2020 roster

[Backtobanks]

Marte is a good player, but he's a tough fit on this team.

He has a severe and consistent platoon split. Over the last three years, he has a 76 wRC+ against lefties, and a 121 against righties. For reference, Schwarber is at 85 and 120. He was also a really bad CF last year defensively.

 

That doesn't mean you can't go after him, he's a good player, but you basically have to pair him with with a Kevin Pillar type. I feel like if you have to get a RH caddy and deal with so-so defense either way, I'd probably prefer shifting Heyward over and finding a full time RF.

 

Agreed. Plus between trade cost, his age, the length of his contract, and trade cost he just doesn't seem like an ideal target. Much prefer Bradley Jr. or Margot among guys rumored to be available this offseason through trade

 

The only disadvantage is the trade cost. He is a much better hitter than either Margot or Bradley and his splits aren't any worse than theirs. The length of his contract pretty much lines up with the window for the core of the Cubs.

[Tim]

Marte is a good player, but he's a tough fit on this team.

He has a severe and consistent platoon split. Over the last three years, he has a 76 wRC+ against lefties, and a 121 against righties. For reference, Schwarber is at 85 and 120. He was also a really bad CF last year defensively.

 

That doesn't mean you can't go after him, he's a good player, but you basically have to pair him with with a Kevin Pillar type. I feel like if you have to get a RH caddy and deal with so-so defense either way, I'd probably prefer shifting Heyward over and finding a full time RF.

 

Agreed. Plus between trade cost, his age, the length of his contract, and trade cost he just doesn't seem like an ideal target. Much prefer Bradley Jr. or Margot among guys rumored to be available this offseason through trade

 

The only disadvantage is the trade cost. He is a much better hitter than either Margot or Bradley and his splits aren't any worse than theirs. The length of his contract pretty much lines up with the window for the core of the Cubs.

When the trade cost is the best hiring catcher in baseball, it is a significant disadvantage

[Sammy Sofa]

When the trade cost is the best hiring catcher in baseball

 

Man, look at this Galaxy Brained FO thinking outside of the box like that.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The trade proposals are going to be obviously bad, you don't have to respond to them.

[Cubswin11]

I think this whole thing really ups the chances he’s moved this offseason.

 

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[jersey cubs fan]

Compromise should be he becomes free agent at 2021 all star break.

[Cubswin11]

I think this whole thing really ups the chances he’s moved this offseason.

 

How/Why? Its a horrendous look to trade your best player, who doesnt even have serious comp for that title on the team, because you feel he is being a little uppity over a legit greivance. Good luck keeping or attracting talent moving forward.

I think it’s just pretty clear that relationship is strained and him and Boras (rightfully so) are still pissed about this and I just see it being hard to ever have good faith negotiations on an extension or once he hits FA to come back. He’s as good as gone in 2 years (or hopefully not 1). Trading him would bring back a nice haul and help extend a window past the next two years. Shift focus to either Rendon this offseason or Mookie next year as the big money spend.

[Cubswin11]

I think it’s just pretty clear that relationship is strained and him and Boras (rightfully so) are still pissed about this and I just see it being hard to ever have good faith negotiations on an extension or once he hits FA to come back. He’s as good as gone in 2 years (or hopefully not 1). Trading him would bring back a nice haul and help extend a window past the next two years. Shift focus to either Rendon this offseason or Mookie next year as the big money spend.

 

You just said the relationship is strained and they'd be trading him in that context over money. Where is the incentive for teams to offer an actual nice haul? If it's as bad as you imagine, we all know Boras loves eliminating any of the richest teams from signingh his clients obvy, what's the Cubs' incentives to hold out for a worthwhile haul?

 

I think Betts' FA is very much in focus right now even with the burden of Bryant on the payroll

He’s still one of the better players in baseball over the last few years, with presumably 2 years left of control. Teams will pay up if he’s available. Sure some teams will lowball (at least to start) but there will be multiple teams lining up to talk trade, something will shake loose and eventually someone will pay what’s commensurate with his value.

[Cubswin11]

All, all teams will lowball because you've just set up a context where the Cubs are the desperate guys

 

Well then they won’t trade him if they’re being offered 30 cents on the dollar, they’re not that desperate. I’d guess some teams step up and pay full freight, however.

[Backtobanks]

 

Agreed. Plus between trade cost, his age, the length of his contract, and trade cost he just doesn't seem like an ideal target. Much prefer Bradley Jr. or Margot among guys rumored to be available this offseason through trade

 

The only disadvantage is the trade cost. He is a much better hitter than either Margot or Bradley and his splits aren't any worse than theirs. The length of his contract pretty much lines up with the window for the core of the Cubs.

When the trade cost is the best hiring catcher in baseball, it is a significant disadvantage

 

I would gladly switch Caratini with Contreras in the trade proposal, but I doubt the Pirates would be interested. Going by what Epstein said about making a big change and figuring in our budget / mediocre farm system, one of our core players looks to be on the block. I can't see Rizzo or Baez being traded, which pretty much leaves Contreras or Bryant. Depending on the return, we would have a big downgrade at 3B or a lesser downgrade at catcher. Without trading one of the "core four", the best trade assets have very limited value on the trading block.

[Cubswin11]

 

The only disadvantage is the trade cost. He is a much better hitter than either Margot or Bradley and his splits aren't any worse than theirs. The length of his contract pretty much lines up with the window for the core of the Cubs.

When the trade cost is the best hiring catcher in baseball, it is a significant disadvantage

 

I would gladly switch Caratini with Contreras in the trade proposal, but I doubt the Pirates would be interested. Going by what Epstein said about making a big change and figuring in our budget / mediocre farm system, one of our core players looks to be on the block. I can't see Rizzo or Baez being traded, which pretty much leaves Contreras or Bryant. Depending on the return, we would have a big downgrade at 3B or a lesser downgrade at catcher. Without trading one of the "core four", the best trade assets have very limited value on the trading block.

When did he say this in regards to the roster? I don’t think he’s spoken any absolutes about it, it’s all been GM speak. The big change stuff, that was stated clearly/imminent at least, was more FO and coaching directed with changing things (and they already are on their way to doing it).

[squally1313]

When the trade cost is the best hiring catcher in baseball, it is a significant disadvantage

 

I would gladly switch Caratini with Contreras in the trade proposal, but I doubt the Pirates would be interested. Going by what Epstein said about making a big change and figuring in our budget / mediocre farm system, one of our core players looks to be on the block. I can't see Rizzo or Baez being traded, which pretty much leaves Contreras or Bryant. Depending on the return, we would have a big downgrade at 3B or a lesser downgrade at catcher. Without trading one of the "core four", the best trade assets have very limited value on the trading block.

When did he say this in regards to the roster? I don’t think he’s spoken any absolutes about it, it’s all been GM speak. The big change stuff, that was stated clearly/imminent at least, was more FO and coaching directed with changing things (and they already are on their way to doing it).

Yeah seriously, and even if he did say that, who cares. You think Jed is going to come rushing in next February with some transcript and be like "remember when you said this", and Theo is going to just open up the trading block like on the Show and add Contreras real quick? He can bring back good value, and if there's a deal that provides a clear upgrade elsewhere that outweighs losing him, go for it. But also, that applies to everyone on the team.

[Backtobanks]

When the trade cost is the best hiring catcher in baseball, it is a significant disadvantage

 

I would gladly switch Caratini with Contreras in the trade proposal, but I doubt the Pirates would be interested. Going by what Epstein said about making a big change and figuring in our budget / mediocre farm system, one of our core players looks to be on the block. I can't see Rizzo or Baez being traded, which pretty much leaves Contreras or Bryant. Depending on the return, we would have a big downgrade at 3B or a lesser downgrade at catcher. Without trading one of the "core four", the best trade assets have very limited value on the trading block.

When did he say this in regards to the roster? I don’t think he’s spoken any absolutes about it, it’s all been GM speak. The big change stuff, that was stated clearly/imminent at least, was more FO and coaching directed with changing things (and they already are on their way to doing it).

 

If "making a big change" only refers to making FO and coaching changes (and not the roster), we will be in for a long summer unless all of our players play at their peak potential and the Cards and Brewers fall off.

[Cubswin11]

I was interested in both, to varying degrees, as CF options for us. Looks like we can cross both off.

 

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[Backtobanks]

Grandal among most divisive free agents

 

Oct. 24: In this year's free-agent class, there are a handful of players whose value is particularly tough to define. MLB.com's Mark Feinsand took a look at six of them Thursday, including catcher Yasmani Grandal.

 

The backstop was one of the most valuable players in the National League during 2019, producing 5.2 Wins Above Replacement, per FanGraphs. He accomplished that after joining the Brewers on a one-year, $16 million contract with a $16 million mutual option ($2.25 million buyout) for 2020, which he's expected to decline.

 

Grandal is ineligible for the qualifying offer after rejecting one from the Dodgers last year, and he could be viewed as a more attractive free agent this offseason with no Draft-pick compensation requirements attached to him.

 

However, he'll soon turn 31 years old, and in the view of one NL talent evaluator, his market may ultimately depend on his own contract demands after he reportedly rejected a four-year, $60 million deal from the Mets last offseason.

 

“His best- and worst-case scenario hinges more on him and his ego than anything that the marketplace will determine,” the exec said. “Not much changed this year than was the case last year. He’s the same player, only a year older. There comes a point in time when you have to cash in.”

 

Ego! These people! Like the amount of ego it takes to even say that for print...Grandal's a great fit for this team all around. Contreras remains my favorite trade candidate, adds a high OBP switch hitter post-Zobrist, ups the defense at a high value defensive position, and as good as Amaya might be he's all of 21 so I'm all for a "platoon" at the position for his ages 22-24 if not traded

 

Grandal would be great, but I can't see the Cubs spending that much money on a position of strength when there's so many holes to fill.

[Post Count Padder]

Along with Cesar Hernandez, Jonathan Villar is another second base candidate I wouldn't mind. Both could be non-tendered due to their projected arb price tags around 9-10 mil.

[Bertz]

I was looking at Adam Frazier from the Pirates. They're probably gonna tear it down, and he's starting to make money in arb, so he could probably be had for a modest price. Strong contact guy, good defender at 2B, appears to be able to fake it in the OF as well. I'd absolutely love a bench of Happ, Vic, Frazier, Bote, and someone who can mash against lefties.

[Cubswin11]

I was looking at Adam Frazier from the Pirates. They're probably gonna tear it down, and he's starting to make money in arb, so he could probably be had for a modest price. Strong contact guy, good defender at 2B, appears to be able to fake it in the OF as well. I'd absolutely love a bench of Happ, Vic, Frazier, Bote, and someone who can mash against lefties.

Yeah I like Frazier a lot. He compliments things and adds to the weaknesses really well.

[Cubswin11]

I don't think Villar gets non-tendered since contenders will be interested and the O's can probably get a good lower minors prospect for him. The prospects I'd prefer the Cubs not trade, very very important to follow for sure, are mostly at those levels after Amaya and Ademan: Davis (Lindor, please), Gallardo, Jensen, Martinez, and Quintero. Villar seems like a decent support pickup so someone like Pinango, Roederer, or RH pitching depth (Thompson, Miller, Mills, Sanders, Franklin, etc) could be good for the Cubs. Probably the O's ask for more or at least should, not sure the Cubs should be interested after that

I wouldn’t be interested in giving up any of those names for Villar and I’m just not interested in him in general. There’s as good or better dudes available who won’t cost as much (either money or prospect capital). He’s projected for almost $11 mil in arbitration, that’s 1/3-1/2 of our expected available funds. Hard pass.

[Bertz]

I was looking at Adam Frazier from the Pirates. They're probably gonna tear it down, and he's starting to make money in arb, so he could probably be had for a modest price. Strong contact guy, good defender at 2B, appears to be able to fake it in the OF as well. I'd absolutely love a bench of Happ, Vic, Frazier, Bote, and someone who can mash against lefties.

 

The problem with Frazier right off the bat is going to be the trade cost, especially in division. You'd end up paying a superstar's trade package to get the ages 29-32 seasons of a solid but unspectacular 2B (being sent to the bench?). Develop guys like Frazier or maybe luck into a FA or claim and don't trade for them at full retail price

 

I think you are overestimating what 2nd division starter types cost. These are the guys for whom the market has really bottomed out the last 3-4 years. A guy like Frazier probably costs one of the guys you suggested for Villar, and a guy like Villar (assuming no one thinks he's actually a 4 WAR GUY) is more likely to be non tendered than net a top 10-15 prospect.

[Bertz]

I think you are overestimating what 2nd division starter types cost. These are the guys for whom the market has really bottomed out the last 3-4 years. A guy like Frazier probably costs one of the guys you suggested for Villar, and a guy like Villar (assuming no one thinks he's actually a 4 WAR GUY) is more likely to be non tendered than net a top 10-15 prospect.

 

Full context: he's an established starter at what's been deemed a position of need (if the Cubs are making this trade) still in his 20s, isn't a FA until 2023, and being traded between division rivals including a perennial WS contender. I think you're way underselling what the Pirates would ask

 

Sure, if they ask too much they ask too much, but I see no reason to assume they will until we hear that they already have. If they do, you move onto one of the many comparable options:

 

Brian Dozier

Jonathan Villar

Cesar Hernandez

Scooter Gennett

Brock Holt

Ben Zobrist?

 

And that's assuming Howie Kendrick has earned a starting role and isn't an option. I like Frazier because I think he's the best of these guys by a small margin, and the best fit for us by a large margin, but these guys don't usually cost a lot because there's not a ton to differentiate them from a half dozen other guys.

[Cubswin11]

Big fan of Anderson and would pay up some decent prospects for him if he was available. I thought he would’ve been an excellent add for us during the year before he got injured.

[Backtobanks]

I was looking at Adam Frazier from the Pirates. They're probably gonna tear it down, and he's starting to make money in arb, so he could probably be had for a modest price. Strong contact guy, good defender at 2B, appears to be able to fake it in the OF as well. I'd absolutely love a bench of Happ, Vic, Frazier, Bote, and someone who can mash against lefties.

 

The problem with Frazier right off the bat is going to be the trade cost, especially in division. You'd end up paying a superstar's trade package to get the ages 29-32 seasons of a solid but unspectacular 2B (being sent to the bench?). Develop guys like Frazier (looking at you, Andy Weber!) or maybe luck into a FA or claim, don't trade for them at full retail price

 

I'll stick with my trade proposal of Contreras, Almora, Short, and Norwood for Marte, Frazier, and Kela.

[Bertz]

He's been brought up before (by TT?), but I'm looking at Wil Myers right now and he's a very interesting option. Even in a down year he mashed against lefties, and his poor defensive numbers are mostly from the Padres hilariously bad plan to play him in CF. He's still fine at 1B/COF.

 

What's more interesting though is that he may provide an opportunity to essentially buy a young starter at a position of need. Myers is owed 3/67.5 on his deal, and a separate rumor is also that the Padres are shopping guys like Luis Urias and Adrian Morejon this winter. If we did something along the lines of Chatwood for Myers and Morejon, we'd only add ~1M in LT money this season, while adding a RH masher for the bench and a high end ML ready pitching prospect to be our presumptive 5th starter. I'd want to further balance the deal to make 2021 and 2022 less onerous from a payroll standpoint (i.e. Myers' deal is underwater by more than just a Morejon), but this would be an interesting way to fill two holes on the 2020 roster while mostly keeping the powder dry for other moves.

 

One additional wrinkle with Myers is that his contract was extremely front loaded, so while he is still owed $67.5M in real dollars, it's only $41.5M from a LT standpoint. Given that with the Padres payroll is low enough that they only care about real dollars, and that the Cubs care more about the LT, that assymetry would make a deal even more attractive for both sides (think similar to last year's Russell Martin trade). There are certainly limits to how much we could ignore cashflow in favor of LT figures, and Myers is a big enough outlier that he's likely beyond those limits, but overall it would still help facilitate a deal.

[Cubswin11]

He's been brought up before (by TT?), but I'm looking at Wil Myers right now and he's a very interesting option. Even in a down year he mashed against lefties, and his poor defensive numbers are mostly from the Padres hilariously bad plan to play him in CF. He's still fine at 1B/COF.

 

What's more interesting though is that he may provide an opportunity to essentially buy a young starter at a position of need. Myers is owed 3/67.5 on his deal, and a separate rumor is also that the Padres are shopping guys like Luis Urias and Adrian Morejon this winter. If we did something along the lines of Chatwood for Myers and Morejon, we'd only add ~1M in LT money this season, while adding a RH masher for the bench and a high end ML ready pitching prospect to be our presumptive 5th starter. I'd want to further balance the deal to make 2021 and 2022 less onerous from a payroll standpoint (i.e. Myers' deal is underwater by more than just a Morejon), but this would be an interesting way to fill two holes on the 2020 roster while mostly keeping the powder dry for other moves.

 

One additional wrinkle with Myers is that his contract was extremely front loaded, so while he is still owed $67.5M in real dollars, it's only $41.5M from a LT standpoint. Given that with the Padres payroll is low enough that they only care about real dollars, and that the Cubs care more about the LT, that assymetry would make a deal even more attractive for both sides (think similar to last year's Russell Martin trade). There are certainly limits to how much we could ignore cashflow in favor of LT figures, and Myers is a big enough outlier that he's likely beyond those limits, but overall it would still help facilitate a deal.

I’d rather re-sign Castellanos I think than get Myers and take on his money commitment the next 2 years after this. I also kind want to keep Chatwood and see what he does as a RP this year. I don’t thinks it’s all that important to find a deal to move him unless we are getting the money savings this year and moving forward.