BA, BP, Fangraphs, Keith Law & MLB Pipeline's Cubs' Top Prospects List

[Cubswin11]

In Keith Law's rankings Amaya came in at 91 and Hoerner came in at 110

Here's what he said about Amaya and Hoerner...

 

The lone Cub on the list or even particularly close to it, Amaya struggled as an 18-year-old in the advanced short-season Northwest League in 2017, putting up a .266 OBP. But another year of growth had him a different player in the full-season Midwest League, where he hit .256/.349/.403 and threw out 41 percent of opposing runners. Amaya is an offensive catcher, perhaps a future average defender with a plus arm, but a potential 55-grade hitter with average power and a solid idea of the strike zone. He has to continue to get stronger, if only for durability. He slugged .478 before the major league All-Star break but hit .198 with a .223 slugging percentage after it, which isn't surprising for a 19-year-old at a very demanding position, but it's a clear area for improvement.

 

Amaya has a very simple swing and approach, with a direct path to the ball, good balance through contact and enough loft for 15-plus-homer power, perhaps more if he gets stronger than expected. He will turn 20 in March, so there's risk here, but right now, he looks like a solid everyday catcher with a high floor as a quality backup.

 

Hoerner is more of a skills guy than a tools guy, as the Cubs' first-round pick in 2018 out of Stanford doesn't have a six anywhere on his scouting report. He's probably going to end up at second base, although his instincts are so good he might beat the odds and stay at short, and he's an elite baserunner who looks like he's going to steal bases at a very high success rate. Questions about his position and his history of running short at-bats (and thus not walking much for a guy without power) kept him off the 100.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Keith Law is at all times being the Keith Lawiest he can be.

[imb]

Keith Law is at all times being the Keith Lawiest he can be.

 

what do you disagree with in that assessment

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Keith Law is at all times being the Keith Lawiest he can be.

 

what do you disagree with in that assessment

 

Most of what he says about Hoerner, except for the part that basically contradicts itself. But that's part of the charm, it's nothing that's indefensible or you can't logic your way to, it's just that he talks like a normal prospect analyst that decided to use Kyle as a spokesperson.

[jersey cubs fan]

https://twitter.com/keithlaw/status/1090738244554235909

[Cubswin11]

The Amaya write up sounds a bit like Willy as a comp

[Hairyducked Idiot]

https://twitter.com/keithlaw/status/1090738244554235909

 

He said it, not me

[imb]

Lmao go read his chat today and count how many times he answered an honest question with some rude [expletive] answer (or twitter slang a 40 year old single dad prospect expert) shouldn’t be using.

 

I know you have to be somewhere on the spectrum to receive money to talk about baseball prospects but god this guy sucks

[Regular Show]

The Amaya write up sounds a bit like Willy as a comp

 

No. Willy has better overall tools and is a much better athlete. Better arm, more power, more speed, more batspeed, etc.

 

I wouldn't use Willy as a comp for Amaya. I like Amaya, but his high ceiling will be achieved if he becomes a better receiver/defender than Contreras. I seriously doubt he'll develop a better bat, and I think the second-half of last season was a fluke for Willy.

Edited January 31, 2019 by Regular Show

[Regular Show]

Lmao go read his chat today and count how many times he answered an honest question with some rude [expletive] answer (or twitter slang a 40 year old single dad prospect expert) shouldn’t be using.

 

I know you have to be somewhere on the spectrum to receive money to talk about baseball prospects but god this guy sucks

 

To be fair, he gets asked a lot of dumb questions and some people hate him for not having their favorite team's prospects ranked higher. Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel have to put up with this crap too over at Fangraphs. They're not as mean and/or snarky in their chats, but I'm sure they get frustrated as well.

 

PS -- I have not read today's chat lol. I'll go read it later.

[CubsWin]

The Amaya write up sounds a bit like Willy as a comp

 

No. Willy has better overall tools and is a much better athlete. Better arm, more power, more speed, more batspeed, etc.

 

I wouldn't use Willy as a comp for Amaya. I like Amaya, but his high ceiling will be achieved if he becomes a better receiver/defender than Contreras. I seriously doubt he'll develop a better bat, and I think the second-half of last season was a fluke for Willy.

I agree with you on Amaya's offensive ceiling being lower than Willy's and that he's not the athlete Willy is, but he may already be a better receiver/framer and his arm isn't far behind.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Law is the only guy around saying Amaya's offense is ahead of his defense.

[Regular Show]

The Cubs' fall from farm system grace has been abrupt, sped by graduations and the trades of two elite prospects (Gleyber Torres and Eloy Jimenez) for pitching help, as well as worse results in the drafts since they began picking toward the end of the first round. There may not be a starting pitching prospect in the system who projects as more than a No. 5 starter, and without last year's draft class there's only one position player prospect who projects as a regular.

 

Keith Law rates the Cubs' farm system 29th with only horsefeathering Baltimore having a worse system. He rated it 25th last year. I think it's a little higher than that, but it's definitely in the bottom third of farm systems in MLB.

 

We give some criticism to Theo for trading away some top prospects and other notable prospects here and there, but I'm surprised how little flak Jason McLeod gets around here. If you're going to criticize Theo (and Jed) for the state of the farm system right now then you should also rip McLeod IMO.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

I don’t have Premium but I believe this is Keith Law’s Cubs Top 10 Prospects:

 

1. Amaya

2. Hoerner

3. Marquez

4. Alzolay

5. Davis

6. Roederer

7. Ademan

8. de la Cruz

9. Uelman

10. Swarmer

 

That 8-10 sure is different.

[Tim]

I was with him through the first seven

[d_money]

The Cubs' fall from farm system grace has been abrupt, sped by graduations and the trades of two elite prospects (Gleyber Torres and Eloy Jimenez) for pitching help, as well as worse results in the drafts since they began picking toward the end of the first round. There may not be a starting pitching prospect in the system who projects as more than a No. 5 starter, and without last year's draft class there's only one position player prospect who projects as a regular.

 

Keith Law rates the Cubs' farm system 29th with only horsefeathering Baltimore having a worse system. He rated it 25th last year. I think it's a little higher than that, but it's definitely in the bottom third of farm systems in MLB.

 

We give some criticism to Theo for trading away some top prospects and other notable prospects here and there, but I'm surprised how little flak Jason McLeod gets around here. If you're going to criticize Theo (and Jed) for the state of the farm system right now then you should also rip McLeod IMO.

I agree - McLeod has gotten a free pass. After hearing about the focus on drafting pitching - and continue to hear that the pitching is “on its way” - the results at the big league level have not shown.

 

The possibility that McLeod may leave to be the GM elsewhere used to concern me. I no longer have that feeling. He’s free to go.

[Bertz]

I don’t have Premium but I believe this is Keith Law’s Cubs Top 10 Prospects:

 

1. Amaya

2. Hoerner

3. Marquez

4. Alzolay

5. Davis

6. Roederer

7. Ademan

8. de la Cruz

9. Uelman

10. Swarmer

 

That 8-10 sure is different.

 

7-10 is a little jumbled. Here's the full list:

 

1. Miguel Amaya

2. Nico Hoerner

3. Brailyn Marquez

4. Adbert Alzolay

5. Brennen Davis

6. Cole Roederer

7. Matt Swarmer

8. Aramis Ademan

9. Oscar De La Cruz

10. Erich Uelmen

11. Alex Lange

12. Tyson Miller

13. Yovanny Cruz

14. Justin Steele

15. Keegan Thompson

16. Brendon Little

17. Thomas Hatch

18. Michael Rucker

19. Duncan Robinson

20. Nelson Velazques

[Regular Show]

The Cubs' fall from farm system grace has been abrupt, sped by graduations and the trades of two elite prospects (Gleyber Torres and Eloy Jimenez) for pitching help, as well as worse results in the drafts since they began picking toward the end of the first round. There may not be a starting pitching prospect in the system who projects as more than a No. 5 starter, and without last year's draft class there's only one position player prospect who projects as a regular.

 

Keith Law rates the Cubs' farm system 29th with only horsefeathering Baltimore having a worse system. He rated it 25th last year. I think it's a little higher than that, but it's definitely in the bottom third of farm systems in MLB.

 

We give some criticism to Theo for trading away some top prospects and other notable prospects here and there, but I'm surprised how little flak Jason McLeod gets around here. If you're going to criticize Theo (and Jed) for the state of the farm system right now then you should also rip McLeod IMO.

I agree - McLeod has gotten a free pass. After hearing about the focus on drafting pitching - and continue to hear that the pitching is “on its way” - the results at the big league level have not shown.

 

The possibility that McLeod may leave to be the GM elsewhere used to concern me. I no longer have that feeling. He’s free to go.

 

Totally agree. I've listened to him in interviews and didn't come away impressed. I don't know exactly how much blame to lay on McLeod, but I think he's done a poor job as scouting director and/or the guy mostly in charge of the amateur draft for the Cubs. It doesn't sound like he's in danger of losing his job or getting demoted, but the pitchers we've selected in the draft have consistently disappointed since 2012.

[Bertz]

I find it hard to complain about McLeod when the totality of his drafts and signing periods has been pretty stellar. More balance would obviously be nice, but dumping him because he can't develop pitchers would seem to be a real "throwing out the baby with the bathwater" situation.

[Regular Show]

I find it hard to complain about McLeod when the totality of his drafts and signing periods has been pretty stellar. More balance would obviously be nice, but dumping him because he can't develop pitchers would seem to be a real "throwing out the baby with the bathwater" situation.

 

To be fair to McLeod and the Cubs' scouting department, their track record will look better if Dylan Cease gets promoted to the big leagues and does well. Same thing for Justin Steele.

 

Also, Zack Godley was a late round draft pick and he's developed into a decent starter. That was a great pick/signing.

[Bertz]

I find it hard to complain about McLeod when the totality of his drafts and signing periods has been pretty stellar. More balance would obviously be nice, but dumping him because he can't develop pitchers would seem to be a real "throwing out the baby with the bathwater" situation.

 

Agreed with this and would argue that the pitching, while not obvious yet, is moving in the right direction with more physical talent in the system than at any point under this FO. It’s probably more complicated than an outright inability to develop pitching - a mix of priorities, spending limits, and the perrenially very short supply of actual high quality/impact pitching in existence at all levels combined are probably big factors.

 

Absolutely. I think priorities is a great way of saying it. Lange and Little are the highest picks they've used on pitchers by a fairly wide margin. And most impact starters come through the very top of the draft.

 

Also agreed that the pitching in the system now is moving in the right direction. I think 2019 is the year we start getting legit help in the bullpen from the farm, and 2020 for starters.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

I don’t have Premium but I believe this is Keith Law’s Cubs Top 10 Prospects:

 

1. Amaya

2. Hoerner

3. Marquez

4. Alzolay

5. Davis

6. Roederer

7. Ademan

8. de la Cruz

9. Uelman

10. Swarmer

 

That 8-10 sure is different.

 

7-10 is a little jumbled. Here's the full list:

 

1. Miguel Amaya

2. Nico Hoerner

3. Brailyn Marquez

4. Adbert Alzolay

5. Brennen Davis

6. Cole Roederer

7. Matt Swarmer

8. Aramis Ademan

9. Oscar De La Cruz

10. Erich Uelmen

11. Alex Lange

12. Tyson Miller

13. Yovanny Cruz

14. Justin Steele

15. Keegan Thompson

16. Brendon Little

17. Thomas Hatch

18. Michael Rucker

19. Duncan Robinson

20. Nelson Velazques

 

Thanks!

[CaliforniaRaisin]

John Sickels resurfaced at The Athletic. He put out his top 100 list: https://theathletic.com/808011/2019/02/11/john-sickels-top-100-prospects-for-2019/

 

89) Miguel Amaya, C, Chicago Cubs, (Grade B): Age 19, hit .256/.349/.403 with 12 homers in A-ball; good defender who could be excellent in time; power took a step forward and he controls zone reasonably, giving breakout potential as a prospect; ETA 2021.

 

95) Nico Hoerner, SS, Chicago Cubs, (Grade B): Age 21, first rounder in 2018 from Stanford, hit .327/.450/.571 in 49 AB between Rookie ball and Single-A; very impressive in Arizona Fall League; excellent plate discipline with touches of speed and power; ETA 2021.

[David]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/MinorLeagueBall/status/1094994972632367106[/tweet]

[Hrubes20]

Some of it may be deference to this FO's success in drafting 1st round college bats, but I don't recall any other recently drafted players taken in the range of Nico that debuted in the top 100 of a national publication the next year. I mean, Ian Happ was taken 9th overall in 2015 and was only ranked 87th by BA before the 2016 season. Pretty impressive.