Carolina outfielder (senior/Covid junior).

 

Not shocking the Cubs go back to Coastal.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

BA ranked Chavers 176th:

 

176 Parker Chavers OF Coastal Carolina

 

Ht: 5-11 | Wt: 185 | B-T: L-R

Commit/Drafted: Never Drafted

Age At Draft: 23.0

 

BA Grade: 45 | Risk: Extreme

Hit: 45 | Power: 45 | Run: 70 | Field: 55 | Arm: 55

 

Chavers ranked as the No. 167 prospect in the 2020 class and likely would have ranked higher than that if it wasn’t for an arm issue that prevented him from playing at all in the shortened season. Plenty of scouts really liked the five-tool ability Chavers has shown, but they wanted to see more collegiate production and were a bit worried about some of his swing-and-miss tendencies. This spring, Chavers led the Chanticleers in hitting and posted a .318/.407/.477 line with five home runs and lowered his strikeout rate from 18% in 2019 to 13%. Listed at 5-foot-11, 185 pounds, Chavers is a plus-plus runner with above-average defense, above-average arm strength and at least solid raw power. He didn’t tap into as much in-game juice this spring as he showed in 2019, but that overall tool set from a lefthanded-hitting center fielder is typically coveted by scouts. What could complicate Chavers’ draft stock is his age. He’ll be 23 just after the draft and how teams decide to weigh that could lower him on some boards. While Chavers does have the tools for an everyday profile, he has struggled throughout his collegiate career against lefthanders, and this spring hit just .246/.313/.328 against them in an admittedly small sample—though he also struggled against southpaws in 2019.

[stitchface]

I will never ever get tired of small school players with video game numbers. 152 Ks in 78.2 IP(44.5% K%) as a starting pitcher, hilarious.

 

He also probably knows all the best spots for stone skippin' and muddin'.

 

 

think he's vaccinated? Did they only have budget to go to arkansas this year?

[Little Slide Rooter]

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the "Who?" portion of the draft.

 

Almost as fun as tomorrow’s “names out of a hat” extravaganza.

[craig]

I will never ever get tired of small school players with video game numbers. 152 Ks in 78.2 IP(44.5% K%) as a starting pitcher, hilarious.

 

He also probably knows all the best spots for stone skippin' and muddin'.

 

 

He's an A-student Chemistry/Biology major, and was his conference's baseball student-athlete of the year.

 

Maybe he and Breslow can hang out, and then Breslow can hire him as a coach if his pitching career washes out?

[CaliforniaRaisin]

BA had 8th rounder Casey Opitz ranked 245th:

 

245 Casey Opitz C Arkansas

Ht: 5-11 | Wt: 200 | B-T: B-R

Commit/Drafted: Indians '17 (27)

Age At Draft: 23.0

RapScore: 50

 

A 27th-round pick of the Indians in 2017 coming out of high school, Opitz has played nearly 150 games for Arkansas, although thanks to the coronavirus eligibility rules, he could return for another year in 2022. Opitz does everything scouts want to see behind the plate. He’s an excellent catch-and-throw catcher with arguably the best arm in the draft class. Opitz regularly records plus-plus pop times. He has thrown out 43% of basestealers for his career, and his presence has largely led some teams to shut down their basestealing when he’s at work. He works well with pitchers and shows excellent ability to block balls in the dirt. So why has a catcher with above-average defense and a plus-plus arm struggled to gain traction with scouts? It’s the bat. Opitz projects as a well below-average hitter with bottom-of-the-scale power. He has hit five home runs in over 500 career plate appearances. His 2021 season (.259/.370/.351) tracks right in line with his .253/.365/.344 career line at Arkansas. Opitz understands the strike zone and draws walks, but he struggles to catch up to velocity. A team picking Opitz knows it will be getting a backstop who can improve a pitching staff, but to even be an MLB backup he’ll need to significantly improve as a hitter.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

BA had 9th rounder Chase Watkins ranked 284th:

 

284 Chase Watkins LHP Oregon State

 

Ht: 6-4 | Wt: 217 | B-T: L-L

Commit/Drafted: Never Drafted

Age At Draft: 21.8

RapScore: 47

 

Watkins is no stranger to playing in various environments, having started his career at Cal Poly in 2019 before transferring to College of Central Florida in 2020, where he went 4-1, 1.91 with 44 strikeouts in 28.1 innings. He found a home in Oregon State’s bullpen this season, where he was used as a situational lefthander. Watkins has a long frame at 6-foot-4, 217 pounds, with a fastball that sits 90-92 mph. He commands the pitch well, and has shown the ability to spin his hammer curveball. He also throws a cut-action slider and changeup, with good deception thanks to his arm speed. Some evaluators believe he has the stuff to start, although he has just 14 collegiate starts to his name.

[Bertz]

Initially, though, the Cubs went big in rounds 1-4 and then the senior picks began to save some money. Who are they saving it for? Could they spend all their savings tomorrow on an overslot guy? Or is it going to Gray?

 

I think this line from Cubs Central's live blog is the big question. The Cubs probably saved money on each pick from 5-10, so where's that money going? I didn't think Triantos or Gray sounded particularly expensive. So does that mean they're going to be able to shoot a fairly significant shot in round 11? Or am I misreading one of those guys, Gray probably being most likely.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Initially, though, the Cubs went big in rounds 1-4 and then the senior picks began to save some money. Who are they saving it for? Could they spend all their savings tomorrow on an overslot guy? Or is it going to Gray?

 

I think this line from Cubs Central's live blog is the big question. The Cubs probably saved money on each pick from 5-10, so where's that money going? I didn't think Triantos or Gray sounded particularly expensive. So does that mean they're going to be able to shoot a fairly significant shot in round 11? Or am I misreading one of those guys, Gray probably being most likely.

 

I think Trinatos, Gray and Franklin are all over slot but the question is by how much. I'd guess between the three of them, they're over slot by $1.25-$1.5 million and so I wasn't expecting anything more than say one $300-$500k guy tomorrow (the first $125k don't count to the cap).

[craig]

I don't mind the draft so far,.... although Triantos and Gray are interesting upside picks. .....

 

toonster or anybody else who might know, (I thought of you as a Virginia expert!), do you know if Triantos's Fairfax school was in the biggest-school level in Virginia? Or would a Fairfax high school with 2-3000 students be playing at a second level, even in the playoffs?

 

I'm wondering whether his season stats and stuff are partly built on having a lot of smaller weaker schools on his schedule? Or if even in the state playoffs, he still wasn't facing the best and fastest pitching? Or was he probably facing pretty good competition for most of his game, and if not always in the regular season, at least yes in the playoffs?

 

I saw an article after the state championship game, in which he hit a HR and was the winning pitcher 2-1, that the opposing coach said he was the best player in Virginia. So I'm trying to process whether that's a 2nd-tier coach who hasn't seen the best? Or whether that's a coach from a top-level school who's seen plenty of Virginia's best kids over the years, but still sees Triantos as being as good as Virginia produces? If that makes sense?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I don't mind the draft so far,.... although Triantos and Gray are interesting upside picks. .....

 

toonster or anybody else who might know, (I thought of you as a Virginia expert!), do you know if Triantos's Fairfax school was in the biggest-school level in Virginia? Or would a Fairfax high school with 2-3000 students be playing at a second level, even in the playoffs?

 

I'm wondering whether his season stats and stuff are partly built on having a lot of smaller weaker schools on his schedule? Or if even in the state playoffs, he still wasn't facing the best and fastest pitching? Or was he probably facing pretty good competition for most of his game, and if not always in the regular season, at least yes in the playoffs?

 

I saw an article after the state championship game, in which he hit a HR and was the winning pitcher 2-1, that the opposing coach said he was the best player in Virginia. So I'm trying to process whether that's a 2nd-tier coach who hasn't seen the best? Or whether that's a coach from a top-level school who's seen plenty of Virginia's best kids over the years, but still sees Triantos as being as good as Virginia produces? If that makes sense?

 

 

Some quick googling says that James Madison is Class 6, which appears to be the class with the biggest schools in the state.

[craig]

Franklin hit .263 and .274 BA in his two sample-size non-Covid seasons. Over 1/3 of his AB's this season were K's.

 

Huge red flags for me. Guys who are super-K even against college pitching, hard to imagine making enough contact to be useful in the majors. Mark me as a huge doubter. One of the reports also noted that he's a down-ball guy, which would suggest he might get exposed even worse by big-league pitchers.

 

Yet oddly many of the scouting media still had him as a top 70 prospect despite all that. I don't get it, actually. I assume those guys are smart and logical, so must see some remediation possible?

 

I admit I'd not blow much if any superslot on a guy who K's >1/3 of his AB even versus college pitchers, though.

[Named After Maddux]

I don't mind the draft so far,.... although Triantos and Gray are interesting upside picks. .....

 

toonster or anybody else who might know, (I thought of you as a Virginia expert!), do you know if Triantos's Fairfax school was in the biggest-school level in Virginia? Or would a Fairfax high school with 2-3000 students be playing at a second level, even in the playoffs?

 

I'm wondering whether his season stats and stuff are partly built on having a lot of smaller weaker schools on his schedule? Or if even in the state playoffs, he still wasn't facing the best and fastest pitching? Or was he probably facing pretty good competition for most of his game, and if not always in the regular season, at least yes in the playoffs?

 

I saw an article after the state championship game, in which he hit a HR and was the winning pitcher 2-1, that the opposing coach said he was the best player in Virginia. So I'm trying to process whether that's a 2nd-tier coach who hasn't seen the best? Or whether that's a coach from a top-level school who's seen plenty of Virginia's best kids over the years, but still sees Triantos as being as good as Virginia produces? If that makes sense?

 

So I believe that Triantos’ high school (Madison) is a 6A team and that’s the highest division. But what’s really exciting about Triantos is his performance against other big talent in the showcase circuit. He led all players with a 94% contact rate. Will Taylor was the only guy really close at 92%. For reference Harry Ford’s was 81% and that’s really good (Josh Baez was at 65%). He had a similar max EV as Will Taylor, Harry Ford, and Colson Montgomery. His chase rate was ok at 23% (Lawler’s was 24%).

[Outshined_One]

Yet oddly many of the scouting media still had him as a top 70 prospect despite all that. I don't get it, actually. I assume those guys are smart and logical, so must see some remediation possible?

 

Premium speed and defense to go with power, so even if he couldn't hit above the Mendoza Line, he still could be a useful bench piece as a defensive replacement and/or pinch runner.

 

He fell for a reason, but even if he doesn't smooth out his K issues, he can still for make a solid 4th OF option.

[toonsterwu]

Maybe I'm just cynical now with "old age" in following the Cubs, but I don't know how to feel that my two "favorite" picks for the Cubs might be Liam Spence and Casey Opitz (and I wonder how much my mild interest in Casey Opitz is because his brother was in the system and I remember the name). I view Spence as a guy who should be able to get to the majors in a backup role (watch me dead wrong, but here's hoping) as at least a pinch runner/utility player. Casey looks like he should move up the ladder to at least be a solid organizational catcher, and while that may sound insignificant, it would help our guys development to have a steady guy like Casey to throw to. If the bat improves a tiny bit, you can envision him as a backup backstop in the majors.

 

Don't know ... I feel a lot more cynical about this draft because I sort of feel like almost every year, I tend to rationalized away picks, and let's face it, the record of picks in the TheoJed era hasn't been particularly great. I think Triantos/Gray offer good upside, but boy, they are very raw high upside, if you can have raw high upside. Gray feels like a long way off, and with the redone minors, I just don't know how development paths are going to be changed now if a guy struggles at any point. I really don't mind the Triantos pick, caught me off guard a bit. I really don't know if he's a 3rd baseman, though, so we'll have to see.

 

Chavers makes me think of Donnie Dewees, but for a 7th round pick and a cheap senior sign, not bad. There's stuff to work with. It's not a bad draft considering where we were drafting, but I'm just not terribly excited. Here's hoping Kantrowitz and Co. are spot on and we get some strong producers out of this draft. Sometimes the exciting drafts turn out to be nothing, so who knows.

 

Craig - I follow UVA moreso than VHSL, and any HS guys, I tend to not follow until their senior year, after they've committed and you know who's going where. That said, Named is correct - VHSL is split into 6 classes, and Class 6 is filled with the largest schools (I believe the smallest Class 6 has around 1900+ students). I believe it's not A, but rather D (that's not significant though). Triantos' reclassification might have kept him a bit under-the-radar, but he's a quality talent. I don't know how his reactions work at 3rd, and he's definitely not playing MI. He might end up in a corner role. He's got good bat speed, but the swing is a bit long at times, but I'm not particularly concerned because for a kid this young, you expect development is going to put a lot of work in. There's raw tools to work with, and he may have 50-55 power, so I don't mind the pick. I'm just not sure how enthused I am.

[craig]

Maybe I'm just cynical now with "old age" in following the Cubs, but I don't know how to feel that my two "favorite" picks for the Cubs might be Liam Spence and Casey Opitz (and I wonder how much my mild interest in Casey Opitz is because his brother was in the system and I remember the name). I view Spence as a guy who should be able to get to the majors in a backup role (watch me dead wrong, but here's hoping) as at least a pinch runner/utility player. Casey looks like he should move up the ladder to at least be a solid organizational catcher, and while that may sound insignificant, it would help our guys development to have a steady guy like Casey to throw to. If the bat improves a tiny bit, you can envision him as a backup backstop in the majors....

 

toonster, thanks for notes on Triantos. I know at least one of the scouting reports I saw thought he might be 2B-capable. I'm not scout enough to know either way. But I admit I do recall assumptions that guys would have to move, who never did. Baez was perceived as a stocky guy who'd have to move off of SS; only that wasn't true. My understanding is the same was thought for Addison Russell, who ended up being one of the best defensive SS's I've ever seen. I'm not in the least suggestion Triantos will ever play SS; just that it's sometimes hard to tell what a guy might be able to do, and perhaps he'll be fine at 2B or 3B.

 

I almost wonder if the Cubs don't assume as much? If they perceived Triantos as limited to 3B/LF, would they have spent a 2nd round pick perhaps with superslot cash for him? More likely to want him a lot *if* they hypothetically thought that 2B was within his scope.

 

Each of us likes picks for whatever reasons. But I admit I don't really have "favorite" for Opitz, for example, who is purely a an organizational roster-filler. We are all prospects and minor-league watchers, but I can't get very fired up about a guy whose upside is to catch for our AA team. Or for Spence as contact-hitting utility guy. The "favorites" for me would certainly be the guys I perceive as having the best chances to become major leaguers who I might like having pitch or hit. So yeah, I'm pretty much focused on the first three picks who have the big-league possibilities and have the chance to be good.

 

I like Spence; he might perhaps hit enough to be a capable-hitting contact-hitter 2b or utility guy. I like Chavers and think he's got a chance to be a good-hitting platoon guy. I kinda like Watkins, because any lefty with his existing velocity and breaking ball has a shot to become a valuable relief guy; if the pitch lab helped him add some velocity, and he's already got a good breaking pitch, why couldn't he be a good major-leaguer? And I admit I'm curious about Riley Martin; if pitch-lab added some velocity, who knows what he might become? To be K'ing 2 guys per inning even in D2 isn't easy, so I'm curious to see whether given some time in the system if he might not have big-league possibilities.

[toonsterwu]

I think "favorite" was more my attempt express some cynicism about the draft.

 

You are right, I may be a bit quick to limit Triantos to a corner. I guess I could see a scenario where 2nd is possible. My main concern is that, while he's not a huge guy, he'll likely fill out a bit more, and he's already an average/below average runner. That tends to suggest he might be a bit more limited as he does more focused weight training and adds to his frame, but I guess it's possible. To be fair, he probably should stick at short until he proves otherwise.

 

I don't think Triantos gets drafted because of his defensive profile, though. They must have all the numbers from his showcases and measurements. If they draft him, I think it's as much to do with the idea that they believe in the power, and they believe in the power development. And if that power does develop, it's fine for the corners. I mean, I can envision him as a solid RF if forced to move out there (arm, athleticism would tend to suggest he could handle it, and if the power develops, it'll play at the position).

 

To be very clear, while I am cynical about this draft so far, it's not a bad draft (almost feel like I'm rationalizing things again). They didn't start from a position of strength (where they were picking that is), and in taking Wicks, they are taking a guy who should move up the ladder (I hate this idea that some people have put out there that suggest Wicks will definitely reach the bigs - the potential and tools are there, but we've all seen plenty of guys with the skillsets who never reached it for one reason or another). They did make two upside picks, and Gray is the type of arm that, had he gone to college (I guess I'm assuming he signs), you can envision a scenario where he eventually develops into a Round 1 type arm if all goes well. Just seems like there's a lot of work to do with Gray, and same with Triantos. That said, two upside picks are important, so much as we've sort of talked about this as a depth chart (at least some posts), if the Cubs are right on them, that could be two impact guys. I mean, if the Cubs are right, then there's a balance of floor, upside, and organizational depth in the draft, which is all you can really hope for with the way the draft system is set up these days.