Week 15: Bears/Vikings Part 2

[UMFan83]

For some reason, I looked at the Bears playoff scenarios. That 7th seed looks like its going to come down to the Cardinals, Vikings or Bears. The Bears winning this week would obviously put them ahead of the Vikings in the standings.

 

As for the tiebreaker, a win this week would:

 

1) tie them H2H record

2) Bears would move to 2-3 vs. the division, and the Vikings drop to 3-2. So Bears would lose the tiebreaker unless they beat GB and the Vikings lost to Detroit...which couldn't happen in a scenario where the Bears win this week and they ultimately tie in the standings, so the Vikings basically are going to win the tiebreaker

 

Now Arizona.... their remaining games are Philly, SF and @ LAR. Fairly difficult, and they'd need to lose at least 2 of those games to tie the Bears if they go 2-1. In terms of tiebreakers:

 

1) did not play H2H

2) Cardinals are 5-4 against the NFC, Bears are 5-5. In the scenario where the Bears go WWL (knowing that a MIN win is needed and its more likely they beat JAX than GB), that would but them at 6-6, with the Cardinals at 6-6

3) Common games are: DET, Carolina, LAR, NYG. Right now the Bears are 3-2 in those games, the Rams are 1-3 so the Bears win the tiebreaker.

 

So much better position vs. Arizona in terms of tiebreakers.

 

Most likely scenario that leads the Bears into the playoffs (IMO)

 

Bears go WWL (loss to GB)

Vikings go LLW (loss to NO)

Cardinals go 1-2 against their remaining schedule (doesnt matter which games)

[minnesotacubsfan]

I feel like we are past the point where we will get a decent shot at one of the top 4 qbs w/o a trade, so just win baby

[UMFan83]

I feel like we are past the point where we will get a decent shot at one of the top 4 qbs w/o a trade, so just win baby

 

Really? I keep seeing all 4 of them going in the top 10-12 of mock drafts

 

Teams that I could definitely see picking a QB that will probably finish ahead of the Bears if they go 8-8: Jets, Jaguars, Panthers, Broncos, Giants, 49ers, Patriots, WFT

 

Teams that could pick QB but less likely: Falcons, Cowboys (if they dont keep Dak), Eagles (if they dont like Hurts), Lions, Vikings, Raiders

 

Teams that definitely won't pick a QB: Bengals, Texans, Chargers, Cardinals

[minnesotacubsfan]

I feel like we are past the point where we will get a decent shot at one of the top 4 qbs w/o a trade, so just win baby

 

Really? I keep seeing all 4 of them going in the top 10-12 of mock drafts

 

Teams that I could definitely see picking a QB that will probably finish ahead of the Bears if they go 8-8: Jets, Jaguars, Panthers, Broncos, Giants, 49ers, Patriots, WFT

 

Teams that could pick QB but less likely: Falcons, Cowboys (if they dont keep Dak), Eagles (if they dont like Hurts), Lions, Vikings, Raiders

 

Teams that definitely won't pick a QB: Bengals, Texans, Chargers, Cardinals

 

well, yes, that's the concern I guess, and has always been the concern since early Nov: there are plenty of bad teams needing to draft QB's and more then a few worse then the Bears. That's all I mean by a "decent" shot at one w/o a trade. If the Bears were to finish 6-10, Jets, Jags, Panthers, 49'rs would all likely still be ahead of them. Cowboys, Eagles, and Falcons as well.

 

 

I think the Broncos will stick with Lock for at least another season FWIW

[WrigleyField 22]

For some reason, I looked at the Bears playoff scenarios. That 7th seed looks like its going to come down to the Cardinals, Vikings or Bears. The Bears winning this week would obviously put them ahead of the Vikings in the standings.

 

As for the tiebreaker, a win this week would:

 

1) tie them H2H record

2) Bears would move to 2-3 vs. the division, and the Vikings drop to 3-2. So Bears would lose the tiebreaker unless they beat GB and the Vikings lost to Detroit...which couldn't happen in a scenario where the Bears win this week and they ultimately tie in the standings, so the Vikings basically are going to win the tiebreaker

 

Now Arizona.... their remaining games are Philly, SF and @ LAR. Fairly difficult, and they'd need to lose at least 2 of those games to tie the Bears if they go 2-1. In terms of tiebreakers:

 

1) did not play H2H

2) Cardinals are 5-4 against the NFC, Bears are 5-5. In the scenario where the Bears go WWL (knowing that a MIN win is needed and its more likely they beat JAX than GB), that would but them at 6-6, with the Cardinals at 6-6

3) Common games are: DET, Carolina, LAR, NYG. Right now the Bears are 3-2 in those games, the Rams are 1-3 so the Bears win the tiebreaker.

 

So much better position vs. Arizona in terms of tiebreakers.

 

Most likely scenario that leads the Bears into the playoffs (IMO)

 

Bears go WWL (loss to GB)

Vikings go LLW (loss to NO)

Cardinals go 1-2 against their remaining schedule (doesnt matter which games)

I suppose it's due to the 7th seed now, but discussing playoff opportunities with a team like this is kind of wild. If this was pre-2020 is there some outside narrow shot where we're sitll talking about the 6th seed and making the playoffs?

[UMFan83]

For some reason, I looked at the Bears playoff scenarios. That 7th seed looks like its going to come down to the Cardinals, Vikings or Bears. The Bears winning this week would obviously put them ahead of the Vikings in the standings.

 

As for the tiebreaker, a win this week would:

 

1) tie them H2H record

2) Bears would move to 2-3 vs. the division, and the Vikings drop to 3-2. So Bears would lose the tiebreaker unless they beat GB and the Vikings lost to Detroit...which couldn't happen in a scenario where the Bears win this week and they ultimately tie in the standings, so the Vikings basically are going to win the tiebreaker

 

Now Arizona.... their remaining games are Philly, SF and @ LAR. Fairly difficult, and they'd need to lose at least 2 of those games to tie the Bears if they go 2-1. In terms of tiebreakers:

 

1) did not play H2H

2) Cardinals are 5-4 against the NFC, Bears are 5-5. In the scenario where the Bears go WWL (knowing that a MIN win is needed and its more likely they beat JAX than GB), that would but them at 6-6, with the Cardinals at 6-6

3) Common games are: DET, Carolina, LAR, NYG. Right now the Bears are 3-2 in those games, the Rams are 1-3 so the Bears win the tiebreaker.

 

So much better position vs. Arizona in terms of tiebreakers.

 

Most likely scenario that leads the Bears into the playoffs (IMO)

 

Bears go WWL (loss to GB)

Vikings go LLW (loss to NO)

Cardinals go 1-2 against their remaining schedule (doesnt matter which games)

I suppose it's due to the 7th seed now, but discussing playoff opportunities with a team like this is kind of wild. If this was pre-2020 is there some outside narrow shot where we're sitll talking about the 6th seed and making the playoffs?

 

We'd still have a shot mostly because we own the H2H over the 6 seed TB and are 2 GB with 3 left, but mostly we'd be lamenting about blowing that Lions game.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Yeah, same. At this point you've messed up your draft position badly enough that you might as well make the playoffs, even if you're the worst team there.

 

Make it as the 7th seed, Mitchy T leads us to an upset in the wild card round (over the Packers?), then has an absolutely terrible performance in a blowout loss in the second round. Maximum chaos.

[minnesotacubsfan]

Yeah, same. At this point you've messed up your draft position badly enough that you might as well make the playoffs, even if you're the worst team there.

 

Make it as the 7th seed, Mitchy T leads us to an upset in the wild card round (over the Packers?), then has an absolutely terrible performance in a blowout loss in the second round. Maximum chaos.

 

 

Packers will likely have the bye, Saints maybe Rams. So, upset the Saints (which isn't impossible) but get blown out by GB.

[UMFan83]

Yeah, same. At this point you've messed up your draft position badly enough that you might as well make the playoffs, even if you're the worst team there.

 

Make it as the 7th seed, Mitchy T leads us to an upset in the wild card round (over the Packers?), then has an absolutely terrible performance in a blowout loss in the second round. Maximum chaos.

 

That would certainly be chaos and would probably ensure Nagy and Pace are retained another year, and Mitch is given an incentive laden 'prove it' contract with the QB position not addressed.

 

But I agree that while it still makes more sense for the Bears to lose, at a certain point you have to just suck it up and root for some short term enjoyment.

[jersey cubs fan]

Yeah, same. At this point you've messed up your draft position badly enough that you might as well make the playoffs, even if you're the worst team there.

 

Make it as the 7th seed, Mitchy T leads us to an upset in the wild card round (over the Packers?), then has an absolutely terrible performance in a blowout loss in the second round. Maximum chaos.

 

That would certainly be chaos and would probably ensure Nagy and Pace are retained another year, and Mitch is given an incentive laden 'prove it' contract with the QB position not addressed.

 

But I agree that while it still makes more sense for the Bears to lose, at a certain point you have to just suck it up and root for some short term enjoyment.

Yeah man, it's tough to admit but sometimes we have to actually root for the teams we enjoy to win the games they are playing.

[raw]

Conversely, if the Bears lose....for every Broncos (BUF), Lions (TEN), Patriots (MIA), 49ers (DAL), and/or Giants (CLE) win, the Bears move up an additional spot in the draft order, as they'll have the easiest SOS of the 6-8 teams at that point (eh, Giants/Bears will be close and I'm not doing the math right now). So, a loss could mean a draft slot as high as 10 ...while a win could put them at the projected 20th pick, depending on playoff outcomes.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

No Jaylon on Sunday.

[Old Style]

Yeah, same. At this point you've messed up your draft position badly enough that you might as well make the playoffs, even if you're the worst team there.

 

Make it as the 7th seed, Mitchy T leads us to an upset in the wild card round (over the Packers?), then has an absolutely terrible performance in a blowout loss in the second round. Maximum chaos.

 

That would certainly be chaos and would probably ensure Nagy and Pace are retained another year, and Mitch is given an incentive laden 'prove it' contract with the QB position not addressed.

 

But I agree that while it still makes more sense for the Bears to lose, at a certain point you have to just suck it up and root for some short term enjoyment.

Yeah man, it's tough to admit but sometimes we have to actually root for the teams we enjoy to win the games they are playing.

I admit that before last week I wanted us to lose out so we could clean house and maximize our draft spot. After last week I now want the Bears to either win out or lose out. No half assing it anymore. Pick one direct and go 100%. Lol.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Conversely, if the Bears lose....for every Broncos (BUF), Lions (TEN), Patriots (MIA), 49ers (DAL), and/or Giants (CLE) win, the Bears move up an additional spot in the draft order, as they'll have the easiest SOS of the 6-8 teams at that point (eh, Giants/Bears will be close and I'm not doing the math right now). So, a loss could mean a draft slot as high as 10 ...while a win could put them at the projected 20th pick, depending on playoff outcomes.

 

Is the difference between 10th and 20th that big? You're starting to get away from the tail of the bell curve there.

[WrigleyField 22]

Conversely, if the Bears lose....for every Broncos (BUF), Lions (TEN), Patriots (MIA), 49ers (DAL), and/or Giants (CLE) win, the Bears move up an additional spot in the draft order, as they'll have the easiest SOS of the 6-8 teams at that point (eh, Giants/Bears will be close and I'm not doing the math right now). So, a loss could mean a draft slot as high as 10 ...while a win could put them at the projected 20th pick, depending on playoff outcomes.

 

Is the difference between 10th and 20th that big? You're starting to get away from the tail of the bell curve there.

At a high level, no I dont think it's historically a big difference. But something like the traditional trade value chart would tell you it's pretty substantial.

[minnesotacubsfan]

No Jaylon on Sunday.

 

 

he's got 15 pass defenses on the year. I know gooney has his take on Pace, but the man can draft. Just not QB

 

it sucks he's out this Sunday

[ChiCubsFan]

He’s been terrific as a rookie and is a big loss vs a team with 2 stud WRs.

[raw]

Conversely, if the Bears lose....for every Broncos (BUF), Lions (TEN), Patriots (MIA), 49ers (DAL), and/or Giants (CLE) win, the Bears move up an additional spot in the draft order, as they'll have the easiest SOS of the 6-8 teams at that point (eh, Giants/Bears will be close and I'm not doing the math right now). So, a loss could mean a draft slot as high as 10 ...while a win could put them at the projected 20th pick, depending on playoff outcomes.

 

Is the difference between 10th and 20th that big? You're starting to get away from the tail of the bell curve there.

 

Eh, not really. I'm a big proponent of premium positions in the top half of the first round. QB, OT, pass rushers, really good interior OL (Quentin Nelson types). There's typically anywhere from 3-7 blue chip prospects at these positions in a draft. Throw in non-bluechip QBs (Zach Wilson for instance) that go early because their such a premium and the blue chippers are gone by 8-10 in most cases. After that, it becomes more of a scheme fit thing.

[raw]

To be fair, Jaylon Johnson got destroyed in the last Vikings game, as did Skrine who will also be out. To be fair to Johnson though, Pagano seemed to be in a stupid phase a few weeks ago where the defense was not even the least bit aggressive.

[UK]

Lose out, clean house, and get the best OT. Mitch sucks against Minny and GB. Have Foles back for one more year and let the new regime see how poorly constructed this roster is.

[jersey cubs fan]

No Jaylon on Sunday.

 

 

he's got 15 pass defenses on the year. I know gooney has his take on Pace, but the man can draft. Just not QB

 

it sucks he's out this Sunday

What do you think goony’s take on Pace is, exactly?

[raw]

Lose out, clean house, and get the best OT. Mitch sucks against Minny and GB. Have Foles back for one more year and let the new regime see how poorly constructed this roster is.

 

Eh. The Bears play the Jags next week, they aren't going to lose out because are tanking harder and far less talented. I don't want them to draft the best OT or have Foles back one more year. And if the new regime needs to actually see an entire season to see how poorly constructed the roster is, then I don't know if that's the right choice for a regime. Draft a QB, don't waste anymore seasons without at least potentially having one.

[minnesotacubsfan]

No Jaylon on Sunday.

 

 

he's got 15 pass defenses on the year. I know gooney has his take on Pace, but the man can draft. Just not QB

 

it sucks he's out this Sunday

What do you think goony’s take on Pace is, exactly?

1) I thought you were gooney once (or was that Sofa?

 

2) I read this as you feel he drafts poorly (as well as his FA faux pas):

 

"But I think he's been hamstrung by Pace's roster miscues. I could see Nagy learning from his mistakes and doing better down the road, whereas I think Pace is what he is."

[raw]

Yay Bears!

 

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[Hairyducked Idiot]

Holy crap, that opening drive. Maybe it really was the playcalling?!