2020 Offseason Thread

[Cubswin11]

The Cubs are not a playoff team starting David Bote and Victor Caratini

 

We're what...2-3 weeks out from FA being flooded with a widely expected record number of non-tenders and releases? Once that happens, me thinks many will see what I see: a gross, owner friendly massacre of an offseason that will present ample opportunity for the Cubs to improve depth without spending a ton of money

They probably will need to cut some money more through trade (KB/Willy/Javy) or NT (Schwarbs and some of the bullpen guys like Winkler and Ryan) vs just the FA money falling off to even add in what’s likely to be a great buyers market and have the ability to build out a better team vs just running it back and standing still. That’s the whole point.

[Cubswin11]

They probably will need to cut some money more through trade (KB/Willy/Javy) or NT (Schwarbs and some of the bullpen guys like Winkler and Ryan) vs just the FA money falling off to even add in what’s likely to be a great buyers market and have the ability to build out a better team vs just running it back and standing still. That’s the whole point.

 

This is interesting. In two posts you've gone from them being able to shop among the top tier of FAs (except Bauer) with a couple cuts to now struggling to shop even among cheaper FAs without basically those same cuts...Do you see why I'm confused and don't see how any of what you're suggesting adds up!?

 

Contreras, Happ, Caratini, and Bote are all guys who will be valued for their low prices and multiple years of control, would save something like $15 million in 2021, and would bring players back that aren't well below what they're worth...Seems like those are the obvious guys to move

I think with where they’re at right now with the ~$45 falling off with FA leaving is where they want payroll for the year. If they can move some guys (KB/Schwarbs/etc) and free up $30+ mil I think that will go a long ways in this FA market and you can bring in 3-5+ guys for that ~$30 mil to “replace” them/deepen the roster/diversify the offense and fill other needs plus get whatever back in trades.

 

They can only really shop in the FA market if they cut further salary, imo. And how they get there can involve moving a lot of different guys. I don’t think they can really be buyers in FA if they bring back basically the whole team again outside of some Kipnis level adds. The ~$45 mil falling off isn’t enough to really add. I think we are looking at dealing with a $160-175 mil payroll this year. That’s what I’m suggesting and where we seem to have a misunderstanding.

Edited November 17, 2020 by Cubswin11

[Cubswin11]

[Backtobanks]

We could solve the problem If only we could turn back time (when money was flowing) and KB would get us 2-3 good young players/prospects that could step right in and contribute to the ML roster. Unfortunately, those days aren't happening this off season.

[Cubswin11]

This isn’t what I “want” it’s just something I think is a route to really turn things over and still be competitive enough in this division. KB and Schwarbs combined for ~$25 mil last year. Their arb number almost certainly pushes north of $30 mil combined. I think you could get something like 1 of DJ/Brantley, 1 of Wong/Eaton and another 1-2 pieces for ~$30 mil in this market. That pretty drastically changes the offensive profile we badly need and don’t think it makes us any worse and helps diversify the offense that maybe we’re actually better. Only DJ/Brantley would take more than a 1 year commitment. Leaves plenty of flexibility for the next offseason.

 

The Kipnis add wasn’t bad, I liked it. But it’s clear we need to make multiple adds/changes on offense and a starter or two and I don’t believe we even have the ability to add 3-5 guys in that Kipnis range where payroll stands without making moves to shed salary. If we had the room to do like Eaton, Pillar, and some sort of contacty IF plus a FA SP in that Q/Odorizzi range with only NT’ing Schwarbs and/or moving Bote I’d be all for just doing that and seeing how the year goes but I don’t think they have the money to do it without shedding more money.

 

Do you think they’re going to be pushing a $200 mil payroll again this year? Or where do you think they’re getting the flexibility to make additions/changes?

[Bull]

If the team signing a qualified FA paid the luxury tax in the preceding season, it will lose its second AND fifth-highest picks in the draft (regardless of round), as well as $1M of its international bonus pool in the upcoming period. Ouch.

 

If the team signing a qualified FA did not pay the luxury tax, but does contribute to revenue sharing (i.e. larger market teams with more reasonable payrolls), it would lose its second highest pick in the draft and $500K of it’s upcoming international bonus pool.

 

If the team signing a qualified FA did not pay the luxury tax and also received revenue sharing money last season, it loses ONLY its third-highest pick in the draft.

 

 

The luxury tax is much closer to a salary cap than people let on.

[Backtobanks]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/11/2020-non-tender-candidates.html

 

Bring on Goodrum IF/OF, Matt Barnes RHRP, Bryant, Schwarber, Carlos Estevez RHRP, Jose Urena RHP, Stephenson RHRP, Matz LHSP?, Vince Velazquez RHSP?, Robert Gsellman RHP?, and Wandy Peralta LHRP unless Th....Hoyer...doesn't bring them on...would really like Goodrum though

 

A lot of interesting names on the list, especially in the bullpen: Climber, Dominguez, Guerra, Brebbia, Heller, Alexander, Claudio. Of course Gray would look good in the rotation. Maybe Camargo as utility/3B depending on what happens with KB and Bote.

[Bertz]

 

I've been thinking a lot about something like this. Obviously with Javy already in hand importing a full middle infield isn't necessary, but what about one of these guys plus Jackie Bradley Jr? Bryant probably has to go to make the money work, but think about something like:

 

Happ (LF)

Schwarber (DH)

Contreras

Rizzo

Baez (2B)

Heyward

Bote

Simmons (SS)

Bradley (CF)

 

That's an absurd defensive team, and honestly not necessarily a bad offensive one. Like it's probably not the offseason I would draw up, but I don't hate it.

[Cubswin11]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/11/2020-non-tender-candidates.html

 

Bring on Goodrum IF/OF, Matt Barnes RHRP, Bryant, Schwarber, Carlos Estevez RHRP, Jose Urena RHP, Stephenson RHRP, Matz LHSP?, Vince Velazquez RHSP?, Robert Gsellman RHP?, and Wandy Peralta LHRP unless Th....Hoyer...doesn't bring them on...would really like Goodrum though

Big fan of adding Goodrum and Estevez from that list. But Jon Gray is easily my favorite potential NT target of anyone. I’d hope they’d make an exception to give him a multi year deal if he is NT’d.

[Bertz]

 

Nothing all that interesting on the Cubs front, but I thought this was a good team-by-team level setting exercise.

[UK]

 

 

Some interesting things about this guy:

 

- Hit 100 recently

- 16(!!!!!!) HRs allowed in 410+ pro innings

- 6'6" 250

- Weird delivery

- 28% whiff rate on 43 changeups thrown in the MLs

 

This is his changeup in a ML game:

 

 

I'm putting this signing in the offseason thread because he probably has a shot

 

He's a good kid. Scouted alot him in HS. I'm sure DJ never wants me to attend one of his games.

[Cubswin11]

The Mets were already going to be one of the big spenders/buyers and now with Cano busted for PEDs that opens up another $24 mil. If we blow it up for whatever reasons seems like they’re a fit for a lot of our guys. KB, Willy, Yu, Javy and maybe even Kimbrel. Edited November 18, 2020 by Cubswin11

[Backtobanks]

The Mets were already going to be the me off the big spenders/buyers but with Cano busted for PEDs that opens up another $24 mil. If we blow it up for whatever reasons seems like they’re a fit for a lot of our guys. KB, Willy, Yu, Javy and maybe even Kimbrel.

 

Not totally blowing it up, but how about KB and Kimbrel for Dominic Smith and Familia. I included Familia to give them a little break on Kimbrel's salary. We would end up saving about $25 million.

[Bertz]

 

Now that Theo Epstein has stepped down, what do you expect to see from the Cubs the rest of this offseason?

 

Buster Olney: Massive turnover. The Cubs have signaled to other teams they are going to alter the core of position players that won the World Series in 2016 and they're open to talk about everyone from Yu Darvish to Javier Baez. The perception of other teams is that the club is dealing with major financial stresses.

[UMFan83]

 

Now that Theo Epstein has stepped down, what do you expect to see from the Cubs the rest of this offseason?

 

Buster Olney: Massive turnover. The Cubs have signaled to other teams they are going to alter the core of position players that won the World Series in 2016 and they're open to talk about everyone from Yu Darvish to Javier Baez. The perception of other teams is that the club is dealing with major financial stresses.

 

Let’s presume that this “major financial stress” is real (and it’s not), how the horsefeathers did we get there? Everyone is dealing with COVID, the network was launched, you own the whole neighborhood, the teams value has literally quadrupled since you bought the team. I don’t understand how you could possible be under major financial stress unless they are incredibly mismanaged and/or they are throwing their money at Trump.

 

Maybe all the renovations and developments put them in debt. But clearly they are poised to recoup all that pretty quickly and it’s not like the Cubs are the family’s only revenue source.

 

I get it, it’s all a bunch of BS, but why are the Cubs crying poor twice as loud as any other team in baseball?

[Cubswin11]

 

Now that Theo Epstein has stepped down, what do you expect to see from the Cubs the rest of this offseason?

 

Buster Olney: Massive turnover. The Cubs have signaled to other teams they are going to alter the core of position players that won the World Series in 2016 and they're open to talk about everyone from Yu Darvish to Javier Baez. The perception of other teams is that the club is dealing with major financial stresses.

 

Let’s presume that this “major financial stress” is real (and it’s not), how the horsefeathers did we get there? Everyone is dealing with COVID, the network was launched, you own the whole neighborhood, the teams value has literally quadrupled since you bought the team. I don’t understand how you could possible be under major financial stress unless they are incredibly mismanaged and/or they are throwing their money at Trump.

 

Maybe all the renovations and developments put them in debt. But clearly they are poised to recoup all that pretty quickly and it’s not like the Cubs are the family’s only revenue source.

 

I get it, it’s all a bunch of BS, but why are the Cubs crying poor twice as loud as any other team in baseball?

There’s no doubt it’s likely only a short term cash crunch and they’ll be fine in the long run, however real and serious this may or may not be. But I could see how they could be in a pretty bad short term spot and low on cash (talking Cubs specific in a vacuum, not the overall Ricketts empire). Even though they didn’t spend more the last few years they still ran high payrolls (as they should) and they were over the LT the last 2(?) which requires the additional penalty payments. Revenue has mostly dried up and they’ve presumably leveraged up and taken on a ton of debt.

 

The TV deal wasn’t a cash infusion, they took the long term/equity play starting the network and it required funding up front. They didn’t get some big payment from fox sports or Comcast or whatever, the payoff on that is down the road. They’ve stuck a ton in to Wrigley and surrounding areas (rooftops, bars, restaurants, hotel, parking, Wrigley stadium renovations/improvements, etc.) and that was shut down for a whole year when it should’ve been [expletive] out cash and there’s uncertainty to project when that will be getting back to normal. They probably used a large chunk of the appreciation of the Cubs asset(s) and future cash projections to leverage in to debt to fund all these other ventures and the debt service right now likely is a pretty big number with uncertainty about when revenue will return to support it (again Cubs business in a vacuum, not overall Ricketts).

 

That would be my best guess at it. But part of being a billionaire sports owner is sucking it up during the bad times (which are rare) because they get so many benefits and so much upside when times are good.

Edited November 19, 2020 by Cubswin11

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Now that Theo Epstein has stepped down, what do you expect to see from the Cubs the rest of this offseason?

 

Buster Olney: Massive turnover. The Cubs have signaled to other teams they are going to alter the core of position players that won the World Series in 2016 and they're open to talk about everyone from Yu Darvish to Javier Baez. The perception of other teams is that the club is dealing with major financial stresses.

 

Do it, cowards. I'm bored.

[SaorsaDaonnan]

Behold:

[SaorsaDaonnan]

In other words, for those who TL;DR -ed my post the other day:

 

The Cubs had a 500m construction budget but spent 1b on construction prior to covid, and now on top of that HALF A BILLION DOLLARS IN OVERAGES, they have covid losses PTR has described as “biblical”...

 

...as well as economic uncertainties of many kinds on the horizon...next year’s attendance figures, the upcoming CBA negotiations and the possibility of a lockout, somewhat unfavorable-to-fatcats electoral results, the possibility that the interest rate might rise, etc.

 

Logical arguments can be made about maintaining a high payroll to keep fans happy and revenues high; certainly a few million now would be a tiny slice of the overall picture & could mean a lot of revenue in the future, and the Ricketts do have deep enough pockets to do that if they wish. But they have been clear that they will make a financial plan first, and then merely let Jed do whatever he can with the leftovers that constitute his slice it. Debt retirement is the goal; competitiveness is the (to them) trivial afterthought.

[Backtobanks]

In other words, for those who TL;DR -ed my post the other day:

 

The Cubs had a 500m construction budget but spent 1b on construction prior to covid, and now on top of that HALF A BILLION DOLLARS IN OVERAGES, they have covid losses PTR has described as “biblical”...

 

...as well as economic uncertainties of many kinds on the horizon...next year’s attendance figures, the upcoming CBA negotiations and the possibility of a lockout, somewhat unfavorable-to-fatcats electoral results, the possibility that the interest rate might rise, etc.

 

Logical arguments can be made about maintaining a high payroll to keep fans happy and revenues high; certainly a few million now would be a tiny slice of the overall picture & could mean a lot of revenue in the future, and the Ricketts do have deep enough pockets to do that if they wish. But they have been clear that they will make a financial plan first, and then merely let Jed do whatever he can with the leftovers that constitute his slice it. Debt retirement is the goal; competitiveness is the (to them) trivial afterthought.

 

Simple solution - Put the Cubs up for sale. PTR makes a huge profit and still owns the whole neighborhood and Cub fans get an owner that might loosen the purse strings.

[SaorsaDaonnan]

 

Simple solution - Put the Cubs up for sale. PTR makes a huge profit and still owns the whole neighborhood and Cub fans get an owner that might loosen the purse strings.

 

Sure, if your aim is simply to describe a good plan. But many posters are trying to make predictions about the actual future of the franchise and then say how they would operate as baseball ops guys within the limits of their predictions...

 

...but their predictions are silly, based on the idea that the owners’ overriding goal is to win, and the false idea that the owners believe they have the wherewithal to spend.

 

If they write that the Cubs will not build around the Caratinis and Botes of the world because those players aren’t good enough, or that the Cubs won’t choose to save money because that wouldn’t be good for fans, they’re misunderstanding everything about the causal processes they’re trying to describe.

[Bertz]

 

Yeah it really sounds like this is gonna happen. Interestingly though, it sounds like they're open to moving pitching, but not necessarily pushing for it. If you combine these last few national reports with what we've heard from the local guys, my sense is that they aren't under directive to cut additional payroll, but that they're already near their (PTR imposed) cap. So in order to do anything beyond a couple of split contracts, they need to move salary.

[SaorsaDaonnan]

Personally I predict a 2021 team like the following:

 

Darvish

Hendricks

3-4m veteran

Mills

2m veteran plus Alzolay up to innings limit

 

Contreras

Rizzo

cheapness (Hoerner playing every day in minors)

Bote

Baez

 

Happ / cheap filler

cheap filler / Happ

Heyward

 

Caratini as DH

 

Trade Deadline Dealable reliever

 

Assumptions/expectations:

 

* They’ll talk at length about Darvish, Hendricks, Contreras deals but not get offers that combine enough $$$ with enough prospect/young controllable player value

 

* They’ll talk about Baez but get offers that are cautious because of his bad year, and just keep him ‘til the deadline. If the team is good, keeping his value/upside for a half season and then adding a QO later is fine if you can’t work out a long term deal; if the team isn’t good, at least hope he had a good first half so that the positive recent work raises his value about as much as the half-season’s worth of service time use lessens it...and/or that someone is very excited about contending and overpays

 

* That KB is dealt for a low-A, 50-ish pitching prospect but mostly salary relief for payroll reduction, while Schwarber is nontendered or traded before the season for primarily salary relief. Maybe the Cubs could pull a Strop and steal a good player somehow, but under this plan that’d mostly come as a bonus

 

* That Kimbrel is dealt for a bag of balls but 2/3 of his salary picked up by another team, which we use to sign a lower ceiling but higher floor reliever on a 1 or 2 year deal, someone we could either keep or deal at the deadline

 

* That the team will spend the offseason talking about its desire for controllable SPs but not find anyone interested in trading that kind of player in these times

 

* Outside shot of long term deal for Baez, Rizzo, etc in Spring Training, but I am probably just wishcasting here

[toonsterwu]

 

Yeah it really sounds like this is gonna happen. Interestingly though, it sounds like they're open to moving pitching, but not necessarily pushing for it. If you combine these last few national reports with what we've heard from the local guys, my sense is that they aren't under directive to cut additional payroll, but that they're already near their (PTR imposed) cap. So in order to do anything beyond a couple of split contracts, they need to move salary.

 

Honestly, if you are going a full re-start, then you need to place all your chips into restocking the system. As much as there's some high level intrigue now, most of it is far away with a lot of risk at hand. If you are selling, then you need to go all-in on selling, and if that's the case, your two assets that are likely to net the most impactful young talent in return would be Darvish and Hendricks. Hendricks would probably, at that contract, get a high level return. You'd arguably be selling high on Darvish, and the remaining deal (looks like 3/59) ought to be palatable enough for the Cubs to get a quality return without eating any of the money (if eating money would help increase the return, they should obviously do it).

 

Either way, if you are going to dip your toes into that pool. you need to jump in. Half-measures only extend and delay the inevitable. I don't know Cubs fans sites very well anymore, but I did see someone suggest moving Heyward. While that would be nice, it's hard to see that happen. Kimbrel ... it's hard to see a team taking him in the off-season. Mid-season, sure.

[toonsterwu]

Speaking on Hendricks, I'd be surprised if they couldn't get a pretty big deal for Hendricks, considering his age, production, and contract. It might entail some more lower level guys, but honestly, with a restart, or whatever the term is, you don't need young MLB players. You need quantity of quality young assets for a system that's still relatively thin at the top.

 

The ideal Hendricks trade needs to focus on quality of assets, if it's a restart, rather than position. If, though, the focus is on improving the young pitching depth in the system, I don't think it'd be that ridiculous to suggest Hendricks could net say, an upper level, close to ready young arm, a high upside arm in the A ball ranks, and maybe another lottery ticket (or two). Now, considering his age, it'd likely have to be a team that is in their window right now.

 

The usual teams would likely get mentioned in trades, like the A's, Mets, Braves, but the team I'd be looking at, if the focus is on pitching, would be the Royals. With limited budget flexibility, and needing rotation depth, Hendricks would be a nice veteran to front that group. They have a bunch of young arms in the system - if you can pry one of say, Lacy/Lynch/Kowar to headline a deal (I'd be stunned if you could get more than 1), it'd be the start of a pretty intriguing package. Of course, a lot of teams could put up something comparable.