2020-21 Offseason Top Prospects Lists

[toonsterwu]

I'm actually not all that enthused about the depth of the system. I guess I'm still waiting to see if Strumpf's bat is that elite. There's big curiosity on Preciado now, considering Longenhagen's take really was high. I am rather big on Kohl Franklin and think he might just be a little under ... well, not undervalued (as 6 is high) but maybe under-appreciated. Of course, with 2020 being what it was, it's hard to really know right now. I think Patterson might deserve to be ranked higher.

 

That said, in comparing it to the Cubs depth of recent past ... well, yeah, it's deeper. It's funny, the end of the Hendry/Wilken era focused a lot on the number of guys at the top that struggled, but off the top, it seems like a decent amount of guys ended up having some time in the bigs. They just didn't develop top level talent. I think we might be in a better position than those years, as it feels like the ceiling of some of the depth is higher, but there's so many guys so far away that it's just hard to really get a grasp, particularly after 2020.

 

Anyhow, I was running some stuff and while waiting, I was looking at clips of Brennen Davis' swing from 2019. Boy, I really want to find something to pick apart there, and obviously, highlights are a bit limiting, but the swing looks so good that I just have a hard time not putting him first. Marquez's relative ceiling might be greater, but boy, if that swing holds for Davis and he can deal with the off-speed stuff at higher levels ... put it this way, for the Cubs to open a 2nd window sooner than later, it feels like Davis has to be real enough that he's a star you build around (since so many guys are so far away) or he's a guy who helps net a critical package (preferably the former, but I guess you never rule out anything).

 

The guy from 11-30 that I'm really hoping on/curious with is Chris Clarke. The curve and sinker are fine, but curious if there's been enough development for him to make it as a starter in the upper levels, or if he'll get fast-tracked for the pen.

 

I'm still holding out some hope, however small, that Justin Steele can have a nice run as a major league pen arm. Not sure why I keep holding out hope on that one.

 

Wasn't there another Rodriguez? Not Manuel, but I can't think of it right now.

[craig]

....Wasn't there another Rodriguez? Not Manuel, but I can't think of it right now.

 

Benjamin Rodriguez. Video showed him throwing 98.

[CubsWin]

....Wasn't there another Rodriguez? Not Manuel, but I can't think of it right now.

 

Benjamin Rodriguez. Video showed him throwing 98.

That's the one. Interestingly, Longenhagen said this about him back when he was throwing 10 mph slower:

 

Also Benjamin Rodriguez as a name of note to watch grow and develop the next two years. Super lanky teenage pitching prospect with a clean delivery. Fastball 87-90 in my looks. Purely someone to follow because the body and delivery are good.

You... you're good, you.

 

As nice as 98 off of flat ground is, velocity isn't everything. Rodriguez has been putting up better numbers each season, though. These ratings are old, but Longenhagen last had him with a 45/50 FB, 45/55 curve, 40/50 change and 30/50 control with 2300 rpm on his FB. He's 21 now. Turns 22 in late July. My guess is he'll likely be in the Low-A piggyback rotation.

[CubsWin]

I'm actually not all that enthused about the depth of the system. I guess I'm still waiting to see if Strumpf's bat is that elite. There's big curiosity on Preciado now, considering Longenhagen's take really was high. I am rather big on Kohl Franklin and think he might just be a little under ... well, not undervalued (as 6 is high) but maybe under-appreciated. Of course, with 2020 being what it was, it's hard to really know right now. I think Patterson might deserve to be ranked higher.

 

That said, in comparing it to the Cubs depth of recent past ... well, yeah, it's deeper. It's funny, the end of the Hendry/Wilken era focused a lot on the number of guys at the top that struggled, but off the top, it seems like a decent amount of guys ended up having some time in the bigs. They just didn't develop top level talent. I think we might be in a better position than those years, as it feels like the ceiling of some of the depth is higher, but there's so many guys so far away that it's just hard to really get a grasp, particularly after 2020.

 

Anyhow, I was running some stuff and while waiting, I was looking at clips of Brennen Davis' swing from 2019. Boy, I really want to find something to pick apart there, and obviously, highlights are a bit limiting, but the swing looks so good that I just have a hard time not putting him first. Marquez's relative ceiling might be greater, but boy, if that swing holds for Davis and he can deal with the off-speed stuff at higher levels ... put it this way, for the Cubs to open a 2nd window sooner than later, it feels like Davis has to be real enough that he's a star you build around (since so many guys are so far away) or he's a guy who helps net a critical package (preferably the former, but I guess you never rule out anything).

 

The guy from 11-30 that I'm really hoping on/curious with is Chris Clarke. The curve and sinker are fine, but curious if there's been enough development for him to make it as a starter in the upper levels, or if he'll get fast-tracked for the pen.

 

I'm still holding out some hope, however small, that Justin Steele can have a nice run as a major league pen arm. Not sure why I keep holding out hope on that one.

 

Wasn't there another Rodriguez? Not Manuel, but I can't think of it right now.

It's the number of young prospects with apparent upside not on most top 30 lists combined with the 15 or so more widely recognized guys who are 21 years old and younger that has me enthused about the Cubs system depth.

 

By my count, (outside of Brailyn Marquez who just turned 22 5 days ago) the Cubs currently have 14 20-21 years olds with noteworthy upside:

 

Brennen Davis

Miguel Amaya

Cole Roederer

Kohl Franklin

Burl Carraway

Chris Morel

Yeison Santana

Ethan Hearn

Yovanny Cruz

Jordan Nwogu

Luis Verdugo

Benjamin Rodriguez

Manuel Espinoza

Luke Little

 

...and 16 teenagers with upside worth following:

 

Cristian Hernandez

Ed Howard

Reginald Preciado

Ismael Mena

Ronnier Quintero

Kevin Made

Richard Gallardo

Yohendrick Pinango

Owen Caissie

DJ Herz

Rafael Morel

Koen Moreno

Tyler Schlaffer

Moises Ballesteros

Reivaj Garcia

Brayan Altuve

 

That's 30 guys with upside 21 or younger with a shot of becoming top 150 prospects or better. I can't remember young upside depth like that for the Cubs before. Combine that with some decent upside of older guys (not including Alzolay) like:

 

Ryan Jensen

Riley Thompson

Chase Strumpf

Cory Abbott

Chris Clarke

Mike McAvene

 

...and a bunch of fringey possible major league contributors who should fall off the list like:

 

Keegan Thompson

Alfonso Rivas

Justin Steele

Manuel Rodriguez

Jack Patterson

Andy Weber

Tyson Miller

 

Including Brailyn Marquez (who didn't fit into those arbitrary categories), that's 44 prospects, 36 with notable upside. You can make arguments for more, but I won't. All of those guys have either the draft/IFA bonus pedigree, are currently on a Cubs top 30 list or are labeled 35+ FV by Longenhagen.

 

I don't know about you, but that's pretty deep.

[CubsWin]

Just for fun, here's a 26-man roster made up of the prospects listed:

 

C - Amaya

1B - Preciado

2B - Strumpf

SS - Howard

3B - C. Hernandez

LF - Nwogu

CF - Mena

RF - Davis

 

SP - Marquez

SP - Franklin

SP - Gallardo

SP - R. Thompson

SP - Abbott

 

RP - Jensen

RP - Carraway

RP - McAvene

RP - Steele

RP - Clarke

RP - M. Rodriguez

RP - L. Little

RP - Y. Cruz

 

C - Quintero

INF - Santana

INF - Made

INF - C. Morel

OF - Roederer

OF - Caissie

 

Not bad...

[toonsterwu]

I'm not saying the depth isn't interesting, but I'm not going to get all that excited about high upside low level guys until they show something in full season to get excited about.

 

Don't get me wrong, I think the system is deeper, but at the end of the day, there's only really a handful of names that stand out to me on those two lists, guys that seem like they might hold intrigue in all systems (for lack of a better way of phrasing it). Even then, more than half of that subset likely won't become much of anything by the time they get to AA ... if they get there.

[CubsWin]

I'm not saying the depth isn't interesting, but I'm not going to get all that excited about high upside low level guys until they show something in full season to get excited about.

 

Don't get me wrong, I think the system is deeper, but at the end of the day, there's only really a handful of names that stand out to me on those two lists, guys that seem like they might hold intrigue in all systems (for lack of a better way of phrasing it). Even then, more than half of that subset likely won't become much of anything by the time they get to AA ... if they get there.

Indeed, sir. Excitement not required. Just recognizing that I don't think I've seen it this deep with upside guys before. Now they've got to develop enough of them successfully for it to mean something. Having a larger pool for your hits (and misses) to come from does improve your odds of having some pop, however. That combined with this new and improved technological approach along with coaches that know how to apply it, does give me renewed hope for a top ten system in a year or two.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Marquee’s top 20 Cubs prospects: https://www.marqueesportsnetwork.com/top-20-cubs-prospects-2021-preseason/

[Bertz]

Keith Law ranked the Cubs' system 26th. Given the circumstances though, I'm not too concerned. He had the Cubs in a similar spot last year, and since then they've graduated Hoerner, had a fairly solid draft (which shouldn't move them up or down too much), and added a metric assload of IFA talent (both directly and through the Darvish trade). Keith doesn't have the best insight into IFA even in the best of times, so I'm not surprised he doesn't give that the weight I might think it deserves.

 

I'm most interested to see Eric Longenhagen's eventual rankings. He does his lists a little later than everyone else, and lives down in AZ. So he's likely to actually have recent firsthand looks at guys.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Keith Law ranked the Cubs' system 26th. Given the circumstances though, I'm not too concerned. He had the Cubs in a similar spot last year, and since then they've graduated Hoerner, had a fairly solid draft (which shouldn't move them up or down too much), and added a metric assload of IFA talent (both directly and through the Darvish trade). Keith doesn't have the best insight into IFA even in the best of times, so I'm not surprised he doesn't give that the weight I might think it deserves.

 

I'm most interested to see Eric Longenhagen's eventual rankings. He does his lists a little later than everyone else, and lives down in AZ. So he's likely to actually have recent firsthand looks at guys.

 

Completely agree. Not sure how well national lists will handle a canceled season but it looks like most of his changes were due to trades or graduations (that’s fair, that’s probably the only truly accurate info you have).

[CaliforniaRaisin]

BA released theirs today too and have the Cubs at 17.

[UK]

Talk me out of my irrational love for Kevin Made...

[Bertz]

BA released theirs today too and have the Cubs at 17.

 

Obviously we're all biased here, but this feels more right to me. I think on talent alone this is a top 10 system. That said, a big part of a farm's value rests on proximity, and the Cubs are rightly going to get marked down for that pretty heavily.

 

- Iowa is a horsefeathering graveyard to open the year. Abbott, Miller, and Steele are probably the only top 30 guys who will open there?

 

- Tenn will be better, but TBD on how much? Davis, Amaya, and Marquez will open there for sure. But is it just going to be those three and a bunch of (admittedly fun) relievers? Or will we also get some combo of Strumpf/Morel/Weber to help lengthen that lineup?

 

Beyond that, both A Ball squads are going to be hella fun, but they are still just A Ball.

[craig]

Yeah, I think the BA rank is probably closer. But, who knows, really? Every organization has guys who worked out last year, and worked on new pitches, and young hitters who added muscle.

 

It may turn out that once games start, Brailyn and Jensen and McAvene and Burl are wildmen.

 

To some degree I think Brailyn is kind of a ranking swing man. I assume Law views him as a wildman reliever. BA values him more highly, and thinks his chance to make it as a good rotation guy is real. Likewise BA has kind of bought into Alzolay with the slider as a plus-stuff guy with a chance to be a perfectly good #3.

 

How those two pitchers play out will largely determine what kind of pre-season ranking was more wise.

 

That said, by next year, probably both will have graduated; or if Brailyn hasn't pitched well enough to graduate, he will probably not be earning great ranking love.

[craig]

In terms of future ranking, probably Brailyn, Alzolay, and Abbott (and Steele) are about the only guys on our top 40 who are likely to graduate, right? Maybe Amaya. The huge preponderance of our current top-40 will still be available for next year's lists.

 

It would be kinda awesome if in a single season Brailyn, Alzolay, and Abbott all graduated and became valid mlb rotation starters. That would be pretty good production from a #27 system!

[CubsWin]

In terms of future ranking, probably Brailyn, Alzolay, and Abbott (and Steele) are about the only guys on our top 40 who are likely to graduate, right? Maybe Amaya. The huge preponderance of our current top-40 will still be available for next year's lists.

 

It would be kinda awesome if in a single season Brailyn, Alzolay, and Abbott all graduated and became valid mlb rotation starters. That would be pretty good production from a #27 system!

Yeah, that's what's so intriguing about our system right now. Ever since the Cubs re-evaluated their draft philosophy (especially pitchers) in 2018 and started looking for more upside, their system began rebuilding at a faster clip than before. Follow that with the 2019 overhaul of their technology as applied to development and that rebuild kicked into an even higher gear. The lost minor league season has delayed anyone outside the organization from seeing any of the results thus far, but the sheer number of prospects with youth and upside is undeniable.

 

Alzolay will graduate the moment he records an out this upcoming season, but depending on their performance once getting to the bigs, guys Abbott, K. Thompson, Steele and T. Miller as well as Marquez could all pitch enough innings to no longer qualify as prospects, and as you correctly pointed out, that would be pretty good influx of talent for a low ranked system even if some of them don't perform. The thing is, only Marquez is one of those upside guys. It's pretty unlikely Amaya will spend enough time with the Cubs, but if there's a Contreras trade/injury and he's playing well enough, who knows.

 

Assuming Amaya's still eligible, there's a good chance he and Davis will be top 100 prospects next year. Then there's a group of players that I think are likely to take big enough steps forward to join them or come close. Kohl Franklin (21), Ryan Jensen (23) and Ed Howard (19) each have good shots at doing that.

 

But the really intriguing part for me is what's 2-3 years away. The Cubs have 11 teenagers that all have above average to excellent draft/IFA pedigree. I don't think I've seen it this deep with young, upside guys before.

 

Howard (19)

Hernandez (17)

Preciado (17)

Made (18)

Mena (18)

Caissie (18)

Gallardo (19)

Quintero (18)

Pinango (19)

R. Morel (19)

Moreno (19)

 

Then there's the 11 20-21 year olds (not counting Davis and Amaya) with varying degrees of upside:

 

B. Davis (21)

Amaya (21)

Franklin (21)

Roederer (21)

Carraway (21)

C. Morel (21)

Y. Santana (20)

Nwogu (21)

Hearn (20)

Verdugo (20)

Herz (20)

Y. Cruz (21)

L. Little (21)

 

That's 22 prospects. I'd say 4 of them (Howard, Hernandez, Preciado and Franklin) have a strong chance of becoming top 100 prospects. If 2-3 of the remaining 18 do as well, the Cubs system should be good for a while.

 

Now it's up to the coaches and the technology to get the job done.

[CubsWin]

Another thing the 2018 shift toward upside and the technological overhaul did was give the Cubs a much better chance of generating a solid bullpen on the cheap. Not only has the pitching lab unearthed players like Wick and helped the Cubs backfill with cheap but effective signings like Jason Adam, but they have a growing list of possible pen arms in the system.

 

The hopes are right now that Jensen will make it as a starter, but if he doesn't, he's got the stuff for a high leverage reliever as does Carraway. Other options include Mike McAvene, Manuel Rodriguez and Hunter Bigge. That's 5 arms with upper 90s FBs and at least one average to better secondary pitch and in a couple years, who knows, maybe Luke Little and Yovanny Cruz join that upper 90s list. Justin Steele will likely see his first big league action this year, plus there are others with promising stuff but less velo like Chris Clarke (who is a starter for now), Ethan Roberts, Bryan Hudson and Cam Sanders that have a shot at contributing as middle relievers.

 

The rest of these guys are simply long shots but will be fun to follow: Ben Hecht, Ryan Lawlor, CD Pelham, Max Bain, Ben Leeper and the never say never Jose Albertos.

 

Man, I need a real minor league season...

[toonsterwu]

Out of curiosity, anyone know where Kiley ranked the Cubs this year?

 

26th seems a bit low because there seems to be enough raw talent in the system, 17th seems reasonable, but obviously none of that really matters. At the end of the day, we simply need to develop and graduate top guys.

 

I'm not necessarily convinced Brailyn definitely graduates from rookie lists this year. I guess it's possible, but I'm assuming he'll start in AA.

[Named After Maddux]

Another thing the 2018 shift toward upside and the technological overhaul did was give the Cubs a much better chance of generating a solid bullpen on the cheap. Not only has the pitching lab unearthed players like Wick and helped the Cubs backfill with cheap but effective signings like Jason Adam, but they have a growing list of possible pen arms in the system.

 

The hopes are right now that Jensen will make it as a starter, but if he doesn't, he's got the stuff for a high leverage reliever as does Carraway. Other options include Mike McAvene, Manuel Rodriguez and Hunter Bigge. That's 5 arms with upper 90s FBs and at least one average to better secondary pitch and in a couple years, who knows, maybe Luke Little and Yovanny Cruz join that upper 90s list. Justin Steele will likely see his first big league action this year, plus there are others with promising stuff but less velo like Chris Clarke (who is a starter for now), Ethan Roberts, Bryan Hudson and Cam Sanders that have a shot at contributing as middle relievers.

 

The rest of these guys are simply long shots but will be fun to follow: Ben Hecht, Ryan Lawlor, CD Pelham, Max Bain, Ben Leeper and the never say never Jose Albertos.

 

Man, I need a real minor league season...

 

That’s a great breakdown. People seem to really like Ben Leeper. I’ll be curious if the optimism is more about the relative value of getting a reliever who could make the majors out of an UDFA signing or if it’s about true late-inning reliever level talent. I’m guessing, like all of this, we find out a lot by June.

Luke Little is an interesting dude too. I was a bit pessimistic about the pick early on, but there was definitely a team about to select him before the Cubs did. They had him in for a workout and kinetically they were impressed. I remember thinking he was very stiff in his predraft. It’ll be curious to see if they run him out as a starter early since he’ll need so much development. I imagine he’ll at least piggyback early like a lot of guys this year.

[Bertz]

Out of curiosity, anyone know where Kiley ranked the Cubs this year?

 

26th seems a bit low because there seems to be enough raw talent in the system, 17th seems reasonable, but obviously none of that really matters. At the end of the day, we simply need to develop and graduate top guys.

 

I'm not necessarily convinced Brailyn definitely graduates from rookie lists this year. I guess it's possible, but I'm assuming he'll start in AA.

 

Kiley had us at 22nd, and basically said that we're on the upswing but lack the top 100 types that tend to drive those rankings.

[craig]

.... People seem to really like Ben Leeper. I’ll be curious if the optimism is more about the relative value of getting a reliever who could make the majors out of an UDFA signing or if it’s about true late-inning reliever level talent. ...

 

Remind me. He's the older OK State guy, who had surgery? Kind of a college Maples, with a strong/fast arm and a lot of K's, but kind of a walk-an-inning guy? I'm sure I'm oversimplifying, but in my head I'm recalling him kind of as a 2K/1BB-per-inning type of wildman profile, right?

 

Kind of an interesting wildcard, I'd think. As a relief guy who was a freshman, then coming back as a rehab guy, and then Covid-shortened, he'll turn 24 early summer, but only pitched 72 college innings combined. So probably with so little actual game pitching, and much of that in kind of rehab post-op mode, it's not entirely clear that what he's been past represents what he might be future.

 

I'm fired up about the pitch-lab stuff and the optimism that they can develop pitch shape etc.

 

But I admit I'm really curious and a little less confident about how much pitch-lab development will be able to help the wildman. Adjusting grips and delivery for better velocity and better pitch shape, that make sense.

 

But does the pitch-lab have capacity to help wildman gain control? If so, how would that work?

 

Heh heh, in chemistry research, we do proof-of-principle experiments, and if a new procedure works well for a case-study, scope-and-limitation studies follow. I'm kinda thinking that *if* there is proof-of-principle that pitch-lab-can help command, a guy like Leeper might be on the extreme-challenge end of the scope-and-limitation continuum for control-repair.

[Post Count Padder]

Bleacher Nation/Bryan Smith did their Top 40 ranking. Not gonna list it all here, the latest article of the top 10 has all the links:

 

https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2021/02/11/the-2021-bn-top-ten-cubs-prospects-the-run-up-to-davis/

 

10. Abbott

9. Strumpf

8. Franklin

7. Hernandez

6. Jensen

5. Howard

4. Alzolay

3. Amaya

2. Marquez

1. Davis

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Out of curiosity, anyone know where Kiley ranked the Cubs this year?

 

26th seems a bit low because there seems to be enough raw talent in the system, 17th seems reasonable, but obviously none of that really matters. At the end of the day, we simply need to develop and graduate top guys.

 

I'm not necessarily convinced Brailyn definitely graduates from rookie lists this year. I guess it's possible, but I'm assuming he'll start in AA.

 

Kiley had us at 22nd, and basically said that we're on the upswing but lack the top 100 types that tend to drive those rankings.

 

He also said the Cubs could be at the top of the rankings in 2 years, which is what many of us have been hoping with the acquisition of so many talented but greener prospects.

[Named After Maddux]

.... People seem to really like Ben Leeper. I’ll be curious if the optimism is more about the relative value of getting a reliever who could make the majors out of an UDFA signing or if it’s about true late-inning reliever level talent. ...

 

Remind me. He's the older OK State guy, who had surgery? Kind of a college Maples, with a strong/fast arm and a lot of K's, but kind of a walk-an-inning guy? I'm sure I'm oversimplifying, but in my head I'm recalling him kind of as a 2K/1BB-per-inning type of wildman profile, right?

 

Kind of an interesting wildcard, I'd think. As a relief guy who was a freshman, then coming back as a rehab guy, and then Covid-shortened, he'll turn 24 early summer, but only pitched 72 college innings combined. So probably with so little actual game pitching, and much of that in kind of rehab post-op mode, it's not entirely clear that what he's been past represents what he might be future.

 

I'm fired up about the pitch-lab stuff and the optimism that they can develop pitch shape etc.

 

But I admit I'm really curious and a little less confident about how much pitch-lab development will be able to help the wildman. Adjusting grips and delivery for better velocity and better pitch shape, that make sense.

 

But does the pitch-lab have capacity to help wildman gain control? If so, how would that work?

 

Heh heh, in chemistry research, we do proof-of-principle experiments, and if a new procedure works well for a case-study, scope-and-limitation studies follow. I'm kinda thinking that *if* there is proof-of-principle that pitch-lab-can help command, a guy like Leeper might be on the extreme-challenge end of the scope-and-limitation continuum for control-repair.

 

You're totally right on the backstory. He's had an extensive history of wildness. It's improved a bit in relief, but he's still about 1 BB/inning.

 

If you wanted a "proof of concept" to developing a pitcher with a wildness problem, maybe Riley Thompson? He sported a 6.8 BB/inning in his last season in college. Since with the Cubs, he's halved that. Not exactly a 1 to 1 situation, but perhaps there's a minor grip change, mental cue, or biokinetic fix for Leeper. Any of those could have happened in instructs. Will be interesting to dive into more.

[JeffH]

If you wanted a "proof of concept" to developing a pitcher with a wildness problem, maybe Riley Thompson? He sported a 6.8 BB/inning in his last season in college. Since with the Cubs, he's halved that.

 

A walk rate like that would make Dillon Maples seem like Bob Tewksbury!

 

Per 9 IP...