2020 roster

[Bertz]

I'm entirely baffled by how Q is in the top 30 of starter WAR (fangraphs), his numbers look so damn pedestrian. But then, so does everyone elses, thats the juiced ball for you

 

He got BABIP'd pretty hard plus the juiced ball made it so that the league average ERA was 4.51 this year

[muntjack]

Without a big splash, I'd just prefer

 

Darvish

Hendricks

Q

Lester

Chatwood

 

Pivetta just seems like a younger Chatwood with double the HR rate. I wouldn't mind him as insurance in AAA, I suppose.

[champaignchris]

How much would a Jake Odorizzi/Wade Miley/Ivan Nova/Tanner Roark type really cost for a couple years? 2 years, $25MM?

 

I’m frankly more concerned with Lester than I am with the Chatwood/Mills/Alzolay slot. Over the last three seasons he’s gone through stretches where he just didn’t have it.

 

And with several years in a row now of declining results, I’m afraid the eye-test might be more predictive of Quintana’s next season than fWAR. There’s a bit of an Edwin Jackson c. 2014 thing going on here, where the stuff and the peripherals aren’t adding up to the expected results. At some point, you’re not getting BABIP’ed to death because of bad luck - You’re getting BABIP’ed to death because it’s easy to get hits off you.

 

I think constructing the 2020 pitching staff around the assumption that Quintana and Lester - and Kimbrel for that matter - are all going to bounce back is a big mistake. I’d like to have someone else around who can get 150 innings just in case and then be a bridge to the future after Lester, Quintana and Chatwood are all gone after 2020.

[Backtobanks]

2 deals to ponder:

 

Contreras, Almora, Short, and Underwood to Pittsburgh for Marte, Frazier, and Kela.

 

Bote and Chatwood to Texas for Leclerc and Mazara.

[Cubswin11]

How much would a Jake Odorizzi/Wade Miley/Ivan Nova/Tanner Roark type really cost for a couple years? 2 years, $25MM?

Something like that, maybe like 3/30. There’s so many guys that have similar value to the names you listed I wouldn’t be surprised if they cost less. There’s also, Keuchel, Chacin, Bumgarner, Hamels, Hill, Wacha, Gibson, Gio, Lyles, and I’m sure I’m missing a few that all seem to be in that same bucket to me. When you also consider there’s Cole, probably Strasburg and Wheeler that will take decent years and money, some of those others guys are going to be able to be had for real cheap given the high supply of them.

[Bertz]

And with several years in a row now of declining results, I’m afraid the eye-test might be more predictive of Quintana’s next season than fWAR. There’s a bit of an Edwin Jackson c. 2014 thing going on here, where the stuff and the peripherals aren’t adding up to the expected results. At some point, you’re not getting BABIP’ed to death because of bad luck - You’re getting BABIP’ed to death because it’s easy to get hits off you.

 

Not really sure this tracks when you only have to go as far back as 2018 to see him outperform his FIP thanks to a low BABIP

[Bertz]

Bradley's a solid option for CF, but he has to come as a ton tender IMO. He's set to make $10M+ via arb this winter, and he's too limited and our budget too tight to justify that.

 

Another guy on the Bosox I find intriguing is Nate Eovaldi. I generally like him as a bounceback candidate, and with the Red Sox trying desperately to get below the LT I wonder if we could get some relief help in exchange for taking on his salary. Something like Eovaldi and Matt Barnes for not too much in prospects? Gives us a pitching staff of:

 

SP - Yu, Kyle, Q, Jon, Eovaldi

 

CP - Kimbrel

SU - Barnes, Wick

MR - Ryan, Wieck, Chatwood, Underwood

LR - Mills

 

What's nice about Eovaldi specifically is that even if he continues to struggle as a starter like he did in 2019, he's still a fairly safe fallback option in relief (he had a 2.61 FIP on relief this year). I would then probably trade Chatwood at that point and reinvest the 13 million.

[ChiCubsFan]

How do we fit Gerrit Cole into the budget?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

How do we fit Gerrit Cole into the budget?

 

By getting the next one. Jon Gray is the obvious parallel that could be available.

[Cubswin11]

How do we fit Gerrit Cole into the budget?

 

By getting the next one. Jon Gray is the obvious parallel that could be available.

Yup, he’s probably my #1 realistic target this offseason of FA or trade option. We should have the right pieces to get him (whether it’s minor leaguers but none of the main ones in Davis, Amaya, Marquez, Nico types or major leaguers like Willy/Vic, Happ, Bote). They’re also trying to cut payroll and his ARB estimate is around $7 mil.

[Sammy Sofa]

Cole is going to be Beast Mode wherever he goes, and whatever "next Cole" that Cubs try to pull out of their ass will have their shoulder explode into a Bloomin' Onion mid-game. YOU KNOW THAT'S HOW THIS WILL GO.

[minnesotacubsfan]

Cole is going to be Beast Mode wherever he goes, and whatever "next Cole" that Cubs try to pull out of their ass will have their shoulder explode into a Bloomin' Onion mid-game. YOU KNOW THAT'S HOW THIS WILL GO.

 

COUNTERPOINT: ARRIETA

[minnesotacubsfan]

How do we fit Gerrit Cole into the budget?

 

By getting the next one. Jon Gray is the obvious parallel that could be available.

 

does Gray pitch in the upper 90's?

[Sammy Sofa]

Cole is going to be Beast Mode wherever he goes, and whatever "next Cole" that Cubs try to pull out of their ass will have their shoulder explode into a Bloomin' Onion mid-game. YOU KNOW THAT'S HOW THIS WILL GO.

 

COUNTERPOINT: ARRIETA

 

COUNTERCOUNTERPOINT: EVERYTHING ELSE.

 

And besides, Jake or the "next Cole" are the guys an org like this is supposed to have the pieces/smarts to go and get AND they flex and land the big monsters like Cole.

Edited October 8, 2019 by Sammy Sofa

[Cubswin11]

Yu was basically Cole in the 2nd half

[Sammy Sofa]

Yu was basically Cole in the 2nd half

 

So having two of them would be a good thing?

[squally1313]

Yu was basically Cole in the 2nd half

 

So having two of them would be a good thing?

 

And also in one more start and 14 more innings, Cole put up 4.1 WAR in the second half vs Yu's 2.5 WAR, so..."basically" is doing a lot of work there. Yu was great, and the most fun I've had watching a Cubs pitcher since Jake's run, but...Cole (and Verlander and Flaherty) was/were on a different planet.

[Cubswin11]

Yu was basically Cole in the 2nd half

 

So having two of them would be a good thing?

Non tender Q, sign Cole and trade for Gray and we can have 3.

[Cubswin11]

Yu was basically Cole in the 2nd half

 

So having two of them would be a good thing?

 

And also in one more start and 14 more innings, Cole put up 4.1 WAR in the second half vs Yu's 2.5 WAR, so..."basically" is doing a lot of work there. Yu was great, and the most fun I've had watching a Cubs pitcher since Jake's run, but...Cole (and Verlander and Flaherty) was/were on a different planet.

I had no idea Cole was so good in the second half, more was saying Yu in the 2nd half was basically Cole for the season.

[Tim]

Low(ish) Cost offseason

 

1) If they can't be traded, non-Tender Russell & Almora to save $5M

2) Move on from: Cishek, Hamels, Strop, Kintzler, Zobrist, Phelps, Cedeno, Barnette, Lucroy, Morrow, Holland

 

3) Sign Will Smith

4) Sign Castellanos

5) Sign Gennett (should be a low-ish cost signing after lousy year, with upside)

6) Sign Brock Holt

7) Trade Happ, Alzolay, Uelman to Colorado for Gray + McGee (taking on the salary to make it happen)

 

 

 

SP) Darvish

SP) Gray

SP) Hendricks

SP) Quintana

SP) Lester

 

SP Depth) Graveman/Chatwood/Mills

 

RP) Kimbrel

RP) Smith

RP) McGee

RP) Ryan

RP) Wick

RP) Graveman/Chatwood/Mills

RP) Graveman/Chatwood/Mills

 

2B) Gennett

RF) Castellanos

3B) Bryant

1B) Rizzo

SS) Baez

LF) Schwarber

C) Contreras

CF) Heyward

 

B) Caratini

B) Kemp

B) Descalso

B) Bote

B) Holt

 

 

I actually like the relatively low-key additions to the offense with Castellanos, Gennett and Holt. I think it gives the team a lot of different looks against opposing pitchers and a lot of flexibility off the bench - especially when you include Hoerner replacing Descalso once he's released mid-year.

 

I'd like to upgrade the starters more than this, but I'm not sure how to do it on a budget.

 

The relievers have the real potential to sink an otherwise solid team. They'd need Wick & probably Wieck to emerge as reliable options. It would also really help if another arm or two developed quickly into solid relief options instead of spending another $5-10M in free agent additions.

 

--------

 

If the team wanted to add another $20M to the budget by trading Q for a cost-controlled reliever and adding Cole, I'd be much happier!

[Deeg]

7) Trade Happ, Alzolay, Uelman to Colorado for Gray + McGee (taking on the salary to make it happen)!

 

I think you’d have to take Colorado’s entire payroll to get them to agree to that deal.

[d_money]

Maples needs to make the step and be dominant next year.

[squally1313]

Is McGee just for salary purposes? Because he hasn't been good in two years. If you want to pick up salary, just grab Ian Desmond and let him crush lefties in left field.

[ConstableRabbit]

That would be cool but how is that a low cost offseason? lol

[Transmogrified Tiger]

That would be cool but how is that a low cost offseason? lol

 

Yeah that stretches past the realm of likely limitations the team is going to have, by at least 10 million, I'd say.