2020 roster

[Cubswin11]

I’d rather re-sign Castellanos I think than get Myers and take on his money commitment the next 2 years after this.

 

What's the benefit of locking up a limited player for 4-5 years vs Myers' two? If the Cubs can walk away with some pitching, Margot, and/or maybe even get Hedges thrown in too that only adds to the value of acquiring Myers over paying Castellanos. From there he's playing next year at 29 to Castellanos' 28, has more defensive flexibility, a much shorter contract, and unlike Castellanos will take a walk...

I still think Castellanos only ends up costing like 3/40-4/50 (or even gets Moustakas’d and does a 1 year deal). I think he’s gonna make less than Myers is owed over the next 3 years. Just not a fan of adding all that Myers money over the next two years after this year, he isn’t worth it and I want maximum flexibility. I’d also rather add neither and use the money more wisely not only for this year but the next few years.

Edited October 28, 2019 by Cubswin11

[Cubswin11]

I still think Castellanos only ends up costing like 3/40-4/50 (or even gets Moustakas’d and does a 1 year deal). I think he’s gonna make less than Myers is owed over the next 3 years. Just not a fan of adding all that Myers money over the next two years after this year, he isn’t worth it and I want maximum flexibility.

 

Maximum flexibility IMO is not possibly adding a year to the deal for a slightly younger player with fewer skills. Myers is more flexible on the field and with even some of Castellanos' Cubs luck within the lineup. From there, the whole thing Bertz pointed out is that Myers works with the LT without too much straining - basically ride out 2020 - *and offers the Cubs an opportunity to get a cheap possibly very high utility young player* from a team with some likable talent they might actually be willing to part with

The LT hit would be about the same and the real dollars paid out will be significantly less to Castellanos ($11-13 mil a year vs $22 mil or so). That’s more flexible, imo. I’m really not interested in either and taking on all that Myers money to get a possibly good utility player isn’t worth it to me. There’s easier and far less cheaper ways to accomplish that.

[Bertz]

I’d rather re-sign Castellanos I think than get Myers and take on his money commitment the next 2 years after this. I also kind want to keep Chatwood and see what he does as a RP this year. I don’t thinks it’s all that important to find a deal to move him unless we are getting the money savings this year and moving forward.

 

I liked what Castellanos brought to the roster a lot. And the idea with Myers is to add a B- approximation AND a talented rookie for approximately what you'd pay NC directly. Given the number of holes on the roster, I just don't think we can make Castellanos work. We have, IMO, 6 problem spots on the current team, and I'd want to add external help for at least four of them prior to ST:

 

- High End reliever

- CF

- 5th starter

- 2B

- Mid-level reliever

- Bench guy who mashes lefties

 

Filling two of those holes while keeping payroll nearly flat and not expending any prospects is a big win IMO. Relatedly, I kind of hate the idea of Chatwood in the pen. He'll probably be solid there, but $13M is far too much for "probably solid." IMO give him the 5th starter job or ship him out.

[Cubswin11]

The Angels outrighted Tropeano, I’ve always liked him as a target to turn from a starter to reliever

[Cubswin11]

I’d rather re-sign Castellanos I think than get Myers and take on his money commitment the next 2 years after this. I also kind want to keep Chatwood and see what he does as a RP this year. I don’t thinks it’s all that important to find a deal to move him unless we are getting the money savings this year and moving forward.

 

I liked what Castellanos brought to the roster a lot. And the idea with Myers is to add a B- approximation AND a talented rookie for approximately what you'd pay NC directly. Given the number of holes on the roster, I just don't think we can make Castellanos work. We have, IMO, 6 problem spots on the current team, and I'd want to add external help for at least four of them prior to ST:

 

- High End reliever

- CF

- 5th starter

- 2B

- Mid-level reliever

- Bench guy who mashes lefties

 

Filling two of those holes while keeping payroll nearly flat and not expending any prospects is a big win IMO. Relatedly, I kind of hate the idea of Chatwood in the pen. He'll probably be solid there, but $13M is far too much for "probably solid." IMO give him the 5th starter job or ship him out.

That’s fair, it isn’t a bad plan to go about filling out the roster. I just think we could find similar deals to round out the roster without taking on Myers money after this year. I also just don’t really like Myers offensive profile, he had ugly contact and K-rate numbers this year.

Edited October 28, 2019 by Cubswin11

[muntjack]

Wil Meyers

 

2016: .341 wOBA

 

2017: .335 wOBA

 

2018: .328 wOBA

 

2019: .316 wOBA

 

2019 was also his best year against LHP (.368 wOBA) and he had a K rate of almost 40% against them.

 

 

FWIW Castellanos' worst wOBA in those 4 years was .341 in '17 and against LHP in 2019 he put up a .370 wOBA

 

To me, these #s indicate that Meyers is really in no way an approximation (even a B- approximation) of Castellanos offensively.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

IMO, it's a lot easier to find someone to be a lefty mashing 1B/LF than it is to be a competent swingman. With that in mind, trading Myers for Chatwood puts you in a hole because you need to fill a more difficult role and you haven't gained anything from a LT payroll perspective. If the thing you get with Myers is worthwhile that can be worth it, but I'm skeptical that type of deal could come to fruition.

[Cubswin11]

Citing OBP as a reason to acquire Lindor seems unusual. Seeing as he’s like a career 7-8% BB guy and has like a .340 career OBP.

[Cubswin11]

Citing OBP as a reason to acquire Lindor seems unusual. Seeing as he’s like a career 7-8% BB guy and has like a .340 career OBP.

 

.347 career OBP with 3 of the seasons in the mid-.350s, by comparison ML SS since 2015 have a like a .315 OBP as a whole. He does it while carrying a 14% K rate (7% SwStr) in the MLs from ages 21-25 with power, carried a 10+% walk rate throughout most of the minors, sees a ton of first pitch balls...Lindor's going to be such a beast for whoever gets him next and probably the one after that too, tons of room to get better and already amazing

OBP isn’t a problem for him and he gets on base well but he’s not an OBP machine. Of all the things he does, citing OBP as a reason a team wants him seems off. I prefer Mookie to him over the next big FAs. I think Mookie’s skill set ages better, Lindor has already dealt with injuries and athleticism is a huge part of his game. I wouldn’t bet on him being a ton better at 26 onwards or another leap being in there.

[squally1313]

Citing OBP in a five game sample as the reason for anything seems incredibly dumb, especially when they were 5th in the league in OBP for the season, and second in the NL.

[Cubswin11]

Citing OBP in a five game sample as the reason for anything seems incredibly dumb, especially when they were 5th in the league in OBP for the season, and second in the NL.

Well yeah, that too. It’s like the Hendry era teams who’d lose in the playoffs and cite like no having left handed hitting power, LH reliever, etc as not winning and the way they lost in the playoffs dictated what they did in the offseason.

Edited October 28, 2019 by Cubswin11

[Derwood]

What is Castellanos' value when the ball is de-juiced and all the homers turn back into 360 foot fly balls?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

What is Castellanos' value when the ball is de-juiced and all the homers turn back into 360 foot fly balls?

 

He led MLB in doubles and the only people within 14 were playing with the green monster.

[Derwood]

What is Castellanos' value when the ball is de-juiced and all the homers turn back into 360 foot fly balls?

 

He led MLB in doubles and the only people within 14 were playing with the green monster.

 

So what happens when those 110 mph gappers turn into 90mph fly balls when the ball is de-juiced?

[Cubswin11]

What is Castellanos' value when the ball is de-juiced and all the homers turn back into 360 foot fly balls?

 

He led MLB in doubles and the only people within 14 were playing with the green monster.

 

So what happens when those 110 mph gappers turn into 90mph fly balls when the ball is de-juiced?

He will still probably be a pretty decent hitter. In 2015 as a 22/23 year old he hit 15 HRs and 33 doubles. In 2016 as a 23/24 year old he hit .285/.331/.496 with 18 Dongs in 110 games when the ball wasn’t juiced. From his debut in 2013 through 2016 he hit .265/.311/.430 with 44 Dongs and 89 doubles in 1,600 PAs.

[Cubswin11]

How come it's so easy to ignore that Castellanos has a career .326 OBP, a near 4/1 K:BB in his career, runs a .350 BABIP, and all that comes with not very good defense or base running plus requires a FA contract to keep?

I don’t think anyone is ignoring that. Nobody here seems to be beating the drum to bring him back. He has managed to be a pretty decent hitter since 2016 with his profile, though. He can make it work you’d think. But again, it seems like everyone here is fine letting him walk (especially for the 4-5+ year deal at 15-20 aav he allegedly wants). Nobody seems to be saying we should do that and everyone knows his limitations. It’s basically “hey he was a good and fun player for us but we know it was an unsustainable heater and he isn’t worth bringing back at anything close to what he is asking for since he’s a limited player but hey if he finds himself in a Moustakas/Dexter situation in February maybe it’s worth looking at a 1 year deal or cheap 3 year deal.” Type thing.

[Banedon]

What is Castellanos' value when the ball is de-juiced and all the homers turn back into 360 foot fly balls?

 

He led MLB in doubles and the only people within 14 were playing with the green monster.

 

So what happens when those 110 mph gappers turn into 90mph fly balls when the ball is de-juiced?

 

What makes you think the ball will be de-juiced? I think MLB loves the added offense.

[Cubswin11]

 

He led MLB in doubles and the only people within 14 were playing with the green monster.

 

So what happens when those 110 mph gappers turn into 90mph fly balls when the ball is de-juiced?

 

What makes you think the ball will be de-juiced? I think MLB loves the added offense.

There was a report before the playoffs they’re going to make changes to the ball

[Transmogrified Tiger]

What is Castellanos' value when the ball is de-juiced and all the homers turn back into 360 foot fly balls?

 

He led MLB in doubles and the only people within 14 were playing with the green monster.

 

So what happens when those 110 mph gappers turn into 90mph fly balls when the ball is de-juiced?

 

Then everyone else's 110 mph gappers turn into 90 mph fly balls and his value remains the same? I don't think you're making as profound a point as you think you are here.

[squally1313]

 

He led MLB in doubles and the only people within 14 were playing with the green monster.

 

So what happens when those 110 mph gappers turn into 90mph fly balls when the ball is de-juiced?

 

Then everyone else's 110 mph gappers turn into 90 mph fly balls and his value remains the same? I don't think you're making as profound a point as you think you are here.

You're better than me at this, but I immediately tune out almost every time someone brings up the new ball/old ball thing in terms of roster design. Everyone plays with the same ball. It's like arguing what would happen if they made it 4 outs per inning instead of 3. Good players will remain good players.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

 

So what happens when those 110 mph gappers turn into 90mph fly balls when the ball is de-juiced?

 

Then everyone else's 110 mph gappers turn into 90 mph fly balls and his value remains the same? I don't think you're making as profound a point as you think you are here.

You're better than me at this, but I immediately tune out almost every time someone brings up the new ball/old ball thing in terms of roster design. Everyone plays with the same ball. It's like arguing what would happen if they made it 4 outs per inning instead of 3. Good players will remain good players.

 

I do think there's value in thinking about who might be helped/hurt by changes, after all players don't all hit the ball the same. In this case we're just kinda aimlessly assuming Castellanos will be worse off because.....? Anecdotally or numerically I can't see anything that makes me think he would translate much differently in either direction.

[Derwood]

 

He led MLB in doubles and the only people within 14 were playing with the green monster.

 

So what happens when those 110 mph gappers turn into 90mph fly balls when the ball is de-juiced?

 

Then everyone else's 110 mph gappers turn into 90 mph fly balls and his value remains the same? I don't think you're making as profound a point as you think you are here.

 

I'm not trying to make a profound point. I'm asking if he's less valuable with a new ball, and how that affects what one would reasonably sign him for

[Cubswin11]

 

So what happens when those 110 mph gappers turn into 90mph fly balls when the ball is de-juiced?

 

Then everyone else's 110 mph gappers turn into 90 mph fly balls and his value remains the same? I don't think you're making as profound a point as you think you are here.

 

I'm not trying to make a profound point. I'm asking if he's less valuable with a new ball, and how that affects what one would reasonably sign him for

I pointed out a few posts up that he hit decently well (especially for power) as a 21-24 year old in his first few years of the old ball. The ball isn’t going to affect his value, it’s the 2-4 other flaws everyone has pointed out about him (defense, low BB rate, below to average contact rate, etc.)

[Bertz]

2018 had the least....uhhh...juicy?...ball of the last 5 years, and Castellanos had his career year. He's not just some mirage with the bat.

 

The guys who are going to be hurt most by fixing the ball are the Tommy La Stellas and Eric Sogards of the world.

Sluggers are, if anything, going to be helped because fewer of their dongs are artificial.

Edited October 29, 2019 by Bertz

[chopsx9]

 

Then everyone else's 110 mph gappers turn into 90 mph fly balls and his value remains the same? I don't think you're making as profound a point as you think you are here.

 

I'm not trying to make a profound point. I'm asking if he's less valuable with a new ball, and how that affects what one would reasonably sign him for

I pointed out a few posts up that he hit decently well (especially for power) as a 21-24 year old in his first few years of the old ball. The ball isn’t going to affect his value, it’s the 2-4 other flaws everyone has pointed out about him (defense, low BB rate, below to average contact rate, etc.)

Didn't somebody put up stadium overlay showing all the outs in Tiger Stadium that would have been HRs in Wrigley? Sometimes moves make a difference.

That being said, you never really know.

Remember when Soriano's move to Washington was going to sap his power and how Adrian Gonzalez's power was going to explode once he got out of San Diego?