2020 Playoff Race

[17 Seconds]

wait, so they won't play those 2 games if it decides the division? like, if the cards are in the playoffs and 1 game back of the cubs at the end of sunday, they wouldn't play the 2 game to try and win the division?

 

it would be pretty lame to win the division with cardinals fans being able to say they would have won it if they played the last 2 games

[ConstableRabbit]

wait, so they won't play those 2 games if it decides the division? like, if the cards are in the playoffs and 1 game back of the cubs at the end of sunday, they wouldn't play the 2 game to try and win the division?

 

it would be pretty lame to win the division with cardinals fans being able to say they would have won it if they played the last 2 games

What?

[bukie]

With 2 Phillies losses, the Cubs and Braves have clinched playoff spots Edited September 23, 2020 by bukie

[17 Seconds]

wait, so they won't play those 2 games if it decides the division? like, if the cards are in the playoffs and 1 game back of the cubs at the end of sunday, they wouldn't play the 2 game to try and win the division?

 

it would be pretty lame to win the division with cardinals fans being able to say they would have won it if they played the last 2 games

What?

 

?

[jersey cubs fan]

wait, so they won't play those 2 games if it decides the division? like, if the cards are in the playoffs and 1 game back of the cubs at the end of sunday, they wouldn't play the 2 game to try and win the division?

 

it would be pretty lame to win the division with cardinals fans being able to say they would have won it if they played the last 2 games

What?

 

?

!

[soccer10k]

wait, so they won't play those 2 games if it decides the division? like, if the cards are in the playoffs and 1 game back of the cubs at the end of sunday, they wouldn't play the 2 game to try and win the division?

 

it would be pretty lame to win the division with cardinals fans being able to say they would have won it if they played the last 2 games

What?

 

?

 

I’m guessing he means the second paragraph. Who cares what the Cardinal fans would say in that scenario. We would win the division and they can suck it.

[ConstableRabbit]

wait, so they won't play those 2 games if it decides the division? like, if the cards are in the playoffs and 1 game back of the cubs at the end of sunday, they wouldn't play the 2 game to try and win the division?

 

it would be pretty lame to win the division with cardinals fans being able to say they would have won it if they played the last 2 games

What?

 

?

Who gives a horsefeathers about what hypothetical Cardinals fans would say to try to invalidate a banner? Just a bizarrely negative spin on what would be a great outcome for any season.

[jersey cubs fan]

Imagine a MAGA head lamenting how unfair it would be for

Democrats to be able to claim they would have won if all the votes counted.

 

 

 

They wouldn’t.

[17 Seconds]

i just remembered that they were covid idiots, which overrides everything

[Cubswin11]

Only the Cubs

 

[Cubswin11]

We also clinched a top 2 division spot tonight. The Reds can't jump us since we own the H2H tie breaker (best they can do is tie with us losing out and them winning out) and the Cardinals-Brewers H2H will knock one (possibly both) from passing us. The following is a little murky with the Cardinals most likely playing 58, so the win % will be based on that for them.

 

If we go 0-5 rest of way:

 

Brewers 5-1 to tie, 6-0 to pass

 

Cardinals can't tie (by win%), 4-2 to pass (.534 win % vs .533 win %)

 

If we go 1-4 rest of way:

 

Brewers 6-0 to tie, can't pass (unless they have tie breaker)

 

Cardinals can't tie (by win%), 5-1 to pass (.552 win % vs .550 win %)

 

2-3 rest of way:

 

Brewers can't tie or or pass

 

Cardinals 6-0 to tie (.567 win% vs .567 win%), can't pass (technically they have like a .5668 win% vs .5666% for us so maybe they can pass by the 4th decimal) or else it's the tie breaker after win%, which IDK who has it or what it is since we tied H2H.

 

 

Anyone feel free to correct this if it's wrong.

[Bertz]

Second tiebreaker is division record.

 

- Cubs are at 22-16, with 2 left against the Pirates

- Cards are at 19-16, with 5 left against the Brewers

- Brewers are at 17-17, with 5 against the Cards and 1 against the Reds

- Reds (though it doesn't matter for us) are at 20-19, with one against the Brewers

 

So in the Cubs 0-5 scenario, if the Brewers tie it would go to the third tiebreaker, which is record in last 20 division games. I'm not going to calculate that, but I bet the Brewers have it, considering this scenario has them winning 5 of their last 6.

 

In the Cubs 1-4 scenario, if that win is against the Pirates, then again it would go to the third tiebreaker again, but if that win is against the White Sox, I think the Brewers would pass us.

[Cubswin11]

If we want any chance at the 2 seed we need to win the next two vs the pirates it would appear. Assuming division record is the first tie breaker. Braves are 1 up on us overall and also 1 up on division record. So we need them to lose at least 1 of their final 2 vs the Marlins here while we win both vs the Pirates to just tie them for that tie breaker. They have the Red Sox this weekend, so tying with them and winning the tie breaker is our best chance at the 2 seed vs outright passing them. IMO.

[Brian]

wow, at this moment the NL Central has 4 of 8 playoff spots.

[Brian707]

The #3 seed is probably better to get than the #2 seed. The Marlins would be the worst record of the 2nd place teams.

[Cubswin11]

Good. If the bats are gonna stay sucky, bring in the weather that makes the other teams suck too.

 

[Brian]

The #3 seed is probably better to get than the #2 seed. The Marlins would be the worst record of the 2nd place teams.

 

The Cubs facing any baseball team right now isn't that advantageous

[soccer10k]

I assume it's tiebreaker related but according to Fangraphs, the Cards have a better chance of finishing 1st and 2nd in the division than the Reds do but a worse chance of making the playoffs (87.7 for the Reds and 86.7 for the Cards).

 

I don't think Fangraphs has the tiebreakers set up properly though. They list Cincy at 0.1 to win the division but that's not possible. Best they can do is tie the Cubs and the Cubs would win a H2H tiebreaker with them and Cincy went 4-6 against St. Louis also so they'd lose a 3-way tiebreaker as well. Plus Cincy plays the Twins so it's not like they're favored to win 2 or 3 games this weekend.

[soccer10k]

So if the Brewers beat the Cards the next two days, the Phillies beat the Rays twice and the Giants split with the Padres, then the Cards split with Detroit, who gets in? They’d all be 30-30. Could be even crazier if Miami loses tomorrow and Cincy loses twice. Even though they’d both be in, it would muddle up 2nd and 3rd.

[bukie]

So if the Brewers beat the Cards the next two days, the Phillies beat the Rays twice and the Giants split with the Padres, then the Cards split with Detroit, who gets in? They’d all be 30-30. Could be even crazier if Miami loses tomorrow and Cincy loses twice. Even though they’d both be in, it would muddle up 2nd and 3rd.

 

Here's how that would shake out:

5. Marlins (7-3 vs PHI to win tiebreaker with them, 21-19 in NL ties with Cardinals, 11-9 in last 20 NL games beats Cards 10-10)

6. Cardinals (10-10 vs CIN and MIL to tie them, 21-19 in division beats MIL 20-20, 6-4 vs CIN to win that tiebreaker, 21-19 ties Marlins, 10-10 in last 20 loses last 20 tiebreaker to Marlins' 11-9)

7. Reds (6-4 vs MIL to win tiebreaker, 21-19 vs NL to tie with PHI and eliminate SFG, 12-8 in last 20 NL beats PHI 8-12)

8. Phillies (21-19 vs NL beats MIL 20-20 and SFG 19-21)

[bukie]

Playoff update 9/26:

 

Current AL seedings (magic #, bold = clinched that seed):

1. Rays 39-20 (X)

2. Twins 36-23 (X)

3. Athletics 35-24 (X)

4. White Sox 35-24 (X)

5. Yankees 33-26 (X)

6. Astros 29-30 (X)

7. Indians 34-25 (X)

8. Blue Jays 32-27 (X)

-----------------------------

Eliminated:

9. Mariners 27-32

10. Angels 26-32

11. Royals 25-34

12. Orioles 24-35

13. Tigers 23-34

14. Red Sox 22-36

15. Rangers 21-38

 

Current NL seedings (magic #, bol = clinched that seed):

1. Dodgers 41-17 (X)

2. Braves 35-23 (X)

3. Cubs 33-26 (X)

4. Padres 35-23 (X)

5. Reds 30-29 (X)

6. Marlins 30-29 (X)

7. Cardinals 29-28 (2)

8. Giants 29-29 (2)

----------------------------

Outside looking in (elimination #):

9. Brewers 29-30 (2)

10. Phillies 28-31 (1)

---------------------------

Eliminated:

11. Mets 26-33

12. Rockies 25-33

13. Nationals 25-34

14. Diamondbacks 24-34

15. Pirates 19-40

 

Final day clinches:

AL:

- Twins clinch AL Central with a win or White Sox loss, clinch 2 seed with a win or A's and White Sox losses, 4 seed with a loss and White Sox win.

- White Sox clinch AL Central and 2 seed with a win and Twins loss, clinch 4 seed with a win or Indians loss, 7 seed with a loss and Indians loss.

- A's clinch 2 seed with a win and losses by Twins and White Sox, 3 seed otherwise.

- Yankees clinch 5 seed with a win or Blue Jays loss, 8 seed with a loss and Blue Jays win.

- Indians clinch 4 seed with a win and White Sox loss, 7 seed otherwise

- Blue Jays clinch 5 seed with a win and Yankees loss, 8 seed otherwise

 

NL:

- Reds clinch 5 seed with a win and Cardinals loss, they win tiebreakers vs Marlins, Brewers and Giants, lose tiebreaker vs Cards

- Marlins clinch 5 seed with a win and Reds loss or Cardinals win, they win tiebreakers vs Cardinals, Brewers and Giants, lose tiebreaker vs Reds

- Cards clinch a playoff spot with a win vs Brewers, can still clinch with a loss if Giants lose at least once and/or Cards sweep Tigers. Cards win tiebreakers vs Reds and Giants, lose vs. Marlins, and Brewers still hinges on tomorrow's game.

- Brewers clinch a playoff spot with a win and either Giants lose 1 or Cards lose 1 vs Tigers. Brewers can still make playoffs with a loss but would need Giants to lose 2 and Phils to lose tomorrow. Brewers win tiebreaker vs Giants, lose vs Reds and Phillies, Cards hinges on tomorrow's game.

- Giants clinch a playoff spot with 2 wins, or a win and Brewers loss or Cards lose 3. Giants lose all tiebreakers.

- Phils clinch a playoff spot with a win + Brewers loss + 2 Giants losses. Can only be the 8 seed, and only in that scenario as they win tiebreakers vs Giants and Brewers.

[UMFan83]

BTW horsefeathers the cardinals for making all these playoff scenarios as complicated as horsefeathers. Just another gift to the baseball world from those douchebags

[soccer10k]

BTW horsefeathers the cardinals for making all these playoff scenarios as complicated as horsefeathers. Just another gift to the baseball world from those douchebags

 

I just want them to lose tomorrow because they’re probably in if they win and I want them to both have a chance to miss the playoffs and to have to play on Monday.

[bukie]

BTW horsefeathers the cardinals for making all these playoff scenarios as complicated as horsefeathers. Just another gift to the baseball world from those douchebags

 

I just want them to lose tomorrow because they’re probably in if they win and I want them to both have a chance to miss the playoffs and to have to play on Monday.

They are definitely in with a win and wouldn't have to play the extra games. Even if the Cards lose to the Brewers tomorrow, it would still require at least 1 Giants win to play the Tigers games.

[soccer10k]

BTW horsefeathers the cardinals for making all these playoff scenarios as complicated as horsefeathers. Just another gift to the baseball world from those douchebags

 

I just want them to lose tomorrow because they’re probably in if they win and I want them to both have a chance to miss the playoffs and to have to play on Monday.

They are definitely in with a win and wouldn't have to play the extra games. Even if the Cards lose to the Brewers tomorrow, it would still require at least 1 Giants win to play the Tigers games.

 

So Brewers win and Giants lose and the Central gets 4 playoff teams? Wild.