Offseason Top Prospect Lists

[CaliforniaRaisin]

BA has their Cubs' top 10 list coming out on 12/2. BP has theirs coming out on 1/7.

 

We usually have a specific thread each year so let's try to toss all of them in here.

[Regular Show]

BA has their Cubs' top 10 list coming out on 12/2. BP has theirs coming out on 1/7.

 

We usually have a specific thread each year so let's try to toss all of them in here.

 

I also believe the Cubs' prospect list for Fangraphs will be published in January. Bill Mitchell does the Cubs list for BA right?

[Bertz]

The Future Lineup thing has always been a just-for-fun don't think too hard about it sort of thing. That being said given that my complaint about them the past few years has been sloppiness, it's not super reassuring that they have a bunch of guys who will have long-since been FAs on there.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

1. Brailyn Márquez

2. Nico Hoerner

3. Brennen Davis

4. Miguel Amaya

5. Chase Strumpf

6. Cole Roederer

7. Ryan Jensen

8. Ethan Hearn

9. Riley Thompson

10. Cory Abbott

 

They dropped a 60 FV on Brailyn. Considering how consistently they rated Hoerner in the top 50 all season, it’s reasonable to expect BA will have two Cubs in their top 50 with Brailyn on the fast track for top 20 midseason if he can stay healthy.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Best Hitter for Average: Nico Hoerner

Best Power Hitter: Brennen Davis

Best Strike-Zone Discipline: Nico Hoerner

Fastest Baserunner: Edmond Americaan

Best Athlete: Brennen Davis

Best Fastball: Brailyn Marquez

Best Curveball: Jack Patterson

Best Slider: Cory Abbott

Best Changeup: Kohl Franklin

Best Control: Tyson Miller

Best Defensive Catcher: Miguel Amaya

Best Defensive Infielder: Nico Hoerner

Best Infield Arm: Luis Verdugo

Best Defensive Outfielder: Brennen Davis

Best Outfield Arm: Eddy Martinez

[CubsWin]

1. Brailyn Márquez

2. Nico Hoerner

3. Brennen Davis

4. Miguel Amaya

5. Chase Strumpf

6. Cole Roederer

7. Ryan Jensen

8. Ethan Hearn

9. Riley Thompson

10. Cory Abbott

 

They dropped a 60 FV on Brailyn. Considering how consistently they rated Hoerner in the top 50 all season, it’s reasonable to expect BA will have two Cubs in their top 50 with Brailyn on the fast track for top 20 midseason if he can stay healthy.

Gotta like Brailyn gettin some likely top 50 love. I sure hope Ethan Hearn lives up to that ranking.

 

I'd like to hear people's thoughts on whether Riley Thompson is a better prospect than Kohl Franklin. I go back and forth between those two.

[Hrubes20]

1. Brailyn Márquez

2. Nico Hoerner

3. Brennen Davis

4. Miguel Amaya

5. Chase Strumpf

6. Cole Roederer

7. Ryan Jensen

8. Ethan Hearn

9. Riley Thompson

10. Cory Abbott

 

They dropped a 60 FV on Brailyn. Considering how consistently they rated Hoerner in the top 50 all season, it’s reasonable to expect BA will have two Cubs in their top 50 with Brailyn on the fast track for top 20 midseason if he can stay healthy.

Gotta like Brailyn gettin some likely top 50 love. I sure hope Ethan Hearn lives up to that ranking.

 

I'd like to hear people's thoughts on whether Riley Thompson is a better prospect than Kohl Franklin. I go back and forth between those two.

 

I prefer Franklin due to the changeup, the improving velocity, and the lack of a prior arm surgery.

[Post Count Padder]

Interesting list. Some of the pitcher placements seem questionable but many of the pitchers in our system are interchangeable. My biggest surprise was the low placement of Ademan.

[Bertz]

 

Marquez comes in at #9, and is credited with the best fastball among the group.

[Cubswin11]

[Hrubes20]

Whoa good stuff getting national recognition so quickly...I'm getting more confident they can trade for someone badass like Lindor

 

I'm the low guy on Strumpf, so I would absolutely love a way to deal him for something valuable at the big league level.

[imb]

Whoa good stuff getting national recognition so quickly...I'm getting more confident they can trade for someone badass like Lindor

 

what from the last two years would make you think this is something they're remotely interested in doing

[CaliforniaRaisin]

BA’s of 100 list is out. The Cubs have two top-40 prospects, three in the top 100: https://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/2020-top-100-prospects/

 

37. Brailyn Márquez

Notes:

ETA: 2022

Final 2019 Ranking: 92

Tools: Fastball: 80 | Slider: 60 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 50

2019 Average Fastball Velo: 97

 

Skinny: The big, hard-throwing lefty became the talk of the lower levels last year with his 100-mph fastball and rapidly improving command. As his secondaries and fitness improve, Marquez has a chance to be the Cubs’ best homegrown pitcher since Carlos Zambrano.

40. Nico Hoerner

Notes:

ETA: 2020

Final 2019 Ranking: 39

Tools: Hit: 60 | Power: 50 | Run: 55 | Fielding: 50 | Arm: 50

2019 Average Exit Velo: 88

 

Skinny: Hoerner missed two months with a wrist fracture and still reached the majors in his first full season, taking over as the Cubs everyday shortstop in September. With advanced hitting ability and exceptional feel for the game, Hoerner is the next in line of Cubs homegrown, productive position players.

94. Brennen Davis

ETA: 2022

Final 2019 Ranking: Unranked

Tools: Hit: 50 | Power: 60 | Run: 60 | Fielding: 50 | Arm: 60

2019 Average Exit Velo: 88

 

Skinny: The Cubs were taking a chance when they drafted Davis as he had less of a track record than many of the top prep bats in the 2018 class. So far it looks like they picked a winner. Davis is athletic, fast and strong and he impressed at the plate in an injury-shortened 2019 season.

[Bertz]

 

So the Cubs have two top 50 prospects, but as recently as August had the worst farm system in baseball? Also. I'm really hoping Amaya is on the list and Mark just missed him?

 

I've said this a bunch over the last ~year but I don't think BA is in a good place right now.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

So the Cubs have two top 50 prospects, but as recently as August had the worst farm system in baseball? Also. I'm really hoping Amaya is on the list and Mark just missed him?

 

I've said this a bunch over the last ~year but I don't think BA is in a good place right now.

 

No Amaya, look at the post just above yours.

 

I have issues with BA (they’ve lost a LOT of good talent) but they’re likely going to be the highest of national publications this offseason, both with number of prospects in the top 100 and highest ranking with Brailyn at 37.

 

I’m with you - I think the big 4 all are top 100 prospects but it doesn’t appear as though any major publication agrees.

[Bertz]

 

So the Cubs have two top 50 prospects, but as recently as August had the worst farm system in baseball? Also. I'm really hoping Amaya is on the list and Mark just missed him?

 

I've said this a bunch over the last ~year but I don't think BA is in a good place right now.

 

No Amaya, look at the post just above yours.

 

Awesome, thanks for posting the reports Raisin. That's certainly interesting. I would have thought Amaya would be the one guy in the system on all post-season lists. I feel like it's a lot harder to justify Nico as a top 50 guy than Amaya as not even on the list.

 

Also, that EV is more pedestrian for Davis than I was hoping to see. I wonder what he tops out at.

[Post Count Padder]

That's pretty cool to have 3 top 100 prospects but I'm shocked that Amaya isn't there. He'd have to have just missed right?

[CaliforniaRaisin]

That's pretty cool to have 3 top 100 prospects but I'm shocked that Amaya isn't there. He'd have to have just missed right?

 

Amaya and Roederer each made BA's top 198: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/notable-mlb-prospects-who-missed-the-2020-top-100/

 

Baseball America's editors compile individual Top 150 lists. Those 150s are then compiled into a joint ranking (150 points for the No. 1 prospect, 1 point for the 150th prospect).

 

That compiled ranking is then used as the starting point for a series of lengthy meetings where we discuss, modify and re-rank the Top 100. After two days of meetings, we have a Top 100 Prospects list.

 

We then send that to pro scouting directors and other MLB front office officials, soliciting their feedback. We then hold one more lengthy meeting to discuss where we need to tweak the rankings further. This Top 100 Prospects list is the final result.

 

As always, there are a large number of prospects who made at least one Top 150 but did not make the final Top 100--this year we had 98 other names who were considered.

 

If you're scouting Amaya's stat line, he had a down year but if you consider his league/ballpark, he was well above league average. And that doesn't even consider his age and defense.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

MLB Pipeline will release their top 100 this Saturday.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Players We Believe Could Make The 2021 Top 100:

 

Miguel Amaya, C, Cubs: A steadily productive hitter with straightaway power whose offense has been muted by pitchers’ parks in South Bend and Myrtle Beach. Amaya is still very young, and getting away from pitcher-friendly environments could give him an offensive boost and the corresponding breakout.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

BA Chat:

 

Dan (Chicago): I’m confused about Miguel Amaya being left out of the top 100 (and the just missed list). He was the youngest qualified position player in his league, played at the most demanding position, in a pitchers league, had great underlying metrics (K%, BB%, ISO), and a 122 wRC+. What am I missing?

 

Kyle Glaser: Amaya wasn't far off. Josh Norris, who does our Cubs list for us, came back with reports indicating Amaya was seen as more of a solid all-around player and was lacking the carrying tools needed to give him first-division regular or All-Star potential. Given his youth and position though, you are correct, there is reason to be optimistic, and in the grand scheme, being just off the Top 100 still means you're a dang good prospect.

 

Bill (PA): Some outlets are way out ahead on Brennen Davis and Kristian Robinson, but you have them ranked much lower. Did front office feedback fuel that, or was there more concern among your team about the risks keeping them from their ceilings?

 

Kyle Glaser: You're still talking about two very young players with very small sample sizes at the lowest levels of the minors. They're both very, very promising, but both have enough concerns about their pure contact ability to hold them back until they reach higher levels.

 

Navin (Pasadena, Ca): How close is the gap between Brennen Davis (94) and Miguel Amaya (unrated but included in the next 98 list BA publishes yesterday)?

 

Kyle Glaser: Pretty close. Davis was No. 3 on the Cubs list and Amaya was No. 4. Amaya was a lot closer to No. 100 than he was to No. 150 in our voting. There's not a huge separation, at all.

 

Michael (Regina, SK): Does Nico Hoerner make the Cubs starting roster day 1 as their 2nd baseman and does he profile as the leadoff hitter?

 

Kyle Glaser: It's certainly possible. And think more of a No. 2 table-setter type than pure leadoff hitter.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Davis hit .306 with a .346 BABIP and a sub-20% K rate in full-season ball at age 19. The numbers aren't everything, but you would think if contact was going to derail him that those numbers wouldn't be as strong as they are.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Hoerner at 51, Marquez at 68, Davis at 78, Amaya at 95 for MLB's top 100

 

Weird list this year with alot of new or inexperienced prospects

 

Looks like snubs are all from other teams: Isaac Paredes SS, Josh Lowe CF (Brent Honeywell is at 91 OTOH), Lewin Diaz 1B, Tyler Stephenson C

 

Here’s the list: http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2020?list=prospects

 

FYI, Paredes was 100 for BA and Lowe, Díaz and Stephenson didn’t make their list.

[weis21]

I’ll more than likely not lose sleep regardless

[Guancous]

Baseball Prospectus:

 

Hoerner: 41

Amaya: 78

Marquez: 84

Davis: 92