5/15 Cubs (Darvish) @ Reds (Gray) 5:40 CST WGN

[cubscott34]

After another great win, the Cubs closed the gap ever so slightly on the Reds league leading ERA. It now stands at 3.35 for the Reds and 3.38 for the Cubs. Meanwhile, thanks to the man-god that is The Professor, the Reds saw their already league worst team batting average drop even further to .214 and their putrid team OPS drop to .675.

 

Let's look at some other meaningless stats...

 

Since starting 2-7, the Cubs have gone 23-7 for a .767 winning percentage. Translated over a full season, that would be equal to roughly a 124 win pace. Even more, despite starting out the season with 6 losses in the their first 7 games, the Cubs now have fewer losses than any other team in baseball, and, percentage wise, have the best record in the NL, second only to the Astros in all of baseball. Lastly, before the season started, the Cubs' odds of making the playoffs stood at 64.2%, with a 47.4% chance to win the division. On April 14th, the Cubs odds of making the playoffs stood at a paltry 38.5%, with a 26.1% chance of winning the division. Presently, those odds are now 85.1% and 64.3%, respectively. #wearehorsefeathersgood

 

With the good news out of the way, its time for the bad news...

 

Yu Darvish is pitching game two against the Reds. However, before we simply give up, do know that Yu has never lost to the Reds in his career and owns a 1.93 ERA against them in 3 starts. Nonetheless, on the opposite side, Sonny Grey's numbers are a bit misleading as his peripherals suggest he's been the second best starter for the Reds so far this year behind Castillo and has already contributed 1 WAR, despite the 4.15 ERA.

 

I suspect the Cubs will need the offense to wake up a little more for this one, and, in the end, the dongmasters will ultimately prevail.

 

Go Cubs, hit dongs, score runs, dump Russell. That is all.

[UK]

It's going to be rough to watch this offense without Contreras tonight.

 

The potential of frustration between watching Darvish and the top of the next inning consisting of Almora, Descalso, and Schwarber will be elevated tonight.

[Sammy Sofa]

Winning games is always good, but the Cobs' offense scares the hell out of me right now in a bad, bad way.

[Bote McBoteface]

I dont like it when Yu Darvish pitches.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The Cubs need to play at an 89 win pace the rest of the year to stay ahead of the current 2nd place pace (92 wins). They need to play at a 94 win pace to stay ahead of last year's 1st place pace (95 wins).

[The_Achiever]

Sonny Gray sucks. Bomb his ass.

[HawkeTrackler]

When Yu Darvish pitches, I think to myself: "no"

[squally1313]

They did it. They found the worst lineup.

 

[Cubswin11]

Get Happ up here you idiots, that 4-9 is a black horsefeathering hole. Or get Trader Dipoto on the phone and work out a Haniger trade.

[squally1313]

Get Happ up here you idiots, that 4-9 is a black horsefeathering hole. Or get Trader Dipoto on the phone and work out a Haniger trade.

4-1*. Need one of those KB games.

[Sammy Sofa]

OK, now I'm on the "send Rizzo to the IL" train. What the hell.

[Brian]

That might be the worst lineup a team with a .641 winning percentage could put out.

[Cubswin11]

OK, now I'm on the "send Rizzo to the IL" train. What the hell.

Nah, he’ll play tomorrow and probably tweak, sit out Friday then try and play the next 2 weeks before finally being IL’d. That’s how Gryzlo rolls.

[Cubswin11]

[CubInOK]

The Cubs should just designate a long reliever on Darvish day like the Rays do every game.

[Andy]

OK, now I'm on the "send Rizzo to the IL" train. What the hell.

Same horsefeathers that happened last year with him.

 

Is it as common with other teams to intentionally shorten their bench by refusing to put them on the injured list as it is with us? I swear we have a 'on roster but unplayable' player in like 60% of our games the last year-plus.

[Andy]

The Cubs should just designate a long reliever on Darvish day like the Rays do every game.

Montgomery hasn't pitched since the last Darvish day, I have to think he's ready for another lengthy outing.

[Cubswin11]

The Cubs should just designate a long reliever on Darvish day like the Rays do every game.

They pretty much said Monty is going to do this moving forward.

[Sammy Sofa]

OK, now I'm on the "send Rizzo to the IL" train. What the hell.

Same horsefeathers that happened last year with him.

 

Is it as common with other teams to intentionally shorten their bench by refusing to put them on the injured list as it is with us? I swear we have a 'on roster but unplayable' player in like 60% of our games the last year-plus.

 

It's right up there with, "we used to shift a ton and it worked great, but then inexplicably we knocked it WAY down for reasons," as the new market inefficiency.

[squally1313]

OK, now I'm on the "send Rizzo to the IL" train. What the hell.

Same horsefeathers that happened last year with him.

 

Is it as common with other teams to intentionally shorten their bench by refusing to put them on the injured list as it is with us? I swear we have a 'on roster but unplayable' player in like 60% of our games the last year-plus.

 

It's right up there with, "we used to shift a ton and it worked great, but then inexplicably we knocked it WAY down for reasons," as the new market inefficiency.

 

Well assuming you're talking about 2016, we were 29th in shifts that year at 4.6%, only ahead of the Marlins, who I'm guessing didn't even teach the concept. Since then we've gone 29th, 28th, and this year we're at 23rd, 14.2%. Astros are somehow at 50% for the year.

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/visuals/team-positioning?teamId=117&venue=home&firstBase=0&shift=1&batSide=&season=2016

[Brian]

[tweet]

[/tweet]

 

Javy should switch hit in a late season game where both teams have clinched or been eliminated.

[Sammy Sofa]

Same horsefeathers that happened last year with him.

 

Is it as common with other teams to intentionally shorten their bench by refusing to put them on the injured list as it is with us? I swear we have a 'on roster but unplayable' player in like 60% of our games the last year-plus.

 

It's right up there with, "we used to shift a ton and it worked great, but then inexplicably we knocked it WAY down for reasons," as the new market inefficiency.

 

Well assuming you're talking about 2016, we were 29th in shifts that year at 4.6%, only ahead of the Marlins, who I'm guessing didn't even teach the concept. Since then we've gone 29th, 28th, and this year we're at 23rd, 14.2%. Astros are somehow at 50% for the year.

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/visuals/team-positioning?teamId=117&venue=home&firstBase=0&shift=1&batSide=&season=2016

 

Man, I never know this horsefeathers; I'm just piggybacking on other people here smarter than me who keep complaining like the Cubs stopped shifting as much or got shitty at it or whatever.

[bcl412]

I have a feeling you is gonna not walk a bunch of people but instead give up a bunch of hits and comments like “well at least he’s throwing strikes” or “at least he hasn’t walked anyone” will be made. Or he will last 4 innings and we will win by 4 or something

[minnesotacubsfan]

I have a feeling you is gonna not walk a bunch of people but instead give up a bunch of hits and comments like “well at least he’s throwing strikes” or “at least he hasn’t walked anyone” will be made. Or he will last 4 innings and we will win by 4 or something

 

 

if he throws strikes our team era will continue to drop

 

 

IF

[squally1313]

 

It's right up there with, "we used to shift a ton and it worked great, but then inexplicably we knocked it WAY down for reasons," as the new market inefficiency.

 

Well assuming you're talking about 2016, we were 29th in shifts that year at 4.6%, only ahead of the Marlins, who I'm guessing didn't even teach the concept. Since then we've gone 29th, 28th, and this year we're at 23rd, 14.2%. Astros are somehow at 50% for the year.

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/visuals/team-positioning?teamId=117&venue=home&firstBase=0&shift=1&batSide=&season=2016

 

Man, I never know this horsefeathers; I'm just piggybacking on other people here smarter than me who keep complaining like the Cubs stopped shifting as much or got horsefeathers at it or whatever.

 

Trust me, it surprised me too. Obviously this is subject to how they define shifts, which is 'three infielders on one side of second base'...which doesn't seem too controversial. Honestly I don't remember being too enamored with that kind of shifting back then, or thinking we were leading the pack on it. I remember being really impressed with Rizzo's bunt defense and throwing behind runners, which are things I think we all kinda take for granted now.

 

I honestly don't know what led to the historic BABIP beyond luck. We had the second lowest hard hit %, but it wasn't some outlier. I think it was just a young, uber athletic, very defensively talented team combined with pitchers good at getting soft contact.