2021 MLB Actual Draft Day(s) Thread

[toonsterwu]

^^ My guess is the gap between he and Abbott is on out pitches, read Kantrovitz gave the changeup a 60, and control

 

Where do you think Wicks goes? I’ve seen him linked to Tampa Bay, could he fall that far?

 

Eric A Longenhagen: 11-20 range off hand

 

Is there a lot of reliever risk for Wicks? Or is he likely to end up a starter?

 

Kevin Goldstein: Starter package for me.

Eric A Longenhagen: lefties with cambios like that typically do well (regarding wicks)

 

Abbott's slider is at least a 55 that flashes 60. I actually think, if there's a gap from Wicks to Abbott (I could use another pitcher for this, but since I brought Abbott in, let's just go with that), I think it's upside. There's a bigger frame (there's still some concern about Abbott's frame), and Wicks has better velocity (there were games where Abbott was more 89-93 as a starter, while touching 95 when he needed it). I don't know Abbott's spin rates, so maybe that's a factor, but the combination of a plus, if not better, change and better velocity and frame is deserving of being ahead of Abbott (to be clear, I wasn't arguing for Abbott to be ahead, just not sure there' s a huge gap). I expect Abbott to go in the 2nd, particularly since he's a senior with little leverage (chances of him going back to UVA to use the extra year are slim-to-none.)

 

I do think Abbott's breaking ball is a good step ahead of Wicks, and in some respects, may make Abbott's floor a bit safer.

[toonsterwu]

I'm not so sure Abbott's breaking ball isn't better than that - it was more benefit of the doubt. The problem was, at times, his command of it slipped. The action on the slider - if he commands and locates it, it's a wipeout pitch. I think one underrated thing about Abbott is that, late in the year, when I caught him, that changeup was nasty. It hasn't been that way all year, but the changeup got better and better as the season progressed. In the combined no-hitter this year, all his stuff looked plus in that game. Admittedly, Abbott got out to a relatively slow start this year.

 

I do get the concern on Gavin Williams - is he just a big velocity hoss who doesn't have a plus secondary, but I really like the upside there.

 

Looking on Abbott right now, I see MLBpipeline has it as a "60 curve" but in their comments, it "slurves". Looks more like a slider to me, but I could be wrong. I am of the belief that the development of the change gives him a chance as a starter. In the tournament, against, uh, Tennessee, that changeup looked good. There's always the fallback of shifting him to the pen as a power lefty.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

He graduated HS early and enrolled at Florida in what should’ve been his senior year of HS so he actually does have some leverage.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

Goodness, what an amazing draft for UCLA.

[toonsterwu]

Wish UVA was getting that lucky, but UVA's lost Montgomery, will likely lose Panzini, and there's some late talk that if a team gets to Woolfolk's price, he'll pass up playing two sports at UVA (he's a 3-star QB prospect).

 

_____

 

on a totally different note, I wouldn't mind the Cubs drafting someone like Abbott (a good senior) and trying to save some money to make a run at someone in the 3rd.

 

_____

 

Edit: Didn't realize that the Cubs had scouted Panzini. Just read that Ted Lilly went to scout him. Interesting, but he wants 7 figures supposedly. I guess we could pop him in the 2nd if he gets there. I'm thinking the Orioles interest and their savings may lead them to pop him in the 2nd.

[Bertz]

Fangraphs

 

KG: It’s a safe pick, but I can’t say it’s not a good one. Most expected Wicks to go in the mid-to-late teens, and despite the Cubs mostly being attached to prep players for much of the day, in the end Wicks was too good to pass up. He’s not the most exciting of selections, but it’s a slam dunk starter package with a high floor.

 

EL: Lefties with good changeups and command tend to find some way into big league rotations and Wicks is exactly that kind of prospect. The Cubs have recently been able to coax more velo out of their prospect arms, even many of the older ones, so Wicks may be fed some magic Italian beef sandwich that makes him sit in the mid-90s.

[craig]

I know nothing, so have no option other than to trust scouting reports. 9HR, 3.7 ERA, mostly low-90's velocity while pitching only once a week fully rested, mediocre breaking ball, none of those seem very exciting or 1st-roundish at first glance.

 

Yet pretty much all of the media scouting things had him as a first rounder, usually ranking him ahead of 22 and projecting him ahead of the Cubs. Kantrovitz had him top-10.

 

So I'm willing to kinda optimistically hope that those media scouts, and the Cubs and Kantrovitz, see and project more wisely.

 

Optimist me:

1. Pitch lab has helped guys with velocity, and with breaking pitches. The two areas where Wicks needs help.

2. Pitch lab has shown limited success in conjuring up changeups for guys who didn't already have one; and limited success in enabling command for guys who didn't have it to start with. Fortunately, those two aspects somewhat beyond the reach of pitch lab seem to be the two qualities that Wicks already has.

 

Other optimistic thoughts:

1. Reference to deception and "invisiball" are appealing.

2. Smart guys who have command/control to begin with are often the guys most able to pitch-lab improve to even better stuff.

3. There was some favorable reference to spin rates and stuff, including on fastball.

4. There was a reference to NOT using the up-fastball much in college. Electing to apply a fastball that you already have and can already locate up in the zone might perhaps be the easiest new tool to add to a guy's attack plan?

[Outshined_One]

Round 2 kicks off at 12 PM central time. Here is a list of MLB.com's best remaining prospects.

 

Admittedly, I'm kind of pulling for the Cubs to pop Andrew Abbott after the conversation that was just had in this thread comparing him with Wicks. 8-) I've been of the opinion that the Cubs' system is sorely lacking in quality SP prospects (although the RP talent is awesome), so grabbing some high floor types with a bit of upside would be a nice way to bolster the farm.

 

Anyone care to share their wishlists/unheralded types for today?

[CubinNY]

Fangraphs

 

KG: It’s a safe pick, but I can’t say it’s not a good one.

 

I hate double negatives. The tepid approvals are actually making me more optimistic. Even if he is a 3rd -5th starter, it saves the Cubs from giving contracts to washed-up veterans making way too much money... in theory.

[jersey cubs fan]

I'm getting Jose Quintana vibes, maybe not specifically with stuff, but with the "Cubs are desperate for guys who can competently throw innings at the major league level and this guy theoretically fits the bill but almost assuredly won't actually be a good starter over time."

[CubinNY]

I'm getting Jose Quintana vibes, maybe not specifically with stuff, but with the "Cubs are desperate for guys who can competently throw innings at the major league level and this guy theoretically fits the bill but almost assuredly won't actually be a good starter over time."

Maybe a left-handed Kyle Hendricks? Too much?

 

https://www.minorleagueball.com/2017/10/12/16465106/prospect-retrospective-kyle-hendricks-rhp-chicago-cubs

[Bertz]

Baseball America guy

 

[Bertz]

One thing that's nice about Wicks, and I'm hoping we get more of this with trade deadline deals, is he helps with the lull in prospects between the guys currently at AA, who should hit next year, and the teenagers at Myrtle Beach who will likely have ETAs of 2024+. Right now, here's what we're looking at as far as relevant prospects in the system and their arrival at Wrigley

 

2021 - No top 20 guys, but some interesting relievers and depth like Ben Leeper, Manny Rodriguez and Alfonso Rivas

 

1H 2022 - Brennen Davis and Chris Morel, and likely some more relievers, most notably Ethan Roberts

 

2H 2022 - Likely Miguel Amaya and Brailyn Marquez, who would have had late 2021 ETAs if not for injury, as well as Chase Strumpf

 

2023 - Jordan Wicks is now the most relevant name here, because South Bend has been extremely disappointing. Inevitably some of the arms that have disappointed either with performance (Jensen, Bain, Carraway) or injury (Franklin, Thompson, Mcavene, Clarke) will pop and be on the radar by this point, but clearly the collective expected value from that crew is much lower than it was 4 months ago. Roederer and Velazquez have a chance as well

 

2024 - This is probably when we start seeing all of the current teenagers hit Wrigley, but good luck trying to accurately place them in any sort of real order this far out

[Outshined_One]

Hm. Wondering if the Pirates took Davis with the expectation that Solemeto would be waiting for them at the start of the 2nd. He's not supposed to be a difficult sign, but he has some leverage.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Cubs draft prep 3B James Triantos - NamedLikedMaddux/IvyFutures had it nailed.

[TarzanJoeWallis]

What is the story with Will Taylor? Keith Law said in his mock that he heard the Cubs were really in on him but that he would be long gone by the time they picked. He wasn’t taken at all. Is he considered too tough of a sign, did he get injured, or was Law just too high on him?

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Hm. Wondering if the Pirates took Davis with the expectation that Solemeto would be waiting for them at the start of the 2nd. He's not supposed to be a difficult sign, but he has some leverage.

 

Teams with lots of pool space do try to push these guys down (go ahead and tell teams in the 20s you've agreed on a bonus that's higher than their slot) which I'm sure the Pirates did with Solemeto but also, I'm sure they had a few guys they were trying to do this with.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

What is the story with Will Taylor? Keith Law said in his mock that he heard the Cubs were really in on him but that he would be long gone by the time they picked. He wasn’t taken at all. Is he considered too tough of a sign, did he get injured, or was Law just too high on him?

 

Tough sign, committed to Clemson for baseball and football.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[Bertz]

Longenhagen

 

Triantos is on tape facing just shy of 350 pitches throughout the course of the summer/fall 2020 showcase season. He puts 70 of them in play and only swings and misses six times. That’s the most extreme BIP-to-Whiff ratio I’ve encountered while perusing players on Synergy. It’s becoming more common for teams to sign high school players to over-slot deals based largely on measurable feel for contact. Nick Yorke (Boston), Thomas Saggese (Texas), Joe Naranjo (Cleveland), and Tyler Freeman (also Cleveland) are examples that come to mind immediately, and there are many others. Triantos is in this sort of player bucket. He’s a below-average athlete and his swing has a non-traditional look, but he has remarkable feel for contact and enough physicality for pro ball. He’s a North Carolina commit, too, so it’s not as though this kid is coming out of absolutely nowhere. Triantos is a bucket strider whose front side flies open during his swing, and he swings with a lot of effort. It’s not a traditional-looking swing and it appears as though Triantos is making some mechanical concessions to swing as hard as he does, but he also has fantastic vertical plate coverage and shows no signs of swing-and-miss issues despite his traditionally unsound in-the-box footwork.

 

Like Saggese, Triantos makes routine plays at shortstop but he isn’t a superlative athlete, and he doesn’t have all that much room left on a frame that has added a ton of strength between 2019 PG Junior National and the summer of 2020. He also had a private workout at the Rangers’ stadium. Though he is listed as a switch-hitter in some places, Triantos only hit right-handed last summer. I think he’s strictly better than Saggese and more comparable to Yorke. Yorke got $2.7 million, which I thought was excessive, but Triantos feels likely to come off the board fairly early as this type of player is more sought after now than in the past.

[Outshined_One]

Ah yes, time for the yearly reminder that everyone else in the Cubs' division gets an extra draft pick because they are actual mid-market teams, even though the Cubs spend like one...

[Hrubes20]

I dig the Triantos pick. Nice.

[Hrubes20]

horsefeathering Pirates. They are destroying this draft so far.

[jersey cubs fan]

Ah yes, time for the yearly reminder that everyone else in the Cubs' division gets an extra draft pick because they are actual mid-market teams, even though the Cubs spend like one...

Yeah, but the Cubs purposely tank so often it forces those other teams to actually go for it and trade those prospects for more expensive veterans.

 

[Outshined_One]

horsefeathering Pirates. They are destroying this draft so far.

 

There's no way in hell they're going to be able to sign Solemeto, White, and Chandler, right?

 

Right???