The Bears still have to play games (I guess it's Packers week too)

[minnesotacubsfan]

 

Was curious as to how valuable Mack would be, to that end, started looking at some statistics, found, Leonard Floyd. horsefeathering Leonard Floyd is arguably having a better season, its depressing, Mack is longer the elite defensive player every offense has to plan around. Really, do not believe he has much trade value also found horsefeathering GB has 12 sacks all season. They had only 9 going into the Bears game, just underlines the joke the Bears call an OL.

 

Floyd always had talent, but by now its pretty clear that Pagano needs to be coaching dominoes, not an NFL team. Everything that man touches dies

 

 

On the other hand, Roquan Smith is leading the league in tackles for loss, tied for second in solo tackles, that's something positive.

 

if only we had a young EDGE rusher to pair with him for the next 5 years

 

 

horsefeathers

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Another great thing about drafting QB and OL is that they last forever. It's way better value than drafting a position where you'll get 3-4 good years max.

[minnesotacubsfan]

Another great thing about drafting QB and OL is that they last forever. It's way better value than drafting a position where you'll get 3-4 good years max.

 

I cant tell what's serious and whats joking around with this post. sure, OL can last many years, but QB? Not for the Bears. Sure, GB can have generational talent. Pittsburgh too! even a second tier small market team like NO can pull that rabbit out of a hat. But not the Bears. Never, ever the Bears.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Another great thing about drafting QB and OL is that they last forever. It's way better value than drafting a position where you'll get 3-4 good years max.

 

I cant tell what's serious and whats joking around with this post. sure, OL can last many years, but QB? Not for the Bears. Sure, GB can have generational talent. Pittsburgh too! even a second tier small market team like NO can pull that rabbit out of a hat. But not the Bears. Never, ever the Bears.

 

Well, I'm kind of operating under the assumption that the Bears aren't under some sort of curse that will never let them hit on a QB pick. If they are, then yeah, we'll have to do something different

[minnesotacubsfan]

Another great thing about drafting QB and OL is that they last forever. It's way better value than drafting a position where you'll get 3-4 good years max.

 

I cant tell what's serious and whats joking around with this post. sure, OL can last many years, but QB? Not for the Bears. Sure, GB can have generational talent. Pittsburgh too! even a second tier small market team like NO can pull that rabbit out of a hat. But not the Bears. Never, ever the Bears.

 

Well, I'm kind of operating under the assumption that the Bears aren't under some sort of curse that will never let them hit on a QB pick. If they are, then yeah, we'll have to do something different

 

 

my friend, the curse is nothing ghoulish, it is simply accepted incompetency

[gflore34]

Another great thing about drafting QB and OL is that they last forever. It's way better value than drafting a position where you'll get 3-4 good years max.

 

I cant tell what's serious and whats joking around with this post. sure, OL can last many years, but QB? Not for the Bears. Sure, GB can have generational talent. Pittsburgh too! even a second tier small market team like NO can pull that rabbit out of a hat. But not the Bears. Never, ever the Bears.

 

Well, I'm kind of operating under the assumption that the Bears aren't under some sort of curse that will never let them hit on a QB pick. If they are, then yeah, we'll have to do something different

 

They are not cursed, someday it'll happen maybe, not in our lifetimes, maybe not even this century but, it'll happen.

[WrigleyField 22]

OL lasting forever if a bad adage that should die. Theres 5 of them so we remember the guys who stand the test of time like a Whitworth, but he's a unicorn. 8 years is a really good run for a OL. 6 is still pretty decent. Usually it's like 6 years of good play then 2 where they get by on reputation.

 

Sure it's longer than a RB, but about up there with any other non QB-RB or specialist position.

[jumbo]

It of course just depends on circumstance. If they have a cloud of 4 that are very close maybe you consider trading down 3 for an extra mid round pick from 15 to 18.

 

Later in the draft, popping on a trade up and parting with a 6th, where they probably have 3-4 sixths, knock yourself out. Either way, I don't think trading down is going to dramatically improve their draft strength.

 

If they want to actually improve draft capital it's by figuring out which vets, who could be gone in a year anyways, might net something. Thats how you are more likely to significantly alter your draft capital. Mack and Fuller are probably the only significant guys who might net you something interesting. So gotta figure out your price. Anyone else might get you some late picks... Just a matter of taking what you could get if you might be cutting them anyways (see, Hicks)

 

I tend to discredit the later round picks so much that I wouldn't even think to package them to move up, but I also didn't realize they had any additional picks in those later rounds. That being said, what would (2) 6th round picks get you? I cant imagine too much, 5 slots in the 3rd?

Per "the chart" 2 high sixths might get you one slot in the mid first round. Realistically no one want two sixth though. They'll just demand a mid 4th which is the same point value (which the Bears happen to lack). In the mid 1st, 3 slots would be like a late third though. Eta misunderstood the original question.. In the third it could be 5 spots. If we're talking comp picks which are like high sevenths, which about adds up. I personally don't like that as a trade up though. 3 for 1 trades are icky to me in the middle rounds.

 

Nothing is official by they project to have 2 6ths and a 7th from comp picks. And +1 from Shaheen and (-1) from Piniero, both a 6th or 7th, so roughly net even.

 

I think Over The Cap shows the comp pick limit hitting after the Bears second 6th rounder, so no 7th round comp pick. I heard that Shaheen being resigned triggered his conditional pick to go from 7th to 6th (no idea how to verify that). Piniero is to Oak. So they would have

1

2

3

4 -> to Minnesota

5

6

6 from Miami

6 Comp

6 Comp

[jumbo]

I still kind of like Nagy. I think the problems with his playcalling are in the same vein as fans always thinking there's some perfect usage order that will turn a crappy bullpen into a good one. I'm not saying he doesn't pull out some weird ones once in awhile, but he's trying to work around some major personnel issues.

 

Pace is the one I have a problem with. He has no sense of value. He figures out which player is "his guy" and then overpays for him. Then we all act shocked when the roster is thin or has glaring holes, but that's a direct result of him overpaying for stuff. Even if you think Trubisky is your guy, giving away three picks to move up that one spot is insane. Mack is great but he's not worth two firsts *and* a huge contract. There were more crappy but not completely worthless QBs than jobs this offseason, but he still traded a 4th for Foles. Etc., etc.

 

Plus this last offseason just didn't make sense. Signing Quinn, making your biggest investment in OL be some random retread castoff, letting Patterson be your RB3. That's some crazy stuff.

 

But since I'm not interested in keeping Pace, you have to ship Nagy too, because I'm not saddling the new guy with a legacy HC.

 

Well said

 

A couple awesome Pace overpays (trades with actual picks)

 

Bears get - Trubisky #2

Bears give -

Solomon Thomas #3(could have been DeShaun)

Alvin Kamara (2017 3rd)

Tedric Thompson (2017 4th picked Eddie Jackson one pick after this pick by trading up)

Fred Warner (2018 3rd rounder)

 

Bears get - Anthony Miller (2018 2nd)

Bears give -

Antonio Callaway (2018 4th)

Mecole Hardman (2019 2nd)

 

Of course there are lots of over draft examples -

2020 Kmet

2019 Montgomery, Ridley, really you could say the whole draft

2018 A Miller,

2017 Trubisky, Shaheen

2016 Floyd (I thought we were trading up for Tunsil)

2015 White, Grasu

 

I can't fault him for 4th round on, he's had some really good picks. But he does not value picks appropriately and also overpays in FA, notably Graham and Quinn here recently.

[WrigleyField 22]

 

I tend to discredit the later round picks so much that I wouldn't even think to package them to move up, but I also didn't realize they had any additional picks in those later rounds. That being said, what would (2) 6th round picks get you? I cant imagine too much, 5 slots in the 3rd?

Per "the chart" 2 high sixths might get you one slot in the mid first round. Realistically no one want two sixth though. They'll just demand a mid 4th which is the same point value (which the Bears happen to lack). In the mid 1st, 3 slots would be like a late third though. Eta misunderstood the original question.. In the third it could be 5 spots. If we're talking comp picks which are like high sevenths, which about adds up. I personally don't like that as a trade up though. 3 for 1 trades are icky to me in the middle rounds.

 

Nothing is official by they project to have 2 6ths and a 7th from comp picks. And +1 from Shaheen and (-1) from Piniero, both a 6th or 7th, so roughly net even.

 

I think Over The Cap shows the comp pick limit hitting after the Bears second 6th rounder, so no 7th round comp pick. I heard that Shaheen being resigned triggered his conditional pick to go from 7th to 6th (no idea how to verify that). Piniero is to Oak. So they would have

1

2

3

4 -> to Minnesota

5

6

6 from Miami

6 Comp

6 Comp

I see that now. I was looking at the cancellation chart before which doesn't show the limit/cap... All comp picks done by Rd 6 is really odd. Normally you see a couple miss the cutoff. Maybe teams are really getting smart about maximizing comp pick value?

 

https://overthecap.com/draft/

 

The list does appear to be slightly out of date. For instance Clinton Dix shouldn't qualify anymore I believe as he ended up being cut. Presuming there could be a few more updates, KPLs pick is up there as one of the next they project to count. So 3 still seems like a decent shot. And while they show a 6th for KPL thats probably borderline 7th.

Edited December 2, 2020 by WrigleyField 22

[WrigleyField 22]

I still kind of like Nagy. I think the problems with his playcalling are in the same vein as fans always thinking there's some perfect usage order that will turn a crappy bullpen into a good one. I'm not saying he doesn't pull out some weird ones once in awhile, but he's trying to work around some major personnel issues.

 

Pace is the one I have a problem with. He has no sense of value. He figures out which player is "his guy" and then overpays for him. Then we all act shocked when the roster is thin or has glaring holes, but that's a direct result of him overpaying for stuff. Even if you think Trubisky is your guy, giving away three picks to move up that one spot is insane. Mack is great but he's not worth two firsts *and* a huge contract. There were more crappy but not completely worthless QBs than jobs this offseason, but he still traded a 4th for Foles. Etc., etc.

 

Plus this last offseason just didn't make sense. Signing Quinn, making your biggest investment in OL be some random retread castoff, letting Patterson be your RB3. That's some crazy stuff.

 

But since I'm not interested in keeping Pace, you have to ship Nagy too, because I'm not saddling the new guy with a legacy HC.

 

Well said

 

A couple awesome Pace overpays (trades with actual picks)

 

Bears get - Trubisky #2

Bears give -

Solomon Thomas #3(could have been DeShaun)

Alvin Kamara (2017 3rd)

Tedric Thompson (2017 4th picked Eddie Jackson one pick after this pick by trading up)

Fred Warner (2018 3rd rounder)

 

Bears get - Anthony Miller (2018 2nd)

Bears give -

Antonio Callaway (2018 4th)

Mecole Hardman (2019 2nd)

 

Of course there are lots of over draft examples -

2020 Kmet

2019 Montgomery, Ridley, really you could say the whole draft

2018 A Miller,

2017 Trubisky, Shaheen

2016 Floyd (I thought we were trading up for Tunsil)

2015 White, Grasu

 

I can't fault him for 4th round on, he's had some really good picks. But he does not value picks appropriately and also overpays in FA, notably Graham and Quinn here recently.

I cant necessarily get behind the overpay complaint too much. This past off season was bad. In prior seasons though it does seem like he prioritized ascending players rather than paying for past performance. Now obviously you'll miss on those as well, but he's generally targeted the right type rather than just going after the most pedigreed guys in FA. Granted you'd rather develop and pay your own guys, so FA is never going to be truly efficient cap spending, but Graham and Quinn are probably the most egregious paying for downside moves.

[UMFan83]

Even if you think Trubisky is your guy, giving away three picks to move up that one spot is insane.

 

There are obviously several things that bug me about that move, but what you said makes sense. If you are willing to give up a pretty decent haul to move up 1 spot on the off chance someone took Mitch at 2, that says that Pace had Mitch ahead of Watson and Mahomes by a significant margin. If they were close in his evaluation, he takes the risk that no one takes Mitch at 2, and if they do lives with one of the other guys. Ridiculous

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Even if you think Trubisky is your guy, giving away three picks to move up that one spot is insane.

 

There are obviously several things that bug me about that move, but what you said makes sense. If you are willing to give up a pretty decent haul to move up 1 spot on the off chance someone took Mitch at 2, that says that Pace had Mitch ahead of Watson and Mahomes by a significant margin. If they were close in his evaluation, he takes the risk that no one takes Mitch at 2, and if they do lives with one of the other guys. Ridiculous

 

Pace just doesn't think that way. He identifies someone as the one he wants, and then he pays whatever it takes.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Even if you think Trubisky is your guy, giving away three picks to move up that one spot is insane.

 

There are obviously several things that bug me about that move, but what you said makes sense. If you are willing to give up a pretty decent haul to move up 1 spot on the off chance someone took Mitch at 2, that says that Pace had Mitch ahead of Watson and Mahomes by a significant margin. If they were close in his evaluation, he takes the risk that no one takes Mitch at 2, and if they do lives with one of the other guys. Ridiculous

 

Pace just doesn't think that way. He identifies someone as the one he wants, and then he pays whatever it takes.

Yeah, it is really tiring knowing that he is entirely inflexible with his 1st round picks. For the last 4 seasons I was hollering from the mountaintop to trade back and stack chips but when he gets his jolly old "conviction" on a player, he's gonna do whatever it takes to get him. We were in perfect position each year to trade back and add several picks. He always acts like he couldn't find a partner but thats a load of horsefeathers. He just doesn't want to lose out on his guy.

 

His first round valuations have been such horsefeathering horsefeathers.

 

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

[WrigleyField 22]

Boo trading back just for the sake of collecting picks. I get lasering in on a target isn't great, but fans always like the idea of extra picks and then inevitably just hate the picks. It's basically the "why dont thet make the whole plane out of the black box" form of draft analysis.

[We Got The Whole 9]

Boo trading back just for the sake of collecting picks. I get lasering in on a target isn't great, but fans always like the idea of extra picks and then inevitably just hate the picks. It's basically the "why dont thet make the whole plane out of the black box" form of draft analysis.

 

Fair. Although I disagree with the 'inevitably hate the picks' part. Some teams consistently stack em and find multiple starters; others just draft bad as they usually do. I just have never felt like there was a player we absolutely had to have in our range over the last few drafts. Weve had plenty of holes to fill and I'd rather have had more bullets to fire off.

 

His opposite philosophy from mine has really grinded my gears.

 

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I'm fine with not trading down. I would like to stop trading up.

[WrigleyField 22]

I'm fine with not trading down. I would like to stop trading up.

Never moving at all is dumb. Unfortunately there's no hard and fast rule.

 

Take the Trubisky pick. At the time I'd have assumed he must have been far and away their top QB. When you have the rare opportunity of a top 3 pick, if you have an opportunity for a QB you take it and if there's only one you do so aggressively IMO.

 

Since then there was the article that came out that revisited that draft and apparently Mahomes and Trubisky, along with a few others, were all very closely bunched for the Bears. The 3 pick insurance policy for 1 spot when you have 2 QBs you like very closely? Real dumb risk management there if that was in fact the board. That's doing the opposite of what you should do- trust your evaluation.

 

In areas where you may see real divisions of your board, explore trading up or fielding the trade down calls.

 

All that said I of course have some complaints about Paces draft management. As to acquiring picks I think the best way to do that is through clever management of the comp pick system and knowing when to trade away vets. Trading up or down with picks is rarely inherently good or bad, though I do have a preference for even pick swaps i.e. 2 for 2 if you're trading up and am not particularly fond of 3 for 1 trade-up swaps.