BA, BP, Fangraphs, Keith Law & MLB Pipeline's Cubs' Top Prospects List

[Tim]

Some of it may be deference to this FO's success in drafting 1st round college bats, but I don't recall any other recently drafted players taken in the range of Nico that debuted in the top 100 of a national publication the next year. I mean, Ian Happ was taken 9th overall in 2015 and was only ranked 87th by BA before the 2016 season. Pretty impressive.

I think it's partially that and partially how impressive he was in the AFL

[Regular Show]

Some of it may be deference to this FO's success in drafting 1st round college bats, but I don't recall any other recently drafted players taken in the range of Nico that debuted in the top 100 of a national publication the next year. I mean, Ian Happ was taken 9th overall in 2015 and was only ranked 87th by BA before the 2016 season. Pretty impressive.

 

I'll have to go back and look, but most players don't go to the AFL the same year they're drafted. I think it's draft pedigree and not wanting "recency bias" to play a part in these evaluations.

 

The people making these lists wonder how good could this player really be if 20+ players were taken ahead of them in the most recent draft. Has that player really jumped ahead of those higher draft picks (enough to warrant being on a top 100 prospect list) in such a short time? Like I'm not certain Nico Hoerner is a better prospect than Alec Bohm. He's certainly performed and hit at a higher level.

[Hrubes20]

Some of it may be deference to this FO's success in drafting 1st round college bats, but I don't recall any other recently drafted players taken in the range of Nico that debuted in the top 100 of a national publication the next year. I mean, Ian Happ was taken 9th overall in 2015 and was only ranked 87th by BA before the 2016 season. Pretty impressive.

 

I'll have to go back and look, but most players don't go to the AFL the same year they're drafted. I think it's draft pedigree and not wanting "recency bias" to play a part in these evaluations.

 

The people making these lists wonder how good could this player really be if 20+ players were taken ahead of them in the most recent draft. Has that player really jumped ahead of those higher draft picks (enough to warrant being on a top 100 prospect list) in such a short time? Like I'm not certain Nico Hoerner is a better prospect than Alec Bohm. He's certainly performed and hit at a higher level.

 

Do some of the national guys have him ahead of Bohm?

[Regular Show]

Some of it may be deference to this FO's success in drafting 1st round college bats, but I don't recall any other recently drafted players taken in the range of Nico that debuted in the top 100 of a national publication the next year. I mean, Ian Happ was taken 9th overall in 2015 and was only ranked 87th by BA before the 2016 season. Pretty impressive.

 

I'll have to go back and look, but most players don't go to the AFL the same year they're drafted. I think it's draft pedigree and not wanting "recency bias" to play a part in these evaluations.

 

The people making these lists wonder how good could this player really be if 20+ players were taken ahead of them in the most recent draft. Has that player really jumped ahead of those higher draft picks (enough to warrant being on a top 100 prospect list) in such a short time? Like I'm not certain Nico Hoerner is a better prospect than Alec Bohm. He's certainly performed and hit at a higher level.

 

Do some of the national guys have him ahead of Bohm?

 

http://insider.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/25877678/keith-law-top-prospects-2019

 

Not sure about the other national guys, but Keith Law has Hoerner ranked #110. I just looked at his Top 100 list and Alec Bohm isn't on there so he must have Hoerner ranked ahead of Bohm now. He's probably not too far behind him.

[David]

BP has him 86th and MLB.com has him at 100

[Cubswin11]

Sickels (now at the Atheltic) has Amaya at 89 and Nico at 95 on his top 100. Roederer was on the sleepers/beyond 100.

[David]

Sickels (now at the Atheltic) has Amaya at 89 and Nico at 95 on his top 100. Roederer was on the sleepers/beyond 100.

You shouldn't even bother trying to beat Raisin at his game

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Fangraphs Top 100: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-top-100-prospects/

 

73. Miguel Amaya

105. Nico Hoerner

119. Aramis Ademan

[CubsWin]

Not a fan of Jim Bowden, but FWIW he's putting out a top 200 list on The Athletic. So far, he's published 101-200. Looks like Amaya will be the only Cub in his top 100. Here are the Cubs listed thus far. (He seems to think Cole Roederer didn't play last year, so let that be an indicator of the quality of his work...)

 

188. Cole Roederer, OF, Chicago Cubs

Age: 19 Height: 6-0 Weight: 176 Bats: L Throws: L

Scouting Grades

ARM: 45 FLD: 50 HIT: 45 PWR: 55 RUN: 50

 

Stats: Did not play pro ball.

 

Roederer was the Cubs’ supplemental second-round pick this past year out of California’s Hart High School, and the team is excited about his future. He’s a decent center fielder with average running speed, but it’s his power at the plate that caught Chicago’s eye: He profiles out to be a 20-home-run center fielder.

179. Brailyn Marquez, LHP, Chicago Cubs

Age: 20 Height: 6-4 Weight: 188 Bats: L Throws: L

Scouting Grades

FB: 55 SLI: 45 CH: 45 CTL: 45 CMND: 40

 

Stats (A) W-L: 1-4 ERA: 3.13 IP: 54.2 H: 53 BB: 16 SO: 59

 

Marquez throws 95-97 mph from the left side with a work-in-progress breaking ball and changeup. He does not have command of his pitches yet but with mechanical adjustments and a more consistent release point that should improve over the next year or two. You certainly can’t argue the arm.

137. Nico Hoerner, SS, Chicago Cubs

Age: 21 Height: 6-1 Weight: 199 Bats: R Throws: R

Scouting Grades

ARM: 50 FLD: 45 HIT: 55 PWR: 45 RUN: 55

 

Stats (Rookie/A) Slash: .327/.450/1.021 2B: 2 HR: 2 BRI: 6 SB: 6

 

The Cubs have always been great at drafting bats; they have some of the best amateur hitting scouts in the business. Hoerner appears to be another solid one, and there’s no doubt he’s going to hit. Hoerner is average or below defensively at shortstop, where he doesn’t have ideal range, but largely makes up for it with positioning, angles and first-step quickness. He does have a solid average arm for the position.

[David]

The Cubs have always been great at drafting bats;

 

go back about 7 or 8 years and imagine this being said

[Regular Show]

Not a fan of Jim Bowden, but FWIW he's putting out a top 200 list on The Athletic. So far, he's published 101-200. Looks like Amaya will be the only Cub in his top 100. Here are the Cubs listed thus far. (He seems to think Cole Roederer didn't play last year, so let that be an indicator of the quality of his work...)

 

Yeah, I saw the link for the article online, but it's from Jim Bowden so why bother?

 

He's a joke inside the industry. Part of the older generation of execs that nobody wants to hire anymore.

[David]

Not a fan of Jim Bowden, but FWIW he's putting out a top 200 list on The Athletic. So far, he's published 101-200. Looks like Amaya will be the only Cub in his top 100. Here are the Cubs listed thus far. (He seems to think Cole Roederer didn't play last year, so let that be an indicator of the quality of his work...)

 

Yeah, I saw the link for the article online, but it's from Jim Bowden so why bother?

 

He's a joke inside the industry. Part of the older generation of execs that nobody wants to hire anymore.

Oh thanks for letting us know

[CaliforniaRaisin]

A couple surprises in BA’s top 30 are Luis Verdugo at 12 and Edmond Americaan at 16. They think both have more power and the defensive tools to stick at SS and CF respectively, with Americaan also having plus speed. They speculate Americaan might get a South Bend assignment, which would be nice.

 

Their 30 isn’t particularly daring with guys like Leal, Herron, J. Young (listed as a 1B!), and DJ Wilson feeling more like filler rather than actual prospects. I guess in most cases you’re stretching the definition of prospect to fill out this system’s 30 but, for instance, I don’t get why Mekkes couldn’t get more mention than Leal

 

Man, I didn’t even bother ordering the handbook this year and just realized I hadn’t. BA has really slipped.

[CubsWin]

Yeah, unfortunately, Jared Young is a 1B/LFer. I don't know where else he would be listed.

 

The Cubs have apparently moved on from him playing 2B. He played 2 games at 2B last year, 21 in left and 81 at 1st. It's possible they did that to get his bat in the lineup more consistently (he also DH'd some), but it's not like 2B was a position loaded with good prospects in South Bend and Myrtle Beach such that they didn't want to take games away from other guys.

 

FWIW, the limited numbers we have for him at 2B in the minors (3.45 RF, .966 fielding %) say he's pretty much a butcher.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel came up with a list of players they expect to make the 2020 Top 100 list. When they did this exercise before the 2018 season, they went 18 for 63.

 

One Cub made the list - Cole Roederer in the Under the Advanced Young Bats with Defensive Value section. I was surprised Brailyn Marquez didn't make the Teenage Pitchers section.

 

Also, they listed potential high-leverage relievers who might debut this year and while they might not ever be top 100 prospects, they will have a sizable impact on their team. Dakota Mekkes made this Potentially Dominant Relievers list.

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/picks-to-click-who-we-expect-to-make-the-2020-top-100/

[CaliforniaRaisin]

MLB Pipeline's Top 30 is out: http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2019?list=chc

 

1. Miguel Amaya

2. Nico Hoerner

3. Brailyn Marquez

4. Adbert Alzolay

5. Cole Roederer

6. Aramis Ademan

7. Brennen Davis

8. Justin Steele

9. Cory Abbott

10. Keegan Thompson

11. Zack Short

12. Alex Lange

13. Brendon Little

14. Richard Gallardo

15. Nelson Velazquez

16. Yovanny Cruz

17. Thomas Hatch

18. Paul Richan

19. Tyson Miller

20. Trent Giambrone

21. Reivaj Garcia

22. Oscar de la Cruz

23. Jose Albertos

24. Dakota Mekkes

25. Duane Underwood Jr

26. Christopher Morel

28. Riley Thompson

28. Luis Verdugo

29. Jhonny Pereda

30. Andy Weber

[Regular Show]

[tweet]

[/tweet]

Wow, the Top 10 list from 2011 is depressing as hell.

 

Hayden Simpson...

 

[CubsWin]

MLB Pipeline's Top 30 is out: http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2019?list=chc

 

1. Miguel Amaya

2. Nico Hoerner

3. Brailyn Marquez

4. Adbert Alzolay

5. Cole Roederer

6. Aramis Ademan

7. Brennen Davis

8. Justin Steele

9. Cory Abbott

10. Keegan Thompson

11. Zack Short

12. Alex Lange

13. Brendon Little

14. Richard Gallardo

15. Nelson Velazquez

16. Yovanny Cruz

17. Thomas Hatch

18. Paul Richan

19. Tyson Miller

20. Trent Giambrone

21. Reivaj Garcia

22. Oscar de la Cruz

23. Jose Albertos

24. Dakota Mekkes

25. Duane Underwood Jr

26. Christopher Morel

28. Riley Thompson

28. Luis Verdugo

29. Jhonny Pereda

30. Andy Weber

This is one of the better Cubs top 30 lists in a while from MLB. Normally, they're head scratchers.

 

Maybe it's because there's so much vaguery after the top 4 right now that you can pretty much make an argument for just about anybody in any order (within reason) after that...

[CubsWin]

I mean, Swarmer and Estrada are in my top 30, but I can't make a definitive argument for them over who was listed. I can make a good one, but not definitive. So much clarity is lacking on who some of these guys really are and what they can become right now. It should make for an interesting year following a comparatively weak system.

 

There is a lot of upside in this group compared to recent years. Marquez, Roederer, Davis, Ademan, Gallardo, Cruz, Thompson, Morel, Albertos, not to mention some not listed like Estrada, Correa, Franklin, Americaan, Pertuz, etc. It'll be fun tracking them.

 

But there's also a lot of BOR guys that still have a lot of questions to answer. How does Swarmer's stuff play at the upper levels? Will Lange's change up become consistently plus? Are the seasons Tyson Miller and Cory Abbott had last year for real or will they struggle in AA? Will Little finally fulfill the potential the Cubs saw in him? Who the heck is the real Erick Leal? Can Bailey Clark stay healthy and join Mekkes as a legit relief prospect? Can Craig Brooks? Can Trevor Clifton be an effective ML BOR? Can Underwood?

 

If just a few of those questions are answered positively, it would be a fruitful season. Ah, hope springs eternal in the minor leagues. I think that's why I like following so much.

[Bear Cub]

I think Morel is the dude that will go up the list by next year, but what do I know!

[Regular Show]

I think Morel is the dude that will go up the list by next year, but what do I know!

 

For sure. A lot of scouts and people inside the Cubs organization like Morel. Wouldn't surprise me to see him higher next year, especially if Alzolay graduates.

 

It is a solid list. I like Swarmer and Estrada a lot also. Swarmer more as a RP down the road. Estrada has the stuff to be a middle of the rotation starter if it all comes together.

 

I'm really down on Jose Albertos and Oscar de la Cruz. I think they might be off next year's list. Last thing, I'm glad D.J. Wilson is finally off the list because he sucks (great tools though). I hope Davis isn't the next D.J. Wilson. Brennen Davis is the better athlete and has superior tools.

[craig]

Don't think Morel is going to make it, unfortunately. Has some appealing qualities. But guys who can't hit never make it; hitting is a gift that if lacking is never learned. Morel was 29/0 K/BB at Eugene in 91 AB.

[CubsWin]

I like Swarmer and don’t see how say, Thompson and Miller, are better prospects

Yeah, me too. But that's the thing with the Cubs system right now. The guys 10-20 aren't clearly better than guys around 30-35. You can make the argument that Swarmer's two-pitch mix is more effective than Thompson's 5 pitch mix. But you can also say that Thompson has a greater chance of being a starter and that gives him more value than a two-pitch reliever. It's all in the eye of the beholder right now and on a top 30 list, you gotta rank them somewhere. Hopefully after this season there will be more clarity.

 

I think sometimes with top 30 lists, experts who have to do them for all the teams can sometimes rely on draft pedigree. Thompson and Miller were drafted in the 3rd and 4th rounds, respectively, while Swarmer was much later (19th). I don't know...

[CubsWin]

Yeah, me too. But that's the thing with the Cubs system right now. The guys 10-20 aren't clearly better than guys around 30-35. You can make the argument that Swarmer's two-pitch mix is more effective than Thompson's 5 pitch mix. But you can also say that Thompson has a greater chance of being a starter and that gives him more value than a two-pitch reliever. It's all in the eye of the beholder right now and on a top 30 list, you gotta rank them somewhere. Hopefully after this season there will be more clarity.

 

I think sometimes with top 30 lists, experts who have to do them for all the teams can sometimes rely on draft pedigree. Thompson and Miller were drafted in the 3rd and 4th rounds, respectively, while Swarmer was much later (19th). I don't know...

 

Couple things I disagree with:

 

- Prospects in the 30-35 range are almost definitely going to be lower quality than the 10-20 guys. The majority of that 10-20 is easy to justify over guys who'd rank nearly 20 spots lower. Swarmer is more the exception than the rule even for where this system is. They're going to have less pedigree than a Lange, Gallardo, or even 2nd round pick Richan and 3rd rounder Miller. No one's going to have as much of a pro track record as a Short with his power/speed/defense playing at AA. Guys in the same age range won't have been as recognized as Velazquez or Cruz so far as pros. Can't really think of a guy they skipped hard on, maybe Estrada but no one knows what happened to his 2018

 

- The case for Swarmer over Thompson is a pretty easy one to make. Swarmer's 2018 was a little better - more dominant in High A (more Ks, fewer HRs) and better in AA - and he's the more physically talented of the two. He's bigger and has more room to physically improve, already throws harder, and has both the more deceptive and athletic delivery (doesn't struggle to repeat or throw strikes with). Both guys are going to give up HRs, if they make it to the majors, as they're flyball pitchers who haven't been great at keeping the ball in the park as pros. Swarmer's seem more likely to be solo HRs since he was harder to hit (Thompson gave up more than a H/IP making the leap to AA) and walked fewer batters. I'm not even sure Thompson actually has 5 effective pitches either, and definitely couldn't say what his top two pitches are like with Swarmer.

You are certainly welcome to disagree, and your reasoning is sound, but it kinda proves my point a bit.

 

The folks at MLB disagree with both you and I on Swarmer. He didn't make their top 30. And whereas we are two incredibly intelligent Cubs prospect experts, whoever put their list together can't exactly be an idiot. And yet, here we are.

 

I'd have Swarmer around 20, they had him lower than 30. I think that's because after the top 10 or so in this system right now, they're a lot of guys with high-ish floors but low ceilings or guys with upside who are totally unproven, or guys with upside coming off of injury, etc. such that they could be reasonably ranked in a variety of different orders.

[Guancous]

John Sickels updated his top 100 list over at The Athletic.

 

Miguel Amaya moves up from 89 to 87. Nico Hoerner goes from 95 to 81.

 

https://theathletic.com/941047/2019/04/24/john-sickels-updated-top-100-prospects-list/