2018 AFL

[Regular Show]

[tweet]

[/tweet]

 

Fastest runner

Cristian Pache, OF, Braves

The Fall League seems to have more well above-average runners than usual, which helps explain why teams are averaging 1.5 stolen bases per game this fall, up from 0.9 in 2017. There's no true consensus as to who has the best speed in the Fall League, but Pache earns as many 65-70 grades on the 20-80 scouting scale as anyone. He's still learning to steal bases after getting caught eight times in 15 regular-season attempts and swiping just one bag in his first 13 AFL games, but his quickness definitely plays in center field.

 

Others considered: Buddy Reed, OF, Padres; Lucius Fox, SS, Rays; Taylor Trammell, OF, Reds; Luis Robert, OF, White Sox; Estevan Florial, OF, Yankees; Luis Barrero, OF, Athletics; Julio Pablo Martinez, OF, Rangers.

 

No mention of Nico among the fastest runners in the AFL. So that doesn't mean he's slow or below-average in terms of running; just not among the most elite runners in the AFL (according to Jim Callis). On a good note, Nico is mentioned in the "others considered" for Best Hitter.

 

Vlad Jr. won Best Hitter and Best Power (no surprise there). Nate Pearson won Best Fastball.

[toonsterwu]

I ... don't know if I care all that much about Nico's speed. Law's usually not going to that far off the walls, so I'd guess he either caught Nico on a bad day, or that Nico made some poor runs. Speed and baserunning aren't exactly the same thing, and Law's comments were about him being a below-average runner. That said, put it this way - I just don't think Nico's speed is going to end up being the breaking point of whether he's a major leaguer or not.

 

Not an issue to quibble over, but I think a positive case for Giambrone is more Todd Walker than Mike Fontenot, as I think he might have a bit more pop than Fontenot ever consistently had.

[Hrubes20]

I ... don't know if I care all that much about Nico's speed. Law's usually not going to that far off the walls, so I'd guess he either caught Nico on a bad day, or that Nico made some poor runs. Speed and baserunning aren't exactly the same thing, and Law's comments were about him being a below-average runner. That said, put it this way - I just don't think Nico's speed is going to end up being the breaking point of whether he's a major leaguer or not.

 

Not an issue to quibble over, but I think a positive case for Giambrone is more Todd Walker than Mike Fontenot, as I think he might have a bit more pop than Fontenot ever consistently had.

 

That's actually a pretty good point. And considering it was only a few months ago pre-draft that Law himself stated Hoerner had above average speed, that makes much more sense than Law now trying to claim that he has below average speed. I guess I just assumed all the "baseball instincts" and "baseball smarts" talk included his work on the bases. That could have been a poor assumption.

[Tedward]

From the Athletic ....

 

Player of the Week: Nico Hoerner, SS, Cubs

60 AB, 21 H, 7 R, 2 2B, 1 3B, HR, 8 RBI (14 games)

 

With their top pick for 2018, the Chicago Cubs opted for the bat of Stanford University shortstop Nico Hoerner and it hasn’t taken long this fall season to see what made him so attractive.

 

“I like him a lot,” Lou Marson said. “To be honest, he’s my favorite player on this team.”

 

The 6-1 shortstop jumped three levels in his first summer with the Cubs organization, ending the year with Class-A South Bend.

 

Although he wasn’t known for home run power in college — hitting a total of 10 dingers over his three-year career in the Pac-12 — he’s shown some raw pop at the plate since arriving in Mesa.

 

With speed as his selling tool, Hoerner makes good use of his body and his defense has caught Marson’s attention.

 

“He’s a very good shortstop,” Marson said. “He makes all the routine plays and has great back speed. The Cubs have a good player. I think that I see him moving through the system very quickly, especially as a college guy. Great kid, works hard. His instincts on the bases are unbelievable as well.”

 

“He’s an all-around player,” Marson continued. “Really falls in the dirt, stealing bases, he’s a good kid.”

[Hrubes20]

That's actually a pretty good point. And considering it was only a few months ago pre-draft that Law himself stated Hoerner had above average speed, that makes much more sense than Law now trying to claim that he has below average speed. I guess I just assumed all the "baseball instincts" and "baseball smarts" talk included his work on the bases. That could have been a poor assumption.

 

Regardless of Hoerner, a player looking less or more impressive after the draft is not uncommon given the dramatic leap in pool size (all of pro baseball) and competition

 

Again, not with something as objective as speed. It's quantifiable and competition has zero effect. The only way someone could drop from above average to below average in speed in only a few months is due to injury or insane weight gain. Or the evaluator just did a terrible job.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

And The Athletic says speed is Nico’s selling tool:

Player of the Week: Nico Hoerner, SS, Cubs

60 AB, 21 H, 7 R, 2 2B, 1 3B, HR, 8 RBI (14 games)

 

With their top pick for 2018, the Chicago Cubs opted for the bat of Stanford University shortstop Nico Hoerner and it hasn’t taken long this fall season to see what made him so attractive.

 

“I like him a lot,” Lou Marson said. “To be honest, he’s my favorite player on this team.”

 

The 6-1 shortstop jumped three levels in his first summer with the Cubs organization, ending the year with Class-A South Bend.

 

Although he wasn’t known for home run power in college — hitting a total of 10 dingers over his three-year career in the Pac-12 — he’s shown some raw pop at the plate since arriving in Mesa.

 

With speed as his selling tool, Hoerner makes good use of his body and his defense has caught Marson’s attention.

 

“He’s a very good shortstop,” Marson said. “He makes all the routine plays and has great back speed. The Cubs have a good player. I think that I see him moving through the system very quickly, especially as a college guy. Great kid, works hard. His instincts on the bases are unbelievable as well.”

 

“He’s an all-around player,” Marson continued. “Really falls in the dirt, stealing bases, he’s a good kid.”

[stitchface]

sounds like it's falling in the dirt . . .

[Hrubes20]

Again, not with something as objective as speed. It's quantifiable and competition has zero effect. The only way someone could drop from above average to below average in speed in only a few months is due to injury or insane weight gain. Or the evaluator just did a terrible job.

 

Pitcher velocities pre- and post- draft can and often do swing all the time, and that’s more easily defined than speed

 

When considering speed in a baseball context, it's exactly as identifable as pitching velocity. One uses a radar gun, the other a stopwatch. Or Statcast for both. Just because one is defined more often does not mean that another is less identifable. But you're smarter than to make this argument. You know that pitching velocity can be altered by about a million mechanical things, as well as arm health and such. The same does not apply to speed. Name one 21 year old who not only got slower, but TWO levels slower, in 4 months without sustaining injury or gaining a ton of weight? It just doesn't happen. That's why I think toonster's mention is probably spot on. Law surely wasn't talking about speed, but the all-encompassing "baserunning". There have been plenty of players that had insticts and IQ off the charts in other aspects of the game, but weren't good baserunners.

[Hrubes20]

And The Athletic says speed is Nico’s selling tool:

Player of the Week: Nico Hoerner, SS, Cubs

60 AB, 21 H, 7 R, 2 2B, 1 3B, HR, 8 RBI (14 games)

 

With their top pick for 2018, the Chicago Cubs opted for the bat of Stanford University shortstop Nico Hoerner and it hasn’t taken long this fall season to see what made him so attractive.

 

“I like him a lot,” Lou Marson said. “To be honest, he’s my favorite player on this team.”

 

The 6-1 shortstop jumped three levels in his first summer with the Cubs organization, ending the year with Class-A South Bend.

 

Although he wasn’t known for home run power in college — hitting a total of 10 dingers over his three-year career in the Pac-12 — he’s shown some raw pop at the plate since arriving in Mesa.

 

With speed as his selling tool, Hoerner makes good use of his body and his defense has caught Marson’s attention.

 

“He’s a very good shortstop,” Marson said. “He makes all the routine plays and has great back speed. The Cubs have a good player. I think that I see him moving through the system very quickly, especially as a college guy. Great kid, works hard. His instincts on the bases are unbelievable as well.”

 

“He’s an all-around player,” Marson continued. “Really falls in the dirt, stealing bases, he’s a good kid.”

 

Yeah at this point we have to give Law the benefit of the doubt in that he was talking about overall baserunning, and not just speed. Literally everyone else who has seen him play pre-draft and post-draft agrees that he has really good speed.

[CubsWin]

Yeah, and Statcast isn't perfect either. I mean that guy isn't running in a straight line out there. How are those computers supposed to tell? You simply cannot accurately identify the speed of a two different moving objects. Baseballs are round and small. Human beings are a completely different shape and much, much larger when you measure them.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

The Fall Stars Game is tonight at 7 pm on MLB Network. Nico Hoerner and Bailey Clark will be playing but neither is starting.

[Cubswin11]

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Bailey Clark is now in the game.

[CubsWin]

Bailey Clark is now in the game.

And getting rocked.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Nico smacks a line single up the middle off Jordan Sheffield in his first at bat.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Bailey Clark is now in the game.

And getting rocked.

 

I was disappointed with FB velocity only being in the 94-96 range in a short burst. And thought his infield defense could’ve helped limit some of that damage.

[CubsWin]

Bailey Clark is now in the game.

And getting rocked.

 

I was disappointed with FB velocity only being in the 94-96 range in a short burst. And thought his infield defense could’ve helped limit some of that damage.

Yeah he was throwing some heat but not well commanded tonight. Almost threw two over the mitt of the catcher who had to jump up and make nice athletic plays to get them. He also left several FBs over the heart of the plate that got hit hard. He's been better. Maybe had some butterflies.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

https://twitter.com/jasonpennini/status/1058849199448420352?s=21

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[Hrubes20]

When considering speed in a baseball context, it's exactly as identifable as pitching velocity. One uses a radar gun, the other a stopwatch. Or Statcast for both. Just because one is defined more often does not mean that another is less identifable. But you're smarter than to make this argument. You know that pitching velocity can be altered by about a million mechanical things, as well as arm health and such. The same does not apply to speed. Name one 21 year old who not only got slower, but TWO levels slower, in 4 months without sustaining injury or gaining a ton of weight? It just doesn't happen. That's why I think toonster's mention is probably spot on. Law surely wasn't talking about speed, but the all-encompassing "baserunning". There have been plenty of players that had insticts and IQ off the charts in other aspects of the game, but weren't good baserunners.

 

No, a pitcher throws a ball more often than one individual batter offers a situation where their speed can be measured in a game. In a given amateur game you’re probably seeing 100+ pitches from a half decent pitcher as opposed to, on a lucky day, a handful of times not all usable. Then you’re dealing with more possibility for human error with hand timed stopwatches.

 

Which is why you get a 4.1-4.2 range (to account for human error) and why statcast can get it more accurately. You only need a handful of times in this range to tell a player's speed, since you can quickly eliminate the times when the player slipped or stumbled coming out of the box. It's identifiable very quickly and does not fluctuate like pitching velocity. You should probably just stop comparing running speed and pitching velocity anyway. They really are two completely different animals.

 

I found several videos of Hoerner running from Home to 1st both at Stanford and in the minors. Using my phone's stopwatch, I got between 4.03 and 4.21 every time, with most coming just below or over that 4.1 figure which is what was being reported by Cubs Den.

 

Yeah, and Statcast isn't perfect either. I mean that guy isn't running in a straight line out there. How are those computers supposed to tell? You simply cannot accurately identify the speed of a two different moving objects. Baseballs are round and small. Human beings are a completely different shape and much, much larger when you measure them.

 

I'm not sure if you are being sarcastic or not, but Statcast provides a computer stopwatch from home to first that takes the human element away. It's very accurate and functions much the same as an official time in an olympic race or the timing of the 40 yd dash at the NFL combine. While the path may not be exactly the same each time, a player busting down the line is not going to veer off course by much.

 

Oh yeah, going with Law on Hoerner’s speed. He was handily caught stealing but also I found his lower body to be a little less twitchy and/or projectable than playing against lesser comp made it seem.

 

So you are using amateur subjective opinion as an argument against objective fact? Yikes. The lesser comp argument also holds zero stock for something that can be calculated, such as speed. If anything a player runs FASTER against better competition. You've chosen a really bad hill to die on.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

 

 

[CaliforniaRaisin]

[Cubswin11]